CubsWin

I like the last way of listing (with 2 lists). No bias, totally flexible. I'd say you could probably go 60-70 deep on the list.

Thanks, davell. Always loved tuning in to Yags' site after the draft is done. Had actually forgotten about it with the major league team distracting me (and the lack of the top two picks). In the article Yags has linked for Ridings, they dropped the "3" from his number of walks making him sound much more impressive... In actuality, Ridings walked 37 batters. They also failed to mention the 10 hit batsmen and 13 wild pitches. Nothing quite like your hometown paper, I guess...

My personal favorite was Dustin May, but he was nabbed by the Doyers 3 picks before...

Flux capacitor alert. Miller turns 21 next month on 07/29.

The Cubs placed 6 in MLB's top 100 pre-season. It'll be interesting to see if those numbers hold true. Contreras and Torres will likely be top 25. Happ (70), Underwood (71), Almora (80) and McKinney (82) populated the back end of the list. Assuming no drastic changes, Underwood and McKinney will likely drop off. Happ should still be top 100. Almora I can see making the list based on his defensive value, batting average and being one of the youngest in his league. Jimenez should make it fairly easily if things hold true for him. Has Clifton done enough to make it? Has anyone else done enough to keep that number at 6 in the top 100 come mid-season?

Has there been a new study showing such drastically different results? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/ Loved that. The removal of the PED-era from the sample explains a lot of the difference. Thanks, David. Really fascinating how the game is changing. Much of the change in the curve comes from players being better prepared when they're brought up. But I still don't get the age 23-24 peak years. According to this study, the author concludes that players begin their decline at age 26. Am I missing something?

"Age 23-24 are peak power, speed, and defense seasons for a typical player..." Is this true? I've never heard that anywhere. The following is from a Boston Globe article from 2015. Has there been a new study showing such drastically different results?

Clearly a case of not enough "Rs". Gotta use at least 6...

I didn't take that as a comment on Tom's like of Kellogg being overzealous. He was just doing the Tony the Tiger reference because of Ryan's last name. Or am I off?

- It's safe to say that last night was not a typical Edwards outing over the past 3 seasons, despite the walks, just by looking at literally anything else. So yes they are isolated outings that don't demand a dramatic reaction. - No, that does not make any sense. I can't even see how you get to that conclusion. All pitchers have bad outings once in a while. - They've called him up twice already without meeting your completely arbitrary BB/9 standards. It's not as if sub-4 BB/9 suddenly means he has great control. Except for Warren the bullpen is composed of guys who all were on the team last year, so the logical answer would be that there has been no need to call him up yet on a permanent basis. The org clearly likes him - demonstrated by multiple callups, including an unnecessary one in April, and being the one minor leaguer traveling with the club during the playoff run last year. - For someone not trying to change my mind you've spent a significant amount of time trying to change my mind. Isn't this the second time we've had this same convo just this season? Okay. Never mind.

I was just thinking about that. You thinking Rich Hill? Doolittle?

I'm rooting for him. His last outing was pretty good too. Hopefully he can get on a roll like Effross. He hasn't allowed a run (earned or otherwise) since April. 12.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 17 K in May and 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 3 K today. For those that don't like math, over his last 9 outings: 14 IP, 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 20 K, 0.50 WHIP.

Yeah, don't think anyone was or is contesting that. But I would say, at this point in time, there's a case to be made that if Felix Pena were on the 40-man he'd be ahead of Carl for the next call up. The walks are thing. 2014 - 4.2 per 9 in 53.2 IP. 2015 - 6.7 per 9 in 55.1 IP. 2016 - 5.3 per 9 in 20.1 IP. It's not a blip or a flash in the pan. That's over his most recent 129.1 IP. I still think he'll be a very good major league contributor and is very difficult to hit, but he's got to get those walks down to be count-on-able at the next level, especially on a championship-caliber team. I cannot repeat myself enough about this but when your don't allow hits, home runs, and you strike out 1 out of every 3 hitters stepping up to the plate in the minors, walks are less of a thing than imagined. Sure, occaisonally there is an outing like last night, but that is true of literally any pitcher regardless. These kind of outings aren't worth reacting to unless they become normal or the guy pops up injured the next day, otherwise chalk it up to [expletive] happening once in a while. I mean there's even an angle here where you're mentioning 129 innings spread over a bunch of seasons (where, overall, he was still performing to an awesome level). He's had a 116 inning season where he walked 3.2 per 9 taking starter innings! I just don't and won't share the concern unless his shoulder or elbow blows up or until he is crapping the bed in the majors. Until then it is the pitcher version of Bryant K'ing 30% of the time while still being an all around great hitter and hitting prospect when he was doing it in the minors. Doing everything else not just right, but in a dominant fashion, overwhelms the one hole and even suggests long term optimism - there's plenty of opportunity to correct a flaw when it's your only flaw (and you remain healthy enough to physically make changes). Pena is not uninteresting. Not the arm in this system I would hang my hat on obviously, but sure maybe between he and Patton there might be a competent MR. These kind of outings aren't worth reacting to unless they become normal or the guy pops up injured the next day, otherwise chalk it up to [expletive] happening once in a while. But if the pitcher is walking 4.2 per 9, 6.7 per 9 and 5.3 per 9 over his last 3 seasons, then it's not isolated outings that can just be ignored as horsefeathers that happens once in a while. It's little more than once in a while. Sure, occaisonally there is an outing like last night, but that is true of literally any pitcher regardless. If that were true, every pitcher would be walking 5 guys per 9 innings. That would be considered average. It's not. I cannot repeat myself enough about this but when your don't allow hits, home runs, and you strike out 1 out of every 3 hitters stepping up to the plate in the minors, walks are less of a thing than imagined. I agree with you here to an extent (which is why I said in my OP that he's certainly difficult to hit and will likely be a good contributor at the next level someday), but if the walks weren't a thing for the Cubs, something he needs to improve upon before being effective at the next level, then why haven't they called him up already? Given your love of repeating yourself :P , I'm not looking to change your mind. I'm just stating that I don't think he can contribute in a way the Cubs need him to until he becomes more consistent and gets the walks down below 4 per 9 without losing his effectiveness overall. Feel free to disagree.

I'll assume that Tom posted about Concepcion's walk before Edwards came into the game. Or he just didn't want to talk about his boy walking three and giving up a couple runs. Yeah, I made the post at the beginning of the 9th and forgot to go check. It's pretty safe to still say that Edwards is a better prospect than Concepcion anyway. Yeah, don't think anyone was or is contesting that. But I would say, at this point in time, there's a case to be made that if Felix Pena were on the 40-man he'd be ahead of Carl for the next call up. The walks are thing. 2014 - 4.2 per 9 in 53.2 IP. 2015 - 6.7 per 9 in 55.1 IP. 2016 - 5.3 per 9 in 20.1 IP. It's not a blip or a flash in the pan. That's over his most recent 129.1 IP. I still think he'll be a very good major league contributor and is very difficult to hit, but he's got to get those walks down to be count-on-able at the next level, especially on a championship-caliber team.

And with guys like Cahill and Warren in the pen, if Hammel (or any other pitcher) goes on the DL, the shitty AAA starting depth won't matter. They can just bring up their best reliever. Theo and Jed absolutely killed this off season. Have your starter depth be major leaguers (Cahill, Warren, Wood), amass quality relief depth in AAA (Edwards, Patton, Pena). Oh, and sign Heyward, Zobrist, Lackey and Fowler. If Warren gets some starts this year and does well, the Castro trade looks even better. Free up the money to get Zo and bring in Warren with 2 more years of control after this one. Not bad...

Mods. Should we make this a sticky?

...Gone. Let's close this round out now that we're at 25. We'll do another one after the All-Star break.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. That's why I wanted to wrap this round up. So much has changed. The mid-season top 25 will look a lot different from the one we just created and it could even be different from the top 11 you have above. I've been impressed with how the Cubs developmental staff has performed of late. This is the most developmentally dynamic I've ever seen this organization. So many guys would stagnate before. Top prospects would struggle at the upper levels. There were never any Willson Contreras' or Ryan Williams' before. Of course, the Cubs didn't really have a cohesive developmental philosophy or top notch scouting staff until 4 years ago... As it stands now, I like your list. Depending on how Hudson does in Eugene, I agree he could crack the top 11, but someone would have to fall off because that's a pretty solid group you've got there. Maybe McKinney or Underwood if they get really hot and stay that way. Some lower ceiling guys at 10 and 11, but Caratini and Zagunis have very solid floors.

Going twice...

I'm right there with you. Most of the starters at the upper levels are lower ceiling, but BORs have value, too. There are a lot of interesting relief prospects at the upper levels, though. Starters Wiliams (24) AAA - BOR Underwood (21) AA - MOR Blackburn (22) AA - BOR+ Clifton (21) High A - MOR De La Cruz (21) Low A - MOR (Elbow Rehab) Cease (20) SS Low A - TOR Hudson (19) SS Low A - MOR+ Relievers Edwards (24) - AAA Pena (26) - AAA Concepcion (24) - AAA Patton (28) - AAA Peralta (25) - AA Black (24) - AA Others could be added to these lists, but those are the ones that I currently consider having the best mix of both floor and ceiling. If you're willing to count Black, I'd include Paniagua. Fair enough. I'd heard his velo had dropped. Maybe I'm mistaken.

I'm right there with you. Most of the starters at the upper levels are lower ceiling, but BORs have value, too. There are a lot of interesting relief prospects at the upper levels, though. Starters Wiliams (24) AAA - BOR Underwood (21) AA - MOR Blackburn (22) AA - BOR+ Clifton (21) High A - MOR De La Cruz (21) Low A - MOR (Elbow Rehab) Cease (20) SS Low A - TOR Hudson (19) SS Low A - MOR+ Relievers Edwards (24) - AAA Pena (26) - AAA Concepcion (24) - AAA Patton (28) - AAA Peralta (25) - AA Black (24) - AA Others could be added to these lists, but those are the ones that I currently consider having the best mix of both floor and ceiling.

Yeah, I'm very excited for Cease and Hudson. Please save us all from our glut of uninspiring starting pitchers. Any reports from AZ Phil on Hudson's velocity? It's really annoying that Oscar De La Cruz hasn't been healthy all season. Yes it is. What's more annoying for me is the lack of info on his situation. All we know is it's an elbow. No word on it's severity. The good news is he hasn't been slated for surgery yet. The Cubs have been pretty good with shutting down guys at the first sign of problems and avoiding surgery. I believe Underwood had an elbow problem last year in late June. He was back on the mound 2 months later. Hopefully, the Cubs can do something similar with Oscar.

Yeah, I'm very excited for Cease and Hudson. Please save us all from our glut of uninspiring starting pitchers. Any reports from AZ Phil on Hudson's velocity? None in this report, but others down in Mesa have him low-90s on his FB with a devastating curve when it's on. With his youth and room to add to his 6'8" frame, it's quite possible he'll add some velo to that FB. Cease is consistently upper 90s. His control is still inconsistent which isn't rare for a guy in his 2nd year after TJS. Cease is already working in a change-up in game situations. If Hudson can develop a change over the next 3 years, that's a nice MOR+ profile from the left side. Long ways to go with those two, though...

Here comes Jeimer Candelario. Over the last 10 games he's hit .400, raising his AVG 42 points. He's over 300 ABs in AA now. If he keeps hitting well, he could AAA as a 22-year-old come late June/early July as they don't have anyone blocking him at 3B. That would give Iowa 4 interesting hitting prospects all a year or two young for their league. Keep it up, Candy...

The good: Bryan Hudson: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 GIDP, 6/0 GO/AO, 50 pitches (28 strikes) The bad: Erling Moreno: 2.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R (7 ER), 2 BB, 4 K, 2 WP, 1/2 GO/AO, 65 pitches (37 strikes) Per AZ Phil, Hudson on the year: 6 games, 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .246 OppBA 20.0 IP, 17 H, 7 R (6 ER), 5 BB, 19 K, 1 HBP, 0 HR, 1 WP, 3 GIDP, 25/8 GO/AO, 290 pitches (62% strikes), 14.5 PITCHES-PER-INNING Love the GO/AO of 3.13 to go along with a 3.8-to-1 K/BB. Dude just turned 19. He's 6'8", 220. Him, Cease and to a lesser but still interesting extent Paulino will be fun to watch in Eugene this year.