CubsWin

I like this contract for Jon Jay. He adequately fills the biggest need they had. Given the depth and all around lack of holes on their existing 40-man roster, the Cubs are in a position to go for upside with their acquisitions this winter. Given the medicals check out to their liking, I'd love the Cubs to sign Greg Holland on the rebound (assuming his price doesn't get ridiculous), sign Eovaldi on a low risk/high reward deal and let him rehab at the Under Armour Performance Center in Mesa (one of the best in the league), and a veteran reliever (Blevins would be great, but I wouldn't be upset if they brought back Travis Wood). Then there's this elusive trade for a young starter with upside. It doesn't need to get done now. There's a school of thought that next off season would be better given the number of high quality starters that will be FAs going into 2018. The more options a team has the better their bargaining position. But if it does happen this year, I'd like the Cubs to get a AA or AAA starter they like. Certainly, if the offer is something like Soler, Candelario and a minor league pitcher, they won't get a stud prospect, but I trust the Cubs scouts to identify somebody they really like who they're confident can be ready by 2018 and provide depth in AAA this season.

Eovaldi is now officially a free agent after being released by the Yankees on the 28th. The Cubs have one of the best rehab facilities, if not the best, at the Under Armour Performance Center. AZ Phil wrote about the possibility of it being a lure for Eovaldi in either a one-year rehab contract or a longer term deal in the comment section at thecubreporter.com. I sure wouldn't mind the Cubs signing him. Low risk/high reward.

For me, the hit-rate with the Cubs prospects of late is more due to well above average instruction, philosophy (Cubs Way) and scouting. There's a reason why Jason McLeod is so highly sought after. It also has a lot to do with the higher draft picks they've had though we've seen guys like Zastryzny and Contreras really turn things around in their development so there's evidence of instruction/scouting with them, certainly. Baez is another piece of evidence supporting instruction and philosophy. I strongly believe he's not the player he is today under the previous front office. There's more reason than ever to be hopeful for currently under-performing guys like Underwood or Hudson or Steele to turn things around and for top prospects with some doubts like Happ, Clifton, Candelario to continue to progress. Baez and Almora have developed at slower rates than some of their college drafted teammates, but they haven't plateaued at all. The philosophy and instruction continues on at the major league level which is doubly encouraging. Probably due to the decades of following Cubs prospects under several previous regimes, I'd come to believe that the attrition rate for prospects was a hard-and-fast rule, but Jason McLeod and the rest of the scouting and development staff have changed my mind. This group is simply better than most of the rest of the league.

Great to see some new posters in the minor league forum! Yeah, it's good to know there's at least one stud in the system in Jimenez. The big league club is stocked so there's ample time to build the next coming waves. Think of it, the Cubs added Contreras, Edwards, Almora and Zastryzny last season and all performed well. On top of that, they turned Vogelbach and Blackburn into a long term asset in Montgomery. The year before it was Bryant, Russell and Schwarber, and 2014 saw Hendricks, Soler and Baez make their debuts. Come on. That's not fair. It will be a while before there's another 3-4 man wave of talent the likes of those guys, but the cupboard's far from bare. Candelario is knocking on the door but there's simply no room at the inn. If keeps hitting in AAA like he did last year (.333/.417/.542 in about 300 PAs), that 23-year-old, switching-hitting 3B with improved defense (by the latest reports) will make a solid trade chip. Next up would be Zagunis, Happ, Clifton, Caratini and possibly Underwood if he can turn things around and stay healthy. That's not a bad group of prospects in AAA & AA. But it's the high-ceiling guys at the lower levels that will be fun to watch develop in this time of regrouping, as you called it. De La Cruz, Paulino and Eddy Martinez will all be 22 by opening day, but Jimenez, Cease, Paredes, Albertos, Wilson, Hudson, Sepulveda, Moreno, Assad, Palma, Marquez, Ocampo, Carrera, Ademan, Sierra, Amaya, Perlaza, Morel, O. Nunez, Garcia and Narea are all currently 20 years old or younger, in most cases much younger and all worth following. This should be fun...

Fun set up, Tim. Looking forward to see how this week's final list looks.

Man, Theo is one focused mofo. This move was actually done just hours before game 7. http://pinstripedprospects.com/conor-mullee-claimed-off-waivers-by-cubs-17956

Ian Happ now hitting .292/.346/.417 with 3 doubles, 2 walks and 4 Ks in 24 ABs. Eloy is tied for the team lead in HRs (2) despite being the youngest player (by far) on the roster. Duane Underwood is the 2nd youngest pitcher on the Solar Sox. Connor Greene is the only one younger and he's struggled mightily with 8 walks vs. 3 Ks. Though Underwood hasn't done all that well himself. He's fallen way down the rankings, but if Underwood can stay healthy next season, he's got a chance to re-establish himself as at least a reliever in the bigs. It will be fun to track next year.

Per AZ Phil, here's the next batch: Carmelo Alfonzo, OF (VENEZUELA) - L/R - 6'0 177 - Age19 Keiber Arredondo, RHP (VENEZUELA) - R/R - 6'0 178 - Age 19 Jeinser Brete, 3B (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC) - R/R - 6'0 190 - Age 16 Jonathan Bruzual, LHP (VENEZUELA) - L/L - 6'1 172 - Age 16 Kleiber Carreno, RHP (VENEZUELA) - R/R - 6'2 165 - Age 18 Danis Correa, RHP (COLOMBIA) - R/R - 5'11 155 - Age 17 - $225,000 bonus Yovanny Cruz, RHP (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC) - R/R - 6'1 190 - Age 17 Jose Gomez, RHP (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC) - R/R - 6'2 165 - Age 19 Ferrol Heredia, LHP (MEXICO) - L/L - 5'11 200 - Age 17 - $50,000 bonus Vicente, King, SS (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC) - R/R - 5'7 160 - Age 16 Chi-Feng Lee, RHP (TAIWAN) - R/R - 5'11 155 - Age18 - $30,000 bonus Carlos Pacheco, OF (MEXICO) - R/R - 5'11 195 - Age 17 Oswaldo Pina, SS (VENEZUELA) - R/R - 5'10 170 - Age 18 Manuel Rodriguez, RHP (MEXICO) - R/R - 5'11 205 - Age 20 - spent three seasons with Yucatan (Mexican League) - $100K bonus Denmy Sanchez, RHP (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC) - R/R - 6'0 190 - Age 18 Didier Vargas, LHP (PANAMA) - L/L - 6'0 175 - Age 17 Ricardo Verenzuela, OF (VENEZUELA) - L/R - 6'0 175 - Age 16

And not to be outdone, the other half of the 2013 IFA dynamic duo, Gleyber Torres, hit a walk off single to win the game for the Scottsdale Scorpions. Gleyber went 2-for-4 with a single, a double, a walk and no Ks. Eloy also went 2-for-4 with a single, a HR, a walk and no Ks. 3 walks against 1 strikeout for Eloy thus far.

Nice.

So, all told, 9 different Cubs mentioned with 10 rankings (Happ twice) and 11 if you count Torres. Contreras (2) - AAA Almora (12) - AAA Candelario (17) - AAA Happ (9) - AA Happ (10) - A+ Clifton (12) - A+ Jimenez (2) - A Cease (3) - SS A Galindo (10) - SS A Wilson (13) - SS A Pieters (16) - SS A Contreras and Almora will have graduated from this list, but with the 2015 IFA class invading Mesa next season, there could/should be more on this list next year. Perhaps a couple more pitchers make some lists like De La Cruz, Albertos, etc. After all the remarkable graduations and trades, the Cubs still have a decent system.

Thanks, Raisin! Forget what he did in AAA (.353/.442/.593). The numbers he put up in the majors say it all, .282/.357.488 with 14 doubles and 12 HRs in roughly half a season. Moving forward he looks like a 20 HR, high OBP catcher with a very high defensive ceiling behind the plate and positional versatility to boot. There's no doubt, the kid's certainly for real. One would think. This is surprising to hear from BA. I have a hard time seeing this happening, but with his make-up and the adjustments we've seen from Baez under Cubs tutelage, I guess it's possible though not very likely in my book. Wow. There have been mixed reports on his defense, but this one's pretty glowing. His bat should play in the bigs, but if he can provide average or above major league defense at the hot corner, he becomes a lot more viable and, as a result, valuable prospect.

Thanks, Raisin!

Once again, craig, you have crystalized my thoughts.

As important as A ball FIP may be, I was thinking more the 22.3% K rate in a league with a 19.8% K rate. Indeed. There were certainly telling markers with Clifton even when he wasn't performing well. Agreed. Age and age relative to league, heights and weights, etc. are numbers too. Just not performance related. I think we agree expanding beyond performance and putting numbers in context give a more clearer picture. Never advocated "going just scouting at the lower levels", so we agree there, too. The problem is most if not all we get information wise is just the performance stats at those lower levels and the lower the level, the less meaningful they are. Because of the weaker competition, it's difficult to trust when a player performs well at the lower levels just what that means and whether they'll be able to do the same at advanced levels, plus the player is so undeveloped that if they did poorly, it doesn't tell us much there either. That's why I'm with you, good performance is good performance and I'll take it no matter what the level.

I, too, lean more heavily on the stats you talked about. For me, though, the younger the prospect and lower the level, the less meaningful the stats are. The level of competition is so much lower than the upper levels it can be tough to get a read on just what those numbers mean. Plus, the players are often still growing and have so much development left that, if they're not doing great at a young age but have projectability, there's still plenty of time for them to improve. One example is Oscar De La Cruz who was an unheralded IFA signing ($85,000) who got hit around pretty good in his first stint in the DSL. But he was a 6'4" body, certainly projectable and still very young. The next season, repeating in the DSL, he really improved and broke out. Still, I'm with you, I'll take performance over non-performance any day of the week.

If a 3.94 FIP and a 2-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio is performing well, then yes. Probably just semantics, to each their own. For me, Clifton is a prime example of the toolsy, raw prospect who made good (at least thus far). FIPs of 4.31 and 3.94 and BB/9 of 4.43 and 3.89 the previous two seasons aren't all that encouraging in my book. He had a lot to prove, but I was hopeful given the reports. The potential was there with his athleticism and decent velocity. By his own admission, he was a thrower not a pitcher, but that all changed this season. He went from being regarded as a still unproven, raw arm with control problems and questions about his ability to remain a starter in 2015 to pitcher of the year in the Carolina League this year. It was really gratifying to see him come through like that.

Well, he did have vast improvements across the board this season. K% 2015 - 22.3%, 2016 - 26.2% BB% 2015 - 10.2%, 2016 - 8.3% FIP 2015 - 3.94, 2016 - 3.05 HR/9 2015 - 0.58, 2016 - 0.30 K/BB 2015 - 2.19, 2016 - 3.15 ERA 2015 - 3.98, 2016 - 2.72 WHIP 2015 - 1.27, 2016 - 1.16 His BABIP went up 13 points from 2015 (.287 to .300) but his BAA went down from .226 to .219. There were plenty of reasons to be high on him before, but he certainly took a step forward this season and proved a lot of his detractors wrong for the time being.

This is how I've been feeling, too.

Core starters who have been performing well all season are exempt. Prime candidates include Heyward, Montero, Soler, Coghlan, La Stella, Ross, etc. Even though he's done well, I guess a rookie like Edwards shutting guys down in key post season situations could qualify. Who do you think steps up?

Hendricks is scheduled to pitch next on Monday in Pittsburgh. With 6 or more innings without an earned run, his ERA will start with a 1.

Oh, I was under the impression they could. Can you explain why they can't? Thanks.

After reading this, I did a little digging. The following year, Theo did exactly what we're describing selecting Henry Owens in the comp round (36th overall). Joe Musgrove was taken 46th overall in the comp round and pitched fairly well for the Astros this season. Tigers starter Michael Fullmer was taken 44th. Of the 7 pitchers taken in the comp round of 2011, 4 of them have made it to the bigs with 3 of those having decent performances as starters thus far. Each of those 3 (Fullmer, Musgrove and Owens) were drafted out of high school as were the 3 you listed above from 2010. In 2009, 11 pitchers were selected in the comp round, all but one of them from colleges. Only Garret Richards has hit big from that group, but there are a few other interesting names like James Paxton and Tyler Skaggs, who was the only prep arm from that group. Sanchez, Syndergaard and Walker are certainly the exception, but finding a TOR or MOR in the late 1st/comp round can definitely be done.

Speaking of Cubs pitching prospects, 3rd rounder Thomas Hatch was seen throwing at instructs today. [tweet] [/tweet]

I've heaped a lot of praise on the Cubs scouting and development staff over the last several seasons and deservedly so, but it's always been generalized or hitter-centric. I know the Cubs had the highly-touted Derek Johnson (signed away from Vanderbilt) as their minor league pitching co-ordinator for 4 years (2012-15) but the proof never showed up in the pudding. Not saying he necessarily did a bad job. The Cubs didn't draft any pitching in the 1st round, injuries happened, etc. Whether it's instruction or scouting or a combo of both, so far the results aren't there. That said, I'm excited for the future of Cubs pitching prospects and would love to see them add more with high picks in the coming drafts. The Cubs openly stated they'd focus on pitching in this year's draft and followed through taking 13 pitchers in their first 14 picks. I'd like to see them continue this strategy. Not necessarily with 13 out of their 1st 14 picks again, but certainly taking pitchers with their 1st 2 picks and only taking a bat if he's clearly the best player available and too good to pass up.