Jason Ross

Alcantara is an interesting case. His LOB% is ridiculously low, lower than Mike Soroka who I just wrote about on the main page. Unlike Soroka, Miami's defense is more neutral and likely not a major cause but also isn't helping him. Stuff+ and velocity suggest he's just fine. His K% and control are issues. We're one start removed from Dany Syzmborski (the creator of ZiPS) writing this article suggesting Sandy is coming around. I think a smart team will have a fix. You almost certainly have to give up to get Sandy, so I would expect they would have to give up a Caissie or a Wiggins. But I also think if the Cubs do that, than the feeling we should have is that the Cubs are a smart team who have a fix. The stuff is there which fully suggests this is fixable.

I wouldn't trade Ben Brown for a rental either.

Michael Soroka you say?

He *was* starting but a good reason they sent him down was to conserve innings. He didn't pitch for a few weeks and hasn't fully stretched back out. His first start back was just 2 innings.

Even if they dont snag him in July, he would be someone Id would be interested in during the Winter. He fits a similar category as Boyd. Different reasons (Boyd was undervalued due to injury) but there is a dude here I feel.

Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images With each passing day, the Cubs' need for at least one more starting pitcher to round out the rotation becomes more clear. Recently, there have been multiple bullpen games, or games started by the likes of Chris Flexen. Monday will see Ryan Brasier serve as the opener for the return (gulp) of Ben Brown. While you must do what you must mid-season, the Cubs are now dead level with the Milwaukee Brewers at the start of a 63-game sprint to the finish. Going with this type of a hole in the rotation feels unsustainable. The problem the Cubs (and every other contending team) face is that, with expanded playoffs, more and more teams feel as though they are "in it" and can make magic happen over the final two months. This means that in the days prior to the deadline, they can conceivably charge a higher price to buy them out of this slim chance to sneak into the postseason. Put another way: fewer teams are defined sellers, which leaves fewer obvious places for the Cubs to go buying without having to pay a premium. This makes a team like the Washington Nationals (whom FanGraphs currently gives a 0.0% chance to make the playoffs) all the more attractive. Much of the discourse around the Nationals and trades will obviously revolve around their ace starting pitcher, MacKenzie Gore. Gore has transformed himself into one of the premier left-handed hurlers in the game, and with multiple years of control, he would cost a ton of prospect capital if they are swayed to move him. The Cubs could probably field their price, but it could create a problem: would they have enough to solve their other issues? Beyond Gore, there would appear to be no obvious candidates on the roster whom the team would be willing to move (Bradley Lord looks the part, but is 25 and under control for six years) and who are productive (outside of Lord and Gore, the best ERA of any starter on the Nationals sits over 4.50). But, what if I told you that despite the bad production in traditional statistics, the team did have a pitcher I would run out in a playoff game? Enter: Michael Soroka. A former farmhand of the Atlanta Braves, Soroka was viewed as a top-five organizational prospect half a decade ago, but since then, he has struggled to find footing in the highest level of competition baseball has to offer. (Perhaps that's unfortunate phrasing, since an Achilles injury was a major reason for his struggles to become a consistent presence.) Since his sensational, 4-fWAR season back in 2019, injuries have derailed him. Eventually, Atlanta essentially gave up on Soroka, who was moved to the Chicago White Sox for reliever Aaron Bummer, and then was released from the Chicago-based organization just one year later. In his one year on the South Side, he showed poor chase rates, high walk rates, surrendered lots of barrels and provided little to get one excited about his future. On top of that, the optics of getting released from the team who set an MLB record for incompetence are, frankly, pretty bad. Soroka's career was on the ropes. However, Soroka found refuge with another bottom-dweller for the 2025 season, signing a one-year "prove-it" deal with the Washington Nationals—likely his last real chance to show that he's a pitcher worthy of an MLB roster spot. How's it going? Well, if you relied on his ERA for the season, you'd probably come to the conclusion that not much has changed, and that he was likely even closer to being finished. On the season, Soroka's ERA currently sits above 5.00, but I don't think that's a fair reflection of how he's pitched. After all, ERA takes more into account than just Michael Soroka. It can take into account the entire team—a team tied for the second-worst record in the National League. Usually, bad teams are bad for a reason. Maybe they hit poorly, or they have bad pitching. In the Nationals' case, they can't field anything. Currently, the team sits 27th in baseball with -27 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Being just "bad" would be an improvement; this is a team who has seemingly forsaken the idea of defense in general. This likely factors into Soroka's inflated ERA, as his strand rate is comically low, sitting as the 12th worst in baseball. This isn't the pitcher's fault, if the defense cannot and will not help him out on balls in play or even make routine plays. Soroka's expected ERA is 3.22, and his xFIP is 3.90. It's pretty clear that Soroka is far better than his ERA would suggest, and pointing the finger at the eight players who share a field with him at any given time is probably fair. But even going beyond just playing the blame game on his defensive counterparts, Soroka has made significant changes under the hood that point to his improvement as a pitcher, including ones that I suspect the Cubs would find interesting. His velocity has been rebounding, getting better than even it was in 2019, when it averaged 92.9 mph on the gun. Last year, the righty's velocity jumped half a mph to 93.5, and this season he's jumped to 94 mph. It's not just velocity, though; he's changed his mechanics. From 2024 to 2025, Soroka has dropped his arm slot around 5°. This has helped him, specifically with his slider and getting extra sweep on the pitch, away from right-handed hitters. Statcast even classifies the pitch as a "slurve" now, instead of a slider, due to the movement. Regardless of the classification, the results speak for themselves. The pitch has an expected opponent weighted on base average (xwOBA) of .206 and a whiff rate of 37.4%. Below is Soroka getting one of the most dangerous pitchers in baseball to swing over the top of the pitch. He gets significant movement and depth on it, and Shohei Ohtani swings over it helplessly. On the day, Soroka got 16 swings and misses, an impressive number against (arguably) the best lineup in baseball. Soroka's new arm slot, and his increased usage of his four-seam heater (up to 44.4% from 32.3% last season) would likely interest the Cubs. The Cubs have tinkered with pitchers this season in both regards—most notably, Colin Rea. Rea has seen a massive uptick in fastball usage, while also lowering his own arm slot; the hard work on that front with Soroka is done for the Cubs. With his lower angle, Soroka may be capable of cutting the baseball more, playing with seams (such as Cade Horton) or could develop a better changeup (say, the kick-change Jameson Taillon uses?), all of which are things the Cubs have history with as well. While I wouldn't advocate Soroka be the only pitcher the Cubs acquire in the upcoming time prior to the trade deadline, I think a smart organization will see the ERA Soroka is sporting is a mirage and hiding the true improvement. He should also be relatively cheap. The surface-level numbers do influence asking price. The Nationals have no reason to even pretend they can still make a playoff run, and Soroka is a free agent at year's end, making him a true rental. With his changes and a better defense, Soroka is miles better than Chris Flexen and the bullpen, and very well may be more trustworthy than even Jameson Taillon in a playoff series. So I'm begging anyone to save Michael Soroka from Washington's pitiful defense, but I would also hope that the "someone" in this scenario is the Cubs. He's a tailor-made pitcher for the Cubs, and fits a need. There's upside, and probably some juice left to squeeze if the Cubs feel like they wanted to tinker a bit. But even as it is, he's made improvements that Washington just isn't capable of using effectively, and would improve most teams' rotations. Imagine if Soroka played in front of Matt Shaw, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Pete Crow-Armstrong and had the benefit of the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field. What do you think of Michael Soroka as a Cubs trade target? Do you think he would fit a need? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

Freddie Freeman just took a Jose Quintana fastball directly on the wrist and left down the clubhouse immediately. Concern is that it is broken.

PCA's defense and position make him a near must play. He affects the games in a way Busch cannot, even if not hitting. His position in the lineup is due is more for later in the game to split up lefties to avoid punching them up and encouraging a LHP form entering later and neutralizing him.

Probably an attempt to give him a little extra leeway to check growth while also being a little less than enamored with the results Turner has given. If Turner was crushing LHP, you'd probably give less time to Busch, but coupled together Busch has gotten more chances.

The Cubs and Counsell like to rotate R/L to force managers into tougher late inning choices. Lastly, if Busch ever earns the right to face a Crochet, we should be so lucky. Reality is most LHH league wide shouldnt face him. It's likely he never comes that close.

They have played him more frequently against LHP. But sitting him against one of the 10 or so best LHP in the game is not keeping training wheels on, either. This is an incredibly hard matchup for any LHH in baseball. His .216 wOBA against LHH is likely even hiding how good he's been; the only lefties who hit against him to begin with are the best LHH in the game and he crushes them. This is a bad matchup for Busch. Or any lefty.

Selfishly I'd like to see Horton get a chance to go at Boston, so I've got my hopes that the rain stays away and we get a killer pitching matchup today. Though realistically, it's probably more likely to help us today for rain to hit. Anecdotally, I am posting this from the Blue Line currently and while its overcast, it's dry downtown.

Crochet is a great pitcher who is even more brutal against LHH. He is top-10 or 15 as a LHP vs LHH of almost any data point you can image for any LHP with 10+IP against LHH. Much like @squally1313 put it yesterday when explaining (far more succincntly than myself could or did) sitting Matt Shaw for Vidal Brujan, if you aren't going to sit Michael Busch today, then when are you going to do so? Turner will likely have a rough go, as Crochet is just good against anyone, but Busch is probably a slightly worse bet than even Turner given the splits Crochet has.

Im going to work on a Soroka article over the next few days, so I'll see what I parse out. But my initial looks have me very high on the prospects of getting him outside of Washington. I think Cade Horton is a stud and likely the best pitching prospect the Cubs have had on paper since Mark Prior. His ability to have a plus fastball and plus, bordering plus plus sweeper with a plus changeup puts his ceiling among the top-20 best SP in baseball. His RPM mirror Dylan Cease except he doesnt have the walk issues. If he can clean up I zone command on his fastball, I think he is a monster. Matt Shaw's ceiling is that of a 115(or better) wRC+ 3b with plus glove skills. Now we have to see it more. His recent mechanical changes are getting me more and more hopeful. This is ceiling. Will either get there? Hard to tell. And frankly, probably not. Ceiling is hard to reach!

Yes, though what constitutes fan aggression and Jed aggression may be different. I'm sure fans will look at a Gallen/Suarez deal as very aggressive, especially based on name value, but there are other names that could better fit the roster and could also constitute an aggressive swing, it just might be less name-value wise. What I do think the Cubs will do is acquire at least one controlled player beyond 2025 and add one SP, likely one RP and one player capable of playing 3b (though suspect it will not be a Suarez starting type and more of a useful utility type capable of multi-position versatility). They might even add a second SP, but I think 3+ players will be headed to Chicago by the 31st. The Cubs are a little heavy on Iowa prospects with no clear route to MLB positions and will have to move some of them to better utilize their assets. Those prospects are too good to just go for three rentals. But what we may see as unexiting at first may have a lot of great under hood qualities. Think how unexicitng Boyd's signing was in December and how excited we are to see him take a mound now.

I doubt that the Cubs will target, say, a fixer upper. It is difficult to implement major changes mid-season and on the fly, harder given the time frame. The Cubs have plenty of room under the LT currently for 2025 and have a real shot to be a force. Jose Cuas is a good example of what can occur when you target mid-season changes. I don't hate the idea, but he needed time in Iowa to acclimate to a new mix. With the Cubs he really struggled to control his changes and it didn't work. That is a plan for a player you sign with a Spring Training to tinker and toy. Not a mid-year acquisition. Now, if you want an under the radar type who will be unimpressive on top line, but is actually pretty good, look at Washington's Mike Soroka. All of the peripherals scream breakout, including velocity increase, but his ERA sucks. This is almost assuredly based on pitching in front of the league's most atrocious defense leading to an unsustainable low left-on-base%. You probably don't need to tinker with him, just get him in front of a good defense and he has the look of a playoff caliber SP. I could see the Cubs going *that* route. He is a rental and should come cheaply. As an aside, he would be among the arms I could see the Cubs being interest in during the offseason as well. Age is on his side and his arrow appears to be pointing up.

I think he's a somewhat interesting reliever who could carve out a role somewhere if things broke for him. He is huge, at 6'7 and because of that struggles to control that much human. He had some cool arm slots and has some good movement on his stuff. Probably profiles more as "righty who gets out righties" more than anything, but that has value. He saw a few innings with the Cubs early when the pen was shaking out and it looked like he *might* stick at a point or two, but because he had an option year was someone the Cubs could move down and up without losing him where as others, like Chris Flexen did not. I wouldn't be shocked to see him find a spot on a team (maybe the Cubs?) next year. With the right injuries at the right time it could conceivably be this year! Though with Hodge hopefully coming back this year, and Brown and Horton who couldn't transition there and the deadline, it feels unlikely at this stage.

That guy again.

Hey, look at that guy.

Imanaga doesn't throw ground balls. Defense at 3b probably isnt a big factor. The Cubs chose a LHH to negate Bello versus the better glove (that isnt likely needed) who struggles against Bello's two most frequent pitches. It makes perfect sense. If vintage Kyle Hendricks was on the mound, a defensive 3b may have tipped the scales the other way.

Imanaga is one of the lowest GB% pitchers in baseball.

There is this odd thing that Cubs fans do. They will on one hand complain that the Cubs don't do everything to win, will handwring over every lineup decision. Then when the Cubs make a data based decision that they "don't like" will complain about that, too. Yeah, Brujan sucks. Shaw is bad against sinkers and Bello is bad against LHH. Its fine. This is coming from the #1 Matt Shaw Fan Club guy. Its okay he isnt starting today.

It's almost as if that Bryan Bello guy isn't so good against LHH, or something.

Instead of that, I would like to focus in on Ian Happ. Can we talk about him?