dew1679666265

I've seen this mentioned a few times. Someone help a rookie...what is Cot's? It's the best, most in-depth source for baseball contracts that I know of.

=D>

No, it's not like that at all. It's more like asking a group of people what they'd rather have, 1000 dollars or 20. Or like asking people if they want to probably have $1,000 in two years or definitely have $20 now. You take the risk every single time, obviously.

I can agree with this. I don't question the options exist, I question the ease with which we can acquire those options. Probably nitpicking.

Overall a very good post, but a couple minor issues. In fairness on #4, you should also mention that both have been anywhere from mediocre to awful in the MLB as well. Neither are a good bet to be quality pitchers going forward, though both could very well be. Maybe it's just the way I read it and it could be my mistake, but I'm not sure "easy reach" is the correct term. Finding quality pitching is very difficult and acquiring that pitching is even moreso. It's completely possible that we could fix a lot of our pitching needs in the offseason, but I'd say it's not very likely at all that we hit on enough pitching to not have considerable concerns about it next year.

Thanks. I'll have to take a look at those. Unless Butch and his staff are considerably better coaches than I think they are, my guess is 6-6 is best case scenario (wins over Utah St, Ark St, UF, UTC, UK, Vandy). I'm not a big fan of Butch's staff though. And I'll echo Tim's sentiment - welcome to the board! Definitely some good input from you.

I'd like to see the rankings you're talking about. As much because it'd be interesting to see sources for statistical analysis in college football as anything else. There's a huge difference between talking about guys doing dumb things on the field that cause their team to be penalized and talking about mythical "buckling down under pressure and showing some grit and heart" garbage. Florida averaged 7.9 penalties per game in 2013, the most in the SEC by a longshot (LSU next at 6.9). That's 121st worst in the nation for UF. That's real and it hurts, especially when you struggle to pick up first downs (113th in total offense). I will say, though, they turned the ball over less than I thought - only .8 per game (37th in nation). Tennessee was disturbingly pathetic at that, though (1.5 per game, good for 119th in nation). That's interesting. I frequent Football Outsiders for the NFL, but didn't know they ventured into college football. I'll have to look that over. That said, much like in baseball, sometimes teams simply underperform expected wins for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's fluky, sometimes it's because managers do dumb things that cost their team wins (excessive hit and runs, steals, etc). It's the same in football - sometimes underperforming is just a fluky thing that's a result of a injuries or variance, but sometimes you just have a terrible coach (Muschamp).

Florida might be a little better, but I've been very unimpressed by them under Muschamp. Two years ago they looked pretty good, but even then there were signs that something was screwy with them. I know they were massively injured last year, but even before all the injuries piled up, they looked incompetent offensively against Toledo and then lost to a Miami team that couldn't really move the ball that much either. And it took a dumb decision by Butch and an extremely generous Tennessee team for Florida to win that game. I'm a big follower of recruiting rankings (though I understand their limitations), but the majority of Florida's players (primarily on offense, but some on defense) haven't come close to living up to those rankings. And I suspect an inability by Muschamp to develop players is the culprit.

Utah State has been on the books for several years, I believe - before they were anything to write home about. It's one of those games that was supposed to be the warmup opener that has all of a sudden become really, really dangerous for a team that desperately needs an easy opener.

Donatavius Blair (JUCO Jr) is probably going to be a stud, but I figure he'll have a transition period this year. Marcus Jackson is likely going to be the rock of the line and very good, but he's still a bit unproven because of our depth on the line during his tenure. Mack Crowder and Kyler Kerbyson were highly rated, impressive guys coming out of college, but neither have played well enough to earn any playing time behind legitimately very good linemen (James Stone and Alex Bullard). The line could be ok, but I'm not real optimistic. It's my biggest concern in regard to a breakout in 2015.

I think there's some overrating going on there. Too many questions marks for all the teams involved (even SC has some questions). I will say, though, the pitiful comment is based on what the SEC East historically has been. And we saw what that mix resulted in for them last year. They're not going to be 4-8 again, but to win close games consistently you have to be disciplined and fundamentally sound. There are two definite things we know about Muschamp teams - they're undisciplined and they can't score. Not a good mix.

Tennessee is probably a 5-7 or 6-6 win team this year - the breakout should happen next year when we'll have a bunch of returning players everywhere.

I'm just not sure UGA has enough playmakers, especially on defense, to overcome a questionable QB situation. Gurley is about the only elite player they have out there. That said, they're the toughest to place for me. I could see an argument that they're going to go 10-2 and I could buy an argument that they'll go 5-7. In Jim Chaney's offensive scheme, I think Worley had a future. In Butch's spread option offense, I think he's just too limited. I think Josh Dobbs should win the starting job and hold it all year. Give him the ball, let him run with it and see if he's the guy or if you need to get Nathan Peterman ready for 2015.

The problem is, the two teams who finished in the top 5 last year may be the only ones who finish above .500. UGA probably will as well, but they've had a lot of losses (including a huge one in Aaron Murray) and that defense was already weak at best last year. I could easily see this playing out: SC: 11-1 Mizz: 10-2 UGA: 8-4 Tenn: 6-6 UF: 5-7 Vandy: 5-7 UK: 3-9 There's some optimistic booking there and doesn't include one or more of the teams getting upset. 4 out of 7 teams being .500 or worse is pretty pitiful for an SEC conference. As for Florida, Muschamp is going to have to prove he's good enough to turn this team around. I'm not sold at all that the recruiting classes have developed properly - for the first time in a couple of decades they looked slow and bad last year - and Muschamp is incapable of/unwilling to adjust his system to fit the players on the field. Tennessee has quite a lot of young talent at the skill positions and though they're unproven, I think we'll get quality contributions out of guys like Jalen Hurd and Josh Malone. That said, the defensive line is brand new and the offensive line has 1 guy who's started a game (Marcus Jackson) in college. We've got a bright future if Butch and staff are better than I think they are on the field, but this year we'll do well to win 6 games. Last year's Tennessee team was considerably better than this year's - QB and CB were the only positions of question last year and both lines were very, very good going into the year. We did beat SC, but we also lost to 4-8 Florida (thanks Butch) and Vandy and nearly lost to South Alabama.

Yeah, the East is really pitiful. There's a bit of an outside shot at possible respectability if Georgia finds some good players outside of Gurley and a couple others and if Tennessee can find some guys to play well on the lines, but neither of those are terribly likely. It's pretty likely that only 3 of 6 East teams will be .500 or better (SC/UGA/Missouri)

They won last year solely by their offensive prowess. 7 teams scored over 30 points against them and 4 teams scored over 40. Losing Manziel and Evans...that offense is gonna be hard pressed to outscore anyone with their atrocious defense. I don't think they'll win 10+ games, but I think they can be pretty tough in any given game due to very good coaching and scheming. Over the course of the season, though, the lack of high-end SEC talent couple with a lack of big time playmakers will catch up to them. May not have articulated that well in the original post.

I can see all of that. LSU/Auburn could both go either way, but I think a split is entirely realistic. A&M might be a bit of a toss up - they no longer have Manziel or Evans, but they do have Sumlin and he's a heck of coach. Definitely some stud recruits coming in, but we're replacing almost our entire o-line (Butch intelligently redshirted Marcus Jackson last year rather than letting him back up so we'll have him) and our entire d-line. Even with all skill positions likely improving, I think that's going to devastate us in the SEC.

Hm, this is why I shouldn't trust my memory. Thought there were other significant Rebels in the draft. I take it back then.

I tend to put a ton on the head coach and his staff when looking at a team, hence my feeling that Saban will figure things out in time to either win the West or just miss out again. Will they be a national juggernaut? Probably not, but I wouldn't completely rule it out either. The same rule works in reverse with LSU. Miles is unpredictable and could really help, or really hurt, LSU this year. Auburn is intriguing and has some talent, but they'll have to prove to me they weren't a fluke that'll come back to earth some this year.

Man, sounds like I'm underselling Ole Miss by a alot. I knew they had several guys bolt for the NFL, but wasn't sure what they had behind them. So long as Les Miles is at LSU, I won't be surprised if they drop off, but at the same time, so long as Saban is in Alabama, I won't be surprised if they exceed expectations. The east is going to be pathetically bad this year. The only team that might be nationally relevant is South Carolina. I could also see the bottom four teams being under .500 too.

It's always been better to look at for minor league stuff, I think, but FG is getting better. I agree it's still easier to read BR's minors stuff than FG's, though.

What's better than BR? I typically use Fangraphs, but I'll also check out BR at times. Is there something better out there I'm missing? Fangraphs is it. Ok, that's good. I like using it, but wasn't sure if I was somehow behind the curve.

For a guy who can't top 90, back end of the rotation seems like a best case scenario unless his control is simply amazing. I was being diplomatic. I don't want to be Mr. Everything Sucks ALL of the time. Ah, I see. That was as much for Gilby as for you, though.

Wood's xFIP by season: 2010: 3.97 2011: 4.61 2012: 4.62 2013: 4.50 2014: 4.68 His ERA is worse this year than ever and his walks are the highest they've ever been as well, but he's basically always been an average to worse pitcher. He's not been as good as his ERA would indicate in the first two seasons, but he's not been as bad as his ERA would indicate this season. Not a guy I would pinpoint as a real bounceback candidate, though.

What's better than BR? I typically use Fangraphs, but I'll also check out BR at times. Is there something better out there I'm missing?