Last year, they also went a total of 23-0 against their conference and had the longest winning streak in the country going into the tournament, just to get a 10 seed. Neither of those two will happen this year. It's the equivalent of saying "If Davidson wins out, they're a lock". Well, obviously. Any team fits that criteria. Right now, though, they're not a likely tournament team, let alone a lock. They have an RPI of 50 this year as opposed to 35 last year. They'd have still been within at-large range with 1 conference loss last year. This year, I'm saying they won't add more than 1 more, and have wins over actual teams to cushion that blow. What's the difference between losing to College of Charleston this year and Western Michigan last year? Not a whole hell of a lot.