Jason Ross

I think most of this is fair. Not sure I think Wisdom is capable of getting near 110 wRC+ in full time (I think in very curated PA's he can get there but given more run, Wisdom tends to fall off, from what I can tell). Morel/Busch feel capable of getting somewhere between 110-120 wRC+ if things go well, though I can see situations where both struggle. I love some Owen Caissie but still think he's going to be developing come June. His last three levels (Low-A, High-A and Double-A) he's started similarly in all: struggling for the first ~45 days or so, then finding his footing, starting to really take off around July-ish. Excpect Triple-A will really work on hitting him up and in and think we will see a similar pattern. I think he's the best bat in the system up and down, and has the biggest upside, but even I'd be shocked to see him come up in June and tear it up; as much as I don't think Morel or Busch would be All-Stars in 2024, I think that's still a shade more likely.

I suspect we're going to look back on our lower levels and be happily surprised come the end of the season at some of the fun pop ups that come out of it. It's fair today to wonder where those prospects will come from, but there's a host of guys who have interest. We'll likely get our first extended (or even, for some, their first) looks this season at some recent draft picks like Paciolla, Mule, Wiggins, Carico, Sanders, Rosario who are very young but have some loud tools. As well, guys like Rujano, Arias, Rojas, should be a year further in their developments. The Cubs have also had some recent success finding college bats in rounds 12-20, so it wouldn't be surprising to see like, a Carter Trice, Brian Kalmer, or Jonathon Long to really break out at South Bend. The low levels lack the super-high draft picks right now that you're just jazzed at (thanks to guys like Shaw and Horton speed running those levels, and the recent trade of Ferris), but I think there's some real breakout candidates down there. I can't tell you which ones will or won't, but I really trust the Cubs developmental system right now and am confident we're going to find some guys to watch down there.

I'm not sure I agree with that. The Cubs have Busch, with Bellinger as a fall back once Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready. There's good reason why Busch has been ranked top-50 by a few industry rankings, and it'd be hard pressed to find better coverage than Bellinger. There's options as well internally like Matt Mervis, Garrett Cooper, Patrick Wisdom and even Dom Smith has a smear of appeal if the Cubs can find/change something. I'd say most teams don't have as promising as a 1/2 as Busch/Bellinger. Once you get to third in any depth chart, for any position, you start finding questionable options...mostly because if they weren't questionable, they wouldn't be third, ya know?

The Chicago Cubs have struggled to lock down first base ever since the departure of Anthony Rizzo. Have they finally solved the position long-term with the addition of Michael Busch? Or is Cody Bellinger going to spend much of the coming campaign at the cold corner? Image courtesy of © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK Even before bringing back Cody Bellinger on a deal lasting anywhere from one year to three, the Cubs made a bold move aimed at shoring up first base, acquiring Michael Busch in a four-player trade with the Dodgers. The Starter: Michael Busch 2023 Stats: 9.9% BB%, 33.3% K%, .167/.247/.292, 49 wRC+, -.5 fWAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS: 9.8 BB%, 25.6% K%, .251/.336/.453 115 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR Scouting Report: While he will likely see some time at other positions throughout the year, the Cubs have signaled that Busch will likely be the team’s first baseman for most of the season (at least to start). The former Dodger may see time at second and third here or there, but first seems like his home. Busch struggled at times in 2023 in his first run at the MLB level, but the industry remains fairly high on him, with consensus rankings in the top 100 and a top-50 ranking by both MLB.com and Baseball America. Busch has an impressive combination of bat-to-ball and power skills, which means even if he’s “only” a first baseman, he has enough tools in his shed to be an above-average bat at an offensive driven position. Approach-wise, he’s patient, almost to a fault, forcing pitchers to come into the zone. Traditionally, Busch does not have terrible platoon splits in the minor leagues, and really feasts on fastballs. The best development in his game from a somewhat lackluster 2022 to 2023 was Busch’s ability to make adjustments and get around on high-velocity fastballs. As the Cubs ranked in the bottom-10 last season against fastballs in general, a fastball-feasting Busch would seem to fit right in. I wrote more in depth about what we can expect to see from him in 2024 in another article, which goes into a lot of the improvements that Busch made, and just why I'm so excited about him. Other Options: Bringing back Bellinger has made the Cubs positively awash in good alternatives to Busch. While the slight lean right now must be toward Bellinger starting the season in center field, it's not hard to envision Pete Crow-Armstrong forcing the issue and Bellinger ending up spending time at first, with Busch shuttled to the DH spot. Meanwhile, a player like Patrick Wisdom goes from an iffy platoon option and first fallback plan to an enviable secondary fallback guy. The Cubs also have another young player in Matt Mervis on the 40-man roster who could step in if needed. While both Mervis and Busch struggled in their initial stints in the show, I have much more confidence in Busch. I also wrote, recently, about Mervis and his second-half-2023 struggles. Long story short: the swing decisions got worse with time, and that’s just not good. Could Christopher Morel provide coverage at first? Earlier in the offseason, the Cubs spoke about giving the powerful right-handed hitter some looks at first. Morel’s position is in flux, and the Cubs are clearly looking for a way to get his thump into the lineup when they can. While he’s more likely to see time at the designated hitter position, there’s a chance that the Cubs will give Busch some time at third, or that Morel will take to the first base position, and could see time here. At the moment, he seems to be in the driver's seat for the third-base gig, instead. The Big Question: Is Busch the answer at first base? The Cubs didn’t get Busch for free, and had to part with two pretty interesting prospects to get him in Jackson Feris (whom Northside Baseball ranked their ninth-best prospect in the fall) and Zyhir Hope, a relatively big-money 11th-round selection in the 2023 MLB Draft. This would both suggest that the Cubs really believe in Busch, but also remind us that the Cubs should hope they have read the situation well. The good news is that, with Bellinger in the fold, the Cubs have some cover internally if they feel as though they need to pivot. Moving Busch to the DH spot wouldn't be ideal, but platooning him there or at first would be palatable. The Cubs have tremendous depth at first base now, so regardless of how well Busch does, they should have options in 2024. Long-term, however, the Cubs really should be hoping that the former Dodger pans out. If he does, it will be hard to argue that the Cubs didn’t win their end of the trade, getting the first base position locked down for the better half of the next decade, at the very least. View full article

There were a few tweets this offseason suggesting Ballesteros was making progress behind the plate. Perhaps Counsell can bring some of the Brewer magic with him, too. He obviously wasn't the catching guru, but I can't imagine he wasn't in the room or deaf the entire time, either. It's optimistic to think Ballesteros catches in the MLB, but not so optimistic I'm counting it out yet.

They may, they may not. I don't really subscribe to the idea that simply because someone becomes a reliever they automatically get better at things like strikeouts and swings and misses. The reality is that the bullpen can begin to hide issues like consistency and command (shorter sample size, easier to pull the plug when it's not working) but K's are more dependent on what pitches you have, how you used it and the like. I can't say I know a lot about Thompson. Profile looks interesting enough that a reliever is on the table. But how he uses his fastball in the zone, where does he miss with the curveball...these things will determine far more if his K's should or shouldn't be expected to improve. I think the bullpen will help hide the walks, but beyond that...he's a pretty big mystery. Not complaining, mind, you, I think he's as good of a return as you could hope for...just disagreeing on the concept of K development being likely with a change or a move.

Appreciate it!

The Cubs and the White Sox have worked together and completed another trade, this time sending LHP Bailey Horn to the South Side in exchange for RHP Matt Thompson. Who is Matt Thompson and why did the Cubs make this kind of trade? Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports On Tuesday, the Cubs traded left-handed pitcher Bailey Horn to the Chicago White Sox for right-handed pitcher Matt Thompson. Horn, 26, was a fifth round pick of the White Sox back in 2020 out of Auburn. The Cubs acquired the southpaw reliever when they sent Ryan Tepera to the Sox in the summer of 2021. Protected by the Cubs in November 2023 with his addition to the 40-man roster, Horn now makes his way back to his original organization. Despite striking out a hitter per inning in Triple-A and some fairly dazzling stuff, Horn never found the consistency to throw enough strikes for a callup for the Cubs. The White Sox, in their rebuilding era, likely have more of a pathway to making parent club than the Cubs. Coming back the Cubs' way is right-handed pitcher Matt Thompson. Thompson was regarded highly in the 2019 draft, being picked 45th overall out of high school and commanding a signing bonus north of $2 million. Sadly for the righty, success at the minor-league level has not come easy. Much like the aforementioned Horn, Thompson did not find the strike zone enough for the White Sox to see a future for him in their system. There's enough in Thompson's profile to like; a decent fastball that can hit 95mph, and a plus curveball. The a switch to a relief role seems likely to be considered. The Cubs have a better developmental system for pitchers in place than the White Sox. So while it'd be pretty hard to predict future success for a prospect who's fallen on hard times, Thompson is only 23 years old and could still find success with some tweaks. He's an intriguing add for the Cubs, and a name it wouldn't be shocking to see pop up some day. The need for this type of a move was created when the Cubs re-signed Cody Bellinger to a three year, $80 million contract very early on Sunday morning. With the 40-man roster full, the Cubs needed to clear a space so that the Bellinger contract could become official. Names such as Keegan Thompson and Patrick Wisdom were thought to be on the chopping block, but it was Bailey Horn who got his name called in the end. Matthew Thompson, on the other hand, does not take up a 40-man roster spot, giving the Cubs an interesting prospect with a pedigree and the ability to add Cody Bellinger to the official 40 man roster. View full article

Also makes sense. Bailey Horn was similar to Thompson in that he was an option in a sea of many options.

Thompson makes a lot of sense as someone to remove from the 40-man. The Cubs need a spot, and Thompson has yet to really settle in as a consistent MLB-definite player at the age of 29. He's had some bursts of interesting data, but it's never consistent. The Cubs, as well, have a host of young arm options such as Palencia and Little who may be left on the outside looking in to the start the season (and would, IMO be ahead of Thompson for looks), as well as Brown and Horton who could realistically jump him come June or July. There are even intriguing arms like Ethan Roberts who are coming back from TJS who could present as an interesting mid-season arm if he can find his form. Overall, the Cubs have a lot of options and Thompson is one of many. It's not hard to him as potentially superfluous.

Many of them are pre-arb or signed contracts a few years ago. Inflation is real, and players who are pre-arb or even at arb, don't make $30m. Based on inflation and contract trends, players who are under 30 years old and are consistent 4 win players will likely be looking at AAV's nearing the $30m range moving forward. Maybe a shade lower, but generally, in that range.

The Cubs certainly love themselves some options. This feels like a nice gamble for a world in which they think Morel handles 3b, as they'd probably be better off with Cooper against RHP over Wisdom in that case. Being that it's NRI, there's little risk in it. And if Morel can't handle 3b, then it's likely they'll roll with Wisdom.

I mean, not loving Mervis likely exactly means that. Do you expect the Cubs to prioritize a player they don't love on the 26 man roster? Because I certainly don't. Thats why they didn't play him last year and they just signed *another* NRI 1b. We can try to justify why they called up Young, but you have no idea. That's based, 100% on what you think. What we know is the Cubs thought Jared Young was a better bet in September and then DFA'd him. That doesn't bode well. This isn't about how you and I feel about Mervis. With that said, his Triple A data last year upon his return is quite worrisome from a contact perspective and that's a big indicator of future success, so I'd ere on the side of "actually he might be a bad option". The Cubs probably don't need a second 1b option who is going to platoon against LHP. We will see what happens but I think a lot of why people feel Mervis is a good option is because of how quickly he jumped up. Deeper dives into his process and how the Cubs have treated him suggest there's some issue there. I have had to reevaluate how I feel about him and have come more and more to the conclusion that there's heavy reason to be skeptical of his ability to be an MLB regular.

The Cubs have made it blatantly obvious they don't love Matt Mervis. They didn't include him on the OD roster last year, they gave him a quick shout in the MLB and then buried him back in the MiLB behind players they would later DFA, such as Jared Young, when space opened up. The Cubs already have questionable defensive corners in Patrick Wisdom, and how likely/unlikely the Cubs are to play questionable defensive players like Morel and Busch outside of 1b/DH is yet to be seen at the MLB level. The less playing time those two are going to get away from those position the less chance the Cubs carry around a (likely) 1b/DH (mostly DH) only platoon bat. Especially one they don't appear to like that much. There's a very narrow path than likely requires one, perhaps two, injuries to occur to see Matt Mervis make the Cubs opening day roster. I truly don't think MLB teams make many decisions based on ST, and with Mervis, they've either already decided or haven't on his future roll with the Cubs before hand. I'd say the chances are much higher he's traded in the next few days to open up a 40-man slot for Bellinger than it is for him to make the Cubs OD.

Solid contract. Will essentially be a one year deal barring injury or tanking. Good job on waiting that one out. Bad news is that we get to have this same offseason next one. With Hendricks, Bellinger, Smyly, Gomes, Bote, and some dead money coming off, the Cubs will once again have a lot of money under the LT, tons of prospects and will be labeled as the team to watch.

Really appreciate it! Me and @Josh Illes had a real fun time doing this.

Really appreciate it! It was a lot of fun to do with Josh. Look forward to doing it again.

Foolish Baseball (awesome channel if you don't subscribe, highly recommended) recently did a video on count and it's importance on outcome. While the video is awesome, there's a great section on the second half which breaks the plate down to "heart" and "shadow". Command matters; pitchers who hit the shadow do far better than pitchers who throw in the heart. I ran some data, and looking at the data, while hitters still hit well on pitches in the mid-mid part of the plate regardless of velocity (hitters are still hitting to the tune of a .327 wOBA on pitches 97-100 mph in the middle), the margin for error clearly increases with velocity as well. In zone whiff numbers increase at every interval of 3+mph from 91-94 all the way to 100mph+, and wOBA decreases in a similar fashion. The wOBA, for example, on 91-94mph mid-mid was .408. So while clearly command is quite important and avoiding middle-middle is incredibly important, velocity appears to give pitchers quite a bit of latitude,. Essentially, if you're not going to throw hard, you better damn well have excellent command.

We're on the final part of our roundtable of top Cubs prospect rankings, and we've already had a few surprises. Will there be a surprise at the number one spot? Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports After a solid roundtable, we're finally on the most exciting part: our final five rankings. With a few surprises and differences along the way, do @Josh Illes or I have any final surprises for you? Ensure you're caught up by reading our first three parts before you look at part four, so you're not missing anything! Cubs Prospects 16-20 Cubs Prospects 11-15 Cubs Prospects 6-10 Jason's 5th Ranked Prospect: Owen Caissie, RF/1B/DH You have no idea how much it pains me to put Owen Caissie fifth and not higher, but that reflects the system and not how I feel about the Canadian. Caissie has many of the makings of an elite power prospect: his exit velocities are already good enough to rank at the top of MLB (not just minor league) lists. He’s got the body and the swing, as well, to go with the exit velocities to generate 30, 35, or even 40+ home run power down the road. It’s easy to point to Caissie’s strikeout rate when discussing flaws in his game. Still, I think these are generally overblown, as he had to deal with being one of the youngest players in the entire system and the pre-tacked baseball the Southern League introduced in the first half of the 2024 season. A deeper dive does suggest Caissie is likely a platoon player down the road. Still, it also shows that against RHP and with a regular baseball, Caissie doesn’t have strikeout issues everywhere, finishing the second half with an impressive 24 K% against right-handed pitchers. This isn't a bad outcome, with the league increasingly leaning into platoons. Where Caissie eventually settles is a good question: he’s made real improvements in the right field. However, combining other prospects and his body may eventually cause him to shift to a first base or a designated hitter role. But here’s the thing…I’m not sure I care. This is what elite power prospects look like, and the Cubs haven’t had a pure masher like this come through the system in nearly a decade. I’m excited to see the Big Red Machine debut, which could come as soon as August of 2024, though I think 2025 is a more conservative and likely timeline. Josh's 5th Ranked Prospect: Michael Busch, INF There are questions about Michael Busch. Can he play third? Can he play second? Can he play first? Will he prefer an Italian Beef over a French Dip? And so on. But one thing about Michael Busch that is not in question is that he can hit. He can hit. He can hit for both average and power. The 26-year-old Busch was acquired by the Cubs last month and is expected to open the 2024 season in Chicago as either the Opening Day first baseman or DH. Up until now, he has only had a cup of coffee in the Majors with the Dodgers, having been chiefly blocked at the major league level by Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and all the other all-stars the Dodgers have on their roster. With the Cubs, he will finally get to prove he belongs. Drafted in 2019 out of North Carolina, he played almost exclusively at first for the Tar Heels, but to be fair to Busch, he was a shortstop in high school and was expected to play shortstop at UNC eventually. The main reason that didn’t happen is because, as a freshman, he could hit the ball so well that the coaching staff had to find a place for him to play, and that place at that time was first. So play there, he did. And he hit. And they kept him there, and he thrived. And to be fair, he doesn’t profile as a shortstop, so there is something to be said for the move to first base being the correct one. However, he still displays much of that athleticism that made him a top-ranked high school shortstop in Minnesota, and even as late as last season, there were a lot of Dodgers prospect rankers who believed he could, and maybe should, be given a chance at the hot corner. I’m not sure if he will get that chance now that he’s moved to the Cubs, but I do know that the Cubs have many questions regarding who will fill that position this season, so maybe Busch will end up providing an answer. Jason's 4th Ranked Prospect: Michael Busch, 1B/2B/3B I like Michael Busch, and multiple industry rankings do, too (as Busch ranked in the top 50 for both MLB.com Pipeline and Baseball America). He will be an excellent major-league hitter after getting more and more into the weeds. While he struggled in his initial callup, much like Matt Mervis, who I ranked much lower, Busch’s processes are much better than Mervis's, leading me to be much more confident. With contact rates above 80% and a very discerning eye, the former Dodger does things right at the plate. Even though he struggled at times in 2022 against velocity, by 2023, the lefty seemingly got much better against these pitches at the Triple-A level. We know contact rate correlates highly to MLB success (and correlates highly from Triple A to MLB), which again fills me with confidence about his ability to hit at the highest level. I think it's unlikely that Busch ever establishes himself as a long-term third baseman due to his defensive limitations, but the Cubs worked wonders with Nick Madrigal. So, I can’t entirely discount that. Even if he’s just a first baseman, there’s a ton to like and think he’s capable of being a 120+ wRC+ hitter. It was a steep price to pay, Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope, to acquire the first baseman, but I think it’ll work out. Josh's 4th Ranked Prospect: Kevin Alcantara, OF I can’t decide if my favorite thing about Alcantara is his nickname (The Jaguar) or if it’s the first player I ever saw him compared to (Darryl Strawberry). Eventually, I assume, my favorite thing about him will be the sight of him crushing opposite-field home runs at Wrigley Field, but for now, I’ll call it a tie. The Cubs have pretty clear top 3 prospects, so this spot at number four is mostly a ceiling play for me, and I like Alcantara’s ceiling. He is a plus field, plus arm, plus hit tool, plus power, and speed. In other words, he has all five tools. That’s the ceiling, and from there, the questions are about the likelihood that he can become a five-tool player at the MLB level. He still has some work to do to get there. Last season saw him hold his own with moments of dominance at High A as a 20/21-year-old before getting a late-season call-up to Double-A Tennessee. This year, he will likely be with the Smokies all season, and it will be interesting to see what struggles, if any, he has. He will probably strike out a lot. He has at every level so far. He sits dead red at the plate and likes to lay off anything off-speed, so if the Southern League pitchers decide to beat him with breaking balls, he will need to adjust. If he makes that adjustment, he will be fine; if he doesn’t make it, he won’t be ranked this high at this time next year. It’s as simple as that. Jason's 3rd Ranked Prospect: Matt Shaw, INF Matt Shaw was different from the guy I was most excited about heading into the 2023 draft, but after some deep dives, I got it. I preferred the Arizona Diamondbacks selection of Tommy Troy in the category of “undersized infield prospect with power” at the time of the draft, but I’m willing to admit…I think I got these guys flip-flopped and probably would instead take Shaw. Shaw came out on fire last year, blasting through South Bend and landing with the Smokies for their playoff run. Shaw will likely see Iowa sooner rather than later as a prospect who will continue to move fast. His biggest question will be his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, but Shaw boasts plus-contact and plus-power to go with the aggressive approach. Shaw has multiple “swings” with a minor leg kick with two strikes, which should help keep the K’s down even if the aggressive approach is never fully remedied. Many have suggested that his path to MLB lies at second base (even Shaw compared himself to Dustin Pedroia in a post-draft interview). Still, the former Terrapin has spent the offseason primarily working at third base. Shaw doesn’t have the best arm, but the Cubs have an organizational need, as of writing this article, for the position in the long term. It may be an internal battle between BJ Murray and Shaw to claim the long-term position. Industry and pedigree give Shaw the inside edge here (if he can answer the questions about arm strength), but there’s no guarantee he’s the winner or can even overtake Murray (who should start a level higher in 2024) on the way to Wrigley. That said, Shaw already looks like a “win” of a draft pick early. Josh's 3rd Ranked Prospect: Matt Shaw, INF Some pretty clear themes emerge when you dive deep into the scouting reports on Shaw, where words like “competitive,” “aggressive,” “determined,” and “underdog” litter the pages. The former collegiate shortstop is now a promising third base prospect in the minor leagues for the Cubs after they took him in the first round of last year’s draft. At 5’11” and 185 pounds, Shaw isn’t technically undersized to play the hot corner, but he may need every single one of those attributes above to play there at an exceptional level. He had an exceptional career at Maryland, breaking the school record for home runs as a sophomore in 2022, hitting 22. As a junior, he broke his record this past season, mashing 24 long balls. He played well during the college season and even better in the Cape Cod League. He hit to the tune of a slash line of .360/.432/.574, along with ten doubles, two triples, five home runs, and 21 stolen bases in just 36 games with the Bourne Braves in the summer of 2022. That performance led to him being named the Cape Cod Summer Player of the Year and vaulted him up draft boards heading into 2023. Scouts are somewhat mixed on his ultimate position defensively. The questions surrounding his arm at shortstop had more to do with the mechanics of his arm slot than with actual arm strength, so the move to third makes sense, as a slightly slower transfer coupled with a strong arm will still play at third. That said, I’m not sure any infield position has been completely ruled out, and it will be interesting to see what Craig Counsell does with him in the spring, as the club has announced that Shaw received a non-roster invite to Spring Training. Jason's 2nd Ranked Prospect: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF Before you think it: this isn’t shiny-new-toy-syndrome or prospect fatigue…I was considering this as far back as July of 2023. That’s not an indictment of PCA, but just how impressed I am with Cade Horton. But this isn’t about Cade; this is about Pete, and I think we need to remember just how good of a prospect Crow-Armstrong is. He’s a legitimate 80-grade glove, a 75 or 80-grade runner, and has 20 home run power. I remain concerned with his plate approach, as I find him to be hyper-aggressive and in the wrong way. The good news is that he’s shown the ability to grow and learn: the Cubs entirely revamped his swing, and he took to it like a fish in water, so his ability to learn from a rough first call up with the Cubs is very possible. What’s more concerning than the short stint in the bigs was his 67% contact rate in his first go in Triple-A. I hope that PCA can take some lumps and learn how to pick out better pitches to swing at. He's a freak of an athlete. Even if he can’t entirely revamp the plate approach, there’s an accessible two-win floor with his speed, defense, and power. It might not always be pretty, but he’d be a helpful player at a premium position. However, if he can work on the approach, there’s still a significant upside. If that takes, there’s a better version of someone like Javier Baez here, and the lefty would be a legitimate threat to break five wins in a few seasons. Whether or not he gets there, PCA will likely find his way to Chicago early in the 2024 season. While the Cubs still may end up adding Cody Bellinger into the mix, there remains an obvious path for him to see tons of plate appearances in Chicago. Josh's 2nd Ranked Prospect: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF The prospect ranks love PCA. Fangraphs has him ranked 14th overall. Keith Law has him ranked 18th at The Athletic. Baseball Prospectus has him ranked 20th. MLB Pipeline has him 16th. The consensus ranking among all prospects in baseball has PCA somewhere around 15th overall. That seems right, although I may have him closer to the top 10 if I did an overall ranking. Every one of those sites also has him ranked as the top prospect in the Cubs system, which I'm afraid I have to disagree with. I have him at number two, which has nothing to do with PCA. I like someone else even more. When PCA made his MLB debut in September last year, it culminated everything we have seen him do in the Cubs organization since they traded Javy Baez and Trevor Williams for him at the trade deadline 2021. We have seen him play excellent defense in center field. We have seen him steal bases. We have seen his rapid left-handed bat spray balls all over the field. The fact that he was mainly unable to replicate any of these things in Chicago over the last month of the season is irrelevant to me. I put almost all of that on David Ross. Ross showed time and time again that his flaw as a manager was helping young players adjust to the big leagues, but what he did in September with PCA, Luke Little, and Alexander Canario was next-level bad. I haven’t adjusted PCA’s potential ceiling based on that limited sample size. If anything, I think he can take that experience and learn something from it. I think he should be given the starting center fielder job on day one of the 2024 season, and he won’t give it back for a long, long time. Jason's 1st Ranked Prospect: Cade Horton, SP I just really like Cade Horton, guilty as charged. I’ve liked him for a while, and I’m finally willing to say he’s the best prospect in the Cubs' system. We talk a lot about the floor from Pete Crow-Armstrong, but I think we should probably mention the floor of Cade Horton, too. Barring a significant arm injury, Horton’s fastball/slider combination would lead you to believe his worst-case outcome is a leverage reliever, and while this isn’t as sexy as “ace starting pitcher,” that isn’t far off from “speed and defense center fielder,” which is the floor we’ve given PCA. I’m willing to rank Horton above Crow-Armstrong because I feel more confident about the former reaching his 90/95% outcome now than the latter. Horton hasn’t had a chance to throw at Triple A, but his biggest hurdles were developing the changeup and his health, and I think he’s further along those changes than Crow-Armstrong is in developing and maturing his plate approach. If it feels pedantic or shaving hairs…it is…but that’s what you have to do with rankings. Indeed, they're more like a 1a and 1b ranking than anything, but I’m giving the nod to Horton for this exercise. Horton has an actual ace upside, and I love watching him work. There’s a bit of an attitude he carries himself with that you don’t see often; it can lead to some flaws where he tries to overpower hitters with his fastball (a bit of polish I’d like to see him work on), but it also makes him…just fun. With the burgeoning changeup, Horton has almost everything you could ask from a starting pitching prospect. I’m excited about many things in 2024, but Cade Horton’s first start might be the thing I’m most excited about. Josh's 1st Ranked Prospect: Cade Horton, SP When I look at Cade Horton, I see an ace. He’s the best Cubs pitching prospect since Mark Prior. Many folks have said both of those things; I'm not the first, but whenever I hear that, my mind immediately goes to the fact that if that is true, then Horton is the best prospect in the system. Granted, PCA is very, very good. His ceiling is a perennial All-Star center fielder, but Horton has the potential to be more than that, and he has quickly shown that his ceiling is very much within reach. When the Cubs drafted him with the 7th overall pick in the 2022 draft, it was seen as a bit of a reach. He had missed all of his freshman season at Oklahoma with Tommy John surgery and had only pitched a little in 2022. But that minor pitching he did was on a vast stage, namely the College World Series, where he struck out 13 without walking anyone in 7 ⅓ innings of the title game. It has quickly become apparent that his success in that game was no fluke as he has flown through the Cubs system in just one year, reaching Double A by the end of last season without so much a stumble. His stuff is electric. He has a plus fastball with good movement that sits around 95 mph but can touch 98. His slider is downright nasty at around 86 mph with a hard break, a pitch that he is unafraid to throw in or out of the zone. He also throws an average curve and changeup, either of which should be capable of being developed into a quality third pitch in his arsenal. In my mind, Horton is precisely what this Cubs pitching staff needs to compete right away, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were sitting at the top of the rotation as early as the end of this season, leading them in the playoffs. Are you surprised that we both have Horton as our number 1 prospect? Do you think we're seeing prospect fatigue? Do you agree or disagree with us? Please drop us a comment below to let us know how we did! View full article

As a personal Cade Horton-stan, I'm just excited we have two prospects in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton who we can have a legitimate debate about being 1.1 in our system. If you're team PCA, or team Cade, I don't think it really matters so much as the idea that there's the ability to be split in which camp you sit. Both players will make MLB debuts in 2024, both are industry top-40, if not higher guys. Both have legitimate 4 fWAR upside with solid floors. This is a good time for the system.

Cade HortonPete Crow-ArmstrongMatt ShawMichael BuschOwen CaissieKevin AlcantaraMoises BallesterosJordan WicksJefferson RojasBen BrownJames TriantosLuke LittleBJ Murray JrAlexander CanarioJaxon WigginsMatt MervisMichael AriasDrew GrayLuis Vazquez

This feels like an ad patch announcement. It's going to make the natives very restless, based on the comments, when it has nothing to do with Bellinger.