CubsWin

Yeah, Burks wouldn't make my top ten either. He'd be in the 11-20 though. It's early, but for right now, my top 10 probably sits at: 1. Jimenez 2. Happ 3. Candelario 4. Cease 5. De La Cruz 6. Clifton 7. Caratini 8. Zagunis 9. Amaya 10. Albertos

Tim, thanks for putting this rankings page together and for everything you do with NSBB. Is the plan to still use this tool to compile an overall NSBB top prospect list? Also, it would be great if you could add (and subtract) some names to/from the list of possibles when you have time. Tyler Skulina, Donnie Dewees, Jonathan Martinez, Jeremy Null and Armando Rivero are no longer in the organization, though Rivero could be returned by the Braves at some point this season. I would like to see Alec Mills, Charcer Burks, Craig Brooks, Jhonny Pereda, Zack Short, David Bote and, yes, Dillon Maples added to the list. Thanks again!

Jeimer Candelario maintained an OBP over .400 for 28 straight games. It now stands at .399. Trade him. No, really. Trade him.

In ExST news, Miguel Amaya had a triple, a single, 2 walks, a sac fly, scored twice and drove in 3. Oh, he also threw out the only guy stupid enough to try to steal a base against him. Not a bad day at the office. Dude turned 18 in March. Another 18 year old, at least for the next 2 days, RHP Hector Garcia threw 3 scoreless innings allowing 2 hits, no walks while striking out 4. According to BR, Hector weighs 157 lbs. Someone give him one of Adam Shaheen's burritos. Man amongst boys, 6'4", 235 lb. former Boise State linebacker, Joey Martarano got on base in all 5 of his plate appearances walking once, hitting a double, 2 singles and getting hit by a pitch. He's fine. Can't say the same for the ball, however. Martarano turns 23 in a couple months.

Yep! And so far so good. 6 BB (2 intentional) against 5 Ks in 38 PAs. SSS, of course, but thats a 15.8% BB rate and a 13.1% K rate.

Uh oh, Kellogg gives up a HR to the 1st batter of the game.

Eloy not in the line up for Myrtle Beach tonight.

[tweet] [/tweet] Zagunis also left the game earlier. He fouled one off his foot and was in considerable pain, stayed in the game and even got on base but left after that half inning. It was a bit more violent than Dylan Heuer describes. At no point did Caratini camp under it. It was a little, rather low pop fly hit directly to the pitcher's mound. Pitchers are taught to give way to the fielder, so Rosscup backed off. Caratini was running full speed toward the mound when the ball dropped right where Rosscup had been standing. After the ball dropped, Caratini runs across the pitcher's mound and as he steps onto the wet grass on the 3B side of it, his left foot slips and he rolls his ankle. It looked as if all his weight for a split second was on the outside of his left ankle with his foot turned completely on it's side. He immediately grabbed it and was writhing in pain, unable to hold still for about 20-30 seconds.

I like him. He's good defensively (won the GG for LF in the Carolina League last year) and has shown he can play some CF but isn't a world beater out there. He only had about 150 PAs before getting injured, but I think the bat's for real. Then again, I'm a little higher on him than probably most. I picked him to breakout this year. My expectation was a .275/.385/.435ish slash this season. He started off hot and is currently better than that. I see a 4th OFer/2nd division starter ceiling for him. He injured himself running into the wall on a well hit ball that wound up as an inside the park HR. I hope he's not seriously hurt. It didn't looked that bad when it happened as he finished the inning in CF. It looked like it could've been a concussion. Have you heard anything on the specifics?

You're welcome, craig. One change I should've made to what I wrote is using the word control instead of command. I would say he shows good control of his 92-94 sinker. He was consistently around the plate, threw it often for strikes and painted the edges of the zone several times but he wasn't spotting it at will. If he continues to get ground balls and Ks while putting together good 2-3 inning relief appearances for the next month or two, perhaps we'll get a chance to see what he can do against a higher level of competition.

Very high K rate as a reliever in college (Michigan State I believe). Not a late round gem in my mind, but an intriguing pick in that he seemed to be a guy who could get swings and misses as a pro. So far that's held true in Low A, but that's not saying much. He's more deceptive than powerful (FB usually around 92), but I don't really care how you get guys out, just that you do and Ks are valuable especially in relief when you may be entering with runners on base.

Piggybacking on the Robinson discussion, another player who's emerging as a "prove it at every level" guy Is Tyler Peyton. He's a 23-year-old, 6'3" 200 lbs., righty who was drafted in the 29th round out of Iowa. He was a two-way player in college and was named a 3rd-team All-American in Div. 1 baseball his junior year as a utility player so he's got some athleticism. That good body control seemingly helps him repeat his mechanics and thus have solid command/control. He was solid as a starter in Iowa posting ERAs in the mid-3s his junior and senior years. He didn't pitch professionally last year, so the first I'd heard of him was a report by Arguello from fall instructs where he said he was throwing in the mid-90s. He pitched well in ExST games this spring: Add on his 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K, 10/0 GO/AO from his first 2 appearances in South Bend and he's got a season line of: 8 G, 18.2 IP, 12 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 22 K, 0.48 ERA, 0.75 WHIP with 22 GO to 8 AO. As has been discussed, don't make too much of those gaudy numbers. He's 23 and facing Low-A ball hitters. But he did strike out Vlad Jr. I watched his 1st appearance in South Bend, and he was always around the plate. When he missed, he missed low. Good command of a sinker at 92-94 consistently according to the South Bend play-by-play announcer that would run in on right-handed batters. The stuff is nothing special, but he's not a crafty mid-to-high 80s guy like Pugliese as he can hit his spots pretty well at 92-94. The sinker leads the way, but he is sporadically mixing in a change, curve and slider. They all need improvement but aren't terrible at this point. If he can improve his secondaries, he may be able to "prove it at every level". Just another name to follow at this point.

Totally agree, toonster. Obviously, we all know it's harder to get guys out as you face better, more experienced hitters at each level as a player moves up. But as I've watched games on MiLB.com this year, this has come into an even clearer focus. There are just so many either young inexperienced hitters or guys who aren't very talented in Low-A that being a 23-year-old college arm is a big advantage. The physical maturity and experience alone will have you get guys out even if the stuff is middling. Ergo, the "prove it at every level" label. Now if you have a plus-plus pitch and good FB command (like Hendricks), your chances of "proving it" get a lot higher. I haven't heard that Robinson has any such pitch, but the command is at least decent. What I learned from following Hendricks is you don't need a mid-90s FB for your stuff to play as you move up. That was always the scouts knock on him in reports. But his extreme K/BB ratio coupled with low BAA told a different story. When that ratio and BAA were still good in AA and AAA, I got excited. Unfortunately, the only similarity between Robinson and Hendricks appears to be that they both went to Dartmouth.

Yeah, he's been pretty consistently good with just 1 bad start (his 2nd) out of 7. I wish I knew what his stuff was like and how well it would play up at the big league level. Obviously, it's not overpowering in any way. With Butler already up and Mills still dealing with an ankle, Frankoff looks like he's first in line for the Iowa shuttle right now should the need arise. 42.2 IP, 29 H, 7 HR, 13 BB, 46 K, 3.16 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .186 BAA, 1.68 G0/AO. 6'5", 210 lbs. 28 years old.

I think there is partial installation of Trackman equipment in minor league parks, but the big thing is that the teams own that information as opposed to MLB as a whole for big league stadiums. So the data is getting partially collected, but it's not making its way to the public sphere. Ah that makes sense. Yeah I saw someone in the comment section on a Cubs Den article mention that Maples curve was measured at 2900 rpm and I was like, how the hell does he know that... I hope we have installed something of that nature in our parks. You would think it would be very helpful in trades as well as your own player evaluation. It was actually 3100 rpm and he knew it because it was mentioned by the Pelicans broadcasters. That said, I sure would love Statcast info on a regular basis for minor leaguers. I got the MiLB subscription this year and some of the announcers have been mentioning exit velocity for some hits. I remember one of them said Eloy had hit a ground ball at 103 mph.

Cubs DFA'd Jake Buchanan to make room for Rosscup.

Great points, TT. Thanks! I agree with you especially as the player reaches AA and AAA and are age appropriate or younger. As always, there are exceptions.

slicing out the best possible sample of a guy and there he's still not striking anybody out / controlling the strike zone kind of seems like damning with faint praise kind of situation Fair enough. It does happen to be the best possible example but it also is his latest 4 starts. If he had two good starts followed by 2 crappy ones followed by 2 good ones, I would be less optimistic. Consistency is important and stringing 4 good starts consecutively gets my attention. Couple that with 2 dominant starts in ExST before being promoted and the fact that his 2 crappy starts were his first two in full season ball and it indicates that maybe those ExST performances were less outlier more predictive. As far as the Ks, I get it. I love Ks, but that's not Hudson's game. If he had induced 39 ground outs vs. 8 fly ball outs in his last 4 starts, the lack of strikeouts becomes a lot more worrisome. Not trying to change your mind on him. Just stating why I'm encouraged.

Zagunis in May: .295/.442/.492 13 BB, 17 K

It's just one game, but Wladimir Galindo made several nice plays at 3B yesterday. His defense has been questioned, but he was impressive and his arm is plenty strong enough. He showed good athleticism and quick reactions on two plays in particular. One was a terrible hop on a sharply hit ground ball where he spun and snagged it and another where he leaped high in the air to get a line drive I thought was a sure base hit to end a Lugnuts rally. The bat is okay for a guy who will be 20 all season in his first taste of full season ball. He drove a ball opposite field high off the wall for an RBI double yesterday. He's dropped his K-rate from 28.6% last year to around 23% so far this season but the walks are down, too. He's hitting .290/.330/.420 so far despite slumping over his last 10 games. He'll be an interesting one to watch this year.

One of the things I still look for with pitchers (that started back in the Sunday sports section minor league reports days) was less hits than innings pitched (preferably a lot less), more than a K per inning and at least a 3-to-1 K to BB ratio. (That's changing a bit now, though, as the Cubs in particular seem to be valuing pitching to contact more and more), but that trifecta is still a good barometer. Obviously, WHIP, ERA, FIP and xFIP are solid indicators as well and largely reflect that trifecta. For hitters, I feel that BB/K ratio is one of the most predictive stats out there. If you don't walk a lot, you better not strike out a lot. If a guy has a good slash at the lower levels but Ks a lot without a decent amount of walks, it's rare that they'll continue to have similar success as they move up. Without the ability to be selectively aggressive at the plate, a good hit tool and raw power doesn't matter much. From all reports, a key fundament in "The Cubs Way" is controlling the strike zone for both hitters and pitchers. Of course, those guys figured this out long before I did...

Bryan Hudson in May: 4 G, 22 IP, 17 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 HR, 8 BB, 13 K, 1.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .215 BAA, 39 GO - 8 AO AZ Phil reported that he had two excellent outings in a row at ExST before his promotion. Looks like his 1st two starts in April (in which he went 8 IP, 9 ER, 6 BB, 2 K) might just have been nerves and/or adjusting to a new level. We'll see...

Thanks, Dave. I agree scouting reports carry so much more weight than stats do at least for the younger prospects. At some point, and it's the same for me - AA -, performance starts to become more of the arbiter. And even then, it doesn't matter a hill of beans what you hit in AAA if you can't translate it to the bigs. How one's ability translates to the bigs is probably where I'm weakest in my knowledge because it's all scouting report-based and specialized understanding. A scouting report can tell us a lot more than his stats do. And watching the game can tell you even more. A guy can throw 92 and hit his spot while the other more highly touted prospect is throwing 97 but is over the middle of the plate. The guy throwing 97 is blowing it by these A ball guys, but if he leaves it there in the bigs, they're going to kill it. It's one thing to see that the guy hit a 2-run double and has 25 doubles on the year. It's quite another to know that he did it against a 96mph FB off the inside corner, was able to bring his hands in, still get the barrel on the ball and had worked the count to 2-2 by laying off two breaking balls down and away to even get the opportunity. And he didn't just lay off of those breaking balls, he spat on him. Didn't even flinch. That's why I got the MiLB.com subscription this year. I wish the video quality was better, but I've still learned a lot. Thanks for your response.

Like many of you that post here, I've been following Cubs prospects as closely as I could for a long time, about 30 years now. Access to information has changed a lot over that span. Used to be you'd have to wait until the Sunday sports section to get the minor league stats for each level once a week. Outside of a Baseball America or Sporting News subscription, following how those stats progressed throughout the year was the best and, often, only information you had to go on. If there was a down on the farm section during the game's broadcast you'd definitely turn up the volume. If they brought in a member of the front office during a rain delay, I'd always stay and watch on the odd chance they'd talk about the prospects in the system. That all changed with the internet. Every year there was greater access to information and stats, and chat boards became a thing. Then there were new stats to learn about. (I was late to that game and learned a lot from the posters on this site about sabermetrics). Now we have just about every stat we could ask for at our fingertips and can even find recent scouting reports on some players. But I'm still influenced by some of the basic truths I learned from the days of reading the sports section. 1. Players who have the right stuff can, at any point, breakthrough seemingly out of the blue. 2. The really talented players don't have to put up great numbers at each level in order to be promoted so long as their make-up can handle adversity. 3. The younger the prospect and the lower the level, the less meaningful the stats were. 4. Especially for younger prospects (21 and younger usually), their season long stats aren't as telling as the context under which they happened. Hot or Cold Starts Don't Mean Much I'm always skeptical of hot starts or cold starts to a season or the first few games following promotion to a new level. Candelario's hot start to this season only took on meaning for me when it continued on for several weeks. The same went for Contreras' hot start in AA in 2015. That hot start actually never stopped. He was consistently that good all year long. Out of nowhere. Conversely, Gleyber Torres started last season hitting .179/.289/.308 in April (just under 100 PAs). He actually started to turn it on April 22nd and never looked back. Hot Streaks Can Be Telling Hot streaks are a little different, especially in the minors. Obviously, consistent, good-to-great play is preferable, but having a player play at a high level over an extended period of time shows what he is capable of. I'm talking about having a good-to-great month, not just a week or two. If that player returns to earth, fine. Perhaps the league adjusted. Perhaps they got out of their game a bit and started believing the hype about themselves. Perhaps it's a bit of both with regression to the norm as far as luck is concerned mixed in. But at least they showed themselves (and others) what they're capable of. For Younger Prospects the 2nd Half Is Often More Indicative Most minor leaguers are generally young prospects who are still learning and developing, getting off to a bad start over the first 6-8 weeks (especially the first time thru a given level) doesn't scare me off given that they have talent. In this way, the player's performance over the 2nd half of the season, especially if they're 21 or younger, usually carries more weight for me than the 1st half. Prospects need innings/at bats in order to develop. If they're young, at a new level and progress as the season goes along, it makes a ton of sense to think that who they've become over the course of that season is more indicative of the type of prospect they are than their season long numbers would suggest. Conversely, if they hit better in the 1st half and struggled consistently in the 2nd half, that young player probably isn't as good as their season totals might suggest. There are exceptions to all these rather general applications, of course. I'm very interested to see how you guys interpret stats as the season wears along. This is just how I do it. I continue to learn from the great posters on this board. Feel free to disagree and share your points of view.

Bump Wills