XZero771679666304

And there were a ton of people openly questioning Prince's longevity, and much of the opinion I heard/read was "He and Boras are asking for 8-10 years, but they'll end up with 6-7". The deal in its totality was a surprise. So let's set aside the 15MM+ number for a moment. Like it or not, Brett Jackson's presence impacts how much interest the Cubs would have in Upton, for clear reasons. They are players with similar skill sets who play the same position. Upton is not the caliber or player that you jump on regardless of who you have waiting in the wings. Neither's bats would likely be adequate on the corners long term. Considering those things, at what price point would you be out on Upton?

I'm not a huge fan of Upton. I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per. No. B.J. Upton is not getting a contract closing in Soriano territory unless he comes off of a monster year, and even then it's a stretch. I'm not sure, in this market. As we found out with Fielder, it only takes one dumb team with deep pockets. But with Fielder there was all kinds of hype about how he was going to get a monster deal. I don't see that happening with Upton. I wouldn't say there's a negative perception of him around baseball, but he definitely has a a lower profile when he didn't turn out to be the stud everyone thought he was. I don't think anyone thought Prince would actually get nine years. And Upton is a polarizing player. There are segments that wouldn't touch him, but there are segments that see him as an elite talent that simply needs a change of scenery. If even a couple of teams in the latter camp are interested, you might be surprised at where the bidding goes, especially in this market of over payment.

I'm not a huge fan of Upton. I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per. No. B.J. Upton is not getting a contract closing in Soriano territory unless he comes off of a monster year, and even then it's a stretch. I'm not sure, in this market. As we found out with Fielder, it only takes one dumb team with deep pockets.

I'm not a huge fan of Upton. I'm also confident some team will give him north of 15MM per. If we could get him for a decent price, I'd be for it. But I don't think we need two guys who are .750 OPS, contact challenged, low OBP (Jackson & Upton, though I think BJax might out-OBP Upton) in the same OF. I see Bjax and Upton as being guys who provide decent value in CF, but wouldn't on the corners. I also don't have a hard time seeing Jackson approximating Upton's production, and for a fraction of the cost. Brett isn't as good a defender and probably won't steal 40 bags (though 20+ is certainly a possibility). I just don't see a $15MM difference between the two. If this were 2008 I'd say there would be no way you pass over B.J., but this isn't 2008. Of course what we see out of Brett this year could reinforce or change my opinion.

If it's Jackson at minimum or Upton @ 15MM+ per year I'm taking Jackson. They look to be similar players (hit for moderate power, low average, take walks and strike out a ton), at least similar enough I wouldn't overpay for Upton.

Cespedes, Darvish, Wilson and, to a lesser degree, Pujols, though "haunt" is a really loaded word. I think it's unfortunate they missed out on all of them and basically started from the bottom up when they didn't have to, especially when they can't throw nearly as much money into drafting and IFA as it's clear they were hoping/intending to. I agree with that. I don't think really competing this year was in the cards, but Darvish/Cespedes would have been nice, young and relatively inexpensive (minus the posting fee) pieces to add going forward. I also really hate the posting/sealed bidding system, but that's another issue.

HUGE middle ground you're glossing over there. And also pretty intellectually dishonest to act like all of those things are as likely as relying on prospects and IFA hampered by the new CBA or trades. I don't think Pujols continuing to fade or Cespedes flopping are more unlikely than the next five years totally blowing up in Theo's face. Give two really sharp guys the resources of a large market team and I'll put my money on them finding success over Albert defying father time. There's FA, IFA, trades and the amateur draft to work with. And if you really look at what we missed out on this offseason, how much of it do you really feel will haunt us? Personally, my angst over the Pujols/Fielder "misses" was greatly alleviated by the Rizzo trade (which I don't see happening if the team were truly trying to compete in 2012). Darvish/Cespedes were the only two that still eat at me, and you can only really blame Theo/Jed for the latter and I'm only 50/50 on whether the former will pan out. As TT has pointed out in the past, we would have needed multiple star acquisitions to make the 2012 squad a legit contender, and I'm not sure signing Pujols to marginally bolster (Pujols was a 5 WAR player last year and Pena was a 2 WAR player, does that upgrade really help all that much?) our 2012-2014 chances would have been worth assuming diminishing returns on that huge contract down the line. Who would you feel more confident about being a 5 WAR player 4-5 years from now, Pujols or Rizzo? I'm not so sure. To feel really good about competing this year, we'd likely have had to add Pujols, Cespedes, one of Darvish/Wilson, retained Ramirez for multiple years and kept Marshall and probably Cashner (Marmol/Wood were an are huge question marks). And all those moves would have simply put us in the pack with STL/MIL/CIN. You can definitely argue for and against that scenario being beneficial long term or more or less risky than the route taken. Most of us would opt for that scenario, but I'd bet mostly for reasons of instant gratification rather than prospects of long term success. After some thought, I've come to believe that there probably wasn't a likely way to go into 2012 as a strong contender and add the pieces that were added. But I do think we can go into 2013 as at least a borderline contender from the place the team is now.

Well of course there's a good shot the team is bad next year. But there's a shot the team will be a lot better, a huge chance moves will be made that no one here is anticipating and a near certainty the lack of FA spending this year doesn't portend a lack of FA spending next year and into the future. Saying it's not a stretch that things won't work out over the next several years is an absurdly obvious thing to say. The whole thing could go to hell in a handbasket. But it's not a stretch so think Pujols could continue his downward trend, Fielder's body could fail him and Darvish/Cespedes could flop. Signing some or all of those guys would have been no guarantee of positive long term results, either. Not by a longshot. The roster Theo & Jed inherited was swiss cheese at best and while I'm not the least bit enthused about enduring a lost season, I see clear logic in blowing it up and understand doing so is not remotely locking us into multiple years of non-contention.

Come on. There has been no shortage of people here who responded to this offseason with an emotional "we're going to have to endure 3-4 years of being bad" attitude. It's reactionary nonsense, or "freaking out" in my book.

I don't think anyone has argued that this is the preferred method, just that it can be done. Yeah, and in part as a counter to some of the knee jerk "OMG WE DIDN'T SIGN ANY BIG NAME FAs IT'S GONNA BE 5 YEARS BEFORE WE'RE GOOD AGAIN" nonsense that has gone on. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and not going big in free agency this offseason absolutely does not mean we're in for 3-4 years of rebuilding. Oh goody, more insulting people who wanted the front office to try. GMAFB. I wanted them to "go for it" more in 2012, but I also see logic in why they have gone the route they have. I'm disappointed, but I also understand it isn't a go full bore immediately or rebuild for years proposition. Some people just had a scenario in their heads regarding how this offseason should play out and when it didn't, they freaked out. Frankly if people are looking at the situation in absolute terms, they probably deserve to be derided.

I don't think anyone has argued that this is the preferred method, just that it can be done. Yeah, and in part as a counter to some of the knee jerk "OMG WE DIDN'T SIGN ANY BIG NAME FAs IT'S GONNA BE 5 YEARS BEFORE WE'RE GOOD AGAIN" nonsense that has gone on. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and not going big in free agency this offseason absolutely does not mean we're in for 3-4 years of rebuilding.

I stand corrected. I suppose I just place a premium on efficiency.

Am I off base here? I may be, but I recall having this debate a few years ago when the environment wasn't that much better and that seemed to be the consensus.

Who? He gets stealing at a 24% clip, which is borderline but not bad particularly since he's stealing 40+ bases a year. Fangraphs has him a positive base runner this whole time... Not sure what kind of contract he'll sign at all precisely because he's such a polarizing talent. People see low batting average and high K's and run from there, especially since he came up with tons of hype and had such a great 2007. Personally I've seen him a ton and looked over the numbers and I see a multi-skilled CF who can provide some pop, play defense, steal bases, and has some patience. Seeing as he's still young (27 this year) I can see him having some strong offensive seasons moving forward outside of that park. I call him the new Mike Cameron..just a quietly solid above average CF with the body type/athleticism/youth to do it for a long time. Do think the shoulder f'd him up enough that there's no shot he becomes a high end player anymore. 24% isn't borderline. It's bad. 15-20% is about as high as you want to get before you reconsider stealing bases. Stealing 40 doesn't look too hot when you're getting caught 12-15 times. He had one year that was acceptable. His stolen bases are not a check in the positive column for Upton, unless you're into counting stats above all else. And I've heard a few analysts call him overrated. Brian Kenney did a segment on Clubhouse Confidential where he examined Upton and categorized him as an "average" player. There are more, use google. He is a polarizing player, but at this point I think he is what he is. I'm also convinced some team will give him 15-17MM per, which is just way too much.

Is that the consensus that it's playing like a pitchers park? Or just to LF? I heard someone predicting that they'll end up moving in the fences within two seasons. You'd think they'd have learned something from Citi Field.

fafu = free agent [expletive] up? I like it Amusing, but Wells is looking like hot garbage in AAA as well.

Stewart is one unlucky mofo.

Upton is actually a pretty patient hitter, his OBP has just been getting dragged down by poor batting averages. He had an .086 IsoD in 2007 (his best offensive year) and IsoDs of .072, .085, and .088 the past 3 seasons. If you could figure out a way to get that average up some, he'd be a really good OBP guy for you. On that note, his BABIPs have seemed pretty low the past 3 seasons. His career BABIP is .327, but the past 3 seasons it's been .310, .304, and .298. My first thought was that he must be hitting the ball softer, but his LD% those seasons are right in line with his career 17.6% - 15.4 in 2009, 16.6 in 2010, and 18.3 in 2011. I'm not quite sure what to make of that. 2009 makes sense, but it seems like his numbers should have been better the past couple of years, it seems. Has he just gotten unlucky the past couple of years and is a candidate to turn it around, or at this point do we just assume he's going to be BABIP-unlucky for whatever reason? He's clearly patient, just not enough to offset the low AVG. A guy like Adam Dunn (pre-2011) could get by hitting .230-.250 without having it impact his overall value because he walked a ton. Upton isn't quite there, and I'm not sure you can expect him to tack 20 or 30 points of average on at this point in his career.

Yes, he looked like an elite talent in '07. Since then he's settled into being a 4 fWAR CF who can steal bases, hit for some pop, and play defense. Not sure how that's overrated, but maybe you just kinda remember him from '07, see he hasnt been quite as pretty since, and therefore must now overrated? Not to mention he plays in a pretty crappy run scoring environment. Also stealing bases at a 76% clip is within the range of fine. That plus he's signing as a CF, not a COF with whoever signs him. I'm not the only one out there who is calling him overrated. I've heard several statistical analysts call him such. And he gets caught stealing so often, his running is actually a negative. Most years he gets caught about a third of the time he runs. That's really bad. He's not a bad player, but he's going to get a contract that outstrips his value. And that being the case, why would we have interest when we have a similar player on the verge who will cost a fraction of what Upton will?

I think it depends on who you talk to. He's a pretty polarizing player as far as perception goes. I'd be really happy to have him on the team, but I think he'll end up getting overpaid by someone. He is a great defensive CF and hits a fair number of homers, but he doesn't get on base well and gets caught stealing way too much. He'd be great as a CF for a reasonable price, but his bat won't play at the corners, Jackson is coming and some team is going to pay Upton a ton. I can't think of a good reason the Cubs would want to get in on that.

Yeah, B.J. Upton is totally underrated. Are you kidding me? He's overrated, still coasting on his 2007 rep, and some team is going to give him far more than he's worth.

So what's the extreme "best case" ETA for Baez? Second half of 2014? 2015? The idea of a core of Castro, Rizzo, Baez and Jackson makes me feel warm and fuzzy.

I think I have a new favorite prospect. He may end up being one of those "I love him, but if he wasn't on my team I'd hate his guts" guys.

No, not really. DeJesus has been worth more career wins both offensively and defensively. Byrd's career numbers have been propped up by his last two seasons in Texas, whereas DeJesus has been much more consistent (aside from least year, when he was struggling with injuries). DeJesus gets on base more and is a superior defender. Also, Byrd plays CF, which makes his days here numbered by default. And he's in the last year of his contract.

Webers about to land his first recruit. Fwiw his high school coach said Groce was surprised he asked out. I'll be honest, I'd rather have the open scholarship than Orris anyway.