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There's no denying they made the AFC championship game and deservedly so. However, the playoffs can oftentimes be dominated by a team that gets really hot (2008 Baltimore Ravens in the AFC championship game) and knocks out a bad team and then a team that's rested but cold. You don't disregard a playoff run, but you should throw in the caveats. That said, the Jets were a team that narrowly missed losing upwards of 10 games last year and, accordingly, got a lot of luck. Their big offseason moves were Santonio Holmes who will miss the first 4 games of the year and Antonio Cromartie, whose biggest problem in San Diego was underachieving. They also picked up LT, who hasn't been impressive for a couple seasons now. Can he give quality carries to spell Shonn Greene (who's really good)? They have some nice core pieces with Greene, Revis, D'Brick and Kris Jenkins. But their top WR (Braylon) struggles to catch the ball and they have a QB who wasn't really impressive last year. They open the season with Baltimore and NE and then get Miami and Buffalo. 1-3 is very realistic without Holmes and if Sanchez struggles passing to Braylon and Lavernaeus Coles. Even with Holmes back, 8-9 wins tops is extremely realistic (Minny, 2 v NE, Balt, Pitt, Chi, GB, Den all on the schedule). The boom or bust comment is probably pretty accurate. If all goes well, they could win 12-13 games and the Super Bowl. If Sanchez doesn't develop and the FA additions don't produce they could lose 10 games. They're an interesting team, but not good enough for the hype, I don't think.

It'd be really tough to field a quality, competitive team in 2011 no matter what we do, I think. My preference would be to focus 2011 on shedding some money that won't help us in the future and bringing in some good, cheap productivity. If we were to try to compete in 2011, however, it'd almost have to start with signing Adam Dunn and hoping Aramis can stay healthy.

Kosuke's contract is only bad because Lou/Hendry benched him for Colvin. Nobody could have predicted this type of breakout from Colvin and Kosuke would likely be starting and producing if not for the fluke. It's another topic to discuss whether Colvin should be starting over Kosuke, though. And I already said Soriano's contract was humongous and awful. There's no disagreement on that point. The NTC likely helped, but he really shouldn't have been signed to that monster of a deal (even though he's been really good to this point overall). On Z, I can buy that argument. However, Hendry did still get a hometown discount and Zs struggles have been overblown quite a bit. He's overpaid no doubt, but is still a quality starting pitcher. His 2009 and 2010 xFIPs have actually been better than they were in 2007 and 2008 – 4.62 and 4.45 in 2007 and 2008, 4.27 and 4.34 in 2009 and 2010. He's not been ace material, but he's not been anywhere close to as bad as many people make him out to be. I didn't mention Bradley because I don't disagree with you there. I didn't like the Bradley contract at the time (primarily because of injury concerns and my preference for Dunn) and I still don't like the contract. My point of debate has been the NTCs and whether Hendry overpays every reliever he signs. I'm not trying to make a pro-Hendry argument here, moreso trying to direct the criticisms of him to where he's actually been bad, not so much to areas that he hasn't been bad (relievers) or that are irrelevant (NTCs).

I find this reasoning very circular. Why? I specifically meant Lee and Aramis and we had no desire to trade either until their 10/5 rights kicked in. The player is the one who negotiates in the NTC and the GM then tweaks the money/years offered accordingly. The player wants the assurance of not being traded until his 10/5 rights kick in (or being able to accept a trade and then reject any future deals) and the GM is more than happy to oblige if he sees that player as a young enough cornerstone that he won't want to trade the player during the contract. Whether that was the thought process or not for Hendry, he still has given NTCs either to guys who are good and young enough for us to not want to trade him or to guys whose contracts would likely prohibit trading them in the first place (Soriano, Z).

With both Howry and Eyre, Hendry gave them one year too long on their deals. Eyre posted a 3.38 and 4.13 ERA his first two years with a 2.43 and 1.29 K/BB. Howry posted a 3.17 and 3.32 ERA in his first two seasons with a 4.18 and 3.79 K/BB. Eyre was a little worse overall than I thought, but generally you're not getting close to the level of production from some random rookie that you got from Howry. The bigger frustration I have with Hendry is giving multiple millions for replaceable bench bats (Neifi, Miles, etc) than giving contracts to relievers. Grabow was a bad contract all the way around, but I really can't think of any other big money relievers who were a terrible (or even really needless) contract. I'm not talking about who might lift their clause. I'm saying if no player had NTC, who is it realistic that we may have traded to this point? Lee has invoked his 10/5 rights, the NTC is irrelevant at this point. You're also talking about NTCs as if they have no value to the club handing out the NTC. I can't give you an exact dollar figure, but the reason NTCs are given out is because you can offer the NTC and then lower the dollar figure or length of the deal. The NTC is as good as money for many players because they dictate their future at that point. Some guys won't sign without it and some guys will take less money or years to include an NTC. Hendry has done a pretty good job of either giving the NTCs to players who we likely wouldn't want to trade (Lee, Aramis) or guys whose contract would be prohibitive enough to make the NTC irrelevant (Soriano, Z – though Z could have been in that first category when we signed him). The no trade protection that Lilly had generally just blocked trades to teams that weren't likely to want him anyway. Most of the contracts aren't that enormous, especially at the time they were signed, it's just that the economy has collapsed and, because of that, teams don't want to take on very large contracts. Soriano was a generally humongous and crazy contract, but his was the only outlandish one. We were actually outbid by multiple teams for Kosuke and Z gave us a hometown discount. Aramis did the same as Z (and his position is too valuable to let go right now) and Lee's contract isn't keeping him here. The budgetary issues are more a result of an unforeseen economic collapse moreso than Hendry handing out ridiculous contracts. All these players have been more productive than not over the length of their contracts.

Good point. I should have included monster contracts in that as well. Soriano has been good to very good as a Cub (save last year) and has really been about all we could have hoped for (realistically). Nobody's trading for that contract right now unless they're incredibly desperate to win at the trade deadline, though.

Darrelle Revis is officially holding out. On a side note, even with Revis I'm not buying into the Jets as the juggernaut being portrayed.

It increases the team's run expectancy. Why?

That makes your point factual, but it's not really a bad thing. Grabow was a bad signing, but Howry and Eyre were both, overall, good for the Cubs (more Howry than Eyre). Z, Kosuke and Soriano are largely untradeable at this point because of poor performance/benching. Kosuke may become moreso next year when less of his contract is left, however. Lilly was just traded for a good return and Lee and Aramis have 10/5 rights and we had no real desire (or reason) to trade them before last season. I did forget about Shark, but he's making $2 mil a year. I don't see how the NTCs are keeping us from rebuilding the team if the desire is there. Regardless of NTCs, blowing the team up would not be a particularly good idea anyway. I really don't see the issue. If no player had any type of no trade protection, who would we have traded to this point that we have not and would trading that player have been a good idea?

While I agree with your overall point (Hendry overspends and a lesser payroll may actually be a good thing during his GM tenure), I have some issues: Who? Howry got about $4 mil a year, Grabow got an average of 3.5 a year and Eyre got 3 a year. I can't think of any $5+ mil a year relievers under Hendry. And Howry and Eyre were good signings. We only have five guys with NTCs: Lee, Aramis, Soriano, Z, Fukudome. Soriano and Z are the only NTCs that look really bad at this point. The Cubs want to trade Fukudome but really shouldn't and Lee and Aramis have 10/5 rights at this point (and we didn't want to trade either prior to last year when I think both got their rights).

He's been bad prior to joining the Cubs, but he's put up some very good numbers this year in Iowa. He has a 3.16 ERA and a 1.218 WHIP so far in Iowa and has struck out 8.6 batters per nine innings while posting a 3.8 BB/9. His 2.26 K/BB is better than it's been since he was 22 in between A+ and AA. He is 27, but like I said, is a former 1st round pick (#10 by the Rangers) and was rated the #52 prospect in baseball in 2005 and the #72 prospect in 2006. Probably not an ace at this point, but he could settle in as a mid-rotation type guy if he's figured it out. Here's his baseball-reference page.

I like this idea. It also opens up consistent playing time for Kosuke to rebuild his trade value for the trade deadline next year.

per MLBTR

Are all baseball fans this stupid? Or just Cubs fans? People are comparing this deal to the Lou Brock and Greg Maddux trades. It just doesn't compare. Every organization has those fans.

I don't know much about Cashner but its clear he has a plus fast ball - but does he have a change or curve? He also seems to have some control issues. Basically, I don't know why everyone thinks he s/b in the rotation. What am I missing? He's spent his entire minor league career as a starter and been pretty dominant overall. This season in 9 starts he struck out 59 batters in 57 innings while posting a 0.947 WHIP. In three seasons as a starter he's struck out 153 batters in 177 innings with a 1.235 WHIP. And he's been slightly young for each level. He's too good to leave in the bullpen.

He could be talking about WAR. Kerry has a career 22.8 WAR.

There's no way I'd let Dempster walk on waivers. He has way too much value. Otherwise, I generally agree with your list. I'd probably keep Aramis unless a team was willing to trade and I'd add Fontenot and Baker to the list.

1.011 OPS the past two weeks and .847 the past month is a good sign as well.

I'm excited about Diamond not because I think he'll be a top of the rotation guy, but because I think he can be a quality starting pitcher in the majors. He's a former top 10 pick, was a top 75 prospect in two seasons (2005 and 2006) and finally appears to be figuring it out. He's got nearly as many strikeouts as innings pitched (104 Ks in 108 IP) and a 1.2 WHIP. With Jay's recent struggles, Diamond seems like the best candidate. I still favor putting Cashner in the rotation next year, though it might be tough for him to stretch out and not risk injury to get into the rotation this year.

The hoopla was because he was the #1 player in the nation and had a lot of drama surrounding his signing with Tennessee (committing to Miami, de-committing and then taking an extra month to make a decision). He apparently had a hip issue last season and also had some issues adjusting to major college play. I think he'll eventually be a really good back.

I hadn't heard anything about Arthur wanting Bryce released since April. The twists keep coming, I guess. Not surprised Dooley won't released him from his scholarship, he's really weird about releasing players.

Bruce Miles on the possibility of other trades made in August by the Cubs:

It's a complete mess. For the longest time, the word was that Bryce wanted to come back to Tennessee, but that his dad was pressuring him to come back home and play with his brother at K-State. After last season going a month past NSD to pick a school, it didn't seem that odd for him to take an extended period to decide that. However, he was supposed to meet with Dooley last Tuesday morning before flying back to Kansas. The meeting never happened. Instead, he just texted to Dooley that he wasn't coming back to UT. His dad apparently went ballistic when he heard that and the last I heard was that Bryce and Dooley were supposed to meet last Thursday. As far as I know, Bryce hasn't asked for his released yet, but it's assumed he will pretty soon. UT fans are unsurprisingly pretty upset at Bryce, but happy that he finally made a decision. I'm disappointed that he decided to leave as he was probably the only real feature back on the roster. We'll probably go with a Tauren Poole/David Oku duo running the ball this year, which should be solid, but Bryce has more upside than either of them.

I'd probably go Boldin. The Ravens have been talking about opening up the offense some, but haven't had the weapons for Flacco. Now, Ozzie Newsome has gotten him some weapons, so I'll bet they pass it more. If not Boldin, then I'd think about Knowshon. With Orton and Tebow at QB, they'll likely run it more. Especially without a proven great WR like Brandon Marshall.

I could definitely see a waiver deal for Nady or Baker. I wonder, though, what the plans are for DeWitt. If they see him as the second baseman of the future, they'll likely look to deal Fontenot. However, if they see DeWitt as more of a utility type 2B/3B backup, they may choose to keep Fontenot. Agreed. Was just hoping it would happen today. I definitely think we'll see at least one of our other guys moved before the waiver deadline. Barring injuries, Baker is probably a longshot to be dealt with as many middle infielders as were traded this deadline. However, I'll be surprised if Nady isn't dealt. Somebody will decide they need a bat off the bench and target him, I'd think.