I was just incorrect though. If Philly beats Cleveland tonight on MNF, then we can be eliminated this week if Tampa Bay, Dallas and Philly all win because Dallas and Philly play in Week 17, meaning that Dallas needs to lose so we can have a shot at the Strength of Victory tiebreaker. But Dallas losing would mean Philly wins, and they would then have a 10-5-1 record, clinching a spot over the Bears. That stupid tie sucks, it ruins the ONLY H2H tiebreaker we have over any contending teams. If Philly wins tonight:
5. Dallas 9-5
6. Atlanta 9-5*
7. Tampa Bay 9-5*
8. Philly 8-5-1
9. Chicago 8-6
*-has H2H victory over us
If Philly, Dallas and Tampa Bay all win this week:
5. Dallas 10-5
6. Tampa Bay 10-5*
7. Philly 9-5-1
8. Atlanta 9-6*
9. Chicago 8-6^
*-has H2H victory over us
^-Still has MNF to play
So this leaves Week 17 matchups -
Dallas/Philly, Tampa Bay/Oakland, Atlanta/St. Louis, Chicago/Houston
If Dallas wins, then Philly clinches a better record than us (along with TB who clinched in Week 16)
If Philly wins, then Dallas clinches a better record than us ( " " " ")
So we're eliminated the previous week.