Agreed. What sure things are there on this team aside from Lee, Ramirez and Zambrano? There are a lot of question marks, IMO. Soriano could regress to his 2004-2005 numbers, DeRosa could very easily (some might even argue that it's likely) regress a great deal from 2006. Izturis is a good bet to be bad, injured or both. Jones' numbers were up from his previous two years in 2006 and could easily come back down. Marquis was obscenely bad last year and Lilly isn't exactly a great fit (pitching style wise) for the NL Central. Prior is a huge question mark and who the hell knows what Miller will provide. you see, here's the thing about the pessimism v. optimism thing. I don't think anyone here is overly optimistic. I do think several are overly pessimistic, and it screams at you with posts like this. with the strengths from last year that carry over it's 'regression regression regression.' with the question marks and bad recent past performances it's 'ain't gonna change.' people who do the rational thing, pick the middle ground, see the question marks but also see the opportunities, account for setbacks and regression and potential for improvement, balance out the PT from last year with what will probably happen this year, compare to the other teams in the division, have reason to be slightly optimistic about this team. what also screams at you is the fact that the same people who poopoo on the various projections that show the Cubs scoring over 800 runs this year come so strongly to the defense of predictions that have the Cubs finishing 5th. I also pointed out in my post (the portion you didn't quote) that there are positives carrying over from last year. I specifically noted Murton, Guzman and the bench. Also, I noted that they should definitely be better than last year. I don't expect the Cubs to finish fifth but I wouldn't say it's completely absurd, as some people are. I don't think it's overly pessimistic. I think there are several question marks, as I noted. Both in the starting rotation and in the everyday lineup.