CubsWin

On top of the rather surprising performance from Steele, good news from Mesa where another pitcher who struggled last season threw a gem.

I get the argument, but good young pitching exists. It's not a myth. It's a myth because the youth doesn't do much of anything for you. There is nothing even resembling a semblance of certainty that you're getting any long term value out of them even when they pan out. I feel just as comfortable that a good 30 year old pitcher will give me a good 2-3 years as I would a good 24 year old (and little to nothing as far as certainty goes beyond that). It's not youth for youth's sake. It's the ability to get a pitcher just entering his prime (or thereabouts) who is still on the upswing and has multiple years of control left at a decent monetary cost. I agree, youth by itself doesn't do much of anything. As I said, I get the argument. I understand the risks, and I like the way the Cubs have gone about obtaining their pitching thus far. Letting other teams take on most of the risk as the pitcher is coming up through the minors and getting established in the bigs is smart. The problem is in order to get those 2-3 years out of a really good 30 year old pitcher you have to pay top dollar for 6-7 years. The risk exists on both sides of the equation whether it be in declining performance and health as the pitcher ages or in not fully developed potential and health with a younger starter. You're risking money on the one hand and prospect talent on the other. Assuming your team has a need, at some point, the question becomes a matter of which resource can you afford to deplete. The Cubs will have a good amount of money to spend this off-season, but how long-term the contract can be is another concern. Reportedly, the Cubs have offered and are comfortable with giving Arrieta big money over 4 years. But he wants 6 or 7. With Bryant, Russell and Hendricks hitting arbitration in 2018 and Schwarber & Baez in 2019, the Cubs are rightfully concerned about handing out another 6-7 year contract of 20-25 million or more. They're ways to minimize that risk on both ends of spectrum. I trust the Cubs FO to be able to identify the pitchers (be they 30 year old FAs or 24-26 year olds with 3 or more years of team control left) who have the least amount of risk to their profile. I believe they did this with Lester and somewhat with Montgomery. Lester's success comes more from location than over-powering velocity so his performance is less likely to fall off. Plus, he's remarkably consistent and physically stout. Montgomery had turned 27 on July 1st (20 days prior to the Cubs trading for him), was showing signs of putting it all together and had 5 years of control left. There was risk to signing Lester to that contract, but it was minimized by not only the factors I listed above but also the fact that they didn't have a contract of that size already on their books. There's risk to Montgomery. He might not ever be a rotation mainstay, but he came with many years of control and they only had to give up Vogelbach and Blackburn to get him. If they can identify Montgomery, who's to say they can't do it with someone a year or two younger and a slightly higher upside? Whether they do it again with a 30-year-old FA or a 24-26 year trade acquisition, good young pitching exists. It's not a myth (though I understand what you're saying). And I don't see a smart front office throwing out a large percentage of the acquirable talent pool just because they're beginning or are in their prime (26 or younger).

Another 5 RBI game for Candelario (his 3rd of the season thus far) and they're still in the 4th inning...

Apparently Silverio has a mid-90s FB with a good but not great curve and no 3rd pitch as of yet. He struggled with control last season but is off to a good start in that regard so far this year. The Cubs preach fastball command above all else. Perhaps he's made some strides with that and will attempt to add a change up once his FB command proves consistent. At 6'2", 210 lbs., he's got the body to stay as a starter, but if he doesn't add a 3rd pitch, he'll come out of the pen. His age isn't a concern for me. Guys develop at different rates. He was a slightly older IFA sign back in 2012 and 22 is just a year old for Low A. Coming into this season, Silverio was an extreme long shot of ever being on the Cubs prospect map, but as we've seen of late, this Cubs scouting and developmental staff has a way of causing a handful of guys to jump up and onto prospect top 30 lists each year. It's way too early for excitement to be fully justified for anybody, but if he keeps this up...

Love the new nickname for New Orleans. Went from the Zephyrs (which is still pretty cool) to the Baby Cakes. WTF? Awesome.

Watched the game on MiLB.com and the Blue Wahoos announcers were very complimentary of Underwood. What I liked was his poise and pace (along with his stuff). He pitched like he belonged. Interesting K numbers given his history, for sure. We'll see if this K/9 continues. Two of his 8 Ks did come against the pitcher but what was nice to see was that 3 of them came in the 4th after starting the inning hit, error, hit and allowing a run, he then struck out the next 3 batters. Almost like he could do it when he needed to. It'd be nice if that were the case but it's just one start. He's got 20+ more to go...

I get the argument, but good young pitching exists. So do winning Powerball tickets Yes they do. But the odds of acquiring or developing a good pitcher 26 or younger are significantly better. But I suspect you know that.

Pretty good night for Underwood. 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Let's see if he can keep that up...

Me too but they are really piling up with minimal open space for them to play. They're gonna have to move some of them but I think the mythical 5-1 deal is very unlikely to ever happen with this FO. I think it'll be more like 2-1 deals for reclamation projects or slightly faded prospects. If Happ and others are involved it would have to be for something more than a reclamation project of sorts. I have no idea what's going to happen with Happ. Lots of different options. Injuries. Others getting traded. But a package for a quality arm with some upside is certainly one of the possibilities.

I get the argument, but good young pitching exists. It's not a myth.

In an abstract, big picture discussion, I get this. But I just can't see Happ (or any player with his profile/talent) being a 6th infielder or outfielder which he would be on this team as it's currently constructed. He's young (22), needs to play everyday to continue his development and really needs to play 2B a lot to see if he can stick there as that would maximize his value. In the present, he provides excellent depth in case of injury which is something this FO really values. If I had to choose, I would want La Stella or Szczur coming up to pinch hit at this stage because they strike out so much less frequently than Happ. In the future, I can only see him staying with the team if they move somebody. Zobrist could be traded as he ages. As much as I wouldn't want to see it, Baez could be moved. But the most likely scenario for me is still Happ being dealt. The better he hits, the better chance he can headline a package for a young pitcher with upside. If his development means the Cubs can acquire a good, young starter without giving up Jimenez, that's providing a ton of value.

I'd caution against saying we can count on Zastryzny to be definitively anything at the major league level after just 16 innings, but I agree he's shown he can be good. The question now is can he do it consistently. One thing seems fairly certain. He'll get another chance and, as you stated, will likely be the first lefty reliever called upon from AAA.

It certainly has been a good start for the top Cubs minor league pitchers. Butler (even thought he won't count towards the system's ranking is still important), Clifton, De La Cruz, Hatch and Cease combined for 24.2 IP, 17 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 11 BB, 25 K for a 1.09 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Lesser prospects Zastryzny, P. Johnson, Tseng, Alzolay, T. Miller and Rondon threw 24.1 IP, 15 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 6 BB, 32 K for a 1.85 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Add in bats like Jimenez, Happ, Candelario, Caratini with some emerging bats like EJM, Parades, etc., Albertos once short season gets started and the 27th and 30th draft picks and this system could be pretty solid by year's end. It will be fun to track for sure.

The OKC announcer described the oppo blast Happ hit last night as hitting the brick wall behind and to the left of the LED video board in that picture. It was easy oppo power too. When I watched it, it looked like a fairly easy fly out. Wind was blowing out pretty strong though.

From the AFL Championship game (in which he went 4-for-4 with a double and 2 HRs) thru spring training to now his stat line is: 79 AB, 17 R, 31 H, 8 2B, 0 3B, 10 HR, 28 RBI, 8 BB, 20 K for an approximate slash line of .392/.448/.873 with 9.2% BB and 22.3% K. Not bad...

Looks like Cease has been scheduled to go tomorrow, but the starters listed by MiLB.com are often wrong.

Wasn't Dylan Cease slotted to start yesterday or did I miss read that? If I didn't, unless he warmed up to the point of not being able to go, he should be one of the 2 South Bend starters today. Also, welcome to your professional baseball career Thomas Hatch!

...Aaaaand we're back. Once again, a big thank you to Raisin for running the show for us again this year. You're the ironman of the NSBB Minor League Forum. Cal Ripken should be looking over his shoulder...

I don't know. I find the youth on the South Bend roster fairly compelling. Cease (21), DJ Wilson (20), and Paredes (18) lead the list for sure. But Erling Moreno (20), Wladimir Galindo (20), Jhonny Pereda (20), Yeiler Peguero (19) and Tyson Miller (21) are all intriguing to varying degrees. Having 2 top 10 prospects with a 3rd 15th-20th prospect with a handful of other guys who are decent and young for their level ain't bad.

The Pereda news is a great opportunity for him, but possibly less merit based than need. SB's catching situation is no bueno. I know this, guys, because I play OOTP hmk. He's definitely a prospect, just don't be stunned if he finishes the year with Eugene should some C depth be added somehow. It should've been Marcos Mastrobuoni. Perhaps he's a little dinged up. Maybe his defense isn't great. I have no info. I wouldn't be shocked if any prospect who skips a level winds up spending time at that lower level at some point during the season. That said, if Pereda hits he'll stay. What I would be shocked by is if it's his defense that gets him sent down.

It's official but not surprising, Paredes has made the jump from the AZL to South Bend. He'll be 18 years old all season. Not official but a little more surprising, it appears C Johnny Pereda will also start the season in South Bend. Good reports on Pereda's defense and a breakout season with the bat put him on the map in 2016. He'll turn 21 on April 18th. Thomas Hatch will make his Cubs debut in High-A Myrtle Beach, and, of course, Happ starts the year in AAA. On the flip side, Bailey Clark will stay in extended spring training perhaps joining South Bend down the line.

FWIW, Clifton threw 6 scoreless (83 pitches) giving up 3 hits with 3 Ks and a walk in his final spring tune-up vs. Eddie Butler and the AAA squad. For those interested, Butler went 5 innings (84 pitches) giving up 8 H, 3 runs (all earned) with no walks and 6 Ks.

I know, right? Doesn't turn 22 until May 11th. The Southern League is a much tougher environment for a pitcher than the Carolina League, but if he can pitch 140 innings with around 25% K, less than 10% BB, around a .230-.240 BAA and 1.20 or less WHIP (all of which would be slightly worse than his 2016 numbers) in his age 21-22 season in AA, the Cubs may have something, and he could start showing up in some top 100 lists. As always, it's wait-and-see time. Good news is we won't have to wait much longer for start #1! Come on, Friday...

Uh oh. Is that the dreaded inverted W?

For those of you who can't wait until Sunday night to watch a Cubs game, here's MLB The Show 17's simulated game between the Indians and Cubs at Wrigley Field. After such a long layoff, I actually found myself invested in the outcome and a little nervous towards the end. There's probably something very wrong with me... [bbvideo=560,315]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1H04Uj_elFU[/bbvideo]