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Derwood

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Everything posted by Derwood

  1. Derwood
    And he batted 130 times less than Pierre. Pierre was more efficient with the bat than Theriot and yet he still sucked
  2. Derwood
    Getting Furcal as our shortstop is much more than a "marginal upgrade." I don't think you fully grasp the magnitude of Theriot's suck. Furcal bottomed out last season having the worst season of his career, and he still was better than Theriot. Furcal's not an old cat yet. He just turned 30. He has at least three more quality seasons in him. Rafael Furcal will easily bounce back to his overall line the previous four years. That's an upper .270s EqA with above average defense. Theriot's suck will likely improve a bit, but to what? A .250 EqA? That's a 25 run difference on offense, likely another 10 or so on defense. We're talking about a 30-40 run difference between Theriot and Furcal. By comparison, that's a greater increase in production than going from Felix Pie to Grady Sizemore. i guess the question is are 35 runs worth $13 million more on the payroll?
  3. Derwood
    i guess MacPhail technically is "out of control", insomuch as he has no actual control over moves made on the Orioles
  4. Derwood
    i've come to realize that everyone in baseball sucks at everything always
  5. Derwood
    Juan Pierre made 548 outs last year. All by himself. 15 of those outs came on stolen base attempts. the year before, he made 566 outs. I don't want this man anywhere near my team. Ryan Theriot sucked, and he made nearly 100 fewer outs than Pierre.
  6. Derwood
    if anyone wants to meet up for a Cubs series in either Cincy or Pittsburgh, let me know
  7. Derwood
    andruw jones was in a contract year last season and he blew goats
  8. Derwood
    i assume we'll all be getting however many months of credit once Premium goes in
  9. Derwood
    i love the misplaced anger about information leaks. these GM's and owners and what not damn the media for spreading rumors, where they should be pissed at the people within their own organization who are leaking the information. I feel the same way about leaked albums in the music industry. yes, you have a right to be pissed that your artist's album is all over bit torrent 3 weeks before it's release, but how about you go find out who in your recording studio is leaking the album first?
  10. Derwood
    they never should have moved out of Rec Hall. It was their own version of Cameron Indoor; student standing a foot out of bounds, packed to the rafters, loud as all get out. now they're playing in an airport hangar with the first 10 rows reserved for boosters/alumni who never show up
  11. Derwood
    i love that the cliche with chicago ballplayers is "too much fun on Rush St." when Rush St. is about the 127th coolest street to go have fun on
  12. Derwood
    A drop in production, really? He had 8 less hits in 07 than in 06, but his average went up a point. He had 9 more runs, and 1 more RBI. Oh, and 6 more stolen bases along with an increased SB%. Hmmmm, his SLG did go down, guess we shouldn't be looking for him to bat in the middle of the order anymore should we? Pierre lead the league in outs in 2006
  13. Derwood
    Er, no? I'm pretty sure the Figgins rumor originates from a Kaplan report on WGN Radio. I know the Burnett thing is more than just pure speculation, too, I just can't remember where it came from right now. sorry, i meant Burnett and Greene, not Figgins
  14. Derwood
    Roberts and Byrd. they're the only "reported" deals that have been talked about. Burnett is almost completely fabricated here, as is Figgins
  15. Derwood
    Barry Bonds
  16. Derwood
    isn't it more or less every GM's policy to deny any trades/signings until they're official?
  17. Derwood
    they can afford it? If you know the name of the new owner please share it with the rest of us. i'm saying that the Cubs as a business creates enough $$$ to afford it.
  18. Derwood
  19. Derwood
    they can afford it?
  20. Derwood
    only if he declines. i wouldn't mind being hampered by the best pitcher in baseball
  21. Derwood
    Kind of confused what the problem is. That Soriano and Ramirez projection is basically spot on, nobody is going to perfectly predict R/RBI or playtime but the OBP/SLG which is the important part is almost perfect. The only major difference with Lee is his BABIP was so extremely high last year which again you cannot predict which player get the lucky hits. That leaves DeRosa who only had a 1 year history of being decent so of course a system didn't think he'd repeat it and I'm still doubtful he repeats it since his AVG was .030 pts higher than his xAVG last year which suggests a line that looks a lot more like the PECOTA one in the future. Those projections were pretty decent and if you actually use more stable stats like xAVG, xERA etc I'm sure they are even more spot on. No system is going to predict luck correctly so when you use stats heavily influenced by luck/variance/sample size whatever you want to call it you will not get great results. i didn't pick those as good/bad examples, just put them out there as a matter of looking back.
  22. Derwood
    FTFY
  23. Derwood
    1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP oh come on, we both know you're smarter than that. Using one year to determine worth? Here let me try: Santana had an ERA+ of 161 in 2006, while Peavy's was 99. I win! But I don't care about ERA+, so you don't win. because it hurts your argument No, because ERA is a bad way to predict future ERA. And to address the +, park factors usually suck. fine, my guess is that Santana's predictive stats are also better than Peavy's
  24. Derwood
    1. I don't care about ERA. 2. I don't care too much about WHIP. 3. The last column actually hurts your case. I understand why you don't care about 1 and 2, but I don't understand why it matters since there are no other stats out there that is gonna put Santana behind any other pitcher in baseball. ERA+ isn't an end all stat, but it's tough to ignore numbers that high. Also, what other start pitches 200+ innings and keeps his WHIP under 1.00 three straight years? It's sick. I'd give up a lot for 220 IP and 250 K's, even if for just one year You're right we can't ignore ERA+. Jake Peavy had him beat least season. And had more Ks. And had a lower WHIP oh come on, we both know you're smarter than that. Using one year to determine worth? Here let me try: Santana had an ERA+ of 161 in 2006, while Peavy's was 99. I win! But I don't care about ERA+, so you don't win. because it hurts your argument
  25. Derwood
    They are Meph's projections of the projections. in other words, they are nothing Ok. you care what Meph thinks someone else will think will happen this year? i love how you post in all of these threads that you don't care about. it makes me laugh. It makes me laugh that Derwood, of all people, is trying to be the arbiter of what is post worthy. that's not what Meph thought you'd say
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