CubsWin

Pretty good outings from Underwood, De La Cruz and Cease tonight.

From the "don't look now" file, Dillon Maples started off the season with an unsurprising outing. Two-thirds of an inning, 2 hits, 1 run (earned), 3 walks, no Ks with 4 strikes out of 16 pitches thrown. Since then, however, he's been Myrtle Beach's best and, gulp, most consistent reliever next to Craig Brooks. HIs line for his last 9 appearances reads: 16.1 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 26 K, 0.92 WHIP, 1.10 ERA while throwing 66% of his pitches for strikes (150 out of 228). Hitters are batting less than .175 against him during that stretch, and he's allowed 3.3 BB/9 while K'ing 14.3 per 9. Talk about coming back from the dead. Maples turns 25 on May 9th. His stats are fairly meaningless given his level. I'm not saying he should be promoted soon, but I'm interested to see what he can do against AA hitters. And THAT is something I never thought I'd be writing this season.

It has less to do with what isn't available and more to do with what is. The way I see it is that right now the consensus *best* shot at a homegrown, cheap ace starter will be 4 years removed from TJ surgery next year, has plenty of issues with control and command, and will still have to move through AA and AAA. In the grand scheme of TOR . Clifton's been more competent and good rather than great throughout the minors, doesn't have the skillset barring some kind of dramatic and unforeseeable leap forward. He checks the boxes as far as being in shape, staying healthy, logging the innings, but command and control issues bring him down too. I'm out on him too as a TOR guy on a perennial WS contender, and he's got alot going for him as pitching prospects go especially in this system. de la Cruz is coming off missing almost a full season to an arm injury and also has his own fastball command issues that leave his ball up and home runnable. I've said even when I was the high guy on de la Cruz here that he was more Ivan Nova than...iunno, Adam Wainwright, and am still about there with him as far as overall ceiling. These are the top guys of a sordid lot in full season ball. Meanwhile, all the info that *is* available about these IFAs is very positive except the Albertos injury. Even then Albertos' injury was a non-surgery issue, which soundly beats the alternative. That he threw any stateside pro innings at all at 17 puts him well ahead of the majority at his age. He has 1+ year to throw 20.2 innings, which would match Dylan Cease's innings total through age 19. Brailyn Marquez's fastball was rated by Kiley McDaniel, just before being hired by a ML club, as having one of the 3 highest ceilings among the 2015 IFAs he ranked for FanGraphs. Marquez was one of the handful hardest throwers in the class, and easily the hardest throwing LH. Carrera was a star CF and SP for Mexico's junior international teams. He and Marquez had two of the more successful age 17 debuts in time for the Cubs, especially on the pitching front. Ocampo and Perez a notch or three below those guys, who are a notch below Albertos, but Ocampo especially flashed some skills last summer. I'm not *actually* all that optimistic about any pitcher in the system as far as finding a playoff/WS/first division/TOR/workhorse etc caliber SP. I also like Mills more than Butler. I too like Mills. The upside probably isn't as high as Butler, but I like his profile. I should've included him in the group of Clifton and Butler as those most likely to make an impact, though probably a limited one. I sure would like for both Mills and Butler to get healthy soon. I need to see more of them over time. You didn't include Albertos in your original list of the 4 IFA pitchers you liked as having the most potential impact. If you had, your comment would've made more sense to me. The fact that you used the word "potentially" impactful, is what makes me go with Cease. I agree with all the worrying factors you mentioned with him. But, for me, if you're talking "potential" impact, that means ceiling. If all things go right, (fill in the blank) will make the greatest impact. Perhaps, you used that word as meaning most likely to reach some sort of TOR ceiling. If so, I get your reasoning. I don't agree yet. Too many unknowns for me, but I see where you're coming from.

Do you have a summer home in the Dominican Republic? You sure are high on those guys even though they've yet to throw a pitch in a stateside game. So long as we're talking the most potentially impactful, I'll go with Cease. He currently throws 5-8 mph faster than any of the 4 you mentioned with a plus hammer curve he commands well. To date, we've seen no reason to believe any of those guys have the potential to develop stuff to close to that. But hey, the less we know about a guy, the more we can dream on their potential, so more power to ya. If we're talking about the greatest probability of making an impact, I'll go with Butler or Clifton. But I see their impact as being somewhat limited.

Longenhagen said something along the lines of some scouts thinking he can handle center. oh nice: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-425/ https://streamable.com/4215o He also won the Gold Glove for LFers in the Carolina League last year.

This might be the only time I've seen someone complain about an .850 OPS. It's completely backed up by the numbers too. ?

It happens sometimes(see Aaron Sanchez), but far more often than not it never comes. This is why Cease's best utility to the organization will come in trade. I have no problem trading him depending on what it brings back, of course. I'm all for shooting for the moon with the big league club being where it is. That said, if he does improve his control in the 2nd half, he'll bring even more back. :good:

That's the question, isn't it. Time will tell. He certainly is young enough and his previous workload has been limited enough that it's understandable his control would be lagging behind. It's certainly an issue. If he doesn't have a lower walk rate in the 2nd half, it becomes more of a concern going forward.

South Bend with Hudson and Cease going. Interested to see how they fare. I hope they can get the games in. Forecast looks pretty wet, though the afternoon has the lowest chance of precip according to the current outlook.

Speaking of slow starts, because his overall numbers are so good we may have forgotten that Candelario started the year striking out 7 times against 0 walks in his first 5 games while slashing .200/.200/.650. In his next 16 games he's walked as often as he's struck out (14/14) and has 8 walks with only 6 Ks in his last 10. We rightfully looked suspiciously at Jeimer's AAA numbers last year after he'd struggled in AA prior to his promotion. He hit 22 doubles, 3 triples and 9 HRs with 38 walks and 53 Ks in 264 AB with a ridiculous slash of .333/.417/.542. We were all asking will the real Candelario please stand up? Well thru his first 72 AB this season, he's on pace for 37 doubles, 7 triples and 11 HRs in the same amount of ABs while slashing .306/.432/.625 with 51 walks and 77 Ks. Keep in mind though that his Ks will likely be less due to the uncharacteristic start with that stat. Obviously, 72 ABs is a small sample and his power numbers will likely regress. In fact, he has already showed signs of cooling off, but so far he's picking up where he left off last season and lending credence to his AAA numbers from 2016.

Zagunis got off to a terrible start to the season K'ing 12 times in his first 31 AB and slashing .097/.243/.129 in those 9 games. In the 11 games that followed, he's K'd 8 times against 9 walks in 35 AB with 5 HRs, 14 RBI while hitting .314. Let's hope he's more of the latter than the former...

On upside and the ability to play a true CF, I'd still want Rashad Crawford in a trade over Burks, but in the early going Crawford is hitting .186/.294/.305 in AA vs. Burks' .314/.429/.486 who is a year younger and at the same level. I expect Burks to regress a bit and Crawford to pick it up, but if Crawford struggles this season, the Cubs may have kept the right guy (not that the Yankees were ever reportedly interested in Burks).

I can't believe I'm writing this, but don't look know... here comes Dillon Maples. It's just 4 good outings, but after pitching very well in minor league spring training, Maples (who amazingly is still just 24) has strung together 7.1 innings giving up 1 run on 3 hits, 2 walks while striking out 13. That's a 1.23 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, 2.45 BB/9 and 15.95 K/9. He threw 104 pitches in those 4 appearances, 69 of which were strikes (66%). By all accounts, he's throwing mid-90s with his still plus curve. He has had consistent trouble controlling or commanding any of his pitches until apparently this spring. I'm not counting on anything from Maples after just 4 good outings, but talk about coming out of the woodwork and back from the dead. IF he can continue his improved control, he'd be a welcome addition to the Cubs increasing stable of relief prospects. P. Johnson Pena Markey Torrez McNeil Araujo Brooks ...Maples? Honestly, I think most of the best relief prospects are currently starters. Guys like Underwood, Stinnett, Paulino, Steele, Alzolay and M. Rondon really make this pool of prospects deep.

Totally intriguing, but I can't see the Yankees letting him go without a bidding war. He won't come cheap. Even though he's one of the youngest arms available, if the Cubs are going to spend big, I might want someone with a better, healthier track record. As with most things, it all comes down to price. I know the Cubs will have plenty to spend this coming off season, but does anyone have a good handle on what they can afford to give a pitcher in his 4th, 5th and 6th years (if it comes to that) without getting in trouble with salary tax limit? If it is a big money guy, front loading the contract will make a lot of sense. I'll be a bit surprised if they keep Pineda. They're going to reset their LT next year. I fully expect them to be way, way under for their run at Bryce and Machado. Ah, yes. Good point. Didn't think of that. Though I thought they'd already got under the LT.

Totally intriguing, but I can't see the Yankees letting him go without a bidding war. He won't come cheap. Even though he's one of the youngest arms available, if the Cubs are going to spend big, I might want someone with a better, healthier track record. As with most things, it all comes down to price. I know the Cubs will have plenty to spend this coming off season, but does anyone have a good handle on what they can afford to give a pitcher in his 4th, 5th and 6th years (if it comes to that) without getting in trouble with salary tax limit? If it is a big money guy, front loading the contract will make a lot of sense.

It really would be great, because then you're going into 2018 looking like Lester,Hendricks,Mongomery,Butler and that open slot can be filled via FA. The Cubs would get to hang onto all of Eloy,Happ,Cease etc. As of now, they'd have their choice of (ages as of opening day 2018): Arrieta (32) Cashner (31) - For old time's sake... Chatwood (28) A. Cobb (30) Darvish (31) Hellickson (31) Lackey (39) F. Liriano (34) L. Lynn (31) Pineda (29) T. Ross (31) H. Santiago (30) Tillman (30) And possibly: Tanaka (29) - If he opts out Otani (23) - If he comes over The obvious target is Otani, but let's count him out for purposes of this discussion. Assuming no hometown discounts and considering the Cubs' payroll considerations with the young guns hitting arbitration in the next year or two, who would you (everybody) like to sign most and why?

Everybody is raving about Ademan; especially Arguello. Legit defensive SS with a good hit tool. This is the first I've seen anyone say he has easy power though. That's exciting. He's sounding more and more like Gleyber Torres. Probably a little better defensively, similar hit tool, not as advanced as an approach at the plate at the same age but with some power.

Not to toot my own horn, but he was my pick to breakout this year in a similar way to how Caratini did last season. So, I agree he rarely gets a mention, but I can assure you it's not never... :wink:

Cease very likely done after 6 innings (the 1st time he's done that in his career) and over 90 pitches. If so, final line: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K.

I think it was Raisin who pointed out Candelario's poor cold weather April's in the past. April 2016 in AA: .203/.347/.342 April 2015 in A+: .250/.299/.333 April 2014 in A+: .213/.351/.375 April 2013 in A-: .229/.356/.313 Spot on, CR! So far this April: .326/.408/.791. Corner turned? Still half a month to go to get the full answer, but probably, yeah. Outside of Giants 1st rounder Christian Arroyo who has played a couple of games at 3B this season, from what I can tell Candelario is the youngest 3B in the PCL right now and no one is off to a better start.

Candelario with another double, his 7th, and another RBI, his 16th. This is Iowa's 10th game of the season. Jeimer has 12 hits on the year, 11 of them have been for extra bases.

Ryan Williams, Williams Perez. At least MiLB.com got 50% of the starter's name right. Someone find the Anchorman gif. 60% of the time, it works...every time.

For me, the Cubs minor league pitching situation can be summed up in 3 words "interesting question marks". Of course, there's always the popular notion that all pitching prospects are question marks, but I don't buy into that language. They're plenty of good pitchers in the majors and at one point in time they were all prospects. Some teams have more success than others in scouting and developing them, and I think that's what this discussion is really about. Tracking the Cubs results in doing exactly that. And I agree, the jury is largely still out. It's not surprising that the Cubs pitching prospects are, for the most part, prep draftees and IFAs since the Cubs prioritized college bats over college arms in the first round. College pitchers have a longer track record and the good ones usually go early. It's also not surprising then that the jury is still out as prep arms take longer to develop into big league ready arms. Clifton, Cease, De La Cruz, Albertos (the Cubs top 4 pitching prospects per MLB) all fall into this category. Of those, only De La Cruz is over 21 (he turned 22 a month and 10 days ago). Underwood, Steele, Hudson, Moreno and Marquez follow. The average age of those 9 prospects is 20 years and 266 days. Even the college arms are still fairly young. Hatch is 22 and Miller is 21. No wonder the jury is still out. This year should tell us a lot, though. I, for one, am very excited to see how each of those guys develops.

He's listed on Tennessee's 7-day DL. No word as to the malady. davell, I too would like to see him move to the pen. That's where he spent the most time in college and there's a decent chance he adds velo if/when he makes the move to the pen. I'd like to see how his stuff would play in that role.

Interesting pitching day following Cease and Steele doing well. Also, Eloy news from AZ Phil...