CubsWin

There are 3 or 4 people here that can do a far better job of talking about minor leaguers than Arguello. He doesn't have much credibility with me, he's spent years building a following with fake sources and just making crap up. Maybe having to be accountable to a boss will straighten him out somewhat. I love a lot of the writers that left BP to join 2080 so I guess we'll see. Fake sources? Who? How would you know? Or are you just making crap up...?

Jeimer Candelario is on the fan vote in ballot. The deadline to vote is tomorrow, Wednesday the 4th at 1pm central. Link http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/fallstars/form.jsp

Damn, I'd never made the Back to the Future connection before. Good catch. Ha! Obviously everyone knows. It was a shot at myself for how wide-eyed I was in 1989. Some people just don't get it...

I still remember seeing this scene in the theatre in 1989 and getting a chuckle out of it thinking, "Gee, I hope we don't have to wait that long!" After all, the Cubs won their division that year. Now I hope that's exactly how long we have to wait. In case you're wondering, the actual odds of the Cubs winning the World Series this year at the start of the season was 14-1. Today, they're the Vegas favorite at 2-1. Go Cubs.

This. Nice to get a 1st round talent in a draft when they'll be picking late, and keep 'em coming, Tom. This is an historic influx of talent and the Cubs timed this (or lucked into this) perfectly. Pony up.

Wow. Just wow. I ran into Jason McLeod at the Cubs/Giants game in SF and shook his hand thanking him for compiling all this great, young talent. Looks like I'm going to have to shake it again! MLB.com has EJM as their 4th best IFA behind Alvarez, Gutierrez and Diaz. But this was posted a couple weeks ago on page 14... Previous posters have alluded to Law's love of EJM. Here's what he had to say...

Just to follow up on CubsWin's post. Montero is old for a catcher, his years are numbered. Whether or not Schwarber is going to be a high-usage catcher is very much uncertain. His defense may be too poor; his hitting might be so good they don't want to wear him out there; the may be so World-Series-Nowacrat that they don't want to invest big-league development time on him as a catcher? So, I think there's a very clearly open path for Contreras to become a Cubs "starter". Whether that's a "share-time" catcher with Schwarber, who knows. Maybe Contreras plays a lot, Schwarber plays some and plays a lot of OF. Or, maybe Schwarber plays a lot at catcher and Contreras a little. Not only that, but Contreras and Schwarber complement each other well. Assuming they both continue to improve their pitch framing and game calling and their development in general, Schwarber brings the big power bat from the left-side of the plate with lesser defensive skills while Contreras brings a less powerful, still talented bat with greater defensive skills from the right side. Most teams have a starting catcher with a decent bat and good receiving skills and then a defensive specialist with a light bat as the back up. I don't think I can remember any major league team who had two starting caliber catchers, with good bats that complemented each other so well. If all goes well, the Cubs could have that type of combo, and they could be together for several years as they are just 10 months apart in age and will be under team control for a long time. It's a unique and exciting possibility. I don't know what the chances of that result happening are, but I do know that the Cubs developmental staff has been having a lot of success lately.

I have no problem with Zagunis as a "spare part". A 4th OFer who can get on base has value. If he has a ceiling of Tommy La Stella as an OFer, I'll take it. I disagree with you on Underwood and Contreras. Underwood is a top 100 prospect on many lists and has the arsenal and development curve at age 21 heading into AA to be a MOR. He held CL hitters to a .202 avg and got them to hit it on the ground with a 1.46 GO/AO. Ks would be nice, but it could be the Cubs are teaching him how to pitch so he can go deeper into games. He's 21 and has the stuff to generate weak contact and miss bats. Let's see if the Ks will come. If you have questions about Contreras' defensively maybe this will help. As a converted infielder, Contreras has been ranked as a very good, athletic catch and throw guy for a couple of years now. He has been timed with a 1.85 pop time on a throw down to second — equivalent to a grade of 65 per Fangraphs' Carson Cistulli. Miguel Montero, who worked with him and watched him play during a 4 game rehab stint with Tennessee, either called him above average defensively or better and an above average starting catcher in the bigs. Two more sober, less biased opinions... I'm still wait and see on his bat because it was just one season, but he was remarkably consistent all year and his BB/K ratio portends he can carry this year's success forward. He certainly has the ability to be a starter in the bigs and is on schedule to fill Ross' roster spot in 2017. It seems game calling and pitch framing are his two biggest areas left for improvement. Though not a finished product, he's close.

I also agree that there's no reason to trade Candelario yet unless someone is really interested in giving something up for him. This Cubs FO rightly values depth. And there is more than one scenario in which Jeimer isn't blocked at the major league level. He's a fallback option for sure, but I'd rate Candelario as more likely to succeed at the major league level than Christian Villanueva. Necessity could require Bryant move to the OF. Castro could be traded. Baez could fail. Injuries, trades, plenty of reasons to hang onto him and see how he develops. One thing that gives me hope he's turned a corner was his 22 BB/21 K ratio in AA. I have a lot more confidence in the Cubs' ability to develop prospects now than ever before. I'd like to see what he can become. If he can be an above average, switch-hitting 3B who hits 35-40 doubles, 10-15 HRs, with a solid BB/K ratio as a 22-year old in AA/AAA...

Agreed. Greatly looking forward to see how Almora and Contreras do in AAA and to see if Candelario can keep it going in AA to start next season. I'm equally as interested to see how Underwood progresses. He was the top ranked Cub prospect on this list and hasn't been commented on much in this thread. (Talk about depth!) As stacked as the Cubs are with young talent in the bigs already. There are still possible starters coming. Almora, Contreras and Underwood all have a shot to be regular position players/in the rotation. That's a fairly remarkable statement considering the players that joined the line-up this season. Never in my lifetime has the Cubs system been more successful or productive. Next year will certainly tell us a lot about the likelihood of this next crop contributing.

Fixed.

Right, so he's a possible middle reliever. We agree. I don't think anyone is saying that any player ranked at the bottom of a top 20 list for a league the size of the NWL should be lauded as the next great thing. He made the list. Lots of guys could've made the list. What's the point of discrediting him? What we don't agree on is that being a 5th year pro matters. He signed when he was 17. If he'd had the chance to go to college and develop there, he'd be a first or second year pro. He's younger than Jordan Brink and about a half year older than Kellogg and Twomey. You're reaching, dude.

Interesting. I thought he was on the list because:

As I understand it, the Zell tax deal is in place until 2019 and will limit what the payroll can be vis a vis the amount of debt the Cubs have. But IFA money isn't affected. Is that accurate or am I off?

Duck the Fodgers. Assuming their make-ups pass muster, go get Armenteros and Gutierrez, Theo...

Depth, man. Keep playing that numbers game, Cubs. Somebody's gonna pop. Add in Underwood, Cease and Clifton and the Cubs may have something or a few somethings that are really good in a couple years.

Numbers wise, he's been really good for a long time (from age 18 on). As I was wont to do a few years back (I've learned a lot since), I got excited about him (with his frame and production being what it was) but once he got to the states, the scouting reports left a bit to be desired. This is the first I've heard that he had a heavy low-90s FB. Everything prior had him 88-89. I was pleasantly surprised to see him on the list. Could be a middle reliever. More if he continues to add velo.

Yeah, De La Rosa heads my list, too. Justin Steele has put up some pretty good numbers. Sands may be more of a late bloomer/guy who has to put it all together. I've read really good things about Alzolay's stuff, but size may move him to the pen. All of this comes with the same caveat you provided in that they're going to need a lot more than a good fastball in full season leagues. Paulino might be more raw, but as a lefty with good velocity, he'll have staying power and should get plenty of chances.

Now that the Cubs have a bona fide ace in Arrieta and a very solid #2 in Lester, yes. That's why I'm excited about the depth even without a lot of high upside guys. I guess Theo and Jed were right in that a team can afford to buy an ace or two (and not have to try to draft and develop them) assuming the rest of the team is financially managed responsibly. If the Cubs can sign an above average #3 this off season and Underwood or Edwards is effective enough to take over Hammel's spot in 2017 with Hendricks filling out the rotation, the Cubs will have a lot of young depth in the system ready to fill in. Johnson and Williams could perform those duties as early as the 2nd half of next year with one or two of Tseng, Markey, Blackburn, Skulina, etc. providing rotation and bullpen depth in 2017. I think Hendricks has been good this year. Better than his traditional numbers suggest and just as good, if not better, and more sustainably so than his standout rookie season. I completely agree that he has a slim margin for error and that makes him prone for a blow up game which is exactly the opposite of what your team is asking (and what you aptly described) from a BOR pitcher. Just keep the team in the game with a solid 5-6 innings. Of his 30 starts this season (that's something that has value in and of itself), 11 of them have had him giving up 4 or more earned runs. Yet, Fangraphs gives him a 3.38 xFIP and a WAR of 2.8. That's an improvement over the 3.92 xFIP he got in his 2.46 ERA rookie year. He's striking out 21.5% this season up from 14.6% last year while walking only 5.9% (well below league avg.) up from 4.7%. His BABIP has normalized after being 30 points below league average the year before, and he has given up the long ball twice as often this year but he's still better than average in that department as well. Even with the slim margin of error, if he keeps performing at this level, he's got be considered a solid #4 much less a 5 going forward, and at 25 years old, you'd expect to be this good or progress over the next few years. His Fangraph's xFIP ranks 21st among qualified starters and 32nd in WAR.

A list at that level could vary wildly 1-20 to be honest. Don't want to come off as too pessimistic sounding about Cease. It's not easy to find a guy with his velocity and the potential to have above average to plus command of the four seam. Needs more innings and an offspeed or two to step up. I think I'm more excited for the 2016 group of A ball arms than the definitely-the-right-direction 2015 group. Expecting relatively bigger system breakouts from Clifton in MB, Kellogg, and Steele next year. Twomey is another one that should do alright. Org depth is definitely way better than what it was and on the way up. Yeah, it's the depth that the club has intentionally worked on building and we will finally have a chance to see if anyone emerges next year in a full season league from the 2014 draft. Of the first draft wave (Johnson, Blackburn & Underwood), Underwood has emerged. From the 2nd group (Zastryzny, Skulina & Clifton), it was Clifton. The 3rd wave is a quite a bit deeper. 2014 brought in Stinnett, Sands, Steele, Cease, Norwood, Williams, Null & Markey. Williams has already popped from that group but his ceiling is BOR. This year will tell us a lot about those guys.

Very much agree, toonster. Not a lot of high upside guys at the moment. Certainly not saying all those I mentioned are worthy of getting excited about. It's more the depth that has me intrigued. The only guys I see having upside right now are Edwards (I think he could still be given a shot at starter after acclimating in the pen for a year or two), Underwood, Cease and Clifton. After Edwards, only Underwood is close enough to being a finished product to get "excited" about, and he's at least 1.5 years away with development left to accomplish. But the depth is good and, for the most part, quite young. And from that, someone might pop. Of Tseng, Steele, Sands, De La Rosa, Paulino and Norwood, none have a current ceiling above MOR, but they all have the talent, stuff, velocity and/or size to pop and surprise. But it's all wait and see. Skulina's velo started to return and he's got good size, but he's a very big question mark and much older than the other guys. He's likely a reliever at the big league level. Markey and Alzolay are likely ticketed for the bullpen due to lack of size. Stinnett? Who knows. There are a lot of question marks, for sure. But the whole idea of the "draft pitchers in volume" approach was to make it a numbers game. Sacrifice the consolidation of talent and upside in one prospect to spread out the risk of injury/failure and hope someone pops. Get enough guys with a chance and the odds increase that someone will. I feel like this coming year will be the first year that that strategy will have a chance to produce some answers to all those question marks. That's what I find most exciting about this group.

Certainly fair. It's all about projection at this level. I'm sure lists will vary widely especially between the top 5-10 guys. I'm happy to hear some scouts value Cease highly enough to place him 2nd. At this stage, it's still very much "we'll see..."

Nice. The Cubs effectively took their 6th round pick in 2014 and traded it for a 1st rounder this year. Now he just needs to stay healthy. I like how patient the Cubs have been with their young arms. As a prospect-o-phile, I get itchy to see what these guys can do at the upper levels, but it's the right thing to do to have the prep pitchers go one level at a time, spending their first partial season in Mesa and their first full season in Short Season A. Keep their innings low and those returning from TJS even lower. For that reason, even though Villone said "sky's the limit next year" for Cease, I wonder if he starts next year in extended spring training, then on to Eugene and, if his performance is good enough, spend the 2nd half in South Bend once the weather's good and warm and college arms like Ryan Kellogg or Preston Morrison move on to Myrtle Beach. If fellow TJS rehabber Erling Moreno's healthy perhaps he starts in Mesa and, if he dominates, moves to Eugene to finish the season. The pitching's coming... Johnson and Williams in Iowa Underwood, Tseng, Markey, Blackburn, Skulina, etc. in Tennessee Clifton, Stinnett, Null, Leal and possibly Norwood in Myrtle Beach De La Cruz, Steele, Sands, Kellogg, Paulino, Alzolay, and eventually Cease in South Bend. #waves

And thanks should also go out to ctcf for filling in. Thank you both for providing so much information and making these discussions possible.

I didn't know Alvarez was available, too. He's an 18-year-old OF/1B with good size (6'4", 190 lbs.)