Jason Ross

Summerhill is classic Cub. Up the middle, Cape performer, good in zone contact, maybe a little aggressive here or there on swing choices, strong on the bases...

Owen Caissie is on some kind of heater. Wow.

You have to have age verification to be apart of the Double-Dong Party.

Matt Shaw has made 42 starts between May 19th and today. So...four more.

I teach middle school. Repeating the same thing over-and-over again is what I do 80% of the time from August-through-May. 15% of the time I ask "what are you doing, why would you do that?" 5% of the time I drink (always after work, mind you). Frankly, baseball season and writing on NSBB is basically the same thing.

It's always something. I remember the great debates of 2017-2020 where the Cubs offense was "not consistent" or something. That one lasted three damn years. Thankfully, BABIP luck will likely change before then for these two.

It's times like this when I miss having to work the other 10 months of the year I have too much time on my hands currently.

I would like to introduce you to Luis Arreaz. Now, I want to be very clear here in that I am in no way comparing Matt Shaw to Luis Arraez in any way other than an anecdote, but he perpetually is among the 1% of EV and hard hit. Thing is this; many people misuse EV and hard hit% in that they use it like it was a silver bullet. Hitters like Matt Shaw (and Arraez) - high swing, high contact have lower EV's. When a hitter swings and misses, they don't create an EV, it's a miss. When a hitter strikes out, they don't make an EV. Hitters who make a lot of contact trade K's for weak-ass contact, thus, lowering EV. This also creates more opportunities. If I hit the ball in play, even weakly, I have many times .120-.200 xBA or something. Yeah, most of the time I'm getting out, but a decent amount of the time? I'm getting on. K's are always outs so they don't factor into BABIP. K's, as well, have an xBA of .000. So lowering my EV to trade K's for contact can work. (Now, you can also trade K's for power, so let's be clear, this isn't always good!) Beyond that, Shaw's sprint speed should add to his BABIP significantly. Shaw should run a pretty high BABIP regardless. This isn't to say that EV can't improve! And Matt Shaw is. I've shown this chart a few times, but here it is again: Don't you think it's weird that Shaw is making, consistently, better contact and yet his BABIP isn't following suit? Look at his first half...notice how they went together? So we have three things to understand: 1. Matt Shaw's EV's will likely remain lower due to his makeup. 2. Matt Shaw hits a lot of balls in play and thus his BABIP should help him more than others because he will generate more chances 3. Even despite this, we should be seeing significantly better BABIP based on the progress under the hood for Shaw

So, you realize that Matt Shaw's data is significantly better than what Pete Crow-Armstrong's was at this same time last year, do you not? How'd that work out? Do you think sending Matt Shaw back to Iowa will "build his confidence?" A place he has been 40% better than league average? Will he just come back up to the Cubs and because he hits a home run off of the corpse of Matt Fulmer, he'll be ready to hit 98mph? The "confidence" argument always confuses me a bit. If I was struggling at work, and my boss took my responsibilities away and gave me obviously easier tasks that I had already shown mastery of, I wouldn't feel any better, and I wouldn't feel any more confident. Why we think baseball players are any different is beyond me. I also wouldn't mind a 3b, but not a starting type. The Cubs need a Castro, an Urias; padding. They have the 3rd best offense by almost any metric, they dont need a starting 3b

Matt Shaw xwOBA entering game: .307 League 3b wOBA: .306 zOPS: .723 OPS (as of 7/1): .617 Matt Shaw BABIP: .247 zBABIP (as of 7/1): .341 You know all of those conversations we just had about Ian Happ? Yeah, same here. Anything with a z in front is what ZiPS projects he should be at. So by almost every system we have, expected data, ZiPS data, a look at recent BABIP vs hard hit, it's pretty clear he's a recipient of massive bad luck. Sending him down isn't the answer.

I just spent the last hour deep diving on Charlie Morton for a front-page article, so when I came and saw "Rays acquire RHP from Orioles" I about threw an absolute horsefeathers fit.

Probably a long shot, especially since Alcantara was announced as injury. Rojas sounds like he pissed off a manager and Wiggins has sat for two weeks. Teams would likely rather be at his starts if the Cubs were that close to moving him, not looking over May tape. Wiggins was gassed his last start. It was super hot, and he walked four, something he really hasnt done. During that game he matched, in just three months the, his total innings for the entire 2024 year. Year prior was coming back from TJS, so no innings. Just think its coincidence. Any trade is likely a post-ASB thing right now. Teams are scouting prospects for the draft Sunday night.

I didn't say anything about the balls to RF. Yes, they were hits. I was just pointing out his whiffs and that his line is likely worse than he threw.

Notice I didn't say "perfect". Yes, there are some flaws still. Regardless, he pitched better than the line susggests.

Yep. He pitched pretty well tonight. 19 whiffs is his career high. He pitched better than the line left him.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images The discourse around Jordan Wicks's return has been fairly negative, in most of the circles I tend to run in. Whether that's my time here on NSBB, on reddit, or on social media, the Wicks return has been met with little fanfare. While I haven't seen the word "bust" associated with him, the general feeling I get is that many people are already chalking him up as one. Perhaps it's because his debut was made nearly two years ago, and he's been somewhat ineffective (coupled with a litany of nagging injuries which kept him out of the mainstream eye), but it's good to remember that in parts of three seasons at the highest level, Wicks hasn't even eclipsed 90 innings yet. Down in Iowa, his overall numbers don't paint a fantastic picture, either. His 4.06 ERA isn't special, and he's had a few clunkers, giving up seven runs in under three innings on April 26, and then (with just one start in between) he gave up another four, not lasting through five innings, on May 13. Add in some nagging injuries for Wicks and the Cubs' excellent season, and I wouldn't blame you if you missed that since that second poor showing, Wicks had been excellent—posting a 1.65 ERA, flashing improved fastball velocities, and striking out nearly one of every three hitters he faced. On Sunday Night Baseball, against the St. Louis Cardinals, Wicks got a chance to show a bit of what he's been working on to the national audience, and it was pretty darn impressive. The first thing that caught my eye (and maybe yours, as well) was that the fastball velocity was way up, as he sat 94 mph on average (which is a far shout from the 91-92 mph pitcher we saw two years ago). He touched 96 on a strikeout. I will give some caution that this is probably a combination of knowing that his pitch count would be limited out of the bullpen, plus national audience juice, and that I wouldn't expect that velo moving forward. But the fastball caught my attention. More than the velocity, the thing that really caught my eye was placement of the fastball; Jordan Wicks is a different guy. Yes, the video above shows a pitch that the ESPN K-Zone suggests is a ball (Statcast had a different idea, suggesting it clipped the zone), but it highlights a few things. First, it's his highest-velo pitch of the day at 96.1 mph, but also, we can see how he is using the fastball now, throwing it up in the zone. When Wicks first came up, his game was a pretty simple one: fastball (usually a sinker) down, changeup down, get groundballs. We can see that just from looking at his first game, way back in August 2023 against the Pirates. Pay attention to where the red dots (fastball), orange dots (sinker) and green dots (changeup) are. The latter two are located almost exclusively in the low-and-away corner of the zone, while the fastball sat middle and in on the hands. Compare how he attacked hitters in 2023 to how he attacked the Cardinals Sunday night. You'll see a few sinkers down and away, but all of a sudden, the fastball is up (red is once again the fastball, green the changeup). He largely stays away from boring in on the hands of hitters the way he used to, and now focuses far more on the top third of the zone. It changes the eyeline of the hitters. No longer can you key in on an entire third of the plate. Now, you must defend up against the fastball and down against a change, sweeper, or slider. The more you can make a hitter consider, the better chance you have to catch them off-guard. His fastball shape, as well, was different. He's getting a pretty decent amount of glove-side cut. In other words, his four-seam fastball is acting more like a cut fastball. That's an interesting highly Cubs-coded development. How he continues to use his slightly different shape will be something to follow. Not only is the fastball different, but the lefty is flashing a different pitch arsenal. It's not a complete revolution—at his core, Wicks is still a fastball-changeup guy—but he's showing a slider/sweeper more than he has in the past. Five of his 41 pitches were in the sweeper/slider category, which can help add a chase/whiff pitch to his arsenal. Shota Imanaga uses a sweeper to add a little something extra to his fastball/splitter combination, using it just enough to make you know he has it, and Wicks adding in a horizontal mover is just enough to keep your eyes from zoning in on north-south. Since Wicks (unlike Imanaga) also has glove-side action on the fastball, he can use his slider a bit the way Justin Steele uses his, as well: to keep hitters reading any sidespin or glove-side movement from knowing which pitch they're seeing. Following other Cubs pitchers (such as Colin Rea), he's not using the sinker very much anymore, either, and I'm okay with that. Sinkers have terrible splits against opposite-handed hitters (though they can be used to attack same-sided hitters). For Wicks, this creates a pretty glaring issue. Wicks is left-handed, and most hitters he'll see as a starter or long reliever will be right-handed. The league has figured out that left-handed hitters just don't hit left-handed pitchers very well, so Wicks can expect a heavy dosage of righty muscle when he pitches. The result? Only two sinkers Sunday night, which is the correct game plan. The Cubs' lefthander had already begun to decrease his sinker usage in 2024, but seeing him dump the pitch against righties in his return to the bigs was encouraging. I'm going to stop short of telling you to go out and buy a Jordan Wicks Authentic replica jersey, and remind you that Sunday night was a 41-pitch outing that didn't last four full innings. His velocity was likely a bit higher than we should expect moving forward, and he did only generate four whiffs, so it wasn't as if he was entirely domineering. We'll need to see more of this before Wicks becomes a staple in Chicago for the remained of the 2025 season. But I will say that I am excited about the continued development. Throwing 94-96 mph out of the bullpen makes me more interested in Wicks as a member of the pen, if they choose to go that route. His fastball placement with that velocity, even more so. He's also done enough at Iowa that getting him a few looks as a starter is something I'd advocate for. He's been pretty great in Iowa, and he's clearly a different version of himself than we've seen in the past. I doubt that he's going to change the entire rotation dynamic, but no one is asking him to. If Wicks can simply be another Rea, that would be great. I know it's been a bit since we have seen Wicks have sustained success in the majors, but he's a former first-round pick; has flirted with being a top-100 prospect; and has had successful short stints already. Add in some cool changes in how he's attacking hitters, and I think the Cubs might have something here. What did you think of Jordan Wicks' first appearance of the season Sunday night? Did you notice the fastball velocity or placement? Would you rather see him in the rotation or in the bullpen? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

25% is probably unlikely over any season statline. But over his last 134 PA's, his K% has dropped to 25.8%, which is a non-significant sample size. Over his last 222 his K% is 28.2%, which, for Caissie's batted ball, is likely more than good enough. Caissie hits the ball so well that he should maintain an above average BABIP despite the size; quality batted ball increases BABIP ability and he's been a BABIP monster basically everywhere, even when he struck out mid 30's. I think those are great player comps though, for upper end Caissie. Realistically, an Owen Caissie who strikes out 28% of the time is likely a middle of the order bat no issue. The things that will keep him away from that is an inflated K% against MLB pitching over the 30% to the 35% mark. I will caution that I think his first 200-400 PA's could be rather ugly, he's had a tendency to struggle for a few months at most every level before "getting it". But if you're buying the whiff decrease (which is backed up behind both in zone an o-zone whiff) than I think there's a good enough reason to believe in him getting around that rate. I still would consider moving him at the deadline, he's not untouchable good. But I wouldn't trade him for a rental, and I would treat him like a top-40 or more prospect in a trade.

Poor fastball placement. Here are a few charts. The first two are 2024. Left is total fastball placement, right is fastball swing and miss location. Now, compare to 2025: He's leaving more fastballs down. This is bad in general, but worse for someone like Imanaga, who's fastball has significant ride. It floats up into the zone, right into the bat path. When you throw 90 and it trickles into the zone like that, you get HR's. He's still getting good whiff in-zone on the pitch, but he needs to elevate more frequently. What makes his fastball special is that the ride allows him to get over bats at the top-end of the zone. But he's missing it pretty consistently. His arm-angle is a bit lower this year than last year. Whether that's on purpose (the Cubs love lower arm slots) or just mechanical flaw, is hard to know. But it could also be playing into the slightly lower fastball placement, too.

In a weird way, Will Sanders reminds me of Colin Rea. I don't mean that in a particularly bad way, either, but he's kind of a "kitchen sink" kind of pitcher. Last night, per Statcast here are is pitch numbers: Fastball: 29 Change: 24 Slider: 18 Curve: 15 Sinker: 9 Cutter: 1 That's a pretty normal Statcast breakdown, too. He throws a lot of different types of pitches to create deception through numbers. You can never sit on a single pitch. I've never been personally wowed by any single offering, but you don't kind if he's going to throw his fastball, or his slider, or maybe it'll be a sinker, or what if changeup? Do think he'll have an MLB career in some fashion. I don't think there's a lot of ceiling, but that's okay. Think about where the Cubs would be without Colin Rea this year? Or Milwaukee the years prior when he was their top inning eater. There is value in compiling in a day and age of TJS.

It depends on how likely you are to believe in the upwards trajectory. There's some pretty compelling data to suggest that there has been improvement in how he controls the zone and makes contact. You can see that here in this chart. The in-zone contact is on a pretty strong incline while he's seeing his rolling whiff% has dropped all season. z-swing seems to vacillate a bit, but that's not bad or anything. Here is his swinging% as well. Again, obvious downward trajectory. If you believe this data, and you believe he has made progress in contact ability, than Caissie is a legitimate middle of the order bat. His batted ball data is bananas Look at the horsefeathers damage the dude does on fastballs! He makes some of the loudest contact you can find, which despite his size should allow him to be a bit of a BABIP monster. If his K% sits at like, 27% he's a legitimate threat to be 40% better than league average with the bat making him not only viable in RF, but viable at 1b or DH. However if you're of the mind that he's simply at a point where 800+ PA's and is a bit comfortable against Triple-A pitching, than maybe you don't believe in the contact progress . I think I believe in the progress myself. This isn't a blip and it's pretty consistent. That suggests progress.

Tommy Birch: Leg injury he's been dealing with for a few weeks.

Not one bit. This is incredibly odd. And the strangest thing is how quiet everything is. I try not to use X much now a days, but even on X, there's no discussion about it. Really, really, really odd.

Yeah this is a weird one. He wasn't hitting the inning before. "Defensive sub". That one is out of no where. Announcers seem completely miffed.

Jordan Bastian is hearing it's load management. I think we're in the clear.