You don't undertand how much defense means if this was a serious post. Most sources have him listed as an .800+ OPS C which makes him top 5 or so in the NL even if his defense doesnt' show up. As for the pitching, Zambrano is in a clear downward spiral over the past 4 years and I don't think last year was fluke. Lilly had a career year that I don't see repeating. Marquis and the #5's are all worse than they pitched last year. The real difference is i don't believe in the Cubs defense from last year, I don't think they are a top 5 defensive team. I agree with most of what you say, but I think you're dead wrong about the Cubs' defense. And this won't be the Cubs defense from last year, it'll be better. Before you even say Aramis' name, he's been in an upward trend defensively each of the past 4 years, so it's safe to say he should be at least as good in 2008 as in 2007. Lee had a down year in 2007, and I don't believe for a second he just morphed from an elite into an average 1B in one year. As for the rest of the defense: Pie >>> Jones Fukudome >> Floyd/Murton/DeRo Soto >>>>>>>> Kendall/Barrett/Hill Soriano should be about the same (his numbers in LF last year were pretty close to his numbers in LF in 2006), and DeRosa's 2007 defense was right in line with his career numbers at 2B. Theriot's defense will be mediocre, but it was last year. I think it's a real stretch to say the Cubs defense will be worse in 2008, when it really should be better. At the very least, it'll be as good, with better control of the running game, and a lot more OF assists. As for the Brewers defense, even with Cameron, it is only better than average at one position. It's still going to be a huge weakness. 4-5 wins better? Maybe. But the loss of Cordero may well negate that by itself. There are a lot of variables floating around here for both teams. I find it just as likely that Braun, Hart and especially Hardy will regress a bit as it is that the Cubs' rotation will regress as a whole. Lilly did have a career year, but he also moved from the most brutal division in baseball to one of the softest. As for Z, I think is issues are all in his head, so who the hell knows.