Gilby
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Everything posted by Gilby
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lol, that third person is definitely Blake Parker
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I was going to say the same thing about Starlin breaking out, except he'll be closer to 4.5 fWAR. We go into 2016 with him as the no-doubt shortstop. Baez spends the entire season on the major league roster. After a bad April, he finishes with a 2 fWAR, and has over 200 strikeouts but doesn't break Mark Reynolds' single season K record. Bryant is bad defensively at 3B (but maintains a .350 -.360 wOBA) and moves to LF in mid June for Russell who takes over 3B. Hammel and the 5th starter struggle, so Schwarber gets traded for a TOR pitcher. Cubs win a Wild Card, advance to the NLDS, and get swept by the Nats.
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I'm going to lean ever so slightly towards Bryant because he has the positional edge over Soler and offensive edge over Russell. But man it's close. All three are great. Gun to my head, I'd go 1. Bryant 2. Soler 3. Russell. And I could totally see Russell being our best player in, like, 3 years. It's a toss up.
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Pitchers Jake Arrieta Justin Grimm Jason Hammel Kyle Hendricks Edwin Jackson Jon Lester Jason Motte Neil Ramirez Hector Rondon Pedro Strop Jacob Turner Tsuyoshi Wada Catchers Miguel Montero David Ross Infielders Arismendy Alcantara Javier Baez Starlin Castro Tommy La Stella Mike Olt Anthony Rizzo Outfielders Chris Coghlan Chris Denorfia Dexter Fowler Jorge Soler Ryan Sweeney -I do think Baez is in as long as he doesn't have a terrible spring -Wood and Castillo get traded -Doubront either gets DFA'd or comes down with a fake injury at the end of spring
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2015-16 International Free Agency Thread
Gilby replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Gleyber is pretty cool in his own right, so I won't lose much sleep knowing we have him and missed an opportunity to take part in a bidding war with big time spenders. -
Random Cubs Musings: Minor League Edition
Gilby replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
What kind of slash line are you projecting for Bryant next year? -
Not much of a college sports fan, but I was pretty stunned to see on Deadspin that Fowler signed a $35 million contract. I had no idea those guys make that much.
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Fangraphs/BP/BA Cubs Top Prospects List
Gilby replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Wow, Law's writeup on Bryant makes me giddy. According to the CCO, he mentioned a balanced, short swing (something I've never heard before about him), 400 obp potential (meaning he thinks Bryant can hit for some sort of average), and an MVP candidate in the not-too-distant future. Please be right. -
javi baez deep concern and probably giving hope up thread
Gilby replied to treebird's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's 2015; a ~.330 OBP isn't low. -
Given everything we know (the attempt to change his approach, how he's performed every other season, etc.), I think we can say with a lot of confidence the 2013 version of Starlin won't appear again during his current contract.
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I don't think this really makes us better. On the other hand, trading infielders not named Starlin Castro makes it more likely he sticks around for the long haul. Yay.
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In Muskat's article, he also said he got drunk and celebrated after learning of the trade. That and his twitter stuff, it's hilarious how excited he is to be Cub.
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lol, even Towers wouldn't have said that.
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The A's could use Castillo now.
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I think Martinez is better than any player Theo would be willing to give up for Price, except maybe Javy, but it's likely that Martinez has more value.
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Martinez + one of those outfielders wouldn't be good enough for Hamels, I wouldn't think. That package could maybe get it done for Price though, especially if Detroit wants to re-sign Scherzer.
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javi baez deep concern and probably giving hope up thread
Gilby replied to treebird's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I guess that contact% seems reasonable given the K%, but where are you finding pitch-by-pitch data for that league? -
Fangraphs/BP/BA Cubs Top Prospects List
Gilby replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Thought this was interesting. Maybe Manuel and others aren't paying much attention to contact rates and such, but it's clearly not just Cubs fans who are plugging their ears and looking the other direction when it comes to the K's. -
I think Wood still makes a lot of sense on this roster after getting rid of Wright. Lefties have a .276 wOBA against Wood in his career, compared to .330 wOBA against Doubront. I think Felix gets DFA'd along with Jaxon before the season. I'd like to see Wada in the 5th spot with Wood and Turner in the bullpen.
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Ender Inciarte of the DBacks could be an interesting return for Castillo. If you believe he really is the elite defender he showed last year, he's not all that different from Leonys Martin, and I'd imagine Castillo alone could get it done considering AZ is in dire need of a catcher and has other outfield options.
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Castillo + McKinney for Leonys Martin. Fair?
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I don't mind it I guess, as long as he's not thrown into high leverage situations right away. I'm guessing Motte just took Rivero's spot on the opening day roster. I'd probably rather see Rivero, but whatever, I'm sure he'll still get plenty of time with the big league club.
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How in the world is Valbuena valuable enough to be traded for Fister straight up? Wasn't Fister worth like 5 wins last year in ~25 starts? No, he was under 2 last year. Steamer projects them to be very similar next year, and Valbuena would fit perfectly with the Nats.
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If we're still looking for a pitcher, what would you guys think of a straight up swap of Valbuena for Fister? The Nats could use a second baseman, so the needs match up here. I don't really want to trade Valbuena, but if he isn't in the long term plans anyway, his value will never be higher than it is now (probably). Luis is under control for two more years compared to Fister's one, but that's evened out by Fister being the better player over the past 2-3 seasons. For me, the biggest downside is likely having to put Bryant on the opening day roster after trading Valbuena. Theo/Jed could use the reason of sending him to Iowa to work on outfield defense if we still had Valbuena (still BS, but more believable), but if third base is WIDE open, no excuse will fly. Thoughts?
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If they demanded say Rizzo and Russell would you even turn that down? I'd try *really* hard to get them to ask for something else because it's awfully late in the year to be finding another 1b. But the value doesn't bother me. Rizzo was better than him last year, and Steamer projects Rizzo to be the better player for 2015. There's a lot I'd give up for Harper, but giving up Rizzo and arguably the top prospect in baseball, or arguably the top two prospects in baseball, is kind of crazy. He hasn't turned into Trout yet.