UK1679666180
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Everything posted by UK1679666180
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Miller is slotted correctly, IMO. As questionable as Moore as been with FA, his job as far as putting the initial steps of a very good farm might be his most lasting impression. With that said, TB will be at the top again next year even with Hellickson/Jennings graduating.
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Although I'm disappointed for Otto, Moreland is a very good choice.
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I would give him that amount, there isn't much better value you'll find for 27-30 mil in the FA. The last 4 FA contracts of Wood, Byrd, Bradley, and Fukudome isn't close to the production of Pujols despite similar value per year. He's got a likely 5-6 year window of exceeding his dealn its worth the risk to worry the back half of the contract. Signing him would a much greater emphasis of building within to surround him. I would be all for his rumored demands.
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I would keep everything the same, except I would bring back the DFEs. Hard slotting would eliminate most of the HS kids minus the top 3 rounds, throw international into the mix and it becomes a free for all.
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Not to wonder too far off the topic but ESPNU should just have non-stop reports from Jenn Brown even if its only about Auburn.
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Jernigan to FSU.
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UK has had a very good recruiting class, with that said I'm not a Phillips guy.
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No proof. I've talked to those (mainly scouts) who know him and he's not like that. He will play the best guys. If Soriano or Byrd struggle, there's little doubt in my mind that Colvin will get more ABs.
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No link, but he's not the guy to play him if he conts to regress. It should be noted that I believe he still hit RHers better than Byrd.
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Colvin can't play CF, both Byrd and Fukudome are serviceable out there. Neither have great range. As far as benching Soriano against RHers, with Quade, he won't play favorites based on salary as no one in the FO has the luxury to pick that over current production.
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I think this topic should be separated from Garza. With that said, I think Colvin should start against RH'ers with that time being divided between Soriano and Byrd depending on which one is more productive and who is hotter at the time. I have no doubt that Colvin will hit RHers better than Byrd and unless something happens, better than Soriano too.
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Just curious, out of all the people that were traded how many were his picks? Only Guyer. Wilken's department did have significant input into the other three (Lee was signed under Wilken, Archer was traded to the Cubs under Wilken's watch, and Chirinos was switched to catcher after Wilken took over) This. Also, building up the group of arms (Cashner, Simpson, Jackson, McNutt, etc.) has made dealing Archer that much more easier. It is not like years past where it might be only one high ceiling guy then fall off quickly. Aren't we selling high on Archer too? It sounds like McNutt has always been the favorite in the organization where Archer struggled every year till this year when everything suddenly clicked. Depends on how the Cubs rank him. Not wanting to give him up is why the trade took so long. I have no idea how they or any other team rank their pitchers though I wouldn't put BA as gospel.
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I would put Carpenter ahead of Greinke and Garcia should be much higher. I would prob take Stl over any pitcher in the division.
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Just curious, out of all the people that were traded how many were his picks? Only Guyer. Wilken's department did have significant input into the other three (Lee was signed under Wilken, Archer was traded to the Cubs under Wilken's watch, and Chirinos was switched to catcher after Wilken took over) This. Also, building up the group of arms (Cashner, Simpson, Jackson, McNutt, etc.) has made dealing Archer that much more easier. It is not like years past where it might be only one high ceiling guy then fall off quickly.
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Although Wilken gets blasted here pretty heavily based on his 1st rd picks, trades like this help add validity to what I think has been a good rebuilding job of the farm, compared to when he became the SD.
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Sucks to be Guyer, though. He would have had a chance to either platoon with Colvin if Fukudome gets traded or win a spot outright if Colvin tanks. I really don't think he gets a chance to start in Tampa. Maybe not this year but in the future, Guyer has a better chance to see the field there than Chicago. This year Guyer had a realistic chance to platoon with Colvin. In the future, Byrd goes away and there's two OF spots for the combination of Colvin, Jackson and Guyer. I think there was a fairly realistic chance of him having a long-term role in the Chicago OF as at least a platoon partner for one or both of those guys. I just don't think its the Cubs MO to do that, espec next year in the win now mode. Jackson likely starts in Fukudome's place as you mentioned but after that I see them debating on present/future and leaning outside the organ. regardless of a new GM. Look at TBs OF right now with Joyce, Jennings, and Upton and TBs organizational philosophy and I think his chances are better there.
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Sucks to be Guyer, though. He would have had a chance to either platoon with Colvin if Fukudome gets traded or win a spot outright if Colvin tanks. I really don't think he gets a chance to start in Tampa. Maybe not this year but in the future, Guyer has a better chance to see the field there than Chicago.
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Is he just outperforming it or is he getting helped out quite a bit by a good Tampa defense? The total UZR/150 for the Tampa defense last year was 3.1, while it was -14.9 for the Cubs. DeWitt over Theriot may help that a little this year, but Lee to Pena will hurt it. I could be overrating UZR, but it's a gamble by the Cubs. If Garza has really been performing closer to his xFIP and the defense has helped him, this is a really bad trade by the Cubs. However, if Garza is just simply a pitcher who will always outproduce xFIP, then this will probably be a decent to good trade for the Cubs. If I'm giving up Archer and Lee, though, I want to be more certain of why Garza's ERA and xFIP are so different. Pena is almost as good as Lee defensively and better than half the year with Lee/Nady. As I mentioned earlier I'm not a fan of Babip/Fip and I don't want to divert the topic but I see it as a positive net despite Wrigley and a worse defense compared to playing in the NLC.
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The biggest problem I have with this trade, as I said earlier, is that Garza pretty much has to reach that potential for this trade to make sense. We didn't have a need in the rotation and Garza hasn't been a top of the rotation pitcher to this point. He'll cost upward of $5-6 mil this year and more after that. His xFIP doesn't indicate a pitcher on the verge of being a top of the rotation pitcher, but he'll have to be to keep us from having overpaid. And if I'm trading primarily for potential, overpaying doesn't make sense. Dew, I think you're overrating xFIP given Garza's ability to outperform it on an annual basis. Similar to when a hitter typically hits for a high BABIP, after awhile it becomes the norm. Minus HRs, he'll improve his stats. how can we be sure that Garza outperforming his xFIP wasn't due to Tampa Bay's super awesome defense? I've always been under the belief and it would like apply to Archer as well that power pitchers with plus stuff tend outperform stats they can control b/c their stuff can overcome flaws both have elevated FBs and bouts of spotty control, although Garza can spot his FB better.
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The biggest problem I have with this trade, as I said earlier, is that Garza pretty much has to reach that potential for this trade to make sense. We didn't have a need in the rotation and Garza hasn't been a top of the rotation pitcher to this point. He'll cost upward of $5-6 mil this year and more after that. His xFIP doesn't indicate a pitcher on the verge of being a top of the rotation pitcher, but he'll have to be to keep us from having overpaid. And if I'm trading primarily for potential, overpaying doesn't make sense. Dew, I think you're overrating xFIP given Garza's ability to outperform it on an annual basis. Similar to when a hitter typically hits for a high BABIP, after awhile it becomes the norm. Minus HRs, he'll improve his stats.
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Lake has a higher ceiling, while Lee is a safer bet to reach his ceiling (although I question that when an inside-out hitter swings and misses that much).
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I hope its Cashner with Gorzelanny in long-relief.
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Here are some of the numbers he used: Garza: 3.05 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.09 HR/9, 38.9% GB%, 4.39 xFIP Harang: 2.57 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.47 HR/9, 35.1% GB%, 4.21 xFIP He adjusted them for league, as well. Garza may have a high ceiling, but if you put any stock into xFIP, he's been pretty underwhelming in three full seasons in the majors. I know he might get a positive boost for switching leagues, but he'll likely get a negative bump for having a much worse defense behind him. Unless Hendry and his scouts are convinced he'll continue to outpitch his xFIP by a decent amount, there was no reason to give up Archer. Even if he does, I don't think you give up Archer. I'm not as high on Archer as you, nor Lee as others. Archer doesn't have the command/control of the FB as well as deception to translate at the ML level of a #1 starter. Lee likely ends up hitting 7/8 and Guyer and Chirinos are reserves one being marginal and one being fringe.
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He includes stats in the article as well. They're different styles of pitchers, diff stages of career, different ceilings. Comparing a finesse pitcher with a power pitcher in any comparison becomes void given the stage of Garza's career . I love this trade for the Cubs.
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I think mil gave up more than the Cubs and didn't have to take a bloated contract in return.