Cubswin11

So we made an offer, a good one allegedly, but he was never told about it? Don’t the agents have a duty to present all offers?

I think Boras and the Cubs are good with each other. Certainly he tries to get the best for his clients and he sometimes will offer a lot of public rhetoric, but that is posturing and I don’t think he’d keep a guy from signing with the Cubs. But when Correa changed agents it was reported that Boras would have to split the commission with the previous agent. When he signed essentially a one year deal speculation was that Boras was happy about that because he’d only have to split this year and then get all of the future deal. Whether that was a factor, I don’t know. I guess I don't understand why Correa would be down for that. I don't know what the Cubs offer was so maybe it wasn't the type of numbers we were talking about, but it seems like there's more chance for his value to go down after this year than go up. Some players just like betting on themselves though The FA market is absolutely terrible next year in terms of 9 figure guys. Short of a catastrophic injury Correa is going to be the best position player FA and only sub 30 one. Home and Trea Turner (30/31 years old) might be the only 9 figure FA next year. He’ll get the mega deal again and it had to be something clearly Boras guided him on/sold him on to go this route. I’m sure he got some assurances/maybe some under the table agreement with Boras to take care of him if he blows out, plus I’m sure he has a massive insurance policy on himself.

I can somewhat buy it with the alleged agent stuff that Boras drove him to a 1 year deal so next year he can do a mega deal and get the full commission. I also kinda get why we wouldn’t want to do a 1 year deal, essentially and wanted him to commit at least 3 years here before an opt out.

C - W. Contreras - $75 1B - V. Guerrero Jr - $200 2B - O. Albies - $100 3B - M. Machado - $75 SS - T. Turner - $75 LF - J. Soto - $75 CF - K. Bryant - $75 RF - B. Harper - $150 DH - K. Schwarber $100

Have loved Niemann forever, hit him at Riviera/Genesis earlier this year. Seems like a guy who will do well at Augusta over his career, he has the game to at least pop a bunch of top 10s over the next decade if not outright win. Woodland seems good value too and DJ seems to be lurking/peaking too at a spot he’s always performed well. Brooks seems to be doing the same too. Henley seems too popular as a long shot but like him as well for some T20-30s and sprinkle for a win, the ball striking is off the charts (still pissed at him for not cashing the win for me at The Sony in January when Hideki chased him down). It’s a bet that won’t likely cash but kinda like a Cam Young sprinkle as well, flashed at Riv/Genesis and it’s a correlated course.

Roberts reportedly sat 93 last year. If he's sitting 95 now that levels up his ceiling considerably. In terms of stuff you're looking at a profile like Ryan Pressly, a legitimate 1st division closer. He also started throwing a slider this year and was taught it by the Yankees pitching guy we hired away, Moskos or something like that. Seems like there’s potentially a slider revolution coming, lots of guys allegedly picking one up this offseason.

I think that's a pretty horrible bet, myself. That's the same odds to win as Shane Lowry and Sam Burns. SAM BURNS! You could get +5500 on Conners, Fitzpatrick, Adam Scott, and Tyrell Hatton. +6000 on Paul Casey and Tony Finau. All of them are MUCH more likely to win, imho. Yeah I’d take all those guys over Tiger, who should be over 100/1. I want to like Burns this week, his game should play at Augusta but he’s a debutant and a first timer hasn’t won since the 70s or 80s. Augusta takes time to learn all the intricacies. I’m definitely going on Scott, Hatton and Lowry though to win and top 20-40s depending on the odds there. Also looking at any ways to fade the horsefeathers out of Bryson this week. His form is horsefeathers, he has poor history at Augusta and he has a wrist injury, back injury and a torn labrum in his hip.

Eric Sogard’s wRC+ was ~40% higher than Shogo’s last year. Sogard’s wRC+ was sub 60.

It says a lot about how down his stock is that with our needs for LH offense and CF coverage this is still a hard pass Yeah, he was so bad last year. 44 wRC+, plus he’s 33/34 and the defense isn’t special. 2020 he at least got on base but hit for absolutely no power and had a low BA.

Never trade with the Rays

The point was it seems like a lot of people seem to think what Hendricks was over those final ~50 innings is what he was all year and completely sucked, which just isn't true and what he now is for sure moving forward. He was his normal, good, Kyle Hendricks for a large chunk of the season and he was his good normal self in the most recent 3 seasons. Maybe he does just suck now and those final 50 innings is what he is, but with the sell off last year maybe he just wasn't as engaged the final 2 months, maybe he was dealing with an injury, maybe fatigue set in after the shortened season, those things could be causes too and he's not permanently bad now. I can't say I've looked at a ton of projections other than Zips and they have him close to 3 and Hendricks has always been a guy who outperforms projections. I just don't think we can be any more certain he definitely is bad now and barely a 1 WAR pitcher just as much as I can't be certain he's a 3+WAR pitcher anymore. I think there's data, evidence and reason to think either outcome is as likely as the other, I prefer to try and find positives and be optimistic about him. He also should have a much better defense behind him this year. Me and you are usually on the same page, but this is just bad analysis. Hendricks wasn’t some sort of sort of 3.00 robot before last year, he had good stretches and bad stretches that totaled up to a good overall pitcher. In 2021 he had bad stetches at the end of the year, and april which you keep ignoring, and he had a 3ish month stretch where he pitched to generally his career average. That is a clear movement in his variability. I’m sure he’ll have a stretch of 3.00 ERA performance this year too. And if he does that for 3 months and sucks the other 3, he’ll be considered a bad pitcher. I’d say he was pretty darn close to a 3.000 Robot before last year. Sure there’s always in season variance and good/bad stretches (every pitcher has that), but he was damn consistent. From 2016-2020 his ERA was between 2.1-3.7 every year, only 1 season with a FIP/xFIP over 4 in that stretch (4.20 xFIP in 2019), 4 years over 3, 2 over 4 WAR, 2017 he was at 2.5 but missed time with an injury and 2020 was pitching like a 3-4+ WAR guy over a full year. I get what you’re saying but again, just trying to illustrate not all of last season was bad for him. But yeah with variance, his profile, general pitcher attrition, aging, etc maybe he just is like a 1-2 WAR pitcher now.

Ethan Roberts made the opening day roster. Excited to see what he can do out of the pen, there’s a high level RP potential in him.

Over 50% of his starts and innings he was a sub 3 ERA pitcher, he wasn’t bad the whole year was my point and maybe he’s more that May-July pitcher than the final ~50 IP from August-September that were a disaster. They played baseball in April too. Like, if you want me to set aside the numbers and try and buy into some whole 'once the team fell apart he stopped trying, but he's the most clutch pitcher in Cubs history and should go down as the best pitcher of the good Cubs era and therefore I have faith if we're good he'll be nails again'....I'd love it. But if this is levelheaded analysis, looking at his body of work and the projections done by people a lot smarter than us, expecting 3 wins is just not accurate. The point was it seems like a lot of people seem to think what Hendricks was over those final ~50 innings is what he was all year and completely sucked, which just isn't true and what he now is for sure moving forward. He was his normal, good, Kyle Hendricks for a large chunk of the season and he was his good normal self in the most recent 3 seasons. Maybe he does just suck now and those final 50 innings is what he is, but with the sell off last year maybe he just wasn't as engaged the final 2 months, maybe he was dealing with an injury, maybe fatigue set in after the shortened season, those things could be causes too and he's not permanently bad now. I can't say I've looked at a ton of projections other than Zips and they have him close to 3 and Hendricks has always been a guy who outperforms projections. I just don't think we can be any more certain he definitely is bad now and barely a 1 WAR pitcher just as much as I can't be certain he's a 3+WAR pitcher anymore. I think there's data, evidence and reason to think either outcome is as likely as the other, I prefer to try and find positives and be optimistic about him. He also should have a much better defense behind him this year.

He wasn’t good last year overall but his May-July was plenty good though (17GS, 106IP, 2.89 ERA, 3.89 FIP) his final ~50 innings from August-September were a disaster though and obviously most recent. Also the 2020 season he was really good and a top 20 pitcher in MLB pitching at over a 4 WAR rate (1.9 in ~80IP), 2019 he had over 4 WAR, 2018 over 3. Maybe those final ~50 innings mean more and it’s indicative of him starting to suck but there’s a lot of other data points recently that show he’s still plenty good. I mean, come on. He wasn’t good last year overall Over 50% of his starts and innings he was a sub 3 ERA pitcher, he wasn’t bad the whole year was my point and maybe he’s more that May-July pitcher than the final ~50 IP from August-September that were a disaster.

He wasn’t good last year overall but his May-July was plenty good though (17GS, 106IP, 2.89 ERA, 3.89 FIP) his final ~50 innings from August-September were a disaster though and obviously most recent. Also the 2020 season he was really good and a top 20 pitcher in MLB pitching at over a 4 WAR rate (1.9 in ~80IP), 2019 he had over 4 WAR, 2018 over 3. Maybe those final ~50 innings mean more and it’s indicative of him starting to suck but there’s a lot of other data points recently that show he’s still plenty good.

Setting aside the 6+ WAR prediction for Stroman/Hendricks (which I'm skeptical amount), the issue with the Miley/Smyly/Mills predictions is that the only way they put up that kind of production is just through volume. Their whole skill set is just 'mediocre when healthy'. There's almost no chance that one of them pops into some sort of top 30 starter in the league. And yes, I know Miley had his best year in 9 years last year and ended up at #30 for fWAR, but he's already hurt. To TTs point, sure, a couple of Hendricks/name your offensive dude might pop up to 3 WARish, and by June you might figure out which guys are 1.5 win guys and which guys are terrible, but I don't see any 4.5+ guys. If you could run the numbers and strip out the worthless players and throw a roster of 80% 1.5 guys and 20% 3-3.5 guys, great, that would be boringly effective in a crappy division. But you can't, and we'll basically just be doing the bullpen experiment everyone loves where by the end of the season we have terrible overall numbers but we've 'finally found a good mix'....but with the whole roster. Stroman and Hendricks combined have averaged below 4 WAR the last three years. ??? 21: 4.7 combined 20: Stroman sat out due to COVID and didn’t pitch but Hendricks put up 1.9 in ~80 innings so pitching at a 4 win pace himself in the shortened year 19: 8 combined 18: 4.8 combined 17: 5.9 combined 16: 7.5 combined

That catching tanking seems really light. Contreras/Gomes combined for almost 4 WAR last year which would be too 3-5 at the position. Zips projects them for 3.6 WAR, it’s a top 4-7 catching set up in MLB, imo and should be good for 3.5-4.5 WAR or so on a reasonable projection with a little more ceiling potential.

I don’t think it’s “really, really bad.” Hendricks and Stroman should combine for 6+ WAR, he’s hurt but once Miley is healthy he’s probably good for 1-2 WAR, Mills/Smyly probably add another 1-2 WAR, then if we can get anything out of one of the young guys (Keegan, Kilian, Steele, etc) it’s a decent enough rotation. Not super high end/ceiling but there’s enough there for it to be middle of the pack like ~10 WAR 15thish in the league. Nothing to be excited about and they should’ve done more but I can see the rotation being decent enough and I have faith the bullpen will be plenty good.

I’ll be interested to see if he can drive the ball straight or if he tries to hit them with too much speed and they just go all over the course. Allegedly his ball/swing speed is in line with where it was prior to the accident. And Augusta is a course you really can spray it and not have to be overly accurate and can still do well. I just hope he makes the cut and gives us like a T30.

It’s absolutely insane he’s playing this week.

Would they have Cano playing 2B then? I have a hard time seeing them trading Smith and McNeil at once, even if a Happ/Ortega was coming back. But I'm also lukewarm on McNeil, he turns 30 next week and while I get the buy low possibility and several years of control, it's the type of profile I think you try to grow rather than paying 10 million/year (including the portion of Hosmer) for in a trade. Cano, Gulliorme or Eduardo Escobar at 2B and then Escobar/Davis at 3B. In theory we could be sending out Wisdom, Alcantara or Happ (who maybe can play some IF) in any trade as well.