soapy

The numbers say these are upgrades before applying variables. There are a lot of casual observations that can be made. For example, with Lilly, while the observation can be made that he doesn't fit in Wrigley with his pitching style, the observation can also be made that he won't pitch 30% of his games against the Yankees and Red Sox, as has been done for 3 years running. Talk about stacked numbers. With a guy like Lilly, those variables probably cancel out or come close (PECOTA puts a lot of value on Lilly's move to the NL though). So when I made the observation that Lilly is better than Maddux + AAA pitcher, I used straight numbers. That's how I approached it. Straight numbers, variables aside. I can understand that, but I think it's important to consider those variables at some point. Some of these guys are coming off career years they may not be able to repeat (Soriano, DeRosa, Barrett) and some are coming off of terrible seasons and/or injuries (Prior, Miller, Izturis, Lee).

:?: 3-year splits: Huff: .276/.342/.463 Drew: .293/.415/.532 Mabye he has an edge in durability and flexibility, but to say that Huff's numbers blow away Drew's is just a flat out lie. I'd have some interest in Huff, but I'm not sure what kind of deal he's seeking.

That has to be the most positive sounding post I have ever seen from you about the Cubs! :lol: Problem is, Goony is dreaming. The Cubs won't do this. They'll likely trade Jones for little to no return and Church will probably be traded to someone else, leaving Hendry to pay 6m for Lofton. Sorry to burst your bubble. :D :x Sad but true.

I don't think anyone believes this team isn't improved. There is a debate about how much they've improved though. Probably a little, but by how much? Lilly is a real question mark. He could have a lot of trouble being a fly-ball pitcher in the NL central. Possible improvement. It's entirely possible that Miller and Prior will be injured and/or ineffective in 2007. They are both big gambles. Agreed. Probably a moderate improvement with experience. It's an improvement, but IF Soriano reverts back to his 2004-2005 numbers, it's not the impact improvement you are counting on. Is that likely? Maybe not if he's really developed more patience, but I don't that's a given. Clearly Same thing as Soriano. There a decent chance that DeRosa is better, but his 2006 could very well be a fluke. Again, we're hoping that one big year (at age 30?) is a trend and not an aberation. Maybe. Izturis has shown he can be really awful with the bat. I mean like Ronnie Cedeno/Neifi Perez awful. He's also had a lot of injury problems the last two years. So, yeah, this team certainly is better than the 2006 team, IMO. I'm just not sure they are much more then a .500 team. They certainly could be a 90+ win team with some breaks (Prior, Hill, Soriano, DeRosa, Miller, Lilly, young pitchers, Wood). But they could just as easily head south if those things don't break their way.

This really can't be said enough. This is exactly what he should do if Jones' value is really that low. Very true. A Jones/Murton LF platoon, Church/Jones/Theriot in CF, and Soriano with a spot of Jones/Ward in RF could be darn right excellent. Right. I'm not necessarily an advocate for platooning Murton, but that could be a pretty productive OF (and provide some adequate bats off the bench). They don't have to straight platoon Murton/Jones. Jones can get time in all three OF positions.

That's classified information. Yeah. Practices are closed for a reason, buddy.

This really can't be said enough. This is exactly what he should do if Jones' value is really that low.

Really, you don't need to trade Jones in order to pick up someone like Church. Jones can be moved in Spring Training or during the season. There are plenty of PAs to be had between Murton, Jones, Soriano and Church. This reminds of the Beltran situation where everyone speculated that Hendry couldn't/wouldn't sign him until he traded Sosa (obviously this is on a far lesser scale). If there is no deal out there that makes sense, just hold on to Jones. There is absolutely no reason to "dump" him.

I still think he's going after Manny or Cabrera. Throwing a bunch of prospects at the Yankees for Arod doesn't make as much sense to me.

I'm already annoyed with this statement and it's only been two days.

http://www.mlb-rumors.blogspot.com/ If that's true, I'm pretty much going to die from alcohol poisoning tonight.

Please no to this deal. Just keep Jones and tell him to suck it up (unless he's traded for Church).

To be fair, he said Izturis will be in "one of them" (the 2nd or 8th spot). I just hope he chooses the later. As the team is currently constructed, Murton should he 2nd, with the next choice being DeRosa.

Not bad. As stated, he can spell guys in LF, RF and 1B and has some power off the bench.

wow. get well jim.

My preference (out of what seems to be available) is Church. Honestly, I'm starting to warm to the idea of adding Church, and still holding on to Jones. A four-man rotation of Jones, Murton, Church and Soriano sounds good to me (assuming Murton still gets a lot of PAs).

yes yes yes...

yep. SD is looking for major league talent in return, though. Does Prior count? Seriously, offer Prior and some top prospects (Veal? Gallagher? Pie? E. Patterson?). I'm not sure what SD's bullpen looks like right now, but we have plenty to offer in that department as well. If Prior is the centerpiece of the deal, how does that make SD better? If you want Peavy, I'm thinking you have to be prepared to trade someone like DLee. Probably. I'm just grasping at straws. I'm wondering if overwhelming them with prospects, including guys who may be considered "major league talent" might be a way to go. If they thought Prior was healthy, it would be an interesting scenario to offer him and something like Pie (ML ready?) Patterson (ready soon?) Gallagher. Maybe even some sort of package that includes Hill. The Cubs certainly can't afford to weaken their offense, but as was mentioned by others, offer the farm. Peavy is a stud and you can build your rotation around him and Zambrano for years, IMO.

yep. SD is looking for major league talent in return, though. Does Prior count? Seriously, offer Prior and some top prospects (Veal? Gallagher? Pie? E. Patterson?). I'm not sure what SD's bullpen looks like right now, but we have plenty to offer in that department as well.

I don't see any reason why the Dodgers would be interested in Jones. I'd guess it would be bullpen help and/or prospects they'd be seeking. I would think the Cubs would match up nicely if that were the case. Penny is a better option then Meche, IMO (and Lilly, but it's too late for that).

Really? I think Church > Jones (especially if playing CF). Hell, if you can get Church for Marshall and a bullpen arm, I say do it and work out a four man rotation between Murton, Jones, Church and Soriano. Murton would probably not get as many PAs as I'd like to see, but it could be a very productive outfield, even if Murton ends up platooning with Jones.

That may or may not just be Hendry trying to maintain some leverage. I really think they need to move some of these tradable assets in the pen if they are adding Wood and Cotts (and maybe Marmol and/or Miller) down there.

Well if they're going to sign mediocre guys like Meche and Lilly to fill in the back end of the rotation, they might as well trade guys like Marshall.

:wall: It's upsetting to me if they didn't pursue him (extensively). Maybe Schmidt told Hendry he had no interest no matter what, but I find that hard to believe.

Don't you kind of want to see Hendry's "dream team" win 78 games? The part of me that wants Hendry exposed as a poor GM does, but I'm worried that they may setting themselves up for failure beyond 2007, which is what really bothers me.