CubsWin

Yep....most often a vague, subjective, arbitrary, and way overshot best case perfect world scenario. I mean why/how isn't *everyone's* ceiling an elite if the whole thing is just what would happen if every single thing came together perfectly? IIRC the last guy to become an elite player after playing their final DSL season at 19 is Miguel Tejada nearly 20 years ago. de la Cruz also does not need to become a TOR pitcher to be a success either, so there's also that. Oh boy. Never mind. Be well.

Sure and that doesn't, or shouldn't, get to change the context behind what I said. The discussion was not de la Cruz's pace for an average-ish prospect, but as a guy with TOR potential. Just because one human being as the ability to reach their potential faster than another or gets lucky and has an epiphany at a younger age, doesn't diminish the potential of the guy who gets there at a different pace. Ceiling is ceiling. We've seen that a lot in this sport as well as others. But if you believe differently, that's cool with me.

TOR pitchers aren't most prospects and the conversion was ~5 years ago. Right. I said I didn't consider him a likely TOR. In the first sentence of the post you responded to. I was speaking to using the whole 5 year knock against IFA prospects who are signed at a very young age. I don't think it holds much water. Especially if the guy wasn't a pitcher prior to signing. I'd say, all told, he's done very well considering.

While I agree that De La Cruz is not likely a TOR guy (and by TOR I mean a 1 or a 2), I think the whole 5th year thing being a disqualifying factor or even a mark against an IFA prospect who signed as a 16 or 17-year-old is pretty weak. Oscar was 21 all year and would've had a full season in Low-A if not for the injury. That's right on schedule for most prospects. Plus he was converted to pitcher from SS.

I agree. After Eloy and possibly Cease, it's gets really tough to find someone who profiles as a top-25 prospect currently in the Cubs system. Now, as you talked about, some guy might emerge over time via steady or near perfect development, and someone can always breakout like Contreras, but both of those situations are rare. To be fair, though, they've been less rare under this Cubs scouting and development staff of late. How many times have we seen other teams or previous Cubs FOs fail to develop a top IFA guy (or even a top but raw American-born prospect)? Luis Encarnacion (Phillies), Micker Zapata (White Sox), Michael Ynoa (A's), Adonys Cardona (Blue Jays), Gustavo Cabrera (Giants), Mark Malave (Cubs under Hendry), the list goes on. Much of that has to do with how young these guys are at the time they're signed. It's a very difficult thing to do to identify a baseball prospect at that age, be right about what you saw and successfully develop them into the top prospect you thought they could be. It's easy to whiff on those guys. But that's my point. This Cubs scouting and development staff did it twice with Torres and Jimenez. That's why I found this question so interesting and wanted to hear this community's thoughts on the subject. Given that no one outside of Eloy and possibly Cease have a decent shot at being top 25 someday, but assuming the Cubs have a well above average ability to develop players and have I what I consider to be a deep system at the moment, who might be the next one? I've enjoyed reading people's responses. Albertos is such an unknown but has been written about glowingly by some that he makes sense. Sierra and Ademan are also such unknowns and that won't change until they get seen at some higher levels. Then there's D.J. Wilson or Paredes. I appreciate everyone who's responded with their thoughts.

Agree. All those dudes are worth following. I wonder about Carrera's stuff and how it will play as he moves up. Then again, his stuff could improve as he moves up. All guys with better shots than the "average guy you've never heard of". Gutierrez was a guy I was going to mention but got tired and just pressed 'submit' on the original post. You dug deep!

Just curious. What leads you to believe the Cubs are obvious favorites for Otani? That would be great news! See the Otani thread and don't consider it news, more like a well thought out #hottake Okay, so after reading the thread, all 8 pages of it, here's what you wrote about your reasoning as to why the Cubs are Otani's obvious choice: It seems your reasoning is the Cubs are the obvious favorites because: 1. The Dodgers didn't get him in 2012 because the Cubs "had him reserved". 2. The Cubs are a flagship franchise who've never had a Japanese superstar. 3. The Cubs have a clear need for a young starting pitcher who has versatility and is an international star. 4. The Cubs are historically great right now and have money to spend. I get #4. Who wouldn't want to play for the Cubs right now and they will have a lot of money coming off the books after this season. The rest of it sounds like you believe Otani cares about the needs of his landing spot more than his own or that the choice isn't really his and MLB controls who gets this guy. The assumption being that MLB will see more dollars if he goes to the Cubs so they'll pull the strings to make that happen. Is any of that accurate? I don't want to misinterpret you. Besides that reasoning, you state that it's your assumption and reiterate that it's obvious and inevitable. Am I misunderstanding what you wrote? According the rest of the thread, the latest fact-based reporting is that Otani expects to be posted after this season (with one tweet that he MIGHT wait until after the 2018 NPB season which would be great for the Cubs), and that MLB will not make an exception for Otani in the new CBA. If he gets posted after this season, the Cubs wouldn't be able to spend more than $300,000 on him until July 2, 2018 while other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, etc.) would be able to spend close to $9-10 million. It seems like the best case scenarios for the Cubs are he waits until the 2018 post-season or he just really wants to play for the Cubs, doesn't care about money and wants to get started as soon as possible so he signs for $300,000. Without any real reason to think he will wait until after the 2018 season or knowledge that he wants to only play for the Cubs, I don't see anything that gives the Cubs a good chance of getting him much less makes that the obvious result. But I'm probably not reading this right.

Just curious. What leads you to believe the Cubs are obvious favorites for Otani? That would be great news!

If Rademacher goes from where he's currently at and breaks out, that would be great. He's already pretty good. Preston Morrison had a breakout of sorts last season. If Bloomquist can as well, that draft class would be fairly impressive.

That's true. Morel did get a solid bonus. Let's exclude him and the other big bonus guys.

Eloy already is on some lists. Obvious choices like Happ and Cease shouldn't be included. In your mind, who has the ceiling and the likelihood to reach it amongst the rest? De La Cruz seems like the closest, safest bet at this point. Albertos? Sierra? Ademan? Wilson? Or is there no one currently in the organization that has that kind of potential...

With the discussion of BA's top ten list, it got me thinking. Who are my favorite unheralded Cubs prospects? Someone who isn't generally ranked in the top 30 who you think might emerge in a year or two and have a markedly better shot at contributing at the major league level than they do right now. Probably shouldn't include any of the bigger money and touted 2015 IFA guys as they're a bit obvious. Paredes already surprised last season. Mid-round picks from last season like Hatch and Clark shouldn't be included either. Dig deep! For me I like: C - P.J. Higgins C - Johnny Pereda 1B - Matt Rose 2B - Yeiler Peguero SS - Zack Short SS/3B - Christopher Morel 3B - David Bote OF - Charcer Burks SP - Javier Assad SP - Yunior Perez RP - James Norwood RP - Enrique De Los Rios You don't have to chose one for every position obviously. It's just a slow time for baseball news, so I figured what the horsefeathers. If I had to go with one guy, it would be Higgins.

If he's not available until 2018, that's one big and strong 15 year old...

You know what though, that would make perfect sense if that's who Manuel was referring to. Cubs fans are over the moon about Bryant right now (and why wouldn't they be). If I were Manuel, there's no way I would give Eloy a Bryant comp in an effort to keep expectations (and Cubs fans over-reaction) down to a manageable level.

I was like if he's okay with mentioning Stanton but thinks he should hold back a different name for fear of getting hopes up to high, it's got to be Miggy or somebody like that.

That may have something to do with that he only plays 3B and 1B and the Cubs have 2 perennial MVP contenders in their 20s at those positions. That said, I'm not fully in Candelario's corner. I think we will learn a lot from how consistently he handles AAA this year. You could be right on the cold weather thing. True. While this is system is still plenty deep, the high end talent in full season ball is almost all gone. Wilson and Albertos have the highest ceilings/best tools of the guys that are left after the top 7, and I think that's why they were ranked this highly by BA. They are so far away and unestablished though that they don't match up to other organization's top 10 guys. But I'm more bullish than ever on Cubs prospects (the hitters more so than the pitchers but that might be changing) because of the track record the Cubs developmental and scouting staffs have had under Jason McLeod. The improvement of Baez, Contreras, Vogelbach and Candelario has been remarkable. The scouting side nailed Bryant, Schwarber, gets a passing grade on Happ thus far and deserves a steak dinner just for finding someone with Albertos' arm before anybody else did. Both scouting and development can put feathers in their caps on Torres, Jimenez, Clifton, De La Cruz, Zagunis and Ryan Williams among others. If BA thinks Wilson and Albertos have high ceilings, plus tools and the make-up & athleticism to come close to reaching their ceilings, good. With McLeod's track record, I'll take it. But yeah, one thing you can't do is speed up time to fill the holes left by all the graduations and trades. Until some of Wilson, Albertos, Ademan, Sierra, Hudson, Paredes, Galindo and even college guys like Hatch and Clark establish themselves more fully, the legitimacy of the Cubs top 10 will be pretty thin by comparison.

Agreed on Zagunis and Candelario, but both Wilson and Albertos are gathering quite a following. Albertos especially considering just how little he has thrown and yet I've seen at least 3 different writers refer to his arm and potential as "special". The day Albertos' signing was announced I did some digging and found a Spanish language article that said some scouts considered him among the top 3 pitchers in that year's IFA class putting him up there with Yadier Alvarez, Vladimir Gutierrez and Alvaro Seijas. I had to read it again. I had never heard of the guy. Badler had never mentioned him. I thought for sure the author must have meant top 3 in the Mexican League. I speak a little Spanish and could see there was nothing wrong with the translation. Looks like the Cubs found themselves a gem amongst the cacti.

I want to take this opportunity to mention the player I consider the unsung hero of the Cubs post season. Miguel Montero. He didn't start at catcher in a single game in the NLCS or World Series, and yet he made a huge and largely forgotten impact on their run to the championship. As we know, the Dodgers won games 2 and 3 in the NLCS to go up 2 games to 1. But it could've easily been 3-0. In game 1, the score was tied 3-3 in the bottom of the 8th. Montero comes in to pinch-hit with 2 outs and the bases loaded. With an 0-2 count, Montero hits a grand slam to put to Cubs up 7-3. If he swings and misses, the game goes to the 9th still tied. The Dodgers scored a run that inning and would've taken the lead. Fast forward to game 7 of the World Series. Everyone remembers Zobrist's go ahead double and rightly so. It gave the Cubs a 7-6 lead. But without Montero's single to LF, game 7 would've gone to the 11th inning tied 7 all. I don't hear it talked about it that way very often (if ever), but Miguel Montero got the series winning hit that delivered the Cubs their first championship in 108 years. Without Montero's clutch heroics, the Cubs might not have even gotten to the World Series much less won it. Here's to a team leader who started the hashtag #wearegood and he was right, they were. Here's to the mentor who while rehabbing in AA in 2015 worked with Willson Contreras and said he would be an all-star. Skeptical Cubs fans chalked his comments up to rah-rah homerism. Looks like Miggy was right again. Here's to the teammate who was Kyle Schwarber's biggest supporter on twitter despite Kyle being someone who was taking playing time away from him. Here's to the forgotten man, the unsung hero. Here's to Miguel Montero. #WeAreGood

That would be great. I hope you're right.

And that's why I'm glad they hung onto Eloy. I wasn't happy with the Chapman/Torres trade when it happened. Of course, I didn't know the state of Rondon and Strop's health at that time either. That kind of overpay was a shock to the system after the value-based mindset that Theo & Jed employed to get the Cubs where they are. In hindsight, it all worked out. Eloy is at least 2 years away. Plenty of time for the Cubs to see what they have in Almora and for Heyward to regain his stroke (or not). Interesting to note that Heyward has a no trade clause for this season and next, but the Cubs have a window to trade him (if necessary & possible) in 2019 and 2020 (before his 10 & 5 rights kick in) right when Eloy will be knocking on the door. Seems like an overstatement. Granted, we don't have a lot to go on with their IFA signings, but this organization hasn't been shy to be aggressive with promotions. I don't know as much as many here, but I could easily see him in AA by sometime next year, with a big league promotion sometime in 2018. It could be an over statement if he performs in the same dominant fashion at the 3 levels he has ahead of him. Who really knows. All I know is he played Low-A last season, will most likely start in High-A this year and the rest is up to him. The Cubs have been aggressive with some of their college picks and generally very patient with their high school/IFA guys. If he comes up inside of 2 years, it'll be by a month or so just to get a taste. For me, the most likely earliest time he could be a starter for the Cubs is 2 years away in 2019. And that's if everything goes right.

Gleyber is probably more highly-regarded than Eloy and we actually traded him. Oh yeah. Gleyber was more highly regarded at the deadline and still is. Gleyber will probably be a unanimous top 5 prospect in baseball while Eloy should be a top 25 prospect on most lists. Obviously Gleyber was more superfluous so it made it easier to part with him. And that's why I'm glad they hung onto Eloy. I wasn't happy with the Chapman/Torres trade when it happened. Of course, I didn't know the state of Rondon and Strop's health at that time either. That kind of overpay was a shock to the system after the value-based mindset that Theo & Jed employed to get the Cubs where they are. In hindsight, it all worked out. Eloy is at least 2 years away. Plenty of time for the Cubs to see what they have in Almora and for Heyward to regain his stroke (or not). Interesting to note that Heyward has a no trade clause for this season and next, but the Cubs have a window to trade him (if necessary & possible) in 2019 and 2020 (before his 10 & 5 rights kick in) right when Eloy will be knocking on the door.

That was never confirmed. In fact, some bloggers with decent access to Cubs FO have denied that ever happened. That said, I wouldn't want them to trade him either. Unless it's for a player like Sale.

Agree. I think they're hoping a few pitching prospects break out to give them some additional currency at the deadline. These have been my thoughts throughout this discussion of trading Candelario for AAA depth (which in my opinion would be a terrible idea even in a win now situation). If the Cubs can't get a young controllable starter with upside this offseason with a package built around Happ/Candelario/Clifton, etc., I would much rather they keep Candelario and see how he does in AAA (hopefully further building his trade value after a remarkable 2nd half) and wait for guys like Clifton, De La Cruz, Hatch and Albertos to more clearly establish trade value. After all, it would be nice to add such a long-term starter at the deadline to bolster a 2nd half run, but (barring injuries) they won't need him until next off season and certainly not now.

This. The Cubs currently have the 27th and 30th picks. The first number could move up to 25th depending on who signs Bautista and Trumbo. In 2014, the 27th pick was Luke Weaver. Michael Kopech was taken 33rd. In 2013, the 25th pick was Christian Arroyo, 29th pick was Ryne Stanek. In 2012, the top of the 2nd round is loaded with good/decent players. In 2011, the 25th pick was Joe Ross, the 27th pick is Robert Stephenson, the 29th pick was Joe Panik. Admittedly, the 27th and 30th picks in any draft are no sure things, but with the scouting and development staffs Jason McLeod has put together, I'd much rather have a shot at getting a Weaver, Kopech, Arroyo, Stephenson or Panik for 6 years than acquire Bautista for 1 year on a team where offense is not going to be a problem.