1.) Research. Not "research." Done by professionals, not me. 2.) Said research confirms what has been the working hypothesis in the sabermetric community for the better part of a decade. This isn't a new or revolutionary idea. 3.) I'll eat my hat if you even know what research it is you're referring to. You're dismissing it because it clashes with your opinion, not because of any well thought out argument against it. I'll concede that it's ok (and even advisable in certain situations) to overpay for top talent. I was advocating doing just that for Pujols and Darvish. But there are significant questions as to what degree Fielder qualifies as a "top talent" to begin with, which makes any overpay significantly more risky. If the front office comes home with Fielder on a 7 year deal, I'm sure it's probably fine. They have plenty of access to information that none of the rest of us do... scouting reports, research, projection systems, budgetary information, an actual blueprint about where they intend to take the team and when they plan to contend... etc... But every moron fan I've seen wringing his hands and freaking out about what a failure this offseason is if we don't come back with Fielder at any cost needs to get a reality check. If we're being generous we'll call him a 5 WAR 1B who wont age well. We may not see one of those on the FA market every year, but we can find similar upgrades elsewhere. If we bring him in, great. If we don't, big whoop. Slightly related, what do you think a realistic projection is for LaHair in 2012?