CubsWin

- After telling me I'm going after something that wasn't said you make pretty much the same case that he can get significantly better than he is because he's a good dude. I disagree, thought that was clear, but do believe that still being in the meat of his prime years might help him get that BABIP inflated season or two he'll need to be seen as a playmaker early in his career at the ML level. The focus on the walk rate is noise, I have talked about his overall lack of secondary skills rather than just the walk rate. - Kevin Pillar hit .323/.366/.478 in the minors with the elite defense and better speed too. Almora has hit .290/.323/.421 in the minors . I'm not a believer that being a good guy covers that kind of gap in on field production. Is Almora a higher quality prospect than other slap hitters who will get most of their value on defense while mostly relying on the Jahs to determine offensive value? Maybe, but I'm going to question that kind of player's career ceiling and overall fit with the Cubs' ML roster until they commit to one. His main leverage to remain a Cub is that he's already in house, but considering the Cubs' long term pitching needs and consistent appearance in trade rumors I think he's a guy to sell while he's young and cheap enough to pretend there aren't massive holes in his game and performance. Oh boy. Make-up is quite different than being a good guy. But if you feel the need to belittle it because it doesn't fit your narrative in this specific case, be my guest. I'm not interested in you changing your mind on anything. It seems like a double standard to me that you can get geeked over Paredes' ability to give a killer interview but not a different athlete's work ethic, etc. You get the last word on this one. I'm moving on.

?? From there the strong K rate, SLG, IsoSLG (.197 for Rose, .108 for league) are likely more significant moving forward than being less than a percentage point off the league raw OBP and a couple handful off the league's batting average. Obviously he needs to keep hitting and finish the year high, especially since my exact quote was getting to where the overall line is quality, but as of the night of 8/20 he was moving in that direction. Today's 0-5 hurts, so hopefully the last 17 games plus playoffs go better. As I wrote in my original response, he's definitely getting there. And I acknowledged that the SLG is already above average. Perhaps we just value different predictive stats. All good.

The thing Almora has going for him age wise is that he's a couple years off from the meat of his prime, but given that he keeps showing the same skills I don't think we get a suddenly dramatic change so much as he might run into a really BABIP friendly season during that age 23-26 range. I restated, if you choose to see it as such, what was said about his offense to make the opposite point - that his total lack of secondary skills on offense outside of making contact makes him much less likely than the Bryant/Schwarber/Russell trio to take some kind of leap forward. To the other part I probably just don't understand what you're saying. To me it seems a given that more info is better than less, and like I said all the stuff you see in Wilson's second half are in his overall, just with a less exciting looking triple slash line. Understood. The problem is I don't think anyone was predicting or even describing a "suddenly dramatic change" in his production. I specifically mentioned that he would likely always be someone with a below average walk rate. So you seem to be speaking against a statement that's not being made. As with with most players with above average make-up, they're more likely to get the most out of their abilities than the average prospect. Given that Almora reportedly excels in the make-up category, I have hope that he isn't just what he is at this point, and the more AAA and major league pitches he sees, the better he will get at the plate. Dramatically better? Probably not. But then again, to be a solid major league contributor, he doesn't have to become dramatically better. A line of .280/.320/.420 with well above average CF defense is pretty good. Time will tell if he can achieve that level. Even if he doesn't achieve that level, he's already pretty similar to major league starting CFers like Kevin Pillar who didn't debut until he was 24 and didn't have his first full season until 26. I'd say it's a better than 50/50 bet that Almora can be similar to or better than Pillar. But it's certainly valid to have a different opinion. The stats are definitely there to support that.

The typical MWL player is SLG below .400, .374 IIRC, and putting up a .707 OPS with a 21.7% K rate. When put in that context, Rose's slash and 18.1% K rate look a whole lot better. For me, quality means at least average across the board with some above average areas. His power is certainly above average. but the season long AVG and OBP are well below. Hitters in the MWL have averaged .249 and .318 in those categories. South Bend has a team average of .268 and OBP of .334. Perhaps "quality" means something different to you in which case this is just a matter of semantics. If Rose cools off significantly the rest of the way, for me, his season long slash becomes a bit more representative. If he maintains his strong 2nd half through to the end, it will lend credence to the notion that he's better than his season long slash in that he's turned a corner in his development. For me, his 2nd half numbers would then be more (not completely) representative of what he's become.

I get the feeling this is a huge factor. Cubs seemed to have ID'd Mexico as a country being underrated - probably a good idea since the best pitching prospect in baseball was signed out of their $3.50 or whatever it was. Don't forget Mexican signees like Sepulveda, Assad, Carrera, and Hector Garcia are all off to successful pro starts. It's really rather remarkable when you think about it. The Cubs have signed several prospects out of Mexico over the past couple of seasons (from recollection 8, I believe) and the only one who hasn't done well is Ruben Reyes (who wasn't that highly thought of to begin with as a 20-year-old). Even Zamudio's doing okay as a stateside 18-year-old.

With Vogelbach gone, he's the best 1B prospect in the organization for me. It's nice to see him possibly turn a corner. His overall line is getting there, but I wouldn't call .236/.312/.429 quality.

Well said, craig. I feel very much like you do on all four of these. That Katoh list was weird on a number of rankings for me, including Almora. Perhaps it was his defense that factored in so greatly. FWIW, the metrics (Fangraphs) really liked his D in the short time he was in the majors this season. The scouting on Wilson is really exciting. Adding the 2nd half breakout with the bat really piques the interest. And there are several scenarios as to how DJ might fit in down the line. The ones you listed are all possible. Szczur continues to do well and steps in if Fowler leaves with Heyward playing some CF. Almora gets traded or craps out with the bat and becomes the 4th OFer, etc. Obviously, there's a ton of wait and see between now and then.

Gotcha. I still think that context not only includes how his production compares to the rest of the league but also his age, whether he's repeated the league, his position, the quality with which he plays it, etc. I acknowledged that he's a lesser hitter than the other prospects mentioned in the post you're responding to and that he has consistently struggled with walks, so we agree there. Really rather you acknowledge that than simple restate it as if I didn't already, but whatever. To each their own. Not really. I think I was pretty clear in what I was saying. I'm not "already there" as if you're right and I am only to agree with you. But again, to each their own.

Very well said. I especially like looking at a player's statistics in relation to their league's (or level's) averages including that player's age. Again, well said.

If we look at his numbers without any context, I totally agree. He likely has an uphill road to be an above average hitter at the major league level, especially when you look at the numbers he put up this year in a vacuum. But when I fold in the facts that he was 22, the 2nd youngest player in his league and in his first go around in AAA, his numbers become less of a ceiling and more of a floor. When you add in his defensive quality and the up the middle position he plays, his offensive numbers take on even greater context as to the quality of major leaguer he can become. The biggest problem for him is that he had the same problem this year (very low walk rate) that he's had throughout his career. The fact that he did that again this year is troubling and predictive. He likely will always have a below average walk rate. One more piece of context is his mental make-up and work ethic. Most prospects when they hit 22 or 23 are finishing up their development arc. But Almora, like Bryant, Schwarber and Russell, is unlike most prospects. The Cubs FO put an emphasis on a player's make-up when making their selections and prospect acquisitions. I fully expect Bryant, Russell and Schwarber (even Baez to a lesser extent) to continue to improve because of having well above average qualities in that area. Those guys are not only more talented than most prospects, but their make-up is better than most prospects as well which tends to lengthen their developmental arc. Each of those players are different hitters. Almora is a lesser one in some respects, but where they're similar is in their ability to continue to grow and get the most out of their potential. Bryant will likely continue to cut down his Ks and hit better situationally. Russell will likely move closer to being a .275/.355/.440 guy. Schwarber will likely hit better than the .246/.355 of his rookie season. We've already seen Baez reinvent himself as a hitter. It's a work in progress and I doubt he ever has an OBP much above .335 in his career, but he's improving every year. Given the sort of make-up characteristics that Almora reportedly shares with his fellow 1st round picks, he may be a lesser hitter, but he should continue to improve over the next few seasons. Rightly or wrongly, I'm still excited to see what he can become, and I think if he improves it will have more to do with hard work than luck.

Generally speaking, of course. I was speaking rather specifically, though. Craig and I have both stated that Wilson is not going to maintain his 2nd half numbers as he progresses to the upper levels so I don't think anyone is being misled by them. For young players who are still developing, if they show progression as the year goes on, I put a bit more weight on the production he had later on in the season. The same goes for if they got off to a hot start and finish the season with a consistently bad 2nd half. They either got stuck in some bad habits, got lucky in the 1st half or, in the case of players at more advanced levels, the league adjusted to them and they weren't able to adjust back. DJ Wilson's case is an extreme example, of course, so I agree in most cases the season line will tell a more complete picture of what kind of player the prospect is. We all like to have fun with arbitrary end points but unless the sample size is large enough and the higher level of performance is consistent enough, those arbitrary points are just that. If DJ is able to continue this level of production through the rest of this season, I'd say those numbers carry even more weight and make his 1st half numbers less relevant. Interestingly, the most extreme example of a season long line being the most intensely predictive involved a different Willson. In Willson Contreras' breakout year in AA, there were no arbitrary end points. He was consistently that good all year long. He never had a bad week, much less month. He started out great and kept on being great and then got better. Even though it was a complete aberration in comparison to the rest of his career, it was so consistently good that it made everything that came before basically irrelevant. You can't be that consistently good all year at an advanced level like AA and not be for real. I'd never seen anything like it, and I doubt I ever will again.

Paredes at it again with a 2 RBI triple.

I agree with you that the K/HR stat isn't all that telling, more so when the player is 19 than later on in his career. And I agree that the context is definitely on Wilson side here. (As it is with Almora but his numbers are more of a problem than Wilson's.) But you may have oversimplified what I said about overall lines. In the case of extreme differences between 1st and 2nd halves where the 2nd half is much better and the player is young (and young for his league), the season long numbers can be misleading.

Don't want to jinx it, but the good Justin Steele has shown up thru 4 innings tonight.

Obviously Ks and BBs tend to drop when a player starts hitting everything in sight, so it's somewhat a question of chicken or egg (did he make an actual adjustment that led to seeing the ball better or a change in approach becoming more selective or is this just a hot streak and he could return to his previous ways), but since July 20th (his last 23 games), DJ's K% is 11.2% (10 Ks in 89 PAs). In that time he's hit, .413/.432/.625 (11 doubles & 2 HRs) with a .437 BABIP. Call it luck or increased hard contact, probably some combination of both, he may have figured something out. From the beginning of the season up to July 20th (27 games) he K'd at a 25.4% rate (30 Ks in 118 PAs) and hit .158/.280/.238 with just 1 HR and a .214 BABIP. The fact that he's done better in the 2nd half (and not vice versa) supports the notion of actual development, but obviously the more data the better. One thing we do know is he hasn't slowed down yet. When there's such a drastic improvement from 1st half to 2nd half and the player is so young in his first go around in a league, I tend to take the overall numbers with a grain of salt. I doubt Wilson is as good as his 2nd half numbers, but that 40 K/3 HR stat is likely misleading.

Ha! That's right. Spaced that. Thanks.

Neither Zastryzny or Pena are on the 40-man. It currently has one spot open so someone is going to have to come off. Beeler or Brooks could be moved to the 60-day DL. I think that's the most likely move. It's possible they could drop one of Acevedo, Soto or Alvarez, but less likely in my mind. As far as the 25-man roster, I would think Patton would be sent to Iowa and Lackey to the 7-day or 15-day DL. We'll find out soon enough...

Actually he's shown more power potential than Gleyber did at 17 in the AZL, at least through the first ~150 PAs, and Gleyber's got at least solid average power potential at this point. A lot of this guy's outs are being made in the air, which I think might be a positive. 3/4 so far with 3 XBHs tonight as the AZL Cubs have broken out for 11 through 6. The bat is certainly exciting. His ability to stick at SS, or even be average to above defensively at any position is in question at this point. He's got plenty of time to improve with his glove. Gotta a like a 17-year-old no matter what position he plays performing as well as he is stateside right now, though. Currently hitting .307 with an OBP above .350 and SLG around if not over .400 (after the 2 doubles and a HR tonight) and a good K-to-BB ratio of 2:1 (11 BB/20 K).

Obviously just speculation, but I had the notion back in May that after having hit so well in spring training this year (not to mention the fall league and AA to end 2015), that it was a psychological let down to be back in AA. He'd had a taste of success with the big leaguers and then with Villanueva going down thought AAA was a given. But who knows, maybe the Cubs wanted him to work on his D in AA and he was focused on that or some approach/mechanical adjustment that took him out of his game for a bit. In any case, I'd rather see struggles in the 1st half of the season than the 2nd half. It doesn't necessarily prove he's learning/improving, but the opposite would certainly prove that he wasn't.

It hasn't been quietly for me. Ever since there was a report during ExST that he was hitting mid-90s, I've been watching closely. Once he got into games, the velo reports dipped a bit, though. Decent size at 6'1", 200 lbs. Has been really coming on of late. Had a couple of rough outings in June, but since then, he gone 26.2 IP, 25 H, 2.03 ERA, 1 HR, 6 BB, 31 K. He just turned 19 two weeks ago. With development, he could be an interesting 19-year-old member of Eugene's rotation next season which could also include Erling Moreno (20 in January) and Tyson Miller (21).

Bloomquist pitched for SB instead of Kellogg. Promotion?

Underwood finished with 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB and 2 K. Paredes now up to .298 with 2 singles on the night so far...

Have you heard/read any scouting report info on him lately?

Interesting to see 4 decent to really good pitching prospects pitching on the same night. I feel like, with injuries and suckitude, that hasn't happened all season. Morrison - 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. On the year, 11-4, 2.09, 112 IP, 100 H, 27 BB, 102 K. De La Cruz - 5 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. On the year, 1-1, 1.38, 26 IP, 13 H, 6 BB, 38 K. Cease - 3.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. On the year, 1-0, 3.33, 27 IP, 23 H, 16 BB, 33 K. Carrera - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. On the year, 6-1, 1.17, 61.2 IP, 45 H, 19 BB, 45 K. With arrows pointing up for Clifton, Zastryzny, Paulino, Steele, Marquez, Kellogg and Moreno, that's 11 arms to follow. Throw in Clark, Miller and Hatch plus the injured Williams and Underwood, and the Cubs have 16 arms from which a handful could emerge with some interesting power bullpen arms as well. It's a start.

I see your point. He's never been a high on-base guy. The drop off from Fowler's numbers to his would be dramatic. Plenty of reasons to be disappointed if Fowler were to leave and be replaced by Almora. But you gotta admit, choosing those 70 PAs (or any 70 PAs) and a player comp from BP (or any player comp from anywhere) might not have been the best way to make your case. That's some serious cherry picking. You makin' a pie?