Northside Blues

Because it would be viewed as such. Agree with it or not, that is one of the reasons it just wouldn't be done. Hell, Jeter wasn't even moved for freaking ARod. An established young (hopefully) all-star SS just isn't likely to be moved for a rookie, no matter how good. And because it would make him a lot less valuable. Give me a DeRosa type at 2B who can hit and isn't necessarily a great fielder and leave Starlin at SS. http://www.flockaball.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/300px-MichaelYoungField1.jpg

That's a poor way to judge offense. The difference between Pujols, Votto and Fielder versus Pena is a lot larger than the difference between say Castro and Renteria. I'd also take Berkman over Fukudome and Colvin this season. I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that Garza is the Cubs best starter either or that Greinke is better than Carpenter.

He was three singles away from having those numbers last season.

It's not asinine if you don't think he will have huge value as a starter.

ballpark estimates. Lineup 1. Kosuke Fukudome, RF (.270/.375/.450/.825) 2. Starlin Castro, SS (.290/.340/.400/.740) 3. Aramis Ramirez, 3B (.290/.350/.525/.875) 4. Carlos Pena, 1B (.240/.350/.500/.850) 5. Geovany Soto, C (.275/.375/.475/.850) 6. Alfonso Soriano, LF (.260/.320/.500/.820) 7. Marlon Byrd, CF (.290/.340/.440/.780) 8. Blake DeWitt, 2B (.270/.330/.400/.730) 9. Koyie Hill, C (Crap/Crap/Crap/Crap+Crap) 10. Tyler Colvin, 1B/OF (.260/.310/.480/.790) 11. Jeff Baker, 2B/3B (.270/.330/.420/.750) 12. Darwin Barney, MI (Crap/Crap/Crap/Crap+Crap) 13a. Fernando Perez, OF?? (Crap/Crap/Crap/Crap+Crap) Bullish on Soriano, Ramirez and DeWitt. The lineup doesn't seem to have a lot of stars, but it's very deep lineup 1-8. Don't know if we're going to have a 12 or 13 man pitching staff. Judging from the fact that right now we only have fourteen position players on the forty man, with two open slots, we could sign a guy. Perez and Castillo were the only choices. So for now I'll have 13a and 13b. Bullpen 13b. Jeff Samardzija 14. Carlos Silva 15. James Russell 16. Andrew Cashner 17. John Grabow 18. Sean Marshall 19. Kerry Wood 20. Carlos Marmol Rotation 21. Carlos Zambrano 22. Ryan Dempster 23. Matt Garza 24. Randy Wells 25. Tom Gorzelanny

Cashner is probably a non-factor in the rotation this year. Stuff's there command won't. While going through the growing pains is something every young pitcher must go through before becoming a factor, I really wouldn't expect anything more than a 5.00 RA from him this year if he was an SP. Anything else would be a bonus. To me, he seems like a guy who would need a good 100-150 pro SP innings before he'd be a difference maker. Long term it'd probably be better if he was in the rotation this year. I think him and Silva are fairly useless. I think Wells and Gorzelanny have use in them. I do think Garza is a considerable upgrade over Cashner and Silva, as is. If he adjusts to the NL and improves, he's a huge upgrade over them. He's probably, as is, a 4.20 NL RA guy. I'd peg Silva and Cashner close to 5.00. I'd peg Gorzelanny and Wells close to 4.50. Over 200 innings and 32 starts, he'd be about 2 wins better than Silva and Cashner. He'd be a little under a win better than Gorzelanny and Wells. Of course, his ceiling is a lot higher. I don't think anyone would be surprised if he had an ERA closer to 3 than 4. Two wins when you're looking like an 82 or 83 win team is a lot. The Cubs are right where each individual win means a lot. I think the Cubs would be best going with: Rotation: Garza Wells Gorzelanny Zambrano Dempster Bullpen Marmol Wood Marshall Cashner Grabow Guzman/Filler/Trash Our bullpen would be above average. Our rotation would be above average. And if we'd be above average on offense I think. I don't think we'd be well above average anywhere, except the back end of our rotation and bullpen.

I think this move (coupled with the others) should put us in the 84-85 win range, giving us a fair shot at 90 and the division. Maybe 1 in 5 chance of winning the central and another 1 in 10 chance or so of winning the WC. Maybe a 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 chance of making the post season. Without Garza we'd probably be a 1 in 10 chance of the division and a 1 in 20 chance of winning the WC. So basically a 1 in 10 chance of making the post season. So if you consider this move as taking our post season liklihood of 10% to 30%, youve gotta like it. It would take or WS chance from like 1 in 100 to around 1 in 25.

I don't know. It goes both ways. If you trust his scouting eye on Garza, then you've gotta trust his scouting eye on say, Archer.

I'm not surprised. From a pure scouting standpoint, there's no reason that Matt Garza can't be that. He's got a power four seam fastball that sits comfortably 93-95 and tops out 97-98. He's also got a quality two seam in the low 90s. He's got a quality hard slider and serviceable curves and changes. While his performance to date pegs him as a #3 guy, in the NL with some more development (he was only 26 last year), it's not inconceivable that he can't become a top 30 pitcher. You watch him pitch and you certainly see why scouts and Hendry would think that. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. I'm just saying I see where he comes from. The last couple of times I remember him pulling one out of his arse like that were Mark DeRosa and Michael Barrett. Here's to hoping it turns out like those did. Matt Clement was another guy who he got and developed. Hendry's pretty good at targeting guys who haven't played up to their "scouting" ability and watched them mature into it. It's one of his saving graces as a GM.

Rosscup appears to be a soft tossing lefty. Lovely.

san diego wont be any good this year.

8th ranked system in baseball BA is gospel now that they've said something good about the Cubs. I grant that I'm not that up on the minor leagues, but your No. 1 prospect is a guy who isn't striking out at a K/inning pace, your No. 10 prospect is a Guy(er) who just had his first really good season as a 24-year-old at AA. I find the 8th place in baseball thing skepticism-inducing. Archer's career K/9 is 9.1 and is at 9.6 since being traded to the Cubs.

Is the trade really more than Chris Archer and a backup AAA level catcher, a potential Jason Bartlett who hasn't played above lo A, and a potential fourth outfielder? After Archer, and a certain extent Lee, the other two guys are filler. You have to give up something of value to get something of value. Thats one way to spin it. I think Lee is gonna be a bit better than Bartlett - but even if he turns out to ONLY be Bartlett - that's still a very valuable piece. 6 team-controlled years of a starting SS with a good glove has a lot of value. Agreed, but it's a bit redundant with Castro. Since they both can probably stick at short, we're probably better off trading one of them rather than letting one slide to second (or third), since their value will drop.

Is the trade really more than Chris Archer and a backup AAA level catcher, a potential Jason Bartlett who hasn't played above lo A, and a potential fourth outfielder? After Archer, and a certain extent Lee, the other two guys are filler. You have to give up something of value to get something of value.

Lame

So, should Jocketty get credit for a high Win/$$ this year? Because of Joey Votto's value? His ass got lucky.

Wins/dollars is a terrible way to evaluate a GM. You never know who the guy actually targets, if a player he coveted for various reasons had a bigger desire to play elsewhere. Things like that. Of course a team with a big payroll that has sat around 500 during a GMs tenure is going to be near the bottom in wins per dollar (which is still, and has always been a terrible way to think of players "value"). All it says is that we have had a poor ability to develop our own talent to go with the money he has spent. It's not as if he is trading away our young talents, it's that we simply haven't done that much. Jim Hendry hasn't been any worse than Theo Epstein on FA/Extension's (Julio Lugo), Billy Beane (Eric Chavez), and you can go on. The difference is that Epstein's farm system has been fairly productive (thanks to more $$$), and all the other "good" GMs with a high wins per dollar have all been the beneficiary of successful farm systems (which are usually built in their predecessors tenure). He's average for signing free agents sure the Soriano deal may have been bad, but Ted Lilly was great. He's very good at finding castoffs that actually do well. Michael Barrett, Tom Gorzelanny, Ryan Dempster, etc. He's always been a solid guy in trades. He's also done relatively well when trading guys for prospects (Archer, Ceda, etc). The only thing that has kept the Cubs from going to the playoffs more often under his tenure has been a system producing one or two impact bats. An Albert Pujols, an Evan Longoria, a Joe Mauer, a Justin Morneau, a Joey Votto, a Prince Fielder, a Ryan Braun, etc. Those are the types of players that create high wins to dollar spent ratios. I'm not sure how much fault Hendry is at not producing one. Typically those players are top five picks, and we've had one top five pick in his tenure and we picked a guy that was a consensus top five pick. You can say Soto is an impact bat, but Soto's only been one in two of the years Hendry's been here - and in one of those years we won more games than any Cub team since World War II.

Jim Hendry, while far from being a top five GM, is also far from being the bottom of a barrel GM. He's what he is, average. He sits comfortably in the 10-20 range of pot'l GMs.

I think they'll be fine on offense, especially if carter plays well. theyll be middle of the pack in the AL in runs, with an above average staff. should be enough to get them 85 Ws minimum. The Angels and Mariners arent going anywhere. The A's actually won 81 games last year and had a pythagorean win total of 85 and they have only improved. The Rangers will probably slip a bit. It's going to be a good race.

The A's will probably still be in contention in July.

He actually said that. My head hurts.

Rickey!

The latter is somewhat justifiable. Strasburg's arm was a ticking time bomb at the time, and it also exploded quickly. Who knows how he'll pitch when he gets back. One could argue that Strasburg's durability is unknown and/or is going to be poor, thus a trade for someone who has made 30 starts every year since 2003 while being extremely effective is a solid move. There's a high probability that Strasburg will be as good as Oswalt is. That being said, factoring in contracts and the fast washington is a couple years away, i wouldnt pull the trigger. i just dont think it's a completely insane deal.

you gotta love guys who legitimately take discounts to play where they want to play - even if they already made millions.

No Thanks