CubsWin

Right there with you, toonster. Clifton has taking some big steps forward. He and Caratini were my picks to "breakout" this season. Didn't really go out on a limb there, but glad to see they both did well. If it's true that young, developing players that have better 2nd halves than 1st halves are actually progressing as the season goes along, than he may have put a dent in those control issues. In his last 7 starts, he pitched 43.2 IP, walking 6 while striking out 46 and allowing just 28 hits. Hot streak from which he will regress or true progression and improvement? Only time will tell,but I'm leaning toward the latter. On top of questions surrounding control, there were doubts about his ability to pitch deep into games (either due to inefficiency or stamina). His last 9 starts were all 6 innings or longer, so he seems to have answered that as well. He may still wind up a reliever just due to the sheer dearth of job openings in major league rotations. And he'll need to continue to develop an average third pitch, but pitch efficiency and stamina haven't been a problem in the 2nd half this season.

I'm late to the party, but thank you, Raisin, for creating these every day. It's much appreciated.

Galindo was a top 30 IFA in 2013 (MLB's #25) who hit well with power (.278/.356/.462) as a 17-year-old in the VSL with an 8% walk rate and 22% K rate, so he definitely had the swing and miss aspect from the beginning, though 22% isn't out of the ordinary for a power hitter at that age. He missed most of last season due to injury which could explain his slow start (.214/.283/.421) and extremely high K-rate (34%) in the first half (33 games, 138 PAs) of this season. His 2nd half is a different story, however. In his last 32 games & 141 PAs, he's hit .280/.390/.517 with a 22.7% K rate and a 14.9% walk rate. For a 19-year-old in the NWL who lost a lot of development time after missing almost all of the previous season, that's not bad. The quality of his defense and his ultimate position (3B or 1B) is still up in the air, but, for me, the bat likely plays. He's got plenty of developing left to do, especially with contact. With the jump to full season ball, his K% will likely go up next year from his 2nd half numbers unless there's significant development between now next spring, but I'm excited to see how he does in South Bend.

Jeimer is a guy we could do a version of the Rizzo-Cashner with, couldn't we? Find a young starter who has struggled somewhat for him? Archie Bradley maybe? Interesting idea. I'd be down for something like that. Bradley in specific probably wouldn't happen because the D-backs are set at 3B with Jake Lamb for the next 5 years or so and their pitching has been terrible. But a target like Bradley would be nice. No idea if other teams would agree, though.

Smooth fielding? I don't know if every scout/expert agrees with that, but I'll take it from BA! A 22-year-old, "smooth-fielding" 3B hitting .327/.417 /.538 in AAA with a 16.8% K rate and 12.4% walk rate ain't bad. Sure he's hot right now with an oversized BABIP, but those numbers have been compiled over almost 300 PAs. He's set career highs in HRs and doubles this season. Kudos to the Cubs developmental staff and philosophy. I highly doubt, in fact I'm certain, Candelario would not have turned out this good under the Hendry regime.

You're even arguing about the use of the word arguing! I'm sorry. I'm just having a little fun. I don't mean to offend.

This is hilarious. I make the most bland non-statement statement about how ANY 21-year-old in the Carolina League putting up decent numbers MIGHT (as in has a chance of any size) shape up (over the next 3 years of development) into a major league starter and you still feel the need to disagree with it. I don't mind that you disagree...at all. The argument you make is sound. I agree with what you wrote. Of course, I never claimed to believe what you're arguing against. It's just funny to me that you would take the time to disagree when the statement, by design, is so broad it basically makes no claim at all. Homestly you sound like you mind, a lot. The statement wasn't even broad - you specifically said Burks' numbers and totally make a claim lol. Obviously under the vague umbrella of development anyone can be anything their heart desires so long as they work hard and believe in themselves, but I was just pointing out that Burks' numbers in High A have a big hole (his K rate is more than 10% higher than league average!!) that could definitely keep him from a starter's ceiling. I apologise this was an affront and could be viewed as a heated argument. Maybe I could have phrased it in a more friendly sounding fashion like...."Yeah, Burks flashes a little bit of everything on offence, just needs to bring down those Ks" or something. Seriously, it's all good. There was no affront. No apology needed. The statement I made was completely broad, so all encompassing it's basically a non statement. "ANY 21-year-old". "MIGHT shape up". Of course, they might. You don't need to change. This isn't a criticism. I just find it amazing how much you like to argue.

I'm skieptical of that even though I like Burks. His K rate's well above the league average, 21.6% to 19.7%. He's shown some secondary skills with speed, pop, and patience, and will be age appropriate for AA, but that swing and miss is tough to ignore considering this is still a single A level. Caratini didn't have that big hole and on top of it was a switch hitter at a really tough position, so I just find it tough to compare their situations and rougher to buy Burks as having starting potential based on performance. This is hilarious. I make the most bland non-statement statement about how ANY 21-year-old in the Carolina League putting up decent numbers MIGHT (as in has a chance of any size) shape up (over the next 3 years of development) into a major league starter and you still feel the need to disagree with it. I don't mind that you disagree...at all. The argument you make is sound. I agree with what you wrote. Of course, I never claimed to believe what you're arguing against. It's just funny to me that you would take the time to disagree when the statement, by design, is so broad it basically makes no claim at all.

If by Caratini you mean a guy who might shape up into a potential starting ML and break out next year, I'm going Martinez. I may hound Martinez's strikeouts, but relative to league and roster Burks misses more. I like Burks more in a 5th OF kind of way. Another thing I'm considering here is that Caratini was well regarded before his strong season in AA, whereas Burks is a really deep sleeper even among Cubs fans. I don't really think there's anyone as obvious as Caratini was last year, at least right now among full season guys, I guess that is unfortunate. Well, potentially any 21-year-old putting up the numbers Burks is in the Carolina League might shape up into a major league starter. But I wasn't comparing his chances of doing that to Caratini's. I was simply saying his numbers could take a similar jump.

Burks is my pick for a breakout along the lines of Caratini next season.

[expletive] pitchers. We have a somewhat patched together staff putting up historically great run prevention numbers. We don't need to dump assets for some proven starter panacea guy. Between the FO and Bosio and whatever else is at play, we have consistently been able to do this for years now. And with our defense it only makes even more sense. And "object" Ha! It took me a bit to figure out what the "And object" was all about. Thanks for catching that. You make a good point about horsefeathers pitchers and what the Cubs have been able to do with Bosio. It has been absolutely amazing. I just wonder how much longer they can continue to find diamonds in the rough and polish them up. I also wonder what happens if they don't re-sign Arrieta and Lackey and Hammel leave (as they should) after 2017. They're gonna need somebody (maybe a couple of somebodies) who's really good. If money is no...object...then there won't be much of a problem except for the back end of those FA contracts. The ideal is to somehow acquire (via IFA, draft or trade) a younger, controllable starter entering his prime. Injury is less likely, performance drop off is less likely, performance improving is more likely, future cost control, value, etc. It's possible, though highly improbable, that someone already in the organization could develop fast enough to make an impact by 2018. The draft won't likely get someone to the bigs by 2018, especially someone really good with the Cubs picking at the end of round one. Otani is an...option...but no one is sure whether he'll be made available by 2018. Teheran fits the bill pretty well. And if Bosio and the Cubs brass identify somebody like Gausman or whomever they think they can polish up, I'm all for that, too. But I'm also willing to pay the price to package some of the assets the Cubs have to get someone really good to extend the window beyond next year. I like what the Cubs did last off season. They were aggressive and recognized now is the time to pounce. As much as it hurt to give up Gleyber for a few months of Chapman, the Cubs signaled they are all in yet again. Maybe if they win a world series this year and/or next, they'll be more patient and allow 2018 to have a lesser staff while they develop their in house options. But the offense is set to be really good for a long time. If they don't do what it takes to keep the pitching really good too, they risk squandering a golden opportunity that they worked really hard to build. I don't see that happening. I look forward to see what path they take.

I just think the time is now for the Cubs and soon to get a really high quality starter, the more proven the better. During the rebuild was the time to take a gamble. Now is the time to go spend for someone the FO identifies as their guy, especially if he can be gotten without disrupting the big league's core. I'm totally down for simply buying them on the FA market, but you run the great risk of the back end of those contract years being very empty and turning into the Detroit Tigers. If money is no option for the Cubs moving forward, great. But if it is, trading for the right arm is the next best option. These types of pitchers aren't a myth. They exist. It's just that they're highly sought after. The right situation has to come along, though. Hamels was a great example. A team needing to rebuild that has a top notch pitching asset (White Sox, etc.). It could also be a team that has built around pitching and needs offense like the Mets, Braves or Rays. Theo, Jed and Jason have earned my trust. I don't know enough to identify the right guy, but there's a list of arms from which he might emerge.

The Candy Man is up to his old tricks. 3-3 with a HR and 2 doubles. He's already got a new career high in HRs with his 12th and added his 13th tonight. He's one away from tying his career high in 2B (35) after getting his 33rd and 34th tonight. Should come up to bat at least once more... 10 games left after this one. He's one away from tying his career mark in triples (5) as well.

South Bend is facing Yadier Alvarez. He's put up some really good numbers this year. Man, I wanted the Cubs to sign him. horsefeathers the Doyers. Going to the game tomorrow. Hope they sweep the [expletive].

Yeah, that's kind of what I was envisioning. Not Trout or Stanton because I had pitching on my mind (and I highly doubt a package like that would bring back 1 of the top 10 players in baseball), but a young TOR guy with team control would be great for the Cubs going forward. Fernandez specifically? I doubt that gets it done. It might be close. I just don't know enough to say definitively. But if I can get someone similar for a group of talented spare parts and prospects without disrupting my major league core or including Jimenez, I'd do it for the right guy. I don't know if it can be done, but I'd be on the look out for the right opportunity to pop up for sure. The idea of obtaining this young, controllable TOR arm (or even MOR arm) seems just as fictitious and unattainable as acquiring Trout or Stanton. Those guys hardly exist and when they do teams keep them or trade them for known commodities not other prospects. Also pitchers suck, never deplete the farm system for them. Guess I'm just reaching for the dream then. Keep hope alive.

Thanks, David. Always a fun retrospective read. From that top 20 list, 3 were traded for Chapman and Montgomery. Chapman's a short term dominant asset who will definitely impact the Cubs chances of having home field throughout the playoffs and possibly winning it all. Montgomery is a long term asset. And both have been playing well since coming over. If the reason why you develop minor leaguers is to help the big league club win, this has to be considered progress of a sort. 3 guys (Contreras, Edwards and Almora) graduated. That's progress. 7 guys (Happ, Clifton, De La Cruz, Jimenez, Cease, Candelario and Caratini) either performed well and got promoted or had varying degrees of a breakout season. That's progress. 4 guys (Williams, Kellogg, Dewees and Hudson) did about what they were expected to do with some a little better and some little worse. And only 3 guys from Sickels top 20 had really bad seasons (Underwood, Johnson and Sands). That's not what I remember it being like before Theo, Jed and Jason took over. If one guy graduated, we were lucky and even then that guy might not perform well in the bigs. It seemed like the top prospects would regress as they reached the upper levels quite often. And the pop up prospect from the year before often was just a flash in the pan.

If Paredes keeps this up, he might make my top 10...

I see it now on the front page. Still sticky-ing this might be a good idea. I'd like to make some player requests, Tim, if that's okay. First, we can remove Contreras, Almora, Edwards, Torres, McKinney, Vogelbach, Blackburn and Crawford from the list. It's probably time to add guys like Thomas Hatch, Tyson Miller, Bailey Clark, Dakota Mekkes, Erling Moreno, Manuel Rondon, Matt Rose, Rob Zastryzny, Jose Rosario, Javier Assad, Brailyn Marquez, Faustino Carrera, Hector Garcia, Aramis Ademan, Jonathan Sierra, Yonthan Perlaza, Miguel Amaya, Kwang Min-Kwon, (...and any other 2015 IFA you like).

Maybe we should sticky this. Or is there another link I'm not seeing?

Not that they should bring it back, but a package including all those guys better bring back Stanton, Trout (obviously Eloy and others would have to go) or Fernandez if they are all going in 1 deal. Yeah, that's kind of what I was envisioning. Not Trout or Stanton because I had pitching on my mind (and I highly doubt a package like that would bring back 1 of the top 10 players in baseball), but a young TOR guy with team control would be great for the Cubs going forward. Fernandez specifically? I doubt that gets it done. It might be close. I just don't know enough to say definitively. But if I can get someone similar for a group of talented spare parts and prospects without disrupting my major league core or including Jimenez, I'd do it for the right guy. I don't know if it can be done, but I'd be on the look out for the right opportunity to pop up for sure.

Yeah, I've been thinking about trades lately. I wonder what a package of Soler, Happ, Candelario and one of the arms (Cease/De La Cruz/Clifton) could bring back. Probably something pretty damn good, hopefully with 3+ years of team control.

Obviously I was referring to De La Cruz, Cease and Clifton and they did not disappoint pitching 15.2 innings allowing 9 hits, 1 run (earned), 6 BB, 23 Ks with 14 GO/2 AO. But it actually turned out to be 5 of the better pitching prospects in the same day with Marquez and Carrera going as well. The Cubs haven't had 5 arms worthy of following in a while much less all throwing on the same day. When you add in their numbers: 26.1 IP, 17 H, 3 ER 8 BB, 33 K, 24 GO/2 AO.

Arguably the top 3 pitching prospects on the same day. Nice. Collmenter, Tseng and Peralta are awesome!

I think mostly it was you confused "getting to..." with "already there" or some equivalent of. Wow. You must've aced condescension class. You can go back and re-read what I wrote if you want, but I'm moving on.

Well said, craig. I don't expect much from Almora offensively either. A .735-.740 OPS I expect would be his ceiling, and he's got development left to achieve before he'd get to that level. I also thought that if he'd stayed up his numbers would continue to drop. I expect his rookie season, if it is indeed next year, would be a fairly poor one at the plate and leave a lot of fans wanting, but I don't think he's done getting better yet.