CubsWin

As it stands right now, the Cubs have the 27th and 30th picks to go along with their 2nd and 3rd round picks, currently 67th and 105th.

So do I.

The high cost of good, young pitching (either in money or prospects) is certainly a cause for concern for the Cubs in the near future (and longer if they continue to struggle to produce high-end arms in-house), but the Eaton trade gives me hope. I've soured a bit on Giolito (I was really high on him before), but he's still very good. If Eaton can bring back that haul, there's hope the Cubs "surplus" of very good, young, inexpensive major league hitting can help with their young talent on the mound. They'd need to find the right team with the right prospects and the right motivation (not always readily available), but Hahn has shown it's possible.

No they don't. But I understand why you would think that. If something summarizes succinctly, it doesn't preclude the existence of other pertinent and valid data. On the other hand, to someone who is existentially argumentative, anything I write can be disagreed with. That's not the contradiction. I rest my case...

These contradict each other. No they don't. But I understand why you would think that. If something summarizes succinctly, it doesn't preclude the existence of other pertinent and valid data. On the other hand, to someone who is existentially argumentative, anything I write can be disagreed with.

Sure, it is also not one anyone would actually cite as a reason to avoid a trade particularly with tons of other less subjective data available. If that's THE go to data point for a guy with nearly 3000 PAs in the minors then something already smells fishy. Sure enough this corner bat's .772 OPS in the minors and bouts with outright unimpressive performance, includng a .690 OPS repeating AA last year. No, Tom, it's not THE go to data point, just one of many. The pitchers you had named were uninspiring to me for lots of reasons. The data point I referred to just summed it up succinctly. It also happened to be a perfectly valid data point that flew in the face of what you believe to be true. I would never dream of trying to convince you of anything otherwise. Your opinion is perfectly valid. I'm simply expressing what I think. I know you disagree and that's more than fine with me.

I can understand not being into them, but the MLB.com OFP is a weird reason. Meh, it's a scouting report done by people with a lot more experience and access than you or me. It's a data point with more validity than what we post here...

Clarke Schmidt and Griffin Canning fit their college pitcher type. Wil Crowe does too but he had TJS in 2015. True. Especially if they want to go better control but slightly lower upside.

LH college starter Seth Romero (25th) and RH prep starter Shane Baz (40th) profile nicely.

That would be to my liking. One college arm and one higher upside prep arm please. Or the best 2 college arms with 2018 fast approaching...

Interesting thoughts,Win. Two thoughts: 1. My guess is that they begin each season with a "plan" for each guy, at least anybody they've have for even a fairly small while. My guess is that they do a bunch of review and analysis after the season, develop a plan, present that or discuss that with the pitcher, and begin the season with that plan. How often they revise it during the season, I don't know. 2. When Derek Johnson came over, he believed that throwing too fast was bad for command, for delivery consistency, and for health. He had pitchers throw sets at different velocities, charted the command results, and then assigned them velocity bands within which to throw their fastball. Often less than what their max-velocity could achieve. So, for example, maybe Tseng could throw 91-92-93, but supposedly he might have a velocity-band assigned at 88-90, if that was where he'd charted as being most consistent with best command. I believe some of those constraints were then removed late in the season or entering playoffs. Not sure whether: 1. Johnson kept that up; 2. Whether it only applied to lower-level guys; 3) How often they re-evaluated and revised the band; 4) How it was enforced if a pitcher over-threw his band; or 5) whether Jim Brower does that or anything similar. Agree, craig. This front office doesn't do anything without a plan. ("The average Rooski doesn't take a dump without plan." Name the movie...) It will be fun to see how they progress. And if Kyle Hendricks as showed us anything, it's that the ability to command a pitch beats higher velocity every time.

They wouldn't. Seem pretty sure of yourself. Been hacking into the Astros computers?

Phillies have Maikel Franco at 3B and Tommy Joseph at 1B (.813 OPS, 25 years old), I don't see them acquiring a young, corner infielder. Those pitchers are pretty uninspiring to me. MLB.com has Candelario rated as a 55 prospect. Both Pivetta and Lively are 45 and I want nothing to do with Appel, at least not as a return for Candelario.

Well, he's a pitcher so he's gonna be overpriced. If I'm gonna pay more than someone is worth, I'd rather have a 27-28 year old starting a 5-year contract than a 31-year-old. That's what makes someone like Duffy attractive as an acquisition. As far as why he might sign an extension, every player has a number in mind. I'm not saying the Cubs would meet it, just saying only make they trade if they can work something out. As far as his WAR, he had a 2.8 fWAR last season in just under 180 innings in 26 starts after starting the year in the pen. It was a breakout season for him. He doesn't have a ton of mileage on his arm (mostly due to injuries which is a concern going forward) but if he can provide 200 IP with the similar percentages (25.7% K rate and 5.8% walk rate plus a BAA of .239 and WHIP of 1.14), that'll work. That said, I don't see a need to go add him right now. But looking to 2018 and beyond, I'd rather spend capital on someone with his upside than AAA depth. Of course, the ideal is to get both. A pitcher coming out of AA (or repeating AAA) with upside who can also provide major league depth in 2017.

I've often wondered that, too. It may be just random or simply true progression, but Ive noticed with several Cubs pitchers, particularly with Paul Blackburn and Dylan Cease while with the NWL affiliate, that some were suddenly far more dominant/effective at the end of the season/playoffs then the middle part of the season. It could be they were working on certain pitches more heavily during the year and then towards the end their coaches say go out there with your best stuff and get them out OR simply that the time developing those pitches paid off and they're just better by the end of the season. What got me wondering was in some cases the improvement was stark and out of nowhere. Though that is how it can happen. Something just clicks. It would make sense in the lower levels to start the season with the pitcher just doing his best to get hitters out. Then identifying what isn't working or what would enhance what the pitcher is already doing and working on that for much of the rest of the season. Then at the end, especially if the team is in the playoff hunt or has made them, take the reigns off and just have him go get guys out without any pitch quotas.

For me, if the Cubs are going to trade a package built around Happ or one built around Candelario, I'd like to get someone with some upside. That's likely going to involve some risk either in the form of someone who's had TJS or someone who is further away from the bigs. I know that doesn't necessarily solve the problem being discussed in this thread, namely depth for the 2017 rotation, but if Zastryzny starts in AAA (which is increasingly likely if the Uehara signing is officially done), I'm not overly worried about AAA depth. If Happ, Zagunis and Underwood can net Newcomb or Allard, great. If Candelario can get Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint or Max Fried, cool. If the cash strapped Royals are worried about losing Danny Duffy for nothing in free agency like they would've with Wade Davis, will they consider Ian Happ plus for Duffy so long as he agrees to a contract extension before the trade is completed? The Royals currently have Whit Merrifield as their 2B and no one close or any good in their minor leagues that plays 2B. (Of course, it's still debatable whether Happ can play there himself). There plenty of other options other than ones I've named, but I'd rather the Cubs spend their player position resources on a pitcher with upside than solid depth for 2017.

Completely agree. It doesn't matter a whole lot where these guys start so long as they're not getting completely rocked. What matters is that they have the proper environment and get the innings to develop. If the Cubs think the coaching in Myrtle Beach is a good fit for Cease and his developing change up (as well as further refinement of his curve and fastball location) then there really isn't anything stopping him from starting there as I think his stuff as it stands now will be good enough at that level. I actually like the idea of Cease being challenged a bit. From what I've heard/read, he's got the maturity and confidence to handle some struggles. Facing better hitters, might clarify what he needs to work on to succeed and speed his development if he's able to make the adjustments in a timely fashion. I see Dylan as the only Cubs pitching prospect with a #1 ceiling. De La Cruz is a #2 or #3. Hatch is a #3. With the Cubs having to make a decision on Arrieta soon, getting as clear a picture of what Cease can be would be helpful.

I know a lot of people want to slot Montgomery into the bullpen given the lack of lefties but I really would like to see Montgomery start so we know what he can bring in 2018. If Montgomery has an important spot in the 2018 rotation, I really don't want to push him to 175+ IP coming off a full season in the bullpen. He'd still be able to pitch in the 2017 playoff bullpen. Yep. Very smart, Raisin. Monty will need to go into 2018 having already built up his IP the previous year, and the Cubs need to know what they have in him as a starter. Plus, with Uehara, the Cubs basically have their "lefty specialist" who can also get righties out. I'm not against bringing in another guy (left-handed or not) who is really tough against lefties, but as it stands now, I'm good with the bullpen the way it is (assuming Uehara officially signs...) Davis Rondon Edwards Strop Uehara Grimm Duensing ...and likely one more given the flexibility and depth the Cubs have amongst their position players. Either sign someone like Blevins or Wood or let Leathersich, Smith, Pena and Rosario battle it out and keep Zastryzny stretched out in Iowa for starter depth since he has options.

It was only 3 games and 9.2 innings, but Zastryzny did see time in Kane County at the end of his first pro season. He pitched well enough in a small sample and then had a good enough spring that he started his 2nd season in High A. I'm with you in that I don't see Hatch starting off in Myrtle Beach primarily because he didn't pitch for the Cubs at all last season. That matters less than how he looks in minor league camp this spring though. However, I can understand the Cubs wanting to fast track Cease. Last season was his first full year post-rehab. Between Eugene and ExST, he threw 67.2 IP (throwing only 24 innings in his rookie season with just 3.2 IP in ExST). He has been incredibly difficult to hit thus far allowing BAA of .145 in 2015 and .175 last year. His K/9 was 13.3 (36.3%) last year, and he dominated the NWL in every way except walks. Control/command is expected to be shaky in the first years after TJS, so I expected him to continue to improve in that area this coming season. As it is, his BB/9 dropped from 6.0 (15.8%) to 5.0 (13.7%) last year. There's a solid argument for either starting in Myrtle Beach or South Bend, but looking at the history of how Jason McLeod has done things in the past, the fact that Hatch hasn't pitched a professional inning yet leads me to believe he's more likely ticketed to start in South Bend (and move quickly if he dominates there), and the fact that Cease is their #1 pitching prospect, has such a high upside and the make-up to handle skipping a level (plus the Cubs need to fill pitching from within in the coming seasons), I can see the Cubs thinking if he were to start in Myrtle Beach.

Per AZ Phil: With the Fowler signing, the Cubs now have a compensatory pick which will wind up likely 36th overall or possibly 37th if a team that has already given up their 1st round pick signs another QO'd FA. With the Cardinals losing their 1st rounder, the Cubs 1st round selection is now 28th. If the remaining 5 QO'd FAs all sign with teams other than their 2016 club and teams drafting outside the top 10, their pick could go as high as 23rd overall.

the Cardinals radio call of the pickoff is my 2nd favorite moment in baseball history. http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v31189779/must-c-conclusion-ueharas-pickoff-makes-sox-winners skip to 1:59 to hear it wow that's good Shannon is absolutely terrible. The only announcer I've ever heard who is worse is Harrelson. And man, that's some beard on Rossy... Wow.

Otani is so far off in the future now that it's not even worth thinking about right now. What is it, 2019? Jeff Passan has been making noise that it could be as early as after the 2017 season.

Seriously down the road but not completed tonight probably means at least one of the teams wants to dig deeper into medicals or do physicals. And with these two guys it could be both teams (Davis's arm and Jorge's hamstring). Or the Royals are buying time for the Nats to improve their offer...

I don't like it either, but it will be easier to swallow if the Cubs get the good, healthy Wade Davis for that one year.

Locke is terrible that's a hard pass on him. As a starter, definitely. He's terrible. The only way the Cubs MIGHT have an interest is if they think his stuff/shortened repertoire plays up as a reliever. If they think it does and the price is right, their shortage of lefty pen arms in the organization might be enough reason to sign him. That said, I hope there are better arms out there than Locke.