Jason Ross

Really appreciate it! Me and @Josh Illes had a real fun time doing this.

Really appreciate it! It was a lot of fun to do with Josh. Look forward to doing it again.

Foolish Baseball (awesome channel if you don't subscribe, highly recommended) recently did a video on count and it's importance on outcome. While the video is awesome, there's a great section on the second half which breaks the plate down to "heart" and "shadow". Command matters; pitchers who hit the shadow do far better than pitchers who throw in the heart. I ran some data, and looking at the data, while hitters still hit well on pitches in the mid-mid part of the plate regardless of velocity (hitters are still hitting to the tune of a .327 wOBA on pitches 97-100 mph in the middle), the margin for error clearly increases with velocity as well. In zone whiff numbers increase at every interval of 3+mph from 91-94 all the way to 100mph+, and wOBA decreases in a similar fashion. The wOBA, for example, on 91-94mph mid-mid was .408. So while clearly command is quite important and avoiding middle-middle is incredibly important, velocity appears to give pitchers quite a bit of latitude,. Essentially, if you're not going to throw hard, you better damn well have excellent command.

We're on the final part of our roundtable of top Cubs prospect rankings, and we've already had a few surprises. Will there be a surprise at the number one spot? Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports We're on the final part of our roundtable of top Cubs prospect rankings, and we've already had a few surprises. Will there be a surprise at the number one spot? After a solid roundtable, we're finally on the most exciting part: our final five rankings. With a few surprises and differences along the way, do @Josh Illes or I have any final surprises for you? Ensure you're caught up by reading our first three parts before you look at part four, so you're not missing anything! Cubs Prospects 16-20 Cubs Prospects 11-15 Cubs Prospects 6-10 Jason's 5th Ranked Prospect: Owen Caissie, RF/1B/DH You have no idea how much it pains me to put Owen Caissie fifth and not higher, but that reflects the system and not how I feel about the Canadian. Caissie has many of the makings of an elite power prospect: his exit velocities are already good enough to rank at the top of MLB (not just minor league) lists. He’s got the body and the swing, as well, to go with the exit velocities to generate 30, 35, or even 40+ home run power down the road. It’s easy to point to Caissie’s strikeout rate when discussing flaws in his game. Still, I think these are generally overblown, as he had to deal with being one of the youngest players in the entire system and the pre-tacked baseball the Southern League introduced in the first half of the 2024 season. A deeper dive does suggest Caissie is likely a platoon player down the road. Still, it also shows that against RHP and with a regular baseball, Caissie doesn’t have strikeout issues everywhere, finishing the second half with an impressive 24 K% against right-handed pitchers. This isn't a bad outcome, with the league increasingly leaning into platoons. Where Caissie eventually settles is a good question: he’s made real improvements in the right field. However, combining other prospects and his body may eventually cause him to shift to a first base or a designated hitter role. But here’s the thing…I’m not sure I care. This is what elite power prospects look like, and the Cubs haven’t had a pure masher like this come through the system in nearly a decade. I’m excited to see the Big Red Machine debut, which could come as soon as August of 2024, though I think 2025 is a more conservative and likely timeline. Josh's 5th Ranked Prospect: Michael Busch, INF There are questions about Michael Busch. Can he play third? Can he play second? Can he play first? Will he prefer an Italian Beef over a French Dip? And so on. But one thing about Michael Busch that is not in question is that he can hit. He can hit. He can hit for both average and power. The 26-year-old Busch was acquired by the Cubs last month and is expected to open the 2024 season in Chicago as either the Opening Day first baseman or DH. Up until now, he has only had a cup of coffee in the Majors with the Dodgers, having been chiefly blocked at the major league level by Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and all the other all-stars the Dodgers have on their roster. With the Cubs, he will finally get to prove he belongs. Drafted in 2019 out of North Carolina, he played almost exclusively at first for the Tar Heels, but to be fair to Busch, he was a shortstop in high school and was expected to play shortstop at UNC eventually. The main reason that didn’t happen is because, as a freshman, he could hit the ball so well that the coaching staff had to find a place for him to play, and that place at that time was first. So play there, he did. And he hit. And they kept him there, and he thrived. And to be fair, he doesn’t profile as a shortstop, so there is something to be said for the move to first base being the correct one. However, he still displays much of that athleticism that made him a top-ranked high school shortstop in Minnesota, and even as late as last season, there were a lot of Dodgers prospect rankers who believed he could, and maybe should, be given a chance at the hot corner. I’m not sure if he will get that chance now that he’s moved to the Cubs, but I do know that the Cubs have many questions regarding who will fill that position this season, so maybe Busch will end up providing an answer. Jason's 4th Ranked Prospect: Michael Busch, 1B/2B/3B I like Michael Busch, and multiple industry rankings do, too (as Busch ranked in the top 50 for both MLB.com Pipeline and Baseball America). He will be an excellent major-league hitter after getting more and more into the weeds. While he struggled in his initial callup, much like Matt Mervis, who I ranked much lower, Busch’s processes are much better than Mervis's, leading me to be much more confident. With contact rates above 80% and a very discerning eye, the former Dodger does things right at the plate. Even though he struggled at times in 2022 against velocity, by 2023, the lefty seemingly got much better against these pitches at the Triple-A level. We know contact rate correlates highly to MLB success (and correlates highly from Triple A to MLB), which again fills me with confidence about his ability to hit at the highest level. I think it's unlikely that Busch ever establishes himself as a long-term third baseman due to his defensive limitations, but the Cubs worked wonders with Nick Madrigal. So, I can’t entirely discount that. Even if he’s just a first baseman, there’s a ton to like and think he’s capable of being a 120+ wRC+ hitter. It was a steep price to pay, Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope, to acquire the first baseman, but I think it’ll work out. Josh's 4th Ranked Prospect: Kevin Alcantara, OF I can’t decide if my favorite thing about Alcantara is his nickname (The Jaguar) or if it’s the first player I ever saw him compared to (Darryl Strawberry). Eventually, I assume, my favorite thing about him will be the sight of him crushing opposite-field home runs at Wrigley Field, but for now, I’ll call it a tie. The Cubs have pretty clear top 3 prospects, so this spot at number four is mostly a ceiling play for me, and I like Alcantara’s ceiling. He is a plus field, plus arm, plus hit tool, plus power, and speed. In other words, he has all five tools. That’s the ceiling, and from there, the questions are about the likelihood that he can become a five-tool player at the MLB level. He still has some work to do to get there. Last season saw him hold his own with moments of dominance at High A as a 20/21-year-old before getting a late-season call-up to Double-A Tennessee. This year, he will likely be with the Smokies all season, and it will be interesting to see what struggles, if any, he has. He will probably strike out a lot. He has at every level so far. He sits dead red at the plate and likes to lay off anything off-speed, so if the Southern League pitchers decide to beat him with breaking balls, he will need to adjust. If he makes that adjustment, he will be fine; if he doesn’t make it, he won’t be ranked this high at this time next year. It’s as simple as that. Jason's 3rd Ranked Prospect: Matt Shaw, INF Matt Shaw was different from the guy I was most excited about heading into the 2023 draft, but after some deep dives, I got it. I preferred the Arizona Diamondbacks selection of Tommy Troy in the category of “undersized infield prospect with power” at the time of the draft, but I’m willing to admit…I think I got these guys flip-flopped and probably would instead take Shaw. Shaw came out on fire last year, blasting through South Bend and landing with the Smokies for their playoff run. Shaw will likely see Iowa sooner rather than later as a prospect who will continue to move fast. His biggest question will be his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, but Shaw boasts plus-contact and plus-power to go with the aggressive approach. Shaw has multiple “swings” with a minor leg kick with two strikes, which should help keep the K’s down even if the aggressive approach is never fully remedied. Many have suggested that his path to MLB lies at second base (even Shaw compared himself to Dustin Pedroia in a post-draft interview). Still, the former Terrapin has spent the offseason primarily working at third base. Shaw doesn’t have the best arm, but the Cubs have an organizational need, as of writing this article, for the position in the long term. It may be an internal battle between BJ Murray and Shaw to claim the long-term position. Industry and pedigree give Shaw the inside edge here (if he can answer the questions about arm strength), but there’s no guarantee he’s the winner or can even overtake Murray (who should start a level higher in 2024) on the way to Wrigley. That said, Shaw already looks like a “win” of a draft pick early. Josh's 3rd Ranked Prospect: Matt Shaw, INF Some pretty clear themes emerge when you dive deep into the scouting reports on Shaw, where words like “competitive,” “aggressive,” “determined,” and “underdog” litter the pages. The former collegiate shortstop is now a promising third base prospect in the minor leagues for the Cubs after they took him in the first round of last year’s draft. At 5’11” and 185 pounds, Shaw isn’t technically undersized to play the hot corner, but he may need every single one of those attributes above to play there at an exceptional level. He had an exceptional career at Maryland, breaking the school record for home runs as a sophomore in 2022, hitting 22. As a junior, he broke his record this past season, mashing 24 long balls. He played well during the college season and even better in the Cape Cod League. He hit to the tune of a slash line of .360/.432/.574, along with ten doubles, two triples, five home runs, and 21 stolen bases in just 36 games with the Bourne Braves in the summer of 2022. That performance led to him being named the Cape Cod Summer Player of the Year and vaulted him up draft boards heading into 2023. Scouts are somewhat mixed on his ultimate position defensively. The questions surrounding his arm at shortstop had more to do with the mechanics of his arm slot than with actual arm strength, so the move to third makes sense, as a slightly slower transfer coupled with a strong arm will still play at third. That said, I’m not sure any infield position has been completely ruled out, and it will be interesting to see what Craig Counsell does with him in the spring, as the club has announced that Shaw received a non-roster invite to Spring Training. Jason's 2nd Ranked Prospect: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF Before you think it: this isn’t shiny-new-toy-syndrome or prospect fatigue…I was considering this as far back as July of 2023. That’s not an indictment of PCA, but just how impressed I am with Cade Horton. But this isn’t about Cade; this is about Pete, and I think we need to remember just how good of a prospect Crow-Armstrong is. He’s a legitimate 80-grade glove, a 75 or 80-grade runner, and has 20 home run power. I remain concerned with his plate approach, as I find him to be hyper-aggressive and in the wrong way. The good news is that he’s shown the ability to grow and learn: the Cubs entirely revamped his swing, and he took to it like a fish in water, so his ability to learn from a rough first call up with the Cubs is very possible. What’s more concerning than the short stint in the bigs was his 67% contact rate in his first go in Triple-A. I hope that PCA can take some lumps and learn how to pick out better pitches to swing at. He's a freak of an athlete. Even if he can’t entirely revamp the plate approach, there’s an accessible two-win floor with his speed, defense, and power. It might not always be pretty, but he’d be a helpful player at a premium position. However, if he can work on the approach, there’s still a significant upside. If that takes, there’s a better version of someone like Javier Baez here, and the lefty would be a legitimate threat to break five wins in a few seasons. Whether or not he gets there, PCA will likely find his way to Chicago early in the 2024 season. While the Cubs still may end up adding Cody Bellinger into the mix, there remains an obvious path for him to see tons of plate appearances in Chicago. Josh's 2nd Ranked Prospect: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF The prospect ranks love PCA. Fangraphs has him ranked 14th overall. Keith Law has him ranked 18th at The Athletic. Baseball Prospectus has him ranked 20th. MLB Pipeline has him 16th. The consensus ranking among all prospects in baseball has PCA somewhere around 15th overall. That seems right, although I may have him closer to the top 10 if I did an overall ranking. Every one of those sites also has him ranked as the top prospect in the Cubs system, which I'm afraid I have to disagree with. I have him at number two, which has nothing to do with PCA. I like someone else even more. When PCA made his MLB debut in September last year, it culminated everything we have seen him do in the Cubs organization since they traded Javy Baez and Trevor Williams for him at the trade deadline 2021. We have seen him play excellent defense in center field. We have seen him steal bases. We have seen his rapid left-handed bat spray balls all over the field. The fact that he was mainly unable to replicate any of these things in Chicago over the last month of the season is irrelevant to me. I put almost all of that on David Ross. Ross showed time and time again that his flaw as a manager was helping young players adjust to the big leagues, but what he did in September with PCA, Luke Little, and Alexander Canario was next-level bad. I haven’t adjusted PCA’s potential ceiling based on that limited sample size. If anything, I think he can take that experience and learn something from it. I think he should be given the starting center fielder job on day one of the 2024 season, and he won’t give it back for a long, long time. Jason's 1st Ranked Prospect: Cade Horton, SP I just really like Cade Horton, guilty as charged. I’ve liked him for a while, and I’m finally willing to say he’s the best prospect in the Cubs' system. We talk a lot about the floor from Pete Crow-Armstrong, but I think we should probably mention the floor of Cade Horton, too. Barring a significant arm injury, Horton’s fastball/slider combination would lead you to believe his worst-case outcome is a leverage reliever, and while this isn’t as sexy as “ace starting pitcher,” that isn’t far off from “speed and defense center fielder,” which is the floor we’ve given PCA. I’m willing to rank Horton above Crow-Armstrong because I feel more confident about the former reaching his 90/95% outcome now than the latter. Horton hasn’t had a chance to throw at Triple A, but his biggest hurdles were developing the changeup and his health, and I think he’s further along those changes than Crow-Armstrong is in developing and maturing his plate approach. If it feels pedantic or shaving hairs…it is…but that’s what you have to do with rankings. Indeed, they're more like a 1a and 1b ranking than anything, but I’m giving the nod to Horton for this exercise. Horton has an actual ace upside, and I love watching him work. There’s a bit of an attitude he carries himself with that you don’t see often; it can lead to some flaws where he tries to overpower hitters with his fastball (a bit of polish I’d like to see him work on), but it also makes him…just fun. With the burgeoning changeup, Horton has almost everything you could ask from a starting pitching prospect. I’m excited about many things in 2024, but Cade Horton’s first start might be the thing I’m most excited about. Josh's 1st Ranked Prospect: Cade Horton, SP When I look at Cade Horton, I see an ace. He’s the best Cubs pitching prospect since Mark Prior. Many folks have said both of those things; I'm not the first, but whenever I hear that, my mind immediately goes to the fact that if that is true, then Horton is the best prospect in the system. Granted, PCA is very, very good. His ceiling is a perennial All-Star center fielder, but Horton has the potential to be more than that, and he has quickly shown that his ceiling is very much within reach. When the Cubs drafted him with the 7th overall pick in the 2022 draft, it was seen as a bit of a reach. He had missed all of his freshman season at Oklahoma with Tommy John surgery and had only pitched a little in 2022. But that minor pitching he did was on a vast stage, namely the College World Series, where he struck out 13 without walking anyone in 7 ⅓ innings of the title game. It has quickly become apparent that his success in that game was no fluke as he has flown through the Cubs system in just one year, reaching Double A by the end of last season without so much a stumble. His stuff is electric. He has a plus fastball with good movement that sits around 95 mph but can touch 98. His slider is downright nasty at around 86 mph with a hard break, a pitch that he is unafraid to throw in or out of the zone. He also throws an average curve and changeup, either of which should be capable of being developed into a quality third pitch in his arsenal. In my mind, Horton is precisely what this Cubs pitching staff needs to compete right away, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were sitting at the top of the rotation as early as the end of this season, leading them in the playoffs. Are you surprised that we both have Horton as our number 1 prospect? Do you think we're seeing prospect fatigue? Do you agree or disagree with us? Please drop us a comment below to let us know how we did! View full article

As a personal Cade Horton-stan, I'm just excited we have two prospects in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton who we can have a legitimate debate about being 1.1 in our system. If you're team PCA, or team Cade, I don't think it really matters so much as the idea that there's the ability to be split in which camp you sit. Both players will make MLB debuts in 2024, both are industry top-40, if not higher guys. Both have legitimate 4 fWAR upside with solid floors. This is a good time for the system.

Cade HortonPete Crow-ArmstrongMatt ShawMichael BuschOwen CaissieKevin AlcantaraMoises BallesterosJordan WicksJefferson RojasBen BrownJames TriantosLuke LittleBJ Murray JrAlexander CanarioJaxon WigginsMatt MervisMichael AriasDrew GrayLuis Vazquez

This feels like an ad patch announcement. It's going to make the natives very restless, based on the comments, when it has nothing to do with Bellinger.

I'd imagine it's a combination of a few things. We live in a more forward thinking game today where pitcher and player health is more en vogue; teams are hyper aware of pitching injuries in a way even 30 years ago we were only just starting to think about. Maximizing innings is far more important today than it was previously. Secondly, with the invention/integration of things like pitch labs and technology across the sport, development has moved from the binary "on the mound or not developing" more to things like visualizations, data, and the like. You don't have to watch a guy throw a slider over and over again to decide how it moves...you can throw it in the lab a few times, get the RPM on the spin rate, the horizontal and vertical movement, and you've got a wealth of information; more than the former with significantly less done by the pitcher. So you only need a guy to throw 3 IP in April in Iowa versus going 6 IP every time.

I think the issue here is that you're assuming age = progression when I think that's not necessarily the reality, The league and Morel are going to be in a constant state of adjustments/readjustment. Yes, Morel is 24 and has 800+ PA's under his belt, which makes him more stable, but at the same time, there's real flaws in his game. So let's use last year for example. Christopher Morel really struggled against sweepers. We can see this in that he has his biggest in zone whiff% against this pitch, it was the most likely pitch to be called a strike against him in general, we can see this in that he has a very low OPS against this pitch, and he is very prone to chasing this pitch off the plate (heat map below). And yet, in 2024 Morel saw only 128 pitches classified as a "sweeper". That's one of the lowest pitches he saw last season. Conversely, Morel feasted on fastballs. He saw a ton of fastballs. So what happens if and when more pitchers start to exploit this? Is Christopher Morel going to adapt? Will he improve on the pitch? Will this be something that he can't get over? The sweeper is a pitch we're seeing implemented more and more in the MLB right now and is something RHP are being taught to combat RHH's. So why should we consider regression? Well, that's one reason right there: Christopher Morel was not good against this pitch and teams didn't really use that against him last year. Given a full offseason, and with teams full of people more intelligent than I am, I am sure scouting reports on Mr. Morel will be updated to "don't throw fastballs, maybe try the sweeper". I'm sure the Cubs will have worked with Christopher as well, so again, adjustment/readjustment. Point is...players with the profile of Morel, who struggle with consistent contact, are exploitable. Morel has some baseline to him, but enough volatility that I can't tell you what I expect out of him. There's regression potential and progression potential. I don't want to be negative here, it's just a post about why someone could see regression as potential...it's there. Progression isn't linear. I think it's fair to wonder just where this will go.

Entirely. If the Cubs think Cade Horton is among their 4 best SP's, it's best to use those innings at the end of the season when they may matter more (in playoff situations).

The cat is kind of out of the bag already, on the last front. The more teams you add to the playoffs, the more you create randomness. Arizona doesn't get a chance to win the World Series if there isn't further expansion to the playoffs. They can create artificial ways to decrease randomness a bit, like "ghost-wins" where a team starts up a series 1-0 like has been suggested, but even then, randomness will continue to prevail in many cases. The league has put profit above sport. And we can debate how much that should or shouldn't be the case if we want, but that's not really my goal here; mainly just to suggest that I don't think there's a solution here. The owners (and rulers) of the league won't be able to put the toothpaste of profit back in the tube and give up revenue streams (more playoff games) and because of that, this is the world we will live in.

The Dodgers have worked for years doing things like this. They're very deliberate on limiting starting pitchers to roughly 5 innings in the minors, and then transitioning starting pitchers into long relief roles. The Cubs, IMO, follow the Dodgers in this line of thinking. It's hard to tell what's specific, or what the limit is (as we don't know the number a team sets), so exact "proof" is impossible, only inference, but I do believe other teams are using this line of thinking.

horsefeathers gross. I hate these stupid patches.

I think Frankin is your typical command/control issue, where Franklin's trying to fix his control (ability to throw strikes vs balls) by sacrificing command (throwing good strikes vs bad strikes). It's really hard to tell fastball shape with HD level TV's, let alone the iPhone7 quality of video we get in the MiLB at times, but I have a strong suspicion Franklin is piping fastballs to "just throw strikes". The result? He's getting that pitch absolutely hammered.

I think he'll be up well before the trade deadline. Looking at Horton, he had 35 IP under his belt by June 15th last year. I assume he will be kept around that number in 2024...slow ramp up and keeping the innings off. If we are saying ~130 IP on the season (which feels like the number) that gives him 95 innings to play with from June 15th through the end of the year. Again, quick mathing, but that gives him about 17 starts (assuming he averages around 5.5 innings per start or so) the rest of the year. Justin Steele made 18 starts from June 17 - the end of the season, and I suspect the Cubs can tinker with hybrid 6-man rotations to give a break here or there. Overall, while I think June 1st is the first time we can start to maybe think about a Cade Horton call-up, I think June 15th and on begins a true "Cade Horton Watch" for me where any time after that, he could realistically get the call for good. Injuries, how the Cubs are playing and how Horton is doing (though I really think he's going to have little issues this season in the MiLB) will play a role here and I don't think it's as simple as "June 15th, mark your calendar", but I think mid-late-June is probably the time to start looking for it.

Perhaps. I still think it's a long shot either is even on the roster opening day., Smith is currently rehabbing an injury, Peralta was awful, and neither are on the 40-man. We'll see, but I don't find any reason to worry about either right now.

I should mention: Horton is now in camp. It was previously not mentioned he was invited to camp, so you'll have to forgive me there! New information and all.

Well, this is a very different sentiment. Maybe the Cubs break camp with Peralta as a 5th OF'er type, the 26th man, who barely plays. Sure. But I think that's far less than what you were suggesting Dom Smith is/was, which was comparing him to Hosmer, who was an everyday regular for the first month+. Which I just don't think is realistic, and is the pessimistic view. I would be stunned to see either Dom Smith or David Peralta as anything more than the guy on the back of the bench who gets a token few PA's here or there.

Franklin is the type who will almost always make these rankings: the stuff is just too good to not dream on. He's got the right body type, the right stuff, and when you watch him, there's everything there sometimes to be a dominant, top of the rotation guy. He's still young enough at 24 where you can't write him entirely off. especially when you can say "if he could just be healthy enough...". I've fallen into the Franklin trap plenty and I'll be the first down that well again if he strings together his first two starts of 2024, if we're being honest. You can make claims like he's got the best fastball/changeup combo in the system still. In the end, he's probably never putting it together. He'll walk too many guys, he won't control the stuff and he'll flame out again...but with that glimmer of hope...throwing him in that back-end-ten...just makes sense. Just to have it in your back pocket in case he figures it out all out magically.

You're being well too pessimistic and cynical. The Cubs did not sign Dom Smith and his 85 wRC+ over the last 1200 PA's on a max $3.5m dea (it's an MiLB deal at it's core with escalators in case he produces), to be the DH against RHP. Maybe he'll get MLB time if an injury happens, but as it stands, his path to being on the MLB roster as a 1b/DH only with that line is very bumpy and requires, likely, multiple injuries to players. Regardless of what they are currently saying about Morel being given a chance to play 3rd this spring training, it's most likely that he's going to be the DH most days with others playing 3b. I wouldn't even write his name in pencil at the top of the 3b depth chart as it stands. Perhaps a month of good play there makes that the case, but the Cubs have a lot of data over him at 3b internally, and this feels more like a "let's hope this works" instead of "we are going to brute force this to work". Point is, Smith is very unlikely to break camp with the Cubs.

When the Cubs selected Cade Horton seventh overall in 2022, many fans were concerned the Cubs had drafted a flash in the pan from the College World Series and someone who would eventually end up in the bullpen. Now, though, he sure looks like a member of the starting rotation. Could that come sooner, rather than later? Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK When the Cubs selected Cade Horton seventh overall in 2022, many fans were concerned the Cubs had drafted a flash in the pan from the College World Series and someone who would eventually end up in the bullpen. Now, though, he sure looks like a member of the starting rotation. Could that come sooner, rather than later? Cade Horton's 2023 went as well as anyone could have hoped. Not only did Horton show that he was healthy, he tore through the minors, starting in Myrtle Beach, ripping up South Bend, and finishing with the Tennessee Smokies as their de facto ace, starting two of their playoff games. Horton showed excellent control of his fastball, kept the devastating slider, and even began developing a changeup that flashes plus. Horton is on a path that few Cub pitching prospects have traveled. This is probably the best pitcher the Cubs have drafted since Mark Prior. Based on that, it would have been fair to expect the Cubs to invite Horton to major-league camp this year. They invited a younger and further away prospect (Owen Caissie) last season, and invited more recent first-round pick Matt Shaw this year. Horton wasn't on the invite list. But I'm not sure that's a bad thing. I had previously theorized that the Cubs may give Cade Horton a bit of a "late start" in 2023 to limit his innings, and this move begins to make that theory feel a bit more plausible. We assume that the Cubs will want to limit Horton to something in the range of 130 innings, as he finished with just a shade over 88 last season. The Cubs are generally a "protect their pitchers at all costs" organization, and I expect them to be even more careful with Horton. This shouldn't suggest an actual injury. It's just that the Cubs don't want Horton to waste innings in Tennessee in mid-April. They'd rather have him pitch with the Chicago Cubs in September. Regardless of his start time or being included in big-league camp, I think Horton will get a good run as a Cub in 2024. In fact, I think if he gets a late start, it shows just how confident the Cubs are that Horton will be one of their three or four best arms in the rotation come the end of the season. When do I expect Horton to make his debut? Anytime after Jun. 1 is a realistic target. In all honesty, he's ready right now. The questions for Horton were on his health and his third pitch (the changeup), and I think both were effectively answered in 2023. At this point, it's just maintaining and proving you're capable of beating Triple-A hitters consistently, and then it's showtime. The Cubs will eventually see someone in the rotation get hurt, and while I wouldn't be surprised to see a Drew Smyly or a Javier Assad get the first crack at a spot, Horton's upside and stuff are just in a different stratosphere than those two. Even if he comes up in mid-June, that would allow for over half a season of innings (70-80) at the MLB level, across maybe 15 starts. They would also come at a very important part of the season: when the rubber hits the road, and the team begins to make a push for the playoffs. Horton's stuff is precisely what the rotation is missing: high-velocity swing and miss. While the Cubs have some pitchers I expect will get strikeouts, not even Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga offer the overpowering fastball and the devastating wipeout slider that Horton can. What could we expect from Horton in 2024? ZiPS sees 80 innings, with an ERA of 4.30 for the former Sooner. On the surface, that feels pretty unimpressive, but we have to remember that all ZiPS can do is input the data it has, and almost all of that data comes from Low A and High A, so ZiPS is going to have a hard time translating that to the majors. Those numbers are low, and we can probably expect Horton to be a standard deviation better than that. While I see a lot of stylistic similarities with Spencer Strider in pitch mix and mechanics, it's unfair to expect Horton to immediately join the ranks of the elite in terms of strikeout rate. The answer lies somewhere in between, but I think Horton could immediately become the best right-handed pitcher in the Cubs rotation and even the Game 2 or 3 choice come the playoffs. While it will probably be tough sledding for him to win the Rookie of the Year award, it's possible he could impress people enough to get some votes if he comes up early in the summer. There are other outcomes, however. The Cubs may have a perfectly healthy rotation that has few gaps. If Jameson Taillon bounces back and Jordan Wicks hits the ground running, the Cubs may decide to keep the rotation intact. In this case, Horton's stuff would more than play in the bullpen down the stretch. Counsell could use Horton as a two-inning power arm with a fastball-slider combination, or deploy him as a righty-killer. While this may be less exciting than the former scenario, Horton could still be an impactful arm on a playoff-caliber team. Either way, I fully expect Horton to be a member of the Chicago Cubs in July. He's not on the 40-man today, but he's too good for Tennessee, Iowa, or anywhere other than MLB. Wrigley will be buzzing the day Horton finally makes his major-league debut. When do you expect to see Horton arrive in MLB? Whom should he displace from the rotation, if it comes to that? Jump in and discuss. View full article

Dom Smith sucks. He's not breaking camp with the team. His incentives kick up to a mere $3.5m. The Cubs know this and his contract reflects it. Smith is here as "break in case of emegency". Maybe they think there's a thing they can do with his swing in Iowa. But he won't be the left handed bat. He's just depth.

That move has literally been years in the making.