Cubswin11

Stroman and Hendricks have been top 25 pitchers for like the last 5-6 years. Stroman, Hendricks and Miley project for over 9 WAR combined, Suzuki could be a star and there’s a lot of favorable projections, Madrigal might be the best contact hitter in baseball, the catching duo is probably top 3-5 in MLB, Frank/Wisdom/Ortega/etc might be real things, Nico is an elite defender and may be a good hitter/overall valuable player, Happ is still young enough for a breakout. There is talent on the major league roster. They still might suck, likely will, but there’s talent. You're projecting everything to go right to get to what 85 wins at most. My brain is struggling to compute that you think they will likely suck but have talent. Even the perennial dwellers have talent just not enough, including the Cubs I’m not arguing they will be good, they probably are a 70 something win team. But things could break right and your premise that there’s absolutely no MLB talent is wrong. Especially on the pitching side.

You're disillusioned about the state of the farm? It's a middle of the road farm system right now. It can be a blessing or a curse at the bulk of the talent is at A and lower. The farm system is of a lesser concern than the lack of talent at the majors. If you're going to be rebuild, need a top farm system and a willingness to spend for elite players in their prime. Right now, they don't appear to have either. Stroman and Hendricks have been top 25 pitchers for like the last 5-6 years. Stroman, Hendricks and Miley project for over 9 WAR combined, Suzuki could be a star and there’s a lot of favorable projections, Madrigal might be the best contact hitter in baseball, the catching duo is probably top 3-5 in MLB, Frank/Wisdom/Ortega/etc might be real things, Nico is an elite defender and may be a good hitter/overall valuable player, Happ is still young enough for a breakout. There is talent on the major league roster. They still might suck, likely will, but there’s talent.

I’d be pretty surprised if we don’t have a top 10 system post draft when they do the mid season rankings. Between whatever we add there along with the guys we currently have growing. Yes, some (most) guys will fail or stall out but there’s enough there that some guys really pop.

ZiPS says around 80: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jonathan-villar-joins-the-cubs-as-their-newest-jack-of-all-trades/ What are they going to do in July if they are hovering around .500 and are 8 games behind the Brewers/Cards and 3 games out of the Wild Card? It's more a rhetorical question, but does anyone think they sell farm hands to maybe squeak into the Wild Card? Isn't it much more likely they sell? If they’re in that spot in July it may depend on what Davis and some of the other young guys are looking like. Like if Davis, Velasquez, Kilian, etc all look ready (or are already up and contributing) maybe they do at least some small buying along with having them up.

I mean we just signed a very high profile guy in Suzuki and by all accounts our pitch to him was great and we also got Stroman, who had plenty of suitors. I still trust they can get a guy they desire to target. But yeah, I’m kinda good with shopping/not extending Contreras unless the extension is on the teams terms. The injury risk/wear and tear with aging catchers aren’t low and Contreras hasn’t even stayed all that healthy as a younger guy. I’d love to keep him but get not extending him at this moment if it’s not on the right terms. I don't understand this thinking at all unless you think Amaya is going to be ready to step in next year or the year after. MLB catching is a black hole of suck and Contreras is already here. It doesn’t necessarily need to be because of Amaya, who at this point idk how much they can depend on him. But they have Gomes for the next two years and he basically matched Willy in WAR last year. They could find a vet/platoon option for Gomes (Jason Castro, Barnhart are FA for example) if Willy leaves or is traded and probably match or exceed his production vs committing big years and money to Contreras at a position that has a lot of volatility/attrition. As I said, I’m kinda fine only keeping Contreras on our terms and feel you can match his production for less money/risk through FA/trade and use the money/resources elsewhere. And if they do extend Willy I’d hope they start using him at DH/1B or even some LF a lot more since the value is in the bat and it keeps him healthier/fresher.

I mean we just signed a very high profile guy in Suzuki and by all accounts our pitch to him was great and we also got Stroman, who had plenty of suitors. I still trust they can get a guy they desire to target. But yeah, I’m kinda good with shopping/not extending Contreras unless the extension is on the teams terms. The injury risk/wear and tear with aging catchers aren’t low and Contreras hasn’t even stayed all that healthy as a younger guy. I’d love to keep him but get not extending him at this moment if it’s not on the right terms.

Haven’t we gotten over the concept of a Coors effect or is there a certain type of hitter that does not translate to playing for a team at sea level. We’ve seen several players now leave the Rockies and not see any sort of dramatic drop off in their numbers. Yeah I'd hope the Coors thing is mostly just fans and old school writers at this point. Going back to at least Matt Holliday every star who's left Coors has still been a star post Coors. Arenando has seen a decent dip. With Cardinals: .250/.310/.480 105 wRC+ With Rockies: .295/.351/.546 120 wRC+

That swing/stance looks a ton like Jason Werth. And honestly that might not be a bad overall comps for Davis’s profile.

I get why we wouldn’t do this specific Correa deal, like we still should’ve but I could see wanting him here for at least 2-3 years before an opt out as an anchor for the next core. I don’t get why we wouldn’t have done a 6-8+ year deal with the opt outs tho, which you’d think he would’ve taken to have the fall back of more guaranteed money.

Suzuki looks like a good solid ML player, but I think we ought to hold off on the Mike Trout comparisons for 2-3 years. The Trout and A-Rod comps can be saved for Brennan and Hernandez

The bullpen is going to be good

With how they’re constructing the pitching, I wonder if they’re looking at using a 6-man rotation or doing some opener/piggy back stuff.

If this is the team, what is the point in trading for Hosmer? Essentially buying a prospect(s). It’s not really even about Hosmer. It’s bailing out the Padres.

While this shouldn’t stand in the way of Correa, as has been mentioned the whole infield is second division starters, there still is a roster crunch. So I wonder if we end up doing the Hosmer trade if some combo of Wisdom/Nico/Madrigal/Rivas/Ortega/Happ/Alcantara is involved since Tatis and Cronenworth are banged up and that free’s up a spot for Correa.

Don’t hate it, don’t love it. He’s a weird player that has some really nice seasons and really bad seasons over the last 5 years.

The Guggenheim Group is also in a different stratosphere of wealth/resources. No, they are not. Yes, they are. They roughly purchased the Dodgers IN CASH for what the Ricketts family is worth. This isn’t apologizing for the Ricketts but The Guggenheim Group blows them away.

They Dodger’s owners aren’t busy leveraging the Dodgers to buy and develop property around Dodger Stadium and partnering with other shady oligarchs to buy soccer teams in England. The Guggenheim Group is also in a different stratosphere of wealth/resources.

Profar and Hosmer, take on all or most of their salaries and throw in something like Happ/Ortega/etc if they want some MLB talent and then raid their prospects. Profar is a nice fit as a guy who can play everywhere and gives you a lefty bat as well.

Yeah, Kris seems to be all about his family and digging his life, then also playing some baseball. Good for him. I’d likely do do the same, honestly. But I’m also glad the Cubs didn’t sign him long term. Oh I don’t blame him at all. Good for him getting paid. Maybe he figures he can sign the contract, play there for a year or two and then get unloaded to a team that actually wants to win. Las Vegas expansion team in 2025

I doubt they would’ve signed Schwarbs and KB

Good for KB, I wonder if we ever made him an offer this offseason. Interesting that KB ended up with a contract in the range of what we likely offered as extensions when those talks went down.

Robertson is a good get, like it a lot. Would like one more reliever, Archie Bradley is a FA and has always intrigued me. I like we’re going volume approach in FA for the pen along with quite a few internal options. Jed/Theo have always built good bullpens here, I’m willing to give them the benefit Jed will build a top 10ish bullpen in the league even if the options look questionable/weak.

Didn’t know Lowrie was coming off a broken wrist, pass then. Moran has had an OPS vs RHP between .760-.850 every year since 2018. I think there’s a decent guarantee he gives you a good OPS/splits vs RHP this year, he’s only 29. He’s not anything special but he helps.