CubsWin

That one's in Milwaukee! We didn't get a "Hey! Hey!" call as it was Lou doing the call but we did get both a "Holy Mackerel!" and a "No doubt about it!" on this legendary Kingman blast. And just in case that call made your mind harken back to another classic...

Man, watching those highlights (on top of being fun) had me realize the improvements, both subtle and obvious, that have been made to this roster since last year. For the most part, Zobrist replaces Castro, Heyward replaces Soler/Schwarber and Lackey replaces Wada/Haren. That's improvement. But on top of that... Jonathan Herrera, Junior Lake, Mike Olt, Arismendy Alcantara, Austin Jackson, Mike Baxter and Chris Denorfia (the last two weren't bad actually) combined for 566 AB with 150 K/38 BB and a .235 AVG. Assuming health from the 2016 group, those guys were essentially replaced by Soler/Schwarber, Javy Baez, Tommy La Stella and (for now) Matt Szczur. Even including the absence of Chris Coghlan from the current bench, that's got to be better. James Russell, Dallas Beeler, Edwin Jackson, Jason Motte, Donn Roach, Brian Schlitter, Phil Coke, Yoervis Medina, Gonzalez German, Rafael Soriano and Tommy Hunter combined to throw 178.2 IP with 132 K/58 BB giving up 212 hits for a 1.51 WHIP and an ERA of 5.24. Some of those guys represent AAA injury call-ups, but essentially they've been replaced by Trevor Cahill, Neil Ramirez, Adam Warren and (for now) Clayton Richard with likely AAA injury call-ups Carl Edwards, Pierce Johnson, Ryan Williams, Spencer Patton and Manny Parra. What's that about little things adding up?

This is definitely old, certainly Cubs-related and pretty hilarious from Hamm's modern glass bottle to their new, cutting-edge seamless aluminum can. My how things have changed...

How many of you remember Burt Hooten?

You did say "old", right?

Assuming Candelario will start in AA, I see the likely rosters looking something like this: AAA Contreras - C Vogelbach - 1B Alcantara - 2B Kawasaki...? - SS Dent...? - 3B Almora - CF Andreoli - RF ...and a veteran guy like Victorino plus whoever decides to sign a minor league contract from the NSI list. P. Johnson Williams Fife They've been starting Drew Rucinski (sp?) this spring and whoever else with the possibility of using Edwards as a swing man. In the pen there'd be a lot of veteran depth guys with some major league experience like Patton and Acevedo and some of the NSI guys (Gomes, etc.). Hold overs like Rivero and (I'm hoping Felix Pena) could be there, too. AA Caratini - C It was going to be Rogers but they just cut him, so for now I guess who's on first C. Young - 2B Penalver - SS Candelario - 3B McKinney - LF Hannemann - CF Zagunis - RF Underwood Blackburn Tseng Skulina Markey I've heard Torres has been throwing exclusively from the pen this season. After that, Berg and Pugliese are likely but it's a mish-mash. Peralta? High-A Amaya/Remillard...? - C Balaguert - 1B Happ - 2B Torres - SS Vosler - 3B and then some combo of Burks, Crawford, Martin, Baez and Dunston. Clifton Null Stinnett (though I really think he will do a lot better out of the pen eventually) Likely one or more of last year's college arms (Kellogg, Morrison, etc.) Low-A Lots of options, but PJ Higgins has been looking very good at C this spring. He's a recent conversion so ExST might be in order. Rose - 1B This was going to be Delarosa, but now... Sepulveda has been hitting well this spring but that'd be skipping a level... - 2B Monasertio or Son...? - SS Paula - 3B Dewees - LF Martinez (eventually if not to start the year)- CF Jimenez - RF Cease (eventually in order to limit IP) De La Cruz Steele Sands Alzolay Araujo will close. ExST There are a lot of interesting names to follow. 17-year-old defensive wiz Miguel Amaya at catcher. Chris Pieters OF-1B. Carlos Sepulveda at 2B. Isaac Paredes at SS. Wladimir Galindo - 3B. DJ Wilson in CF. Bryan Hudson - SP. Other arms include Jose Albertos, Erling Moreno, Javier Assad and Junior Marte. I'm sure I'm wrong on a lot of these, but that's my best guess right now.

I always thought he'd start in Tennessee this year, too. He's performed well this spring and in the AFL last fall, so that might impact the Cubs decision but this FO has been pretty consistent (unless you're an elite prospect) wanting players to get as close to 500 PAs per level as they can justify before promoting someone. Candelario only had 182 PAs at the AA level last season, is still young for his league and there's no urgency with him given the presence of Bryant and Rizzo in the bigs. If I had to wager, he'll start in Tennessee.

Found the above the most interesting in BA's article. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/international-reviews-chicago-cubs-2015/#WV4hErJBSeKB70p5.97 Other interesting notes; Paredes, Ademan, Albertos & possibly Sierra playing in AZL. Ademan best prospect from IFA signings. Christopher Morel injured. Out until mid season at least. Marquez 92 mph Albertos 94. Javier Assad (150k) 94 Apparently several teams didn't even get an opportunity to see Henderson Perez. Cubs signed him early i'd say I've read reports on Yunior Perez and Javier Assad in minor league camp this spring with similar velocities and saw them both when I visited Mesa. I was surprised. Under the radar signings. The Cubs scouts continue to impress.

Albertos got some love in the spanish language article announcing he'd signed with the Cubs. It said some scouts thought he was a top-3 talent of all IFA pitchers. I'd never heard of C Henderson Perez until you posted this and he got the same money as Amaya.

Informative Q&A with McLeod on ESPN.com.

2016 Rankings: Sickels - Underwood 5th, Candelario 12th Callis (MLB) - Underwood 4th, Candelario 7th Manuel (BA) - Underwood 4th, Candelario 10th Farnsworth (Fangraphs) Underwood 3rd, Candelario 10th Crawford (BP) Underwood 8th, Candelario not in his top 15. Sickels and Callis follow the Cubs prospects pretty closely and the others might just be group thinking their rankings. As I see it, his main drawback right now is his inconsistency and a K% that took a hit last season (a season in which he sustained a shoulder injury) but was at 20.3% the year before. That's not bad for a raw-ish 19-year-old (he turned 20 in late July) in Low-A. He's got the stuff, but it's plus to plus-plus one inning and then it's not. That tells me he's got a high ceiling but is struggling to reproduce the outcome on a pitch-by-pitch basis. He's been playing above his level his entire career (he's 21 going into AA). He held batters in Low-A to a BAA of .230 and in High-A to .200. He's improved his BB%, H/9, WHIP and FIP (which aren't that great mostly due to his middling K%)) every season since rookie ball. He was raw when they drafted him and has improved every year but hasn't put it all together consistently yet. I have no problem putting Candelario at #8. I like him, but if we're going to go ceiling-heavy with guys like Cease and Jimenez, then why not Underwood?

I went Underwood. Eloy has yet to see full season ball. Way too much of an unknown. Underwood is athletic by most if not all accounts has above average FB and CB with an improving CU. The K-rate doesn't match the stuff at this point, but he's still just 21 heading into AA. The Cubs have been known to have younger prospects focus more on development than performance and have often asked younger arms to focus on a certain weakness in games at lower levels. He's had very strong ERAs and WHIPs the last two seasons. So even if the K-rate doesn't rise, he's getting hitters (most of them older than he is) out at a well above average rate (.230 BAA in Low-A, .200 last season). Cease may have a higher ceiling. Eloy may as well, but they also have a lot more to prove.

Primarily, he became a reliever and didn't answer his control questions. Contreras, Candelario and Happ performed well. Plus scouts liked what they saw from Cease, De La Cruz, Wilson and Hudson. Other guys like Almora, McKinney and Underwood, all 2-3 years younger, held their own.

Almora's floor is more clearly defined. He hasn't performed at his peak in the last 2 seasons but we've at least had a chance to see how he handled AA. At this point, Happ is just too unknown for me. If he hadn't struck out as much as he did in Low-A last season, this would've been a tougher choice. Still close though.

AZ Phil gave a complete breakdown of the IFA signings thus far. Lots of names we haven't heard before (and may never hear again...)

Where were we? That's right, about Almora...

Yes sir, BLB. I shall never post again. I promise. Just for you. Thank you for your counsel.

:-)) What now? :-)) :-)) :-)) Nothing, man. Just curious. Before you were saying "he is what he is" and the in last line of your previous post you said you had an open mind just didn't consider it likely. Never mind, It doesn't matter.

For me the anecdotal stuff is what it is, anecdotal stuff. We've gone through Almora tweaking his swing before, and everyone in the minors is adjusting and going through adjustment periods so he isn't unique there. The best ones hit anyway. That will not be the last "adjustment period" of Almora's career. I believe he will hit well enough in AAA next year to maintain a quality prospect status, but unless he comes out mashing HRs, hitting for high average, and taking some more walks, I have serious doubts he's suddenly a brand new, way better hitter solely on Cubs sourced stories and the really strong August. My mind is open to him becoming a dramatically better player and hitter, that doesn't make it the likely outcome. Ok. Thanks. Just making sure, are you no longer saying "he is what he is"? Not that it matters, just wondering cuz it sounds like it.

It isn't. Time to change the title I guess if it really matters.

A more accurate statement is that it's almost all anecdotal. He went on a quest and found himself with Team USA, gave himself a pep talk, remembered his lessons, tweaked his swing, adjusted other stuff, and then kicked ass in August. Now he's added muscle, is in the Best Shape of His Life, and so on. Beyond 140 PAs, with a .387 BABIP, where he hit for high average, some power, and took some more walks, everything else seems to be anecdotal and/or Cubs sourced. "Gave himself a pep talk". That was funny. Sounds like for you the anecdotal evidence is being shrugged off. That's fine. For me, in this case not all, it is providing a context that tells me to keep an open mind and see how he hits in AAA before thinking I know what he is.

As I've said all along, your assessment of Almora might be accurate. You seem to have your mind made up and I have no problem with that. The reason why my mind remains open is because I don't think all progression is linear. You are basing your decision by looking at his most recent stats. That's not unorthodox. That makes a lot of sense and often leads to accurate predictions/projections. But there's some evidence that suggests Almora's recent year plus of struggles aren't indicative of his future. I think sometimes when a player is asked to make adjustments, he will struggle for a while before it clicks. That may or may not be the case with Almora. One of the main reasons why I think it might be is that when it "clicked" for him, he improved in the exact way he had been asked to. It wasn't just a hot streak where he got a lot of hits that previously were outs by just finding holes. It's that he got more walks while hitting for greater power and average. He started successfully waiting for his pitch, one he could drive. That's the exact result the Cubs asked him to work for back in 2014 in High-A. As you mentioned, he also made a mechanical tweak when he brought back his leg kick right before he started hitting for more power. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence as well. He's talked about his struggles with the adjustment and it clicking late last year. He's talked about him thinking too much while working on the adjustment and how he felt out of whack because of it. He talked about when he played for Team USA, he stopped thinking so much and started having fun again, and how that carried over when he returned to the Smokies. He talked about how having fun again helped things to click. The Cubs FO talked about asking him to make the adjustment back in 2014. Theo just recently talked about how Almora is just starting to figure out his approach. That's why I still have an open mind. None of this is said so that you change yours. You don't need to change a thing. I'm just discussing baseball.

I'm just running with what he's been for ~1400 minor league PAs, including ~600 AA PAs. This isn't a bad player or prospect, I have made thar clear, so I don't get what it is that bothers you so much. Lumping all of his plate appearances together and not putting any of it in perspective or considering a very young player's learning curve is a pretty short sighted thing to do. The next couple of years will tell what Almora is or isn't. He's not a finished product. He still has time to put up some substantially better numbers. This. Thanks, Vinestal. Tom, the only thing that bothers me is you respond to posts sometimes seemingly without reading them. I wrote flat out "Nothing is being asked of you", "I'm simply stating my case" "You don't have to do a thing" "That's cool". But you write back "I don't get what it is that bothers you so much".

You don't have to do a thing. There is no "obligation". Nothing is being asked of you. I'm simply stating my case for why I'm keeping an open mind. You seem to know what he is and isn't. That's cool.

Almora did a Q&A with MiLB.com on the 16th. Here are some excerpts...