I don't know. The best baseball teams win a little more than 60% of the time, and that's including against all competition, good or bad. How often does the best baseball team beat another top 8 team? 53%? The best NFL teams win 80% or more of the time. I think being the best might matter more in football, but it still doesn't absolutely determine the champion. Zona got to the Super Bowl with a 9-7 record last year. Pitt recently won a Super Bowl as a 6 seed. I really do think, after all is said and done, alot of this analysis winds up being just bunk. Give me the 6 seed Steelers and a Super Bowl championship over the other team that was better, but didn't make it. I'm an emotional guy. I'll take that emotional Super Bowl run from a team that maybe wasn't all that great on paper any day. The championship is really all that matters to me. That goes for all sports. It's not bunk. Unless it's actually attempting to predict one team as a champion. And in that case, said analysis usually amounts to a big chart with pictures of "experts" and their Super Bowl picks, which is obvious crap to begin with. Legitimate analysis tells you things of value. And the fact that it isn't going to do a great job of saying who ultimately wins is implied due to the nature of all this. I don't think legit analysis attempts to do that, anyway. It tells you who is likely to win and might or might not give you a good idea of what teams are actually better than others, but you're not going to see them say, "Team X will win the Super Bowl," at least, not without major qualification. If they do, you know what you're reading is crap to begin with. Unfortunately, like 90% of fans don't realize this and that's why the crap analysis is what you mostly find in the mainstream sources. I think most fans don't really care who someone says will be good on paper if it doesn't mean anything in terms of the championship. Maybe I'm in the minority though. BTW, ultimately -- and especially in the NFL -- I watch this stuff for the emotion. Stats & analysis are a distant second.