Jason Ross

The pitch lab thing is everyone's favorite scapegoat but it's not the issue. Pitch labs are good because they're really just data machines. Think of them like baseball savant on steroids. It's what teams do with the data that is always the questionable stuff. Some tinkers will work, others won't. This is why sometimes Pitcher X will be bad with one organization and pop with another; they're working from similar data sets but are reading and tweaking the guy differently. And like with anything, certain teams specialize in certain things. So don't blame the lab. It's just a vehicle.

Swanson is at Wrigley with this stuff. Good chance he's activated today and if not, by Friday and Murray heads back to Iowa.

To be fair, it's not entirely a scapegoat thing. And that's not an anti-Hottovy thing, but this year the Cubs haven't really had a lot of success tweaking guys like they have. They traded for Kittredge at the deadline last year, tweaked a few things and he went nuclear for the rest of the way. This year, they took Zeferjahn, continued to tweak and...results have varied. That's not saying it's all on him, but that's kind of the thing we're seeing not happening this year. That wasn't a cheap trade and the results haven't panned out. Nor do I blame that on scouting. And it isn't as if the scrap heap thing hasn't worked in years past. This year hasn't really been the case. Would I blame it all on Hottovy? Oh hell no. But when you have an all systems failure like we're seeing, it's usually an all systems failure and Hottovy is going to shoulder some of that. Pitching coaches are an easy change, easier than Baseball Ops, easier than full-staff turnover, and are such, the first to go. So it's probably going to be a bit of a "change is necessary" scapegoat thing, but it isn't like Hottovy isn't in some shape or form apart of this failure, too.

I think the issue with how they haven't had a pipeline of relievers is probably a bunch of different things all rearing their heads at once. First, the 2020 and 2021 drafts are really difficult years for teams to have nailed and the Cubs really haven't had a lot of luck from them. Certainly some teams found some guys, but with how scouting and development basically took a pause there, it's really hard to blame anyone. That's not a full on "pass" given, but I find it interesting these are basically the two drafts Kantrovitz whiffed on almost entirely and they're probably the two most difficult drafts we've had. Beyond that, the IFA guys just haven't popped. IFA arms, are also, largely lottery tickets. If prep arms in the draft at the hardest to predict, 16 year old kids from Latin America are even harder. Also, something I think is bad luck in some aspects. But also much deeper failures in development; these kids take forever to pop (if you sign at 16 and get to the bigs by 24, that's eight freakin' years!). That's a failure of development that goes back a while, and probably starts well before Hoyer took over. Sadly, it hasn't really changed much, though there's some signs of a few guys maybe bubbling up. It's not all bad luck though. The Cubs have lost guys via trade that were high picks (Jackson Ferris to name one, Ty Johnson being another). They probably gave up on someone like Jermiah Estrada too soon. And they were probably too far into drafting guys with secondaries that they could hopefully squeeze fastball juice out of, as opposed to guys with stuff that they could teach control. Too many Dom Reid's and not enough guys like they took this draft. Add it all up and there's just a dearth of interesting arms. Those reliever types are generally those "big stuff but oopsie, no control" types. The few the Cubs had flamed out (Luke Little) but it's a numbers game. You'll have five Littles to one decent pan out, but when you don't have many, you get very few. 2026 was a heavy arm-draft and while I think 2027 will need to be more bats than 2026 were, based on how they shifted their focus from Dom Reid types to like Carson Jasa types, they will hopefully get more of these random relief guys. But it's likely not going. to help for a few years, and that''s going to continue to suck.

It's been an interesting way to build a staff, and the hope is that learning has happened, but who knows? We'll have to take a "wait and see" approach with the young pitching; but internally I know the team thinks they're solving the pitching issues with Zombro. He's got influence across the board, but I think his influence will be felt more through the draft and development than in terms of the MLB side of things more than anything (I do think he's apart of the discussion there, but I think he's probably more helping the team find Trent Thorntons than overall grand roster construction). Also important to pay attention to Dan Kantrovitz this offseason, his name has popped up for bigger openings and he might be out. Have to see how that plays out in that aspect. On the MLB side, I expect Hottovy will be gone by the end of the playoffs, fair or not (and I think it's a bit of column A and B to be frank). This offseason will be a telling one as once again the team will have the opportunity to spend on pitching (Skubal, King, Taira as examples) and will also need to do some offensive work (LF/RF namely). And with the upcoming CBA shrinking the offseason timeline, they won't be on "Jed-time" this year where he can let the market play out and whittle people down. We're at a point of (likely) back-to-back playoff appearances and a recent extension that Hoyer is certainly safe this offseason (barring absolute collapse), but I also think 2027 is kind of a "make or break" it year for him. Which really makes this an offseason to watch on that front. Does he come out guns blazing to fix the pitching? Is it an over correction? Is this the "mega contract" offseason for him?

I want to be fair to Hottovy: there's a reason why the bullpen got bad all of a sudden and it isn't really on him, there. The Cubs are kind of patchwork because of a lot of injuries. Palencia has lost run or ride (depending on the night) on the fastball post injury. Cabrera has been missing in action for months; not shocking he's rusty. Caleb Theilbar is as old as I am; not shocking he's rough. Jacob Webb is absolutely struggling right now, but good reminder, he was also the best pen arm we had 85% of the year. Things I do think we can trace back to Hottovy have been the tweaks made on players. We haven't seen Zeferjahn take steps forward. Cabrera's tweaks weren't taking. They haven't found some of the magic they had. And I think it's on those margins where a new, fresh take is probably in order. This isn't Hottovy's problem nor his making, but I also think there's likely some aspect in which fresh, new ideas are welcome.

I'm rarely the "fire the coach" guy, but I do think we're at a point where Hottovy's time has likely run a course. Not as a scapegoat, but as a "something has to change" thing. Sometimes simply having the same exact voice in the room for a long time runs its' course. Fresh eyes. Look at the problem from a new angle and offer a different potential solution. They can't do it today, and I won't lay this entirely on his feet (at some point it's the pitcher's fault for being bad) however the Cubs can't just replace the entire pitching staff as easily as they can switch up the pitching coach. This isn't really his fault across the board. Injuries have hurt. Player's haven't produced. But I do think the Cubs' can find a benefit from hearing a new, fresh perspective on these things in 2027.

Palencia hasn't been captain reliable either. And it's hard for BP guys to sit and then come back. Sadly, there aren't options right now that make sense. Everyone has a glaring red flag. Hard to blame Counsell on these things.

Solid outing for Guasman. Good offense, went 5.2 IP, 15 whiffs, 2 runs.

Martin won't be back. There isn't enough time. That one ain't happening. I also wonder about Steele, though.

Up until last season, many were convinced the Cubs wouldn't sign any more long term contracts, wouldn't use deferred money, etc... A good reminder, Jed was around when the Cubs signed John Lester. It was as the #2, but he learned a lesson that those contracts can work out well. I don't think it's that far out of his wheelhouse for him to sign a major SP. Also good thing to note; despite the immediacy of injuries to pitchers, they are aging better than hitters overall. Pitchers like Zach Wheeler and Chris Sale have both had awesome comebacks from injuries into their mid 30s and have no signs of slowing down. Scherzer and Verlander were useful until they were nearly 40. We don't see hitters do that right now. They generally fall off a very sharp cliff at 36. I would not worry about the injuries. It seems counter intuitive with how TJS takes a year or more from most, but SPs are just showing they can be counted on longer. You just have to accept any specific season could disappear.

Plus; you know what's the best way to score the slowest runner from 1b? Hitting the ball so far everyone gets to jog home together.

Cabada, Snell, Bailey and Reid are all worthwhile watches, IMO. Myles Bailey is a really fun add. 3rd round prospect from recent draft. Big whiff but maybe the biggest power in the entire system. Missed most of the year with an injury. Pitching in the AFL is historically "meh". Could put on a show and hit the ball a billion feet. Could strike out in every PA.

I mentioned him above but I'm on the "Lawrence Butler" train. Overall numbers look piss ugly, but he rediscovered his swing recently. Since Aug 1st: 131 wRC+, .370 wOBA, 11 HR, 10.1 BB%, 26.1 K% Shouldn't be super expensive. Probably DH more than anything (not strong defensively) but I think he's a fun buy low candidate.

I like Seiya, but just do not think this is a team who sinks more money into a 30+ player at a non premium position. Especially one like Suzuki, who, while he's had a good year defensively has certainly been up and down over his career and has some injury recurrences. His market will be very strong and the Cubs just seemingly never get connected to players at non-premium positions like that. I think Skubal is very unlikely just due to the circumstances. But I think Seiya is probably just as unlikely. Whatever they do to at LF/RF will probably be a combination of Shaw/Ramirez and some outside additions (Lawrence Butler is a close friend of PCA and I think he could be a possible option as a cheap trade target, for example). Love Seiya, but more than probably any one on the roster I've come to terms that he probably won't be back. Happy to be surprised, though.

Skubal's pricetag probably makes him less likely, but honestly, I think Suzuki, not Skubal, is more likely to be somewhere else. Put another way, the Cubs spending a mega-contract on Skubal is more likely to me than the Cubs paying market value for a RF/DH. Both in terms of how I think the Cubs operate, but also what they will prioritize in the offseason, what they already have and how they view roster building in general.

I've heard that one of the issues with Imai has to deal with soft skills and comfortability. Houston has never had an NPB player come over and apparently he's very schedule oriented and has struggled with this. Is that everything going on? Can't say. I was a big Imai guy so seeing him suck has been a bummer. I was rooting for him regardless of org.

Kaima Taira is a SP the Cubs scouted recently. He's an interesting option, but one that I wouldn't be banking on. For a lack of a better way to explain it, think "What if Moises Ballesteros, but pitcher?" He's listed at 5'8" and over 200lbs, so first, the reason I brought up Mo is...well...he's an awkward looking human being. That shouldn't disqualify him, but I think it's important to note that for the comparison. Secondly is a question of "is this dude a SP?" When the Cubs saw him he sat comfortably at 97mph apparently, and has hit 100mph, but he's been a career reliever for most of his career. He logged 150 IP in 2023, then got hurt and went back to relieving and is back as a SP this year. He will be 27 when he comes stateside, so he'd have two years of starting under his belt and important to remember they go less in NPB. Can he hold up as a guy who goes every 5? He's a really fun dude. The stuff can really pop at times. He's on record talking about pitching science and data. But whether or not he holds up is a question.

Yeah, I totally get that. Baseball owners are about the most easy group on the planet (sports wise) to despise. The Dodgers have some benefits (their TV deal is nuts!) so they spend more than others, but overall, the other 29 owners are nearly all shades of "has more money but cries poor" (and then there's the even worse group of "refuses to spend money and steals all of the revenue sharing" group).

The Dodgers haven't signed everyone. They were thought to be the guaranteed winners of Trea Turner a few years ago, same for Corey Seager. They didn't sign Bichette last offseason. They didn't sign Bregman. They didn't get Juan Soto. They didn't sign Aaron Judge. The Dodgers will certainly splash money. I wouldn't expect that to stop any time soon. But they also won't sign everyone. They have not gotten every top-of-the-market free agent and while it's probable that they will be involved in most of them, there's nothing stopping the Cubs from signing Skubal.

There's no reason the Cubs cannot do both. This shouldn't be a "what-about-ism" and two things can be true at the same time: 1. The Chicago Cubs do need to develop more arms. Internally the hope is that with Tyler Zombro now as the pitching director, a conveyor belt will be created. But this takes considerable time. You don't just find pitchers under the pillow. The Brewers don't either. If the Cubs do this correctly, it's probably two or three years down the road before we really see the fruits. 2. The Chicago Cubs have the resources to go get one of the X-best SP's this offseason and should do just that. Even more so if the first step is going to take years.

He's said nothing of the sort. Not only would Scott Boras have to do considerable damage control (at what point would the Dodgers have to offer him a big contract if he said that?) but it'd be the first time any free agent of any sort did that months before they become a FA. Any comments he's made have been just general praise for organizations but not really anything that should make anyone believe he's signing with LAD immediately. I know everyone has this defeatist attitude about all free agents who are good, but the Dodgers won't sign everyone and the Cubs can sign players. I think we can be skeptical without defeatist (not saying you are for the record, just the general sentiment across Cubdom).

As with the offseason, I wouldn't put him in the plans, but we should also realize that Skubal is going to plug the market. You can *probably* get someone like David Peterson, who was essentially on the DFA-chopping block mid-year and isn't going to be heavily valued in on a quick one/two year deal with a team like the Cubs (it's kind of perfect-storm placement for him, to be fair). Peterson builds value to hit the market again at 32 or 33 and the Cubs get a back-end guy. Win-win. Beyond that, the market is likely going to be a standstill. Even with the CBA stuff. It probably speeds up a bit (teams and players don't have the time to dance in a protracted offseason) but Skubal is going to set the market and then the market will follow (as we usually see). So I think we can do two things: 1. Enter the market with Skubal in mind, do our thing 2. Understanding backup plans

I'd sign one of Holmes/Peterson quick, and then I'd be heavily focused on Skubal. I know, I know, everyone is going to dog pile with the "the Cubs would never" thing, and they deserve skepticism there, but there's some belief on the part of people who have some knowledge on these things that the Cubs have admired Skubal and their belief is they will be involved. Based on those things we can fully assume they know the general price at that point and they know Boras. I wouldn't bet on it happening, but if I really think about everything, I'm more inclined to believe the first mega contract they would dole out would be a SP regardless of their roster construction and given their roster construction and potential generational type talent on a team-friendly deal? This is the time.