Jason Ross

Taillon so far averaging 91.4 mph on the fastball. It's better than the 90's, and it's cold, so not entirely red flag, but not green, either.

This is the Cubs account. The other is from Marquee. But considering the Cubs own Marquee, same umbrella.

Yeah Cubs social media is having a tough start to the year. This and blue on blue font on others...they're replacement level right now.

My point is very different: Jameson Taillon at 91mph is almost assuredly approaching replacement level. His fastball last year sat at an xwOBA of .363. We see about a .10 increase in xwOBA against for every mph drop - you can see that in the statcast data I provided. we should expect it sitting around .370 against (he's a year removed from a .380 xwOBA on the fastball at 92+mph without the changeup). Shota Imanaga at 91mph suffers similarly, Hitters chase secondaries, like Taillon's kick change, far less when the fastball become worse. They don't just hunt fastballs, they sit on them. And his hard hit% and numbers against that pitch are really bad. His hard hit% was low last year because he was able to get hitters to go after that changeup. That probably doesn't happen nearly as much with a diminished fastball. Much like Shota saw the same issues in hitters ignoring his splitter. Coming back to his fastball, without that changeup the year prior he was pretty bad with the fastball. When hitters begin to lean off the changeup more and sit fastball, we can probably expect similarly terrible results, plus some, on the fastball. We can talk about his control issues in ST, and as Bertz said, maybe he was dealing with a lower body injury. But if 91mph fastball is the new norm, Taillon almost assuredly doesn't belong on a roster looking to win a division. Especially one with as many depth options as the Cubs have. And one with Justin Steele on the way. If Taillon sits at 92+mph or so, he's probably alright enough like he was last year as a inning eater who you can count on as a #5 regardless of aspirations. But there's little margin here for him to dip and keep that.

It's a range of: 90-92, 91-93 and 92-94. I added an extra 1mph on each side to each to capture things like fractional mph, so the low end is dipping a little too low and capturing things like "90.2mph" fastballs but as we lower he range there's simply not many pitches in that range to begin with (you can see the % of pitches). As well, it's not necessarily to show exact data, but the trend: while 91mph doesn't sound so bad compared to 92mph, for someone like Taillon, it's probably close to a deathknell on this team. He already is someone who's fastball is more hittable than the league average and his strikeout rate is well below league average. He has little margin to lose to begin with. Any margin, even if it sounds minimal, is bad. I hope to see him sitting around 92mph for all the reasons Bertz mentioned above. I'd give him a handful of starts to prove it even if it isn't tonight. But he isn't someone I'd keep banging the drum for on the last year of his deal if say, we're staring down 91mph fastballs at the end of April, too.

Each MPH is a pretty decent jump in wOBA against and xwOBA. Roughly speaking between 91, 92, and 93mph, the numbers get significantly more in favor of a hitter the lower you go. Below you'll see statcast data from 2025 (I ran the range from 1mph+/- to account for fractional mph). But the point remains: each mph bleed is significant. The first is 90-92, then so on and so forth. Taillon, last year, had an xwOBA over the xwOBA a 90-92mph fastball had last year, meaning it's a bit more hittable already. If Taillon is sitting even at 91mph, I'd say it's a pretty concerning number for someone who has well below league average K% already.

Feel free to join us live tonight. We're going to try something a little different; live podcast and then into almost a "pre-game" talk. If the Cubs play on a Tuesday, we'll try to do a game like this weekly if people like it.

He'll probably get some runway. He deserves some runway. I know everyone likes to overreact to every little thing, but Taillon has been a contributor and you can't make a snap change in three starts. That said, the Cubs have lots of ability to replace him, so they shouldn't have to give him too much runway, either. But if he's not a useful starter than I'm not sure what the play is. He isn't likely much of a reliever if his fastball is sitting 91mph or so; even if he's getting a 2 mph bump. They can't send him to Iowa (and no he isn't going to play phantom injury, let's skip it). I hope he's back to around 92-93mph tonight and all of this can be punted down the road a bit.

Early trends: Cubs have increased 4 seam, sinker is barely being used, more slider, less curve, more change.

So...do we still want a do-over on the Cabrera/Caissie trade now that he's got 5 innings under his belt?

Did some Ryan Johnson research. Here is his path to the MLB: 1. Homeschool in HS. Pitched in a religious home school league. 2. Dallas Baptist college 3. Straight to MLB. 4. 12 appearances in A+ 5. Back to MLB

Just saying. https://northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/chicago-cubs/how-ian-happs-small-changes-can-make-a-world-of-differences-r2695/

Walking PCA should be a "straight to Double A" action for this pitcher. The Angles are so weird.

Just saying that maybe someone who throws this few strikes and had a 7.00 ERA in his first 14 innings...like maybe let him pitch in the minors a few times.

No one has ever made hitting 95mph on the gun look nerdier than this guy.

AZ Phil has some whopper takes, but this one makes things make a bit of sense if it's correct.

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Ian Happ has been a much-maligned player over the course of his tenure with the Cubs. I've personally written about him a few times, including once this offseason, and once last fall. Happ doesn't deserve a lot of the animosity thrown his way; he's a really good baseball player. Even on Opening Day, a quick browsing of reddit had me finding posts complaining about him hitting in the 3-hole. The Cubs lost two of three over the weekend to the Washington Nationals. Between the disappointing results and the Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner extensions, Happ's big weekend kind of flew under the radar. The Cubs' left fielder hit two home runs, had three hits overall, and was one of the standouts offensively. In fact, he's probably owed a home run, as a flyout that he smashed in Thursday's Opening Day contest would have flown an estimated 113 feet farther had the wind not intervened. That was the largest weather-related difference tracked in the Statcast Era. Underlying his first weekend were some encouraging signs for the 31-year old, who will turn 32 later this summer. The age matters here. As we've gotten more and more data publicly available to us through Statcast and Baseball Savant, one thing has become clear: 32 is roughly the age when we begin to see a league wide trend of bat speed decline. This decline is then more pronounced after. Bat speed is an indicator of power and exit velocity, so dropping bat speed isn't particularly good. Despite standing right on that dreaded doorstep, Happ has seen a noticeable increase in bat speed so far in 2026, averaging 74.6 mph on his swings, up from 71.4mph last year. Not only is it up, but his current numbers would mark a career-best bat speed. Obviously, it's very early, but this is an encouraging sign. Diving deeper, there appear to be some small changes in how Happ has set up at the plate, particularly from the right side. While he's a little deeper in the box both left-handed and right-handed, the difference is more pronounced from his right-handed stance. Another change with his swing against left-handed pitching? He's a bit more open. The first image is of his 2025 data, while the second is from his 2026 so far. Any tweaks against lefties would be welcome for a hitter who hasn't been particularly great against them for the last few years. From 2023 through 2025 he's got a 102 wRC+ against southpaws. Compare this to his 125 wRC+ against righties, and you can begin to see the difference. A 102 isn't horrible, but it also isn't anywhere near as good as Happ has been against righties. Change is required, and it seems as though there may be a change that the outfielder has worked on. To see this change in practice, look below at that fly ball that he should have hit for a home run, wind not withstanding. Cionel Perez, a left-handed reliever with the Nationals, gets a 96-mph fastball in on the hands of Happ in the upper third of the zone. Happ is able to clear his front side and get his barrel to it. He can't control the wind, but because he's just a little more open, and a little off the plate, he's found the ability to get to this pitch and hit it with authority. Most days that lands on the street, not in a glove. Why does this matter? Traditionally, Happ doesn't do much damage on that pitch. Up-and-in fastballs are anything but his strength. Last season, he had essentially no success in this area of the strike zone against lefties. Below is this pitch from Thursday, superimposed onto a contour chart from 2025 of all Happ's batted balls with an exit velocity of 90+ MPH against lefties. Plainly, this is imperfect; the game feed Savant provides is not height-adjusted to the hitter, as the 2025 data is (you can see how much smaller the strike zone is in the image against Perez). Because of this, I suspect that this pitch is truly higher than it looks here, but even as displayed, it's outside Happ's "power zone" against lefties from last year. When we add in that likely adjustment, it's pretty apparent that this is something he didn't do last year. I can't say for certain that Happ was able to get to this pitch because he's a little farther back, a little farther off the plate, and a little more open, but all of these things would allow him to better get to that pitch and clear his front side. Add in the increase in bat speed, and the small tweaks would appear to give Happ a bit of a better platform to hit the ball with authority against whatever-sided arm he's facing. Happ has always been impressively consistent year-to-year. While he may fluctuate and go hot-and-cold within it, you always know what you're getting with him by the end; it's one of his best qualities. If Happ's indeed swinging a bit harder and his subtle adjustments are going to help him against lefties, than perhaps he won't be as predictable in 2026—not in a bad way, but in a good one. There's a long season to go, but this may very well be the best version of the switch-hitter the Cubs have ever seen. What do you think of these subtle changes? Do you think Happ can begin to produce better against LHP? View full article

Owners are cheap and would love to save any money they can (I.E. see how they handled the MiLB side of things in 2020). But I also don't think this is just an owner cost cutting move. Players out of HS can earn NIL money now and if you can go to college and get paid, it's a win for these kids in many ways. UK SS Tyler Bell passed up second round money from the Rays to go play in the SEC. He certainly got NIL money and will likely be a 1st round pick meaning he'll double dip.

I don't think they were "desperate" so much as Cabrera does a bunch of what the Cubs like and the swap made sense. We have OF'ers who are young and we need some SP. The Marlins clearly liked Caissie dating back to last year (which I get, I like Caissie too). I think we'll all be fine with the trade when it's all said and done. Edwin Cabrera is fun. Guys who throw 99mph with a 94 mph changeup don't grow on trees.

I love Owen Caissie more than anyone, but "hell of a price tag" was a borderline top-50 prospect, let's pump the brakes, man. Owen Caissie has plenty of swing and miss in his game. And we should know better than to flip out about prospects that get traded and their first month of action. Cabrera is a bit of a risk, but was in a bad pitching org for much of his career. The Marlins are on the right track there right now, and they started to really figure it out last year (also coincides with his best run). So how about we take a deep breath right now. Maybe Caissie is a star and Cabrera sucks. Or maybe Caissie runs a 30% K rate and doesn't figure it out and Cabrera turns into a solid SP. We have no idea. Hot take statements can make you look real silly in the count of a few weeks when we're talking the first weekend and when one of them hasn't thrown a pitch yet.

This is all more fun than the striking out and the weak contact.

Make it three, Pete. Make. It. Three.

Happ sucks.

I've been told Bregman couldn't possibly be good since the Cubs aren't cheating.