Especially for the money, Lorenzen's probably the highest ceiling arm on the arm on the FA market outside of like Gausman and Scherzer/Verlander. He's the hardest thrower, best athlete, among the widest pitch mixes, manages contact well, and healthiest...Compare/Contrast to Jon Gray, who's fastball is down a tick from peak velocity, lower between the two by 2 MPH, doesn't haven't a standout secondary (does try 3, the slider's not bad, changeup's terrible), doesn't manage contact well (does get some GBs),and is very mediocre when you asked to throw more than 150 innings anyway, but will get maybe 2-3x the contract on the assumption he'll get better Lorenzen is 30, hasn’t thrown over 80 IP since 2015 and has just over 50 combined the last two years. Never really has gotten any special results. Career ERA/FIP/xFIP all in the 4s (over 5 as a starter with a .360+ wOBA against, k/9 in the 6s, K% around 15% and BB% around 10%) why he’d be expected to be good for ~170 innings as a SP I don’t get. If he has 5 good pitches he certainly hasn’t implemented them in to results as a SP, RP or swing man. Just don’t get why he’s interesting other than he’s a good athlete who can throw hard but never has gotten results. The Reds have also had some of the best pitching infrastructure over the years he’s been there. Moneyball gif but with pitching. If he’s so good at pitching why doesn’t he pitch good?