Jason Ross

Same. King has some aspects that I think the Cubs like, but his overall profile has him in the same category (for different reasons) as I have someone like Vance Honeycutt - they feel like un-Cub draft picks. At least under Kantrovitz. Seaver King feels like someone the Cubs would draft under Wilkin.

Merv has a broken hand, yes.

There's a lot to like with Baldwin. He's running an 78.7% contact rate and a huge 25% barrel rate right now. His in-zone-whiff is miniscule (11.5%), and he's hitting lefties better than righties. The exit velocities are really good too. Also, seems to not struggle with velocity. The big issue is that he just doesn't get a lot of loft; he's hitting a ton of ground balls. He makes a lot of swing decisions on the outer-third of the plate and these (coupled with low and in) are where the ground balls come from. So I'd say he'd be an interesting return. Get the guy to stop swinging at pitches on the opposite third and grounding out on them, attack more pitches to generate loft...and there might be a pretty good hitter there.

Oops, sorry, I missed this. Spoiler alert: I've got him on the risers! He started off pretty rough, but I've really liked what I've seen from him in the past handful of starts! I'm not like "over the moon", but he's made progress and looks more settled. In May he was one of my biggest bummers, but now, I actually think he's looking up!

King is...fine? I'm not a big King guy. I can see the athleticism in him, and in this draft, King is probably as good as the next guy. But given the options on the board, I'm going to keep pounding the drum on Ryan Waldschmidt. He reminds me a lot of the "good" version of Andrew Benintendi when he first came up; someone who hits the ball hard, doesn't strike out a lot, has some real athleticism despite playing a corner spot. It might not be the 4.4 fWAR 123 wRC+ year in and out, but I think a "light" version of that is on the cards. I know the fanbase is pretty hard in on Yesevage...I'm pretty luke warm there. It's not that he's a bad pitcher or a bad pick, but he feels like the standard 10-20 draft-range-college-arm that you can find most drafts; he's solid, has some good stuff with maybe one pitch that pops more than others. There's a solid mid-rotation arm with a little projection that maybe you squeeze the 98% out of him and he's a solid #2...but I'm just not overly enthralled here, either. If it's Yesavage, I won't have a single bone to pick...he's a good prospect in this draft, at this pick. But he's not my pick, either. Give me a college bat, then go arm-arm-arm; this is such a middling draft overall that I think the value is in picking a solid-ish bat, saving some slot and then grabbing upside arms where and when you can.

If we're being realistic, the upside on someone like Yesavage is probably right next to that of the upside on Waldschmidt or Malcom Moore, or just about anyone else the Cubs are going to be picking from. Yesavage isn't really someone you'd project today to be a #1 or a #2 in a traditional rotation; you can make a play for "sum of all your parts" but I think a realistic upside on him is something of a #3-#4 in a good rotation. That's not nothing, but that's also probably right next to Waldschmidt, or Moore, or almost any of the other college bats who will be available at 14. No shade for anyone who prefers one of these names over another, but this ain't the draft (on paper) where you're drafting a superstar potential from where the Cubs are picking. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but I think we have to slide our realistic outlooks on #14 this season. I do expect a more "arm" heavy draft this season overall. though. Kind of why I lean thinking the Cubs will go college-bat in the top and then aim at picking through pitchers most of the way through.

As the midway point of the baseball season ticks over, it's time to examine the health of the Cubs' Minor League System. Today, we will examine the prospects in the Cubs organization who struggled in 2024 and saw their prospect shine decline a bit. Image courtesy of © Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK The reality with prospects is that development is not linear. Sometimes, numbers look bad, but real development is happening under the radar. Prospects who are on this list are not dead, and it doesn't mean they're done and dusted—it just means statistically, they didn't have the best first half of the season. Some of these are top prospects; others are more fringe guys. Some have seen their years derailed by injury. As with the other looks, these are in no particular ranking order. Brennen Davis, OF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) This might feel like a weird addition if you're looking at his 137 wRC+, but I think, despite that, Davis belongs in this category for a few reasons. As awesome as a 137 wRC+ is, and as much as we can't just cherry-pick statistics, I think it's important to highlight the path of Davis' season. Davis struggled from April 12th until May 9th (22 games, 85 PAs), posting an 84 wRC+ and a sub .100 ISO with a 61% contact rate. From May 10th to May 21st (ten games, 41 PAs), Davis had a 326 wRC+, hit seven home runs (he's hit ten all season), and looked like an all-worlder. After the 21st of May, Davis had another 12 games in which he posted a 64 wRC+. He has struggled with contact throughout the season, posting one of the lowest contact rates in the International League. Most of the 137 wRC+ comes from a ten-game stretch, whereas in the other 37 games, he's been pretty terrible. To make matters worse, he reportedly got an MRI on his back and hasn't played since June 11th. Again. I genuinely feel bad for Davis; he's struggled with injuries that aren't his fault. He's been hit in the hand and face, he's had back surgery, he's had stress fractures, and he keeps coming back. But his body doesn't seem capable of staying together, and his season has been held up by ten seemingly uncharacteristic games. BJ Murray, 3b/1b, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) It has been a no-good, very bad season for BJ Murray so far. Unlike Davis, Murray has posted a 64 wRC+ on the season. He's hitting a ton of groundballs, undoing all of the loft he seemingly added last year in Double-A. He has hit eight home runs, which isn't a bad number, but his overall ISO is down to .126 on the year. He's hit RHP and LHP equally as poorly, too, as he's only been marginally better against RHP (.621 OPS to .605). There isn't even a silver lining of "he's doing better lately" with Murray, as he's posted a 50 wRC+ since June 1st, which is even worse than his season line. Entering the season, there was a path to making the Cubs for the former fifteenth-round pick in 2024 if he hit the ground running. Still, sadly, with the start of his 2024, there's just no chance at this point of Murray seeing Chicago this season outside of a massive rash of injuries. The good news is that bad halves of the year happen to players. BJ Murray wouldn't be the first player to get to a new level and struggle for a bit. He remains an interesting enough prospect if he can find some of that 2023 magic, lift the ball a bit more, and find more barrels. He's making a fine amount of contact and isn't chasing a ton. So there's some positives. Let's hope this looks silly by the end of the year! Haydn McGeary, 1b, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) As a first base prospect, you'd better hit, and sadly, the hulking first baseman, Haydn McGeary, has not hit this year. It's been a rough first half, posting just a 95 wRC+, inflated strikeout rates, and a ton of ground balls. The entire Southern League has struggled to hit in 2024, so McGeary's .211/.276/.389 line is a bit hidden under the weight of how bad the league has been, but it's just not enough for someone who has to hit to have value. At the very least, we can point to a small sample of success for the first baseman since mid-May, posting a 135 wRC+ over his last 106 PAs. The K's are still up, but he's hitting home runs at a much better rate and has looked better. It's got to continue, but it's still a rough start of the 2024 season for someone who looked like he might be interesting this season. Josh Rivera, INF, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) Rivera, the Cubs' third-round selection in 2023, has not hit this season, posting a .170/.273/.275 line on the year. Again, the Southern League is suppressed offensively, but this line is still over 30% worse than the league average. Rivera has just three doubles, two triples, and four home runs this year, and it's just not working. The wheels have fallen off in the last month, as he's posted just a 22 wRC+ since May 31st, over his last 84 PAs. The hope is that the Southern League is making him look worse than it is. It's really hard to hit there if your name isn't Triantos, Shaw, or Ballesteros, so there's a little grace to be given. With that said, Rivera is already almost a full year older than someone like Ed Howard and doesn't have the glove profile that Howard had. So, for all of the hand-wringing on Howard over the years, I think there's more juice in that squeeze right now (though that could also be clouded by the fact that one of them is on a heater and the other is as cold as ice) Is there any prospect that you think I missed? Who do you think has lowered their profile in the 2024 season? Leave your comments below! View full article

Bigge has a 20% non-competitive strike rate on the season and aan 18.5% at Iowa right now. It's improving, but that's not going to really help. To put that in perspective, his season total , that's 4% higher than MLB BP average. That's...a big jump. Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Jorge Lopez, Luke Little and Ethan Roberts are all probably just as worthwhile, if not more. Smyly, Brewer and Neris are all whatever, but all require DFA'd and eating money; I just don't think the Cubs are going to to do that with the deadline looming. Daniel Palencia, on the 40 man and on the path back, is probably also ahead of Bigge. Hunter Bigge has big velocity, but doesn't throw a ton of strikes yet. He's not on the 40-man roster...I assume a 40 man spot will open in a few weeks. A few more weeks in Iowa isn't going to change either his developmental plan or the Cubs path, so letting him continue to throw more strikes, and when he doesn't, throw more competitive balls in Iowa is probably the best for both parties. I like Bigge, just think he should probably continue to trend in the right direction with the strike throwing before we dump him in the pen...especially as the Cubs may more a reliever or two in July.

The Chicago Cubs have seven prospects on the MLB Pipeline top-100, which is about the most of any team. If we're worried about prospects, then the Cubs aren't really hurting for that. That doesn't mean they ignore the MiLB side of things, but that as is, the Cubs have plenty to help the long-term prospect of success that doesn't require them to trade a 3-4 win second baseman with control. As well, I directly addressed the second part when I broke down Hoerner's contract, and the "in house" replacements. But let's talk those "in house" replacements. Who's an in-house replacement right now? Matt Shaw and James Triantos have a combined 0 PA's above Double-A currently. And while I think both are good prospects, Triantos' defensive profile at 2b remans "iffy", Shaw might be the future at 3b (he can't be the future at two positions at the same time), and as we have seen over, and over, and over again, expecting prospects to jump straight from Triple-A into three+ win value off the bat is a difficult ask currently. The best prospects on the planet have struggled. And while Shaw and Triantos are fun dudes, they're less universally loved than guys like Jackson Holiday in the prospect world. It's highly unlikely that the 2025 Chicago Cubs are any better than the 2024 Chicago Cubs by trading Nico Hoerner. And I don't think the Chicago Cubs as an organization are looking to be worse in 2025 than 2024. I can understand a bit more of an argument on Happ; but even then I think it's hard ask.

Of course I wrote this yesterday...the day Ed Howard hit his first home run! So his numbers are even better!

I think you're probably going to receive assets back that are unlikely to help the Chicago Cubs for a few years. Teams simply don't trade close-to-the-MLB prospects mid-season, and when near-MLB-ready prospects do get moved, they're generally lower ceiling prospects. It'd also be one thing if these players were making inflated amounts, but neither are. Nico Hoerner is making $11.5m the next two seasons. That's a little over what teams pay for a win (wins on the free market generally go between $8 and $9m or so). Even if you project Shaw as an immediate three win player on his own, $11.5m isn't going to buy much. So while I think the return would be good, it's unlikely to be immediate. Ian Happ is signed for $21m. While he's a little less "surplus value-y" he still offers a good contract due to length/price. I'm a little more willing to move Happ (especially if Bellinger is seemingly opt-ing in). However, with a NTC, Happ's value is probably pretty limited on his own. In the end the Cubs are not rebuilding again; that much is clear. Jed Hoyer is signed through 2025 only right now; he has no reason to tear it down and not shoot for competition in 2025. The Cubs haven't fired him, which is what they'd do if they were cool with ripping it down. I'm not entirely opposed to a Happ trade, but even then, I'm not sure it's making the Cubs any better next year. A lot of this feels like fans just want to high five and say "it'll be different because these guys are gone!" and feel like real change is happening. And I don't disagree that change is needed. But I'm not sure trading either of these are bringing positive changes to the Cubs.

As the midway point of the baseball season slides by, it's time to take a look at the health of the Cubs' farm system. Today, we'll take a look at the prospects in the Cubs organization who have raised their stock throughout the 2024 season. Image courtesy of © MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK Heading into the back half of the season, and with the MLB Draft looming, it's time to take a look at how the Cubs' hitting prospects are doing. These are not ranked in any specific order, as it's just an overall recap of a handful of players who have raised their stock throughout the season. Some have put themselves in prime positions for call-ups, while others have rescued their faltering prospect status. Moises Ballesteros, C, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Very few prospects across baseball have raised their profile as much as Ballesteros has (from an offensive point of view), which is not to suggest his prospect status was low entering the season, either. Big Mo was generally seen as a back-end top-10 prospect in the system, with outside looks and honorable mentions on top-100 lists. The Cubs' catcher was coming off a good season in South Bend, posting a 128 wRC+ as a 19-year-old, and was promoted to Tennessee to start the season as one of the youngest Double-A prospects in the league. What followed was not expected, however. Mo Baller lit Double-A on fire. Through 56 games, he was 53% better than league average, hitting nine home runs, nine doubles, and even a triple, while striking out less than 15% of the time. It was one of the best seasons any 20-year-old has had in Double-A in the last two decades, comparable to the kind of stuff Mike Trout was doing (that's not to say he's Trout, of course). It was clear he was ready for Triple-A Iowa, and he was duly promoted. What's he done? Posted a 150 wRC+ in his first 10 games. There's no stopping the guy right now. Behind the plate, the glove is still a work in progress. He's not MLB-ready yet, and is showing a little more swing-and-miss in Iowa than in previous stops. That's not dousing him in water, just saying it's probably too early to pencil him into the Cubs' DH spot right now. With that said, though, doing just that in September might be viable. Owen Caissie, RF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Caissie remains one of the youngest players in Triple-A, and has responded by getting off the ground running. Seeing a significant decrease in his K% (under 28%) while maintaining a near 15% walk rate, the red-headed right fielder is doing almost everything right. He's flashed improved footwork in the field and a plus arm. Really, the only thing we're missing is the power. Though it's hard to entirely fault a .170 ISO, you'd like to see him generate a little extra loft. What's even more fun is going under the hood. Caissie is hitting lefties better than righties this year, suggesting he's not just a platoon guy moving forward. The contact rate, while not setting the world on fire, is likely "pretty good," at 68%. It's below both the minor- and the major-league average, but with the (projected) power and walks to go with it, that should be offset. Caissie, previously an exit-velocity specialist, has managed to post high BABIPs throughout his pro career, which suggests that when he does connect, he hits it hard enough to maintain that. It's hard to argue his profile hasn't been raised, or at least fleshed out, in 2024. James Triantos, 2B, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) If Ballesteros hadn't had such a marvelous first half, I think we'd be paying more attention to the great year James Triantos is putting together in Tennessee. The knock on Triantos has always been the lack of slug in his game, but he's shown a newfound commitment to generating power this season, as he's hit seven home runs on the year (nearly double his four last year in High-A) while nearly doubling his ISO. The strikeout rate remains at a minuscule sub-10%, and on the whole, he's been a 138 wRC+ hitter. The diminutive second baseman has really taken off over the last month. Since the calendar ticked over to June, Triantos has a 208 wRC+; a .600+ SLG; is striking out 7% of the time; and has been absolutely scorching-hot. He's even playing better defense and finding success at second base and in center field. He's almost assuredly going to be on the move to Iowa shortly. Ed Howard, SS, South Bend Cubs (High-A) This one is less about a top prospect, but about a prospect who's raised his game and re-emerged as a potentially useful guy. I was ready to write him off, entering mid-May; he looked sluggish, slow and sapped of the energy that made him a fun and interesting prospect in 2020. He's had a tough road. He didn't get a senior year of high school (thanks, COVID); was pushed into Myrtle Beach right away (a very tough hitting environment); and then right when he started to look comfortable, he had a devastating hip injury. Upon his return from it, he looked toasted. Then... something changed. From May 25 to the present, Howard has played 24 games. In 94 plate appearances, he's managed a .379 batting average, has hit eight doubles (of his season total of 12), has a 156 wRC+, and has shown a quality approach at the plate. The only thing that's missing are the home runs. Most of all, he's remained healthy through this time. Suspend for a moment your awareness that he's a first-round pick in real danger of not panning out. Once you do so, you realize: that's a great run. A 156 wRC+ is higher than Ballesteros has in Iowa or Tennessee on the season. Yeah, it's fewer games, and yeah, it could just be a hot streak, but has he not raised his prospect profile? He finally looks like someone who's not only settled at a level, but may be really figuring a level out. At 22 years old, he's not dead, and being a 22-year-old in Tennessee (to where, like others, I suspect he'll be promoted shortly) doesn't put him behind any sort of acceptable developmental arc. Maybe he's not going to be a star, but even if he's back in play as a backup infielder at the MLB level... well, a month ago, I thought he may not even make it the entire season before being released. Great comeback story, and he deserves to be on this list. Alfonsin Rosario, OF, Myrtle Beach (Low-A) Rosario, a sixth-round selection in 2023, has really made himself known in Myrtle Beach. First, the negative: he's striking out a lot. Like, a lot, a lot. The near-35% punchout rate is not great, but that was kind of expected. The book on Rosario was "big tools, but raw." However, if we put that aside for a moment, the rest of what Rosario's been doing is nothing short of impressive. He's hit 10 home runs (many of the "very loud" variety), has an ISO north of .200, has stolen 13 bases (this man is listed at 6-foot-1, 220 pounds; he's big), and has posted a 138 wRC+ in his first taste of full-season professional baseball. Oh, did I mention he's been playing center field? The strikeouts need to get ironed out at some point, but as a sixth-round pick, Rosario is flashing all the tools you'd hope to see. There's work to do, but you don't normally expect this out of this kind of pick--at least not this quickly. He's definitely a name to watch moving forward. Maybe the strikeouts never get fixed and this will be exploited later, but I'm impressed with his start and excited to see where he goes. There's massive upside here, even if it's an unlikely ceiling to be reached. Cristian Hernández, SS, Myrtle Beach (Low-A) Hernández felt like he was really starting to wane in the public eye, because he really had struggled since being placed on the Myrtle Beach roster. Lanky and awkward, he seemed to struggle to control the barrel through the zone. Mechanical tweaks, some added muscle and all of a sudden, Hernández is cruising in South Carolina. Posting a 141 wRC+, with far improved K% and BB%, and a .135 ISO, he's starting to look like a total package. It feels like forever ago that the hype train ran out of steam, but Hernández is just 20 years old. Once he gets promoted to South Bend (which could happen any day now), he'll be in an age-appropriate league, and he's arguably a fringe-top-10 Cubs prospect, pre-Draft. This is a really great season for someone who had slid off many top-20 lists entering the year. Who do you think is having a great 2024 season so far? Have I forgotten anyone? Let me know in the comments section below! View full article

I'll admit the more legwork I've put on Malcolm Moore, the more I've been impressed. The .255 batting average this season is the one *statistical* knock, but based on everything I've read about his batted ball data, feels like it's a mitigated concern and was partially due to bad luck, partially due to a new approach at the plate. Defensively is the question, but it seems as though Moore is someone determined to try to make it work, based on that article, for whatever that's worth to you. If the Cubs believe he's an MLB catcher...he's probably moving into 1/2 position with Ryan Waldschmidt as my favorite picks at 14 right now. Cam Smith rounds out my top-3.

No idea. Interesting to note: Triantos also out tonight. Not talking trade, but could be moving day?

The hope is that Jed Hoyer has had an ability to reflect on his roster building, understand that the Cubs are truly lacking the best-of-the-best types of talents and addresses that a bit more significantly this offseason. Juan Soto is a name the Cubs should entirely go get, for example. They should be willing to swing a fairly large trade as well. I don't feel confident that Hoyer's introspective like that. But crazier things have happened.

I'd say it's deeper than Condon/Bazzana; hell, as of now, it looks like neither are going 1.1 (J.J. Weatherholt is the clubhouse leader) but either Condono or Bazzana can go as low as 1.5! I've got eight guys in my top-tier of prospects currently. There's a few guys in the 9-12 range I think stand out a little more than others...and then pretty steep drop. But yeah, the range where the Cubs are taking guys? It's a crapshoot. I think some team will convince themselves one of these guys is a star. Cam Smith, or James Tibbs are guy I think I can see a team believing that. But outside of a team really buying into one of them? I suspect there will be a lot of teams who have guy similarly rated and will go with signability.

That's not the point of that post, Cuzi. I am well aware of how you feel about Jed. I'm not super-team-Jed either at this stage. Only explaining, even if the Cubs trade players like Happ or Taillon at the deadline, it wouldn't be in the idea of a rebuild based on how that tweet interpreted Morosi. It wasn't a discussion about Hoyer's ability to perform that move, it was an explanation of what the move would be akin to. If the Cubs were doing a 2021 tear down, I fully expect Hoyer would have to be fired before the deadline. That he hasn't been should signal that whatever the Cubs are doing, it will not be a tear down, rebuild. If they trade players it will be to use whatever they get (financial flexibility, prospects, whatever) to attempt to put a competitive team on the field next year.

It's Morsi, so TIFWIW. But based on the way that tweet framed his interview, it doesn't sound like a rebuild. Call it whatever you want, but it sounded like the Cubs were going to try to either get financial flexibility to spend next offseason and/or get prospects which would help the roster (presumably they'd be younger prospects but that doesn't meant they can't be traded later or used to restock the system on other trades). How effective you believe Hoyer is at making that is also a personal opinion. But it sounds very much like Hoyer's seat ain't that hot if he's willing to trade those players. And considering his deal is up in 2025, he still has to put forth a fairly competitive team if he hopes to have a contract in 2026.

Not to speak for TT, but let's say the Cubs trade...Taillon to clear money (that we have assurances will remain in the budget next year). Maybe it's a Happ or a Suzuki. You know, just someone who makes $15-20m. But let's say they also make their version of a Jose Berrios trade like the Jays did in 2021; they were 4th place in the AL East and 5 games out of a WC spot and brought in a controllable SP for the next few years. I'm not going to speculate exactly who that is, I think any trade like that would be a bit of a shock. But that'd be a way you could do both: you trade some now and you add some for later. That's just a rough outline...there'd be more. Just...stuff like that. I don't think it has to be all one or all the other.

The trade I keep coming back to is the Blue Jays trade for Jose Berrios in 2021. Toronto was 52-48, but they were also in fourth place, in a stacked AL East and almost 5 games out of a WC spot. It's a bit different considering the Jays were probably closer to making the playoffs in 2021 than the the Cubs are in 2024. but they made that trade for the next few years. Who's the Cubs Berrios? I don't know. But I'd like to see the Cubs get creative. I'm not against exploring a Taillon trade to open up some money. Bellinger, if a team is willing to give up something decent. Moving a Happ or a Suzuki, if you can. Moving a reliever like a Miller, or a Neris (if someone wants to buy him turning it around). Not a full-fire-sale, just see what's out there. I'm fine moving some of these guys while also trying to buy some talent for the future at the same time. All of the moves I'd be making would be with an eye on competing in 2025. I think you can do both; trade some of these decent, fringe guys and also use prospect depth to maybe acquire something a little more long term.

I don't think teams would view it that way. We know better than to take how fans think of a player and think that teams perceive it the same way. I'm not sure either wave their NTC. I'm not sure the Cubs would even ask, though.

Ian Happ's 121 wRC+ is right in line with his last two (119 and 120). He's on pace for 3 wins this year (3.2 last and 3.6 the year before). Suzuki has a career 122 wRC+ and a 122 wRC+ this year. I dont think either would be selling low. Not necessarily advocating for it, only suggesting that I think both would be valued fine based on their baseball merits currently. Their NTC's change the valuation far more, IMO.