Jason Ross

I am genuinely shocked anyone could look at what the Cubs did between 2020 and 2021 and believe that was an earnest attempt at winning baseball games. You are free to your views, but I do not share them in the least. I think there are legitimate things we can look at during David Ross' tenure as manager that is questionable. The Cubs W-L record in 2021 is not one, not for me.

Eh. I mean, I think Ross probably had a bit to do with that. But he was also managing a team that didn't have Stroman (or at best had a husk of Stroman), a pretty run down and exhausted BP, Candelario was hurt... The Cubs were an imperfect team and many of those holes caught up to them at a pretty inopportune time. Ross can have a bit of that blame. Hoyer can have a bit of that blame. Some players didn't perform, as well, and they can also have some of that blame. I don't think the Cubs blamed Ross overly, or he'd have been out prior. This feels like less about David Ross and far more about Craig Counsell. But that's probably a good thing, I'd rather the team be looking to upgrade over "fine" than trying to shoulder blame to deflect.

I do not, under any circumstances, believe the Cubs had any intentions of winning baseball games in 2021. They traded their best SP for most of a HS-aged lineup, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, and replaced them with players like the husk of Arrieta and Joc Pederson on a reclamation deal. They didn't extend anyone and begun the sell off before July 1st. The Cubs got exactly what they wanted in 2021; they got to sell off multiple big named trade pieces (Rizzo/Bryat/Baez/Kimbrel) at the deadline. David Ross didn't really have much to work with. It was at best a team who could survive enough to replace those holes at the deadline. But it was a team that put forth very little to supplement the good ones and those holes sunk the battleship. I think that was a feature, not a bug.

I think this is a bit misleading and a bit misunderstanding of how the Cubs viewed Ross. First, I don't think anyone blames Ross for his losing record; 2021, and 2022 were teams that were created to lose. They weren't supposed to win. That's not on Ross, he was a caretaker. Secondly, I think the Cubs viewed him as an extension of themselves. I think what he did was largely, what the Cubs wanted him to do. I'm sure there were disagreements, but if they were truly upset at how he ran things, they'd have fired him 3 weeks ago. I also think the Cubs saw a better fit in Counsell and perhaps someone capable of bringing even better ideas and help to the table. That's not to say I think Ross is a rockstar, I think Ross is a fairly bog-standard manager, as most are. He's there, he did an alright job translating what the FO wanted, and whatever, he didn't make anyone's job actively worse most of the time. I think Counsell has the ability to be better then that, in a small group of managers who are likely capable of adding something to a team. Not a ton, but enough. I think the Cubs saw an opportunity to bring in Counsell (and I bet a few of his staff who are also really good at their jobs) to aid the Cubs in ways Ross couldn't.

Yes. The Cubs have released a statement relieving him of his duties and thanking him for his time.

I doubt it. I think this is a situation of opportunity. They didn't even ask the Brewers to interview him (instead waiting until he was officially a FA), and it doesn't seem like they had been conducting a widespread interview process. This feels very closed doors and very opportunistic. They had the chance for the man who is regarded as perhaps the best in the league at what he does, and they made the change. If not for Counsell I suspect Ross would have been kept no issues.

Official statement from the Cubs was that he was "relieved of his managerial duties". He was let go.

I think the Cubs would have a hard time justifying that. You can't break the literal record for money given to a manager then cry poor all offseason. As much as we're excited today, I think we're excited for the implications of Counsell more so than anything. If the Cubs can't come through on that, the love you see today would quicky turned to anything but.

Well, I will say this...he just got 5/$40m from the Cubs. That's the biggest contract ever given to a manager in the history of the MLB. The Cubs could have probably told him to wear a pretty pink skirt and start Justin Steele at SS and he'd probably have taken the contract. I agree, I think the Cubs are going for it, though.

Also, don't forget this: the Brewers are the definitive team when it comes to teaching catching framing. Like, the absolute best. Assume part of that staff is coming with.

Probably good news for Cubs young position players. Counsell never shied away from using young players, playing players like Turang, Weimer and Frelick pretty often and giving leash. Maybe that was because of sheer necessity, but I'd expect he'll have a similar temperament with young players.

Cubs aren't horsefeathers around this offseason. Let's go.

They Reteria-d Ross. Wow.

I'm expecting the money he gets to be kind of spread out. So like, he gets $14m in 2024, but with a $4.5m buyout for the mutual option being declined next year, akin to the Bellinger contract. So it'll be $18.5m or whatever in reality but it'll look like a 2 year mutual option thing.

Yeah, I'm expecting Hoskins takes a deal that kind of mirrors the Bellinger deal in a few ways. I expect he'll get a 1 year deal that is for around $18-22m in total, but on paper acts like a "two year, mutual option" deal. There's zero chance that mutual option goes into place (either he'll be hurt/bad and the team will never pick it up, or he'll be good and he'll never pick it up) and spread the cash out two years despite it being just a one year deal. He'll try to get that big contract next year (and should still probably get a good deal if he has a bounceback).

Pretty interesting. Starting to really think Soto/Morel has some legs here. While this article isn't specific in who/what/where for Christopher Morel, it's another sign that the Cubs are okay with using Morel there. Added with Levine and Cerami there's probably some smoke. Not enough for me to go predicting it, but Sharma is incredibly reliable, and I have to think this isn't a coincidence based on everything else.

Matt Mervis entered 2023 with a lot of hype; then, he made what seemed like a pretty unimpressive cameo on the Chicago Cubs last year. Where do we go from here for "Mash"? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review Matt Mervis showed up in South Bend in 2022 a changed man, it appeared, from the player we saw in Myrtle Beach in 2021. Moving quickly through South Bend, Tennessee, Iowa, and the Arizona Fall League, many believed in the offseason; Matt Mervis would get a shot at either first base or DH in April with the Cubs. This didn't happen, as the Cubs brought in Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini in the offseason while giving plenty of plate appearances to players like Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel at the DH position. Returning to Iowa, Matt Mervis blistered AAA once again. Posting a 136 wRC+, an 18 K%, and a .970 OPS, Matt Mervis picked up right where he left off in Iowa. Over 91 PAs, Mervis almost equaled his walks (18) and his strikeouts (19); all the while, both Mancini and Hosmer struggled and scuffled with the Cubs. As Mervis hit ropes in Iowa, Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini started noticeably slow as the Cubs struggled in late April. Voices in the media and fans began clamoring for the man nicknamed "Mash" to make an appearance and save the Cubs. On May 4th, Matt Mervis was called up to the Cubs. Sadly, for both the Cubs and Matt Mervis, his month with the Cubs did not go as planned. Getting 99 plate appearances spread over 27 games, Mervis had a disappointing 32.3 K% and an overall 46 wRC+. On the surface, these numbers were terrible and suggested that Mervis was overmatched at the MLB level. Looking a bit deeper into it, where Matt Mervis struggled can be summed up to two main areas: sliders and left-handed pitchers. Mervis whiffed on nearly 50% of the sliders he saw and had a -8 wRC+ against lefties. He also posted an uninspiring <9% launch angle. It would be easy to think it was all bad for Mervis looking at those numbers, but I think they partially bury the lede. There seemed to be a bit of bad luck for Mash, as his exit velocity, barrel, hard hit, and sweet spot percentages were all very impressive, most of which sat in the 90%+ zone. There seemed to be an aspect of bad luck for Mervis and while there can be some issues with expected batting average and expected slugging occasionally, but Mervis drastically underperformed both metrics. His xwOBA was .319. Is that good? Not really, but it's not the terrible 48 wRC+, either. For a rookie, in his first 99 PAs, a .319 wOBA wouldn't have been the worst outcome. The Cubs became disillusioned with Mervis and turned back to Trey Mancini as the primary first baseman in early June, sending Matt down to Iowa to work on a mechanical fix. Upon returning to AAA, Matt Mervis would post another 131 wRC+, albeit slightly more elevated 24.6 K%. 2024 Outlook and ETA Looking at our North Side Baseball Top 20 prospect list, I'm confident about the path forward for most players; some players have a little more fog... then there's Matt Mervis. Where we go from here on, Mervis is pretty cloudy, and it's hard to pinpoint the path forward. I'm usually complimentary of how the Cubs deal with prospects and young players. Still, they did themselves a disservice with Mervis this season, as they learned very little about his ability to play in the majors. We entered 2023 in a place where it'd be fair to be confident that Mervis could hit AAA pitching at a high level, with questions as to what he would do at the MLB level, and we're entering 2024 with the same questions. I have no issues with someone saying the Cubs couldn't keep just trotting out Mervis, but there didn't seem to be anyone hitting so well to block him from April - July, his only competition being Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, who had tons of red flags of their own. A longer leash, punctuated by his xdata, suggests he would have regressed to the mean somehow, considering where the other two first basemen were offensively. We'd be in a better spot to answer the question, "What is Matt Mervis?" without sacrificing much of anything had he gotten that leash. So, where do we go from here? Matt Mervis needs to be on an MLB roster in 2024. He'll be turning 26 early next season, and 661 PAs in AAA have proven that Mervis has solved AAA. Is that roster going to be the Chicago Cubs? I don't know. I think there's an MLB first baseman in Matt Mervis somewhere, but the Cubs should have high aspirations, and I'm not sure they're in a space to find out right now. There are permutations of this offseason where Matt Mervis takes a 1B/DH role with the club in April; I think there are others where he's traded. What I fear is that Matt Mervis could have a similar story to Max Muncy, another player who hit well in MiLB but took a little time in the MLB to figure himself out (not comparing the two or saying Mervis would be as good, just an observation and fear). But I also fear the inverse, that the Cubs aren't very high on Matt Mervis for something I can't see, and going with him in April without a backup plan could put a hole in the Cubs' boat. I'm glad I don't have to answer this question myself. View full article

Yeah, Hoskins would be an interesting stop-gap at 1b this offseason. I'd like the Cubs at some point to stop with the constant barrage of stop-gaps/reclamations and start to settle in a bit more at some positions, but I'm also fine with the Cubs playing stop-gap at 1b if it means they go out and bring in some more long-term options (or a Juan Soto with the hope that they extend him long term) via trade.

If you all need a fun baseball savant page, might I interest you in Brenton Doyle, winner of the gold glove (rightfully so) in the NL for the CF position. Doyle finished with a +19 DRS in CF, and a +16 in OAA. He also finished dead last in the league with a 43 wRC+ and a 35% K%. His Baseball Savant page is absolutely wild.

I can't remember the documentary/video and it was a while ago, but I had watched something about gold glove voting/award voting (along these lines) and basically there are people who barely watch these guys who vote and pick mainly on reputation. Now, that was a handful of years ago, so I'm not entirely sure that's the way it is so much any more. Probably helped Happ that last year he won the GG in winning this year. Thankfully, with the addition of things like baseball savant, and DRS, I think most of the voting (or at least the nomination process) is set up that the 3 (or so) best fielders get nominated, which should stop from egregious gold glove winners of past. But yeah, I too wonder how these things go down. We see some of the ridiculous voting when it comes to HoF every year.

Yeah, and realistically, he probably shouldn't have won this year. NL LF'ers were pretty bad as a whole, as only three finished with +DRS. Happ's DRS was tied with Reynolds for 2nd at a +2 behind Eddie Rosario's +3. Happ's OAA was significantly worse than Rosario's but made up for it with a much better arm. Splitting the difference, Rosario was probably the wee-better choice. The reality is, any of the AL runner-ups would have been a more deserving winner if they were in the NL. With that said, congrats to Happ, Swanson and Hoerner. All put in significant work this year, enjoy the night!

A strange and winding route through life and baseball brought BJ Murray to the Chicago Cubs. Murray's MLB journey may still have a few twists and turns left. Where does Murray fit into the Cubs' long-term plans? Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review B.J. Murray entered the 2023 season as a prospect who had already shown that perhaps MLB teams slept on the Bahamian in the 2021 draft. A 15th-round selection out of Florida Atlantic University, Murray had a great season in two stops, Myrtle Beach and South Bend, in 2022. Posting a wRC+ over 150 in the former and nearly 130 in the latter, Murray showed a strong nose for contact and approach. If there was some polish to put on Murray, it was the lack of game power shown, hitting eight home runs over the course of roughly 90 games. Murray was a college draftee, and you'd have hoped someone like him would have put up a few more home runs on paper. The 2022 season was good enough that BJ Murray was even given a roster spot on the Bahamian World Baseball Classic. 2023 B.J., however, took that personally once he reached Tennessee this year. Murray earned the AA promotion and started the season well, but he wasn't blowing anyone away with his first few months. Through June 30th. Murray had posted a solid, if unspectacular, wRC+ of 118 in Tennessee with a K-rate over 25%. In a reoccurring theme about Tennessee players, it's important to note that during this period, Tennessee and the Southern League were experimenting with a new pre-tacked baseball. The result was a league-wide increase of almost 3% in strikeout rates, and baseballs that behaved as if they were whiffle balls. Once the pre-tacked ball was shelved, however, Murray came to life. From July 1st through the rest of the season. Murray lowered his K% to 22.1% (or about 3%, the league average K% jump, mind you) and posted a .221 ISO with improved power, which was good for a 139 wRC+. Basically, after the baseball was switched, Murray turned into one of the better hitters in Tennessee and the Southern League in general. Much like any hitter, there were spurts up and down, but it was a nice second half for the young third baseman. Murray's season was good enough to represent the Chicago Cubs mid-season at the Future game alongside a pretty special prospect named Pete Crow-Armstrong. Overall, it's hard to find many complaints about how the season finished for Murray. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA It's a foregone conclusion that Murray will start in Iowa in 2024. He has done everything he needed to Tennessee. Murray, as well, will be 24 years old, so he'll be age-appropriate for Iowa as well. What interests me about Murray is how the Cubs handle him positionally. Looking at the Cubs as an organization, first base and third base are the two positions where the Cubs have open paths for early prospect contribution. Murray has spent most of his career at third base and it will be interesting to follow how the Cubs handle him defensively because Matt Shaw will also be around the same level as Murray, and many assume Shaw (the more highly-rated prospect by the industry) will have a future at that position as well. So where does Murray go? Is he an option at first base? Matt Mervis may get another shot at the MLB level at position, which would open up Murray to playing first at Iowa. Is Murray the preferred option internally at third? In that case, do the Cubs continue playing Shaw in the middle infield, two positions locked down at the parent club for the foreseeable future? Murray hasn't been known for his glove to date, so there are many things on the table. I can also see him used as trade bait this offseason if the Cubs decide to make some splashy moves and prefer Matt Shaw as the third baseman of the future over Murray; if you're a team making a trade with the Cubs, Murray could offer interesting value as a second trade piece who hit well last year in AA and probably isn't too far off. Murray could find himself on an MLB roster mid-season next year if things break right for him, either with the Cubs or elsewhere. Being 24 and starting in Iowa, especially without any current entrenched player at his historic position, Murray could provide a bat for the Cubs if he gets off to a hot start, and the Cubs must address the position meaningfully. He could also find himself on the path as a DH or first baseman A conservative ETA is a 2024 September call-up, but a more aggressive timeline could see him getting PAs in Chicago (or another organization) by June 15th. Whether he's traded to get MLB-ready players or adding value to the Cubs himself, this represents another big scouting win for the Cubs. View full article

As of today, the recent reports on Hendricks are that the Cubs won't explore extension until much later in the offseason. I'd expect him back on 1/$16m.