Jason Ross

Yeah, I think Carson Kelly is a super obvious one. But his name has popped up in trade conversations and well, you know. People love running wild.

Top 10 in baseball in K%, top-15 in xFIP.

Keep an eye on the Iowa lineup. There's someone quite notable reportedly missing from the lineup. 👀

Feels less "reporting" and more "speculation" but a Cubs shout here is worth a repost. in my book.

Yeah. I think the Tigers just really, really like River Ryan. That's my best read.

Again, it feels rushed if you don't love the package. But there comes a point where: 1. If you love the package 2. Believe that the Rays and the Brewers are maxed out That you just get it over with. The Tigers still have to move Mize and getting one done and dusted is important in that. They've set the market; that helps with the Mize thing, too.

Clay Holmes is scheduled to start a rehab start today, too. Lots of good hug-watch moments.

Lineup. Read into it as you see fit: - Pedro is in the lineup - Kelly is not in the lineup (I'd guess it's nothing but hey. free country out there)

Trying to trade? No. But willing to trade either for the right package? Yes. They're both available, however. The Cubs have a unique situation where they could offer the right now offense (not Suzuki) that could push them off.

They probably really liked that package.

Yes. Per Rosenthal. That doesn't mean he will be traded, they clearly are under no pressure to make it happen, but per Ken the Mariners would still be open to a Hancock or Kirby trade.

This is where I'm at. Detmers or Kirby is till a really good result. Skubal is the best pitcher game-by-game available, but those two guys are exciting in their own right. Detmers is top-10 in K% in the league right now, Kirby is a 4 win pitcher when things are optimal. And they're controlled for years.

I'm hoping that this means they're really involved in George Kirby. He's not as good as Skubal on a per-game ability, but 2.5 years of him would be very exciting.

He's had a weird career. Drafted by SD in the 11th round out of a small school in NC. Played infield in college as well as threw a little, transitioned to a two-way player as a senior after being an infielder only, essentially. Traded to LAD in a small trade for Matt Beaty. TJS in 2025. Long route as he learned the position and missed significant time with injury. More injuries now. Big time stuff, however.

Per Rosenthal, Sammon, Sharma and Mooney today: - Cubs still hope to add three arms - Not trading Suzuki - Highly unlikely to trade Kelly but would if a team "bowled them over". Source

It's easy to imagine they wouldn't have just countered anything. It's as easy as it is to imagine the other because imagination is just what it is; not reality. We realistically have no idea what the Dodgers were going to do, it's best not to assume otherwise. Instead what we know right now: 1. The Dodgers offered prospects, based on how the industry views them, as "surplus to needs". Hope is routinely the third ranked OF'er in their system 2. The Brewers and Rays did not offer a package that was deemed more than the Dodgers to Scott Harris and the Tigers. 3. What the Dodgers offered seems to line up with historic trends for this type of a move. This could have been because of lots of reasons. Maybe Harris loves River Ryan; certainly plausible he has some of the best Stuff+ in all of the MiLB and it's easy to dream on. Maybe the Brewers and the Rays didn't offer more or wouldn't budge; certainly plausible with how the two handle prospects and may need them. There are far more. I think had the Brewers and the Rays been as convinced as you are here that they would have just kept beating their offers, that they probably would have forced that hand. Why wouldn't you force the Dodgers to trade more if it's as simple as "everyone knows they were just going to keep going"? Make 'em do it. So I'm not sure it's as cut and dry. My entirely uninformed opinion is that the Tigers like the Dodgers' package more than some do. If you see River Ryan as a front line SP who's ready to jump into a rotation right now, I think it's hard to beat the Dodgers' offer of a COF bat and that. If you're skeptical about the health and the age on River Ryan, than you got a non-premium position prospect and a 28 year old with a lot of reliever risk. I'm more in the second camp. My uninformed opinion is that Harris is in the former more than the latter.

This package isn't so strong they forced the Tigers hand. It matched up pretty much with historic trades for expiring aces as explained today on BA. Secondly the Dodgers have the oldest position group in baseball. They will need to replace those players somehow and they won't do it all through FA. They can't just empty their system out and bottom out. They were able to move Hope, specifically, because they have two better OF prospects. They didn't get those out of thin air, either. The Dodgers offered a good package that they could offer and matched up with historic trends. Other teams didn't beat it. We don't need to create narratives.

It's a good option, sure. But it's the same general wRC+ as Ryan O'Hearn, Casey Schmidt, Taylor Ward, and Ezekial Duran none of whom are stars. And we don't even know if he's going to be a 115 wRC+ hitter. That feels like a really good outcome and would put him as a top-5 hitting 2b. Maybe we shouldn't assume that's the outcome; I think a 100-105 wRC+ is a more likely outcome and would put him as a very uninspiring COF.

And to just pile on this; Carlos Collazo just wrote an article for BA about how the return for Skubal matches up favorably with how historic prices for aces on expiring deals are traded for. Source A lot of why it feels light is because of how good the Dodgers' system is viewed.

I really like Pedro. I made the allegory yesterday that you don't name the cow you're going to eat, and I think by having him on the MLB roster, there's a bit of that going on. It's a lot easier to trade "top prospect in Knoxville or Iowa I don't watch every day (possibly ever)" than "guy who I saw take a big PA yesterday in Wrigley Field" much like it's a lot harder to eat a burger if you met the cow and gave it a name. If I'm taking that out of it: Pedro Ramirez remains a tradeable piece. He's probably an infielder and not an OF'er, he hasn't shown a ton of power in his career outside of like 45 days in Iowa, there's enough overlap with Shaw...if he turns into a controllable SP you have to do it.

The Brewers and the Rays also get added benefits of draft picks and safety from being bad. If the Dodgers are going to leverage their finances, these teams need to somewhat leverage their ability to continue to develop and add more talent in the draft. I think if the Brewers are too afraid to trade prospects like Luis Lara for A Skubal/Miz 1-2 punch in the playoffs in 2026, than I think they're going to struggle to ever really put themselves in the best spot for the playoffs. If they think a cheap trade for Freddy Peralta is ultimately better, than I think they're missing a real opportunity. Ohtani is ailing. You already have the best RHP in baseball and a handful of really fun prospects even if you trade some...go for it. Do it now. As of now, I'll assume that the Brewers could have and realistically, should have had an offer to beat that. If they did and the Tigers took this one? Well, then I'll be a lot more kind to the Brewers in that respect. Teams sometime value prospects weirdly and if the Tigers just love themselves some River Ryan...there's only so much you can do there.

That's about what those types go for: unproven teenage lottery tickets.

Yeah, I think if there's anything Cubs-related to come out of this trade it's that the price for SP's probably isn't as insane as we think it might be. There's a possibility this is just a weird "Scott Harris super overvalues this package" type of a thing (and I think he may just overvalue River Ryan) but it makes me think the Detmers/Kirby prices have to be a bit more reasonable than maybe we thought they would be. Rojas/Shaw/Ramirez should be more than enough to lead a trade (I'd have all of them around the value of Zyhir Hope as a prospect) and we should have enough to pair a good secondary piece to out value Ryan/Smith. You should be able to grab one of them with the price on Skubal set.

I doubt it. The Tigers just, for whatever reason, really liked this package. If you ask me, I think they got a little tunnel vision on "MLB ready SP" and over rate River Ryan's value because he's MLB ready and can step into a rotation tomorrow. They were never getting Emmett Sheehan, and this was the next best "ready" SP they had to offer (the Brewers have a lot of younger prospects but no arms ready like Ryan, for example). We will get a handful of "we tried" rumors today of what Milwaukee was offering or the Rays and I have a feeling I'll end up, personally preferring those offers (I don't love River Ryan). But my strong assumption here is Harris got stuck on the pitcher and went this way because of it.