At The Halfway Point Of Season, These Three Cubs Prospects Are Sliding Down Prospect Lists

The reality with prospects is that development is not linear. Sometimes, numbers look bad, but real development is happening under the radar. Prospects who are on this list are not dead, and it doesn't mean they're done and dusted—it just means statistically, they didn't have the best first half of the season. Some of these are top prospects; others are more fringe guys. Some have seen their years derailed by injury. As with the other looks, these are in no particular ranking order.

Brennen Davis, OF, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
This might feel like a weird addition if you're looking at his 137 wRC+, but I think, despite that, Davis belongs in this category for a few reasons. As awesome as a 137 wRC+ is, and as much as we can't just cherry-pick statistics, I think it's important to highlight the path of Davis' season. Davis struggled from April 12th until May 9th (22 games, 85 PAs), posting an 84 wRC+ and a sub .100 ISO with a 61% contact rate. From May 10th to May 21st (ten games, 41 PAs), Davis had a 326 wRC+, hit seven home runs (he's hit ten all season), and looked like an all-worlder. After the 21st of May, Davis had another 12 games in which he posted a 64 wRC+. He has struggled with contact throughout the season, posting one of the lowest contact rates in the International League. Most of the 137 wRC+ comes from a ten-game stretch, whereas in the other 37 games, he's been pretty terrible. To make matters worse, he reportedly got an MRI on his back and hasn't played since June 11th. Again.

I genuinely feel bad for Davis; he's struggled with injuries that aren't his fault. He's been hit in the hand and face, he's had back surgery, he's had stress fractures, and he keeps coming back. But his body doesn't seem capable of staying together, and his season has been held up by ten seemingly uncharacteristic games. 

BJ Murray, 3b/1b, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
It has been a no-good, very bad season for BJ Murray so far. Unlike Davis, Murray has posted a 64 wRC+ on the season. He's hitting a ton of groundballs, undoing all of the loft he seemingly added last year in Double-A. He has hit eight home runs, which isn't a bad number, but his overall ISO is down to .126 on the year. He's hit RHP and LHP equally as poorly, too, as he's only been marginally better against RHP (.621 OPS to .605). There isn't even a silver lining of "he's doing better lately" with Murray, as he's posted a 50 wRC+ since June 1st, which is even worse than his season line. 

Entering the season, there was a path to making the Cubs for the former fifteenth-round pick in 2024 if he hit the ground running. Still, sadly, with the start of his 2024, there's just no chance at this point of Murray seeing Chicago this season outside of a massive rash of injuries. The good news is that bad halves of the year happen to players. BJ Murray wouldn't be the first player to get to a new level and struggle for a bit. He remains an interesting enough prospect if he can find some of that 2023 magic, lift the ball a bit more, and find more barrels. He's making a fine amount of contact and isn't chasing a ton. So there's some positives. Let's hope this looks silly by the end of the year!

Haydn McGeary, 1b, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A)
As a first base prospect, you'd better hit, and sadly, the hulking first baseman, Haydn McGeary, has not hit this year. It's been a rough first half, posting just a 95 wRC+, inflated strikeout rates, and a ton of ground balls. The entire Southern League has struggled to hit in 2024, so McGeary's .211/.276/.389 line is a bit hidden under the weight of how bad the league has been, but it's just not enough for someone who has to hit to have value. At the very least, we can point to a small sample of success for the first baseman since mid-May, posting a 135 wRC+ over his last 106 PAs. The K's are still up, but he's hitting home runs at a much better rate and has looked better. It's got to continue, but it's still a rough start of the 2024 season for someone who looked like he might be interesting this season.

Josh Rivera, INF, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) 
Rivera, the Cubs' third-round selection in 2023, has not hit this season, posting a .170/.273/.275 line on the year. Again, the Southern League is suppressed offensively, but this line is still over 30% worse than the league average. Rivera has just three doubles, two triples, and four home runs this year, and it's just not working. The wheels have fallen off in the last month, as he's posted just a 22 wRC+ since May 31st, over his last 84 PAs.

The hope is that the Southern League is making him look worse than it is. It's really hard to hit there if your name isn't Triantos, Shaw, or Ballesteros, so there's a little grace to be given. With that said, Rivera is already almost a full year older than someone like Ed Howard and doesn't have the glove profile that Howard had. So, for all of the hand-wringing on Howard over the years, I think there's more juice in that squeeze right now (though that could also be clouded by the fact that one of them is on a heater and the other is as cold as ice)

Is there any prospect that you think I missed? Who do you think has lowered their profile in the 2024 season? Leave your comments below!

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