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dew1679666265

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Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    For a guy who can't top 90, back end of the rotation seems like a best case scenario unless his control is simply amazing.
  2. dew1679666265
    If that happens I'm 100% with you. If that happens.
  3. dew1679666265
    If we could have been more competitive, then what we did was throw away 3 full seasons for the possibility (which it still is, no matter how awesome the future appears) of winning in the future. I'll be pretty unhappy if we did that only to have a slightly better than Hendry tenure (which 4-5 90 win seasons in 9 years would be).
  4. dew1679666265
    As 2013 payroll: 70.8 (1.3 dead money) As 2014 payroll: 88.6 (2.6 dead money) - pre-Jim Johnson DFA Cubs 2013 payroll: 75.4 (17.5 dead money) Cubs 2014 payroll: 79.7 (21.4 dead money)
  5. dew1679666265
    And prior to that still had less than $3 mil in dead money. Whereas we've had Soriano and Z as dead money in the Theo regime. That can be worked around if we could carry payrolls above $100 mil, but not if we're in the As salary realm.
  6. dew1679666265
    I think the truth may be close to that. For example, Ricketts promised Theo money to spend when Theo first came in and Theo planned to build a winner relatively quickly. Then bad things happened and Ricketts no longer had any money. Instead of trying to patchwork together a longshot contender, Theo just decided to go all out with his deep down fantasy of a total rebuild.
  7. dew1679666265
    Certain comments he's made in the past keep me from not believing it. I still think the money just wasn't there, though.
  8. dew1679666265
    I tend to agree that the past three years has been more on Ricketts than Theo, but I don't completely rule out the idea that Theo saw an opportunity to do a complete ground-up rebuild and try his all home grown talent fantasy.
  9. dew1679666265
    Beane also doesn't typically have as much wasted money in years that the As contend as the Cubs had. Wasted money isn't a big problem if you can carry a $130-150 mil payroll as we were doing in the Hendry era. But if we have that type of wasted money with a payroll of less than $100 mil, it'll take things going just right to put together a contender. If I remember right, most or all of the scenarios that had us contending also had us with a payroll over $100 mil in 2012.
  10. dew1679666265
    I could see 5-6 wins for Tennessee this year. USU/Ark St/UTC are likely wins and I don't see a win in the OU/UGA/Bama/SC/Mizz stretch. The key is going to be the group of UF/Ole Miss/UK/Vandy. We need to, and I think can, win three of those. Butch cost us the win against Florida last year by making a needless QB change prior to it, so I really want that game this year. UK and Vandy should both be wins, but they should have been last year too and we lost to Vandy. Ole Miss is going to be tough, but I'm not sure they're as good this year as last year (OMC can correct me if I'm wrong).
  11. dew1679666265
    A very large portion of that MLB payroll decrease has been voluntary. I think this is the key question. Is the massive payroll drop due to Theo not caring about winning in the short term and wanting a completely home grown team, or is it that Ricketts simply didn't/doesn't have any money and we had to dip below $100 million in payroll whether we liked it or not? The former situation means we could have won if Theo had put forth the effort to do so, the latter means there was no possibility that we could have contended regardless of how smart Theo is.
  12. dew1679666265
    Tennessee will suck. Again.
  13. dew1679666265
    I remembered you were one of Lake's biggest supporters. I was a big fan of Lake as well, but fell just a little short of saying he had a higher ceiling than Starlin. I thought the ceilings were about similar.
  14. dew1679666265
    Lake and Castro, I believe, were in A or A+ when the comparisons began. They actually began in 2008 in rookie ball. Yeah, I was just going through some old threads and the separation began in A ball, so the comps must have been made in rookie ball. The ceiling talk was still there in 2009 for Lake, though, and nobody seemed to think it preposterous.
  15. dew1679666265
    Lake and Castro, I believe, were in A or A+ when the comparisons began.
  16. dew1679666265
    There was a whole lot more to it than that.
  17. dew1679666265
    It wasn't seen as terribly unlikely when he and Castro were in the minors together. It became less likely as he continued in the system and didn't seem to be developing.
  18. dew1679666265
    Even the people who didn't regard Lake terribly highly didn't question his talent, just his ability to get there. For instance, I remember debates on here many years ago about who was going to be better - Castro or Lake. We're not talking about a scrub - Lake has always been immensely talented, he's just always been extremely raw and (reportedly) not real open to being coached.
  19. dew1679666265
    There were at least a couple years where Lake had the highest ceiling in the organization. He just won't reach it. A "ceiling" that there clearly wasn't much industry faith in since he was never a highly regarded prospect. In SCS' defense, he never said anything about how they were regarded. Just that they were both high ceiling prospects, which is true.
  20. dew1679666265
    Ok, that makes me feel a lot better. Good comparison, I think.
  21. dew1679666265
    He's done it every year he's started. I think there's definite reason to be concerned. Samardzija had a 5.05 ERA at the end of June 2012 and finished with a 3.81 ERA. 1 year is not a pattern. Shark 2012 ERA: 1st half - 4.71 2nd half - 2.58 Definitely not seeing a second half swoon there.
  22. dew1679666265
    That forearm soreness obviously led to the TJS surgery this June. I could be way off here, but with him being a Theo pick in Boston in 2010 it wouldn't surprise me to see him be the guy. You think it'd be somebody that good? Indications have been that the PTBNL will be pretty insignificant.
  23. dew1679666265
    I do love that part and the increase in his IsoD as well, but the K rate went up and the production down (wOBA and wRC+ both dropped a lot). yeah, but i think looking at peripherals rather than real production and value gives you better insight as to how a hitter will develop. there will likely be a drop in production to the next levels, for a time, with very young players. True and I'm not ignoring the peripherals, but I don't want to ignore the heightened K rate or the drop in production either.
  24. dew1679666265
    The bolded is a very good point. I wouldn't be pissed about it, but I value Shark very, very highly. I see him as a guy very much on the upswing due to the relative lack of starting experience he has (compared to your typical 29 year old). While I'm not saying he'll get that good, I think he could be a Cliff Lee type guy who breaks out in his late 20s/early 30s. Even if he doesn't truly break out, he's still a 3 WAR pitcher with upside.
  25. dew1679666265
    You have to project him to keep improving, but he's only been a full-time starter for three seasons, has posted around a 3 WAR each of the first two and is on pace to clear that easily this year. Cliff Lee was around the same age when he broke out and, while I'm not sure it's likely he'll be that good, Shark has the stuff and the circumstances to do something similar.
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