Jason Ross

With the season just a few weeks away from ending, which Cub prospects can still prove something to the team over that time? Overall, the Cubs have had a nice year from a hitting prospect point of view. Pete Crow-Armstrong is finding his footing as a solid MLB player (if not more with the progress in his offensive game), and down on the farm, most of the Cubs best-and-brightest have been shades of "good" to "great" on the season on the whole. Even newly drafted players like Cam Smith have shown out. However, despite that, the last few weeks can be difference makers for a few prospects in Iowa regarding how their 2025 starts. Having something to prove isn't always bad or good; these prospects may need to show continued development, ingratiate themselves at a new level, or show a spark down the stretch. These three weeks don't replace the entire year but would allow these prospects to end the year on a high note while forming a foundation for their 2025 years. Owen Caissie, OF (Triple-A) As of writing this article, Owen Caissie remains a member of the Iowa Cubs, but there's belief that he could be called up before action on Friday. Regardless, the outfielder has an important few weeks leading up to the end of the season. Caissie, since the MiLB All-Star break, has begun to pull the ball more (over 43% of the time), has hit the ball in the air more (an increase of over 10% with a 5% increase in launch angle), and these have seemingly resulted in a large increase in his isolated power. There has been a loss of contact rate over that time, though, so things aren't perfect, but we're starting to see the power project meet the results. Regarding who Caissie is as a prospect, it's starting to feel like we're rounding third and headed home regarding who the outfielder is as a total package. The left-handed slugger with a strong few weeks (either at Iowa or Chicago) gives the Cubs even more to think about than he's already done in 2024. While I think it's fair to assume that Caissie will struggle upon an initial call-up to Chicago (as we have seen many of the best prospects across baseball do), a solid first impression and good data would give the team positive vibes heading into the next season. I highly doubt any of these results will result in the Cubs feeling so confident that he's handed a DH or right field spot on Opening Day without the Cubs looking to address either position (if Bellinger opts out) outside the organization. Still, with a good last few weeks, it wouldn't be shocking to see Caissie as the "next man up" in the vein of Ben Brown or Pete Crow-Armstrong if an injury would occur early in the season to an outfielder or Michael Busch. Owen Caissie is starting to round himself out as a power hitter, and a few more weeks of data could go a long way into helping him see Chicago sooner rather than later on a permanent basis. Matt Shaw, 2B/3B (Triple-A) Matt Shaw is starting to settle into Iowa after initial struggles. He's posted a .403 wOBA over his last 30 days at his new home, with a solid 75% contact rate, a near 15% barrel rate, and an in-zone whiff rate of only 16%. He's posting a .236 ISO over that span and a 10% walk rate, culminating in a wRC+ over 140 in his last 72 plate appearances. Despite starting cold, Shaw has turned it on, and it looks like he could be getting close to being MLB-ready. So what could a few more weeks do for Shaw? The Cubs are currently in an interesting spot with Shaw (not necessarily a bad one). After trading for Isaac Paredes and solving their third base situation for what should be (at least) the next three seasons, Shaw is almost assuredly ticketed for second base at the next level, a position that is (in theory) settled for the next two seasons with incumbent Nico Hoerner signed through the 2026 season. It's possible (though not probable) that the Cubs would be willing to move Hoerner and give Shaw the position outright if they feel the return (who the team has been rumored to have entertained offers for around the deadline) is worthwhile. Hoerner, who is cost-controlled and a solid player, would appeal to many teams, even if he's never going to be a great hitter. A team that is second-base needy could be convinced to part with something reasonably interesting in return for the gold glover, Ultimately, I think it's pretty unlikely that the Cubs would not go that route. The Cubs have put a premium on defense, and Nico Hoerner should continue to be a 3- or 4-win player. Even if the Cubs are pretty unlikely to be that aggressive with Matt Shaw, three more weeks of strong numbers would likely put Shaw on a similar path as Caissie - one that would allow Shaw to be the "next man up" in the case of an injury to any of Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, or Paredes. The more Shaw can do at Triple-A to force the issue, the better it will be for everyone involved. Ed Howard, SS (Triple-A) Like the aforementioned Shaw and Caissie, Ed Howard cannot prove he's MLB-ready by the end of the year. There has been a bit of a misconception as to why he's currently in Triple-A, though (it's not that he's skipping Double-A), it's that the Cubs are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle a second time with the shortstop. A few years ago, Luis Vazquez was a similarly aged prospect who was seen as a glove-only player struggling to find his footing in High-A. Promoted to Iowa for a few weeks at the end of the 2021 season, Vazquez seemed to "click" offensively the next year. If you ask Vazquez, and others have...he'd tell you this short time gave him a foundation and a platform to succeed later as it showed him the flaws in his offensive game. Vazquez would then turn his ship around into a prospect who's made his MLB debut and could see himself as a backup infielder on an MLB roster as soon as next year. I suspect Howard is in Iowa to do the same: learn for a few weeks, then return to South Bend or Tennessee to start fresh next year. Ed Howard, now 22, had some short runs of success this year but has fallen back on hard times since his promotion. The Cubs have to try something there. I don't think he will stick at Iowa next year, regardless of how good a few weeks go. But I think he has something to prove to himself and the organization, and a successful run (or at least one heavy on the "learning) could be very important for him and his future. Are the Cubs at the point of releasing him this offseason? Probably not (though he wouldn't be the first 2020 prep first-rounder to find his route out of professional baseball if it were to happen), as I don't think they'd be crazy enough to think that his only saving grace would be a successful three-week stint two levels above where he was struggling. But I also think the team is at a point where they need to get him going if he's going to have a real future, and they can't afford to let a 22-year-old continue to learn in South Bend without a kick in the pants in some way. A good few weeks of learning could show the Cubs to have a little more faith in the former top pick and give Howard the confidence or the knowledge to replicate Luis Vazquez's path to being prospect-relevant. View full article

Pretty fringe, yes. He throws a good amount of strikes and I think he's beating hitters with that more so than other things at the level he's at. I'm hoping an offseason and a pitch lab session can get him to find a pitch he can add to generate something to put him truly on the prospect map. He's been a pretty big work in progress since draft day with his body so there's some precedent there for being someone who's malleable. Which gives me some hope.

It depends on how Bob is defining "front office". While they're "separate" I don't think they're separate, if that makes sense. Business and baseball overlap in many ways. The Cubs, for example, are in an uncertain RSN future currently with Marquee (business). But we also know that in 2020 Covid hurt business and the Cubs slashed payroll (baseball). There being friction between the two would be real. If Bob is considering baseball ops and business ops "front office" in general, it could be the friction. It also might not be. But in the past, Crane hasn't been against causing some friction, so I think it's worth at least allowing into the realm of realistic possibilities in terms of where the "friction" could be. I really don't know where the friction is myself. Hell, it could be super overblow.

I wonder if the "internal friction" is Jed and Crane Kenney. Crane seems like someone who you could have friction with...maybe moreso than ownership.

Yeah, I don't think Bob's wrong here. Just mostly...the general caveat people give when anything Nightengale is brought up.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/09/08/mlb-standings-trade-deadline-michael-kopech/75128155007/ Figured there's two things important in this blurb; 1. That there is "internal" friction. Hard to tell what that internal friction is...is it Hawkins and Hoyer? Is it ownership and the FO? 2. That Hoyer will return in 2025. I know many would like that to be a different case, but does seem as though this is the confirmation he'll return. Obviously the caveat here is "Bob Nightingale wrote it" and there's a bit of hesitancy to always buy his information. With that said, this feels significant regardless.

That is about the luckiest inning I've ever seen.

Yes. Exactly this. He's had under 30 good PA's with the Cubs. It's been super fun! And I hope he keeps it up. But like...it's a good 30 PA's. The Cubs should make sure they upgrade over him.

He's a free agent at years end. I suspect it's his last year with the Cubs. Another team will probably sign him to some sort of a prove-it MilB camp invite deal in hopes that he "finds it" but yeah, it's looking like the end of the line.

James Triantos hasn't played third base for over a full year because he was really bad at it.

I like Shaw. I like Triantos. This is a horrible idea. The solution to "Parades is in a slump" is almost assuredly not letting Triantos (88 wRC+ in Triple-A) or Matt Shaw (currently hurt), both of whom probably have shown they aren't 3b (Triantos has logged 7 games there since 2022 and Shaw has since moved back to 2b) there at the MLB level. It's more probable that the guy who's had a 124 wRC+ over his last (nearly) 1500 PA's gets it together than either of those rookies do in September in their first go.

I think Caissie is currently working on jumping the power finally. Early in the season, the contact wasn't really an issue. And it really hasn't been in the past. The K's have been, but a lot of that has been hyper-passivity. His contact % through May was almost 72%. But his ISO was .132. We've seen a pretty stark shift over the months. And since the ASB, his c ontact rate has dipped, but his swing% has jumped (5%) and his ISO has skyrocketed to almost .300. His pull rate has increased significantly as well. Over the last two months his FB% has jumped from the low 20's in April/May to well over 35 since July 20th. His LA has jumped 4%, from 12 to over 15%. I think the hope is that as he works through what is clearly a bit of an approach/swing change designed to lift the ball more and pull more. Hopefully we're starting to see "end game" Caissie, who puts together acceptable enough contact rates of around 70% with elite power numbers that his body should be capable of doing, while pulling the baseball more and more.

With no data on LA yet, his swing looks less flat to the eye test than it had gotten at FSU. He had basically fallen into a super flat bat path. Getting that swing tweaked is a big step into getting into the Cam Smith you'd hope he'd become. So that's good to see.

Oh, I don't really agree with what I was saying - more so where I think he's going to rank on industry-wide areas. I think he'll find himself as a top-12 or so prospect in the Cubs system but that many people will be bearish with him overall. Development is anything but linear. Players struggle and grow at different rates and different rates at different levels. But I suspect the industry will remain "lower" on him than more Cub-centric blogs and rankings for the reasons I explained. I like Hernandez I just think writers will be cautious but that it might not mean much.

I think Herz is getting really, really lucky. He's throwing a lot of pitches belt high. And the most frequent zone of strikes is "middle-middle". Regardless of velo, MLB hitters hit mid-mid a ton. His mid-mid wOBA is under .300 but his xwOBA is in the ,330. League mid-mid is a wOBA over .400! 56% of his mid-mid pitches are fastballs. League mid-mid is 38%. Now, Maybe DJ Herz is capable of throwing his fastball mid-mid more than others by a lot and get away with it, but there's not much in his profile to suggest it. Savant has his fastball run value in the 63rd percentile - above average but not something you'd assume to see a .100+ point better-than-league-averageon-mid-mid pitches. Hitters in general have a ,338 wOBA against his fastball, league average on fastballs is .336 - there should be no reason he's so much better when tossing the pitch right down the shoot. The lowest swing% he has in in 0-0 counts and he's throwing more fastballs in that count than any other count that isn't 3-0 and 2-0. He's also below average on mid-mid swings. So what you have is a guy who's throwing a lot of mid-mid fastballs early in the count and hitters who are letting them go. He's getting ahead of hitters because of that. League wide numbers jump significantly if you get ahead 0-1 or your numbers dip significantly if you get behind 1-0. Even when hitters are swinging at his mid-mid stuff he's getting favorable results despite not having a fastball profile that would suggest that to be the case. Eventually, this is going to catch up to DJ Herz. Hitters are going to swing more often early in the count. They'll likely get used to a funky delivery and hit his fastball around league average (the way his total fastball wOBA mirrors league average) in mid-mid situations. When that happens he's going to regress. He'll either start to get tagged or be forced off piping fastballs early in the count which could cause him to go with a former pitch mix that was more conducive to the walk totals rising. Regardless, I don't think this is a pattern for long term success. He's not a dumpster fire of an MLB player, but I think he's going to eventually get found out. When that happens, I think he's going to have to find a new way to get guys out and based on his history of strike throwing, my confidence on that is...iffy at best.

My best guess on the Cristian Hernandez thing is two fold: 1. I think he's always going to carry the weight of "baby-A-Rod" regardless of how much we know these things shouldn't matter. When you set hype at that level, even really smart people can be blinded or let down due to a bias. 2. I think he's going to bear the weight of his slow start to his professional career. Realistically, starting him at Myrtle at 18, the assumption would be 1 year = 1 level up. Being that he's still at South Bend, even though we know development isn't linear, and that he's still young and has plenty of time, I think people are going to remain cautious on their rankings. I'd expect, even this winter, people to be safe with their rankings. It's easier to claim breakout and be hyped about him if he crushes it in 2025 rather than be the guy who boosts him up only for him to struggle based on his past.

He wasn't claimed. So another team will have to sign him, then we will only get a pro-rated league-minimum credit back. I'd guess we don't.

Bringing up Nealy who could end the season in the back-end reliever circle with guys like Porter Hodge and Tyson Miller moving into next year. Good bit of business.

Good to see Brethowr to Myrtle. He got whacked in the head with a pitch. Seems like he's okay.

It's one step at a time for me. They're within a game of .500. Let's get to that watermark first. Then you worry about jumping some of these teams in front of you, like the Giants and the Cardinals. Then you start worrying about the playoffs. This year has been an odd mirror image of last season. Last year it felt like most of the first part of the season, things were going as good as you could have hoped. Players were generally healthy, guys like Bellinger landed on their feet, and come the end of August, the team had a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Bad injury luck, coupled with negative variance and the team fell apart. Maybe this year we continue the inverse; we had the injuries early, the negative variance and the >10% chance of making the playoffs. We're starting to see guys come around. We're getting healthier. Who knows what the rest of the year brings?

Trying to get O'Hoppe was the right move. Bummer they couldn't get that over the line. I'd be surprised if some smoke with that in the winter didn't pop back up, even if just a token reference because the Cubs had previous interest.

As stated, I wasn't saying anything about Robert being cooked or not. The previous poster mentioned they didn't know his injury history exactly. I provided it with context that it *is* a good amount of injuries. Nothing in that post was to be taken further as I was not entering into this debate. Only providing the details someone asked for.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/luis-robert-player-injuries His injury history is extensive. I'm not saying he is or isn't toast, but Robert isn't a typical 26-year-old in terms of his injuries. Some of those are more nagging, others are 60-day IL trips, but Robert has a long history.