jersey cubs fan

The only people talking about their 1-run record are the people who keep blaming their struggle on luck and blindly expecting things to just even out. Pythagorean record doesn't mean things will even out.

Go figure. The study also went on to note that if you win a lot of 1-run games, it might not be repeatable, but if you lose a lot of 1-run games, your chances of losing more 1-run games continue. Teams whose records are propped up by 1-run wins, struggle to maintain those records. Teams whose records are held back by 1-run losses, don't really make up for it down the road.

Some are arguing that luck is more likely to play a role in a 2 run loss than in a 5 run loss. Some are being completely ridiculous in their overeliance on luck to change things around. The Cubs are 0-5 in 1 run games. That doesn't mean anything. They've lost 1-0. That's not luck. You can't win when you don't score. They lost 6-5 in a game blown by Zambrano and Ohman. That's not luck, that's bad pitching. Just because you lose a 1-run game doesn't mean odds are you'll win your next. There's a theory that 1-run games eventually will even out. They don't of course. They never do. The Cubs aren't losing coin flips, they are losing baseball games. Why? Well, there's a lot of reasons. And if luck has played a part in any, it's about the smallest part. If they want to get to 85 wins, a .525 winning percentage, they must now go 78-65, for a .545 winning percentage. Any perceived lack of luck early isn't going to affect the rest of the 143 games. Is this a .545 winning percentage team? That's an 88 win type of season, and I think that's at the very top of their possibly range this year. It'll take great improvement of play, not luck, to turn this season around.

why are people pretending that 2-run losses are determined by luck?

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really assume Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. EDIT> I do not think the season is over, but at this point in time the Cubs are not a good team. But with the mediocrity that is the NL Central they still have a shot. You can't assume Aramis would get the same pitch and would hit a homerun, had Lee stayed still. That doesn't make the SB attempt any less dumb. The Cubs have been reckless on the base paths. Some people call it aggressive. I call it stupid. Lou's boys have run themselves out of more than 1 inning, and that's doubly tough when you don't get on base all that frequently to begin with.

Your timeline's off by a couple of years. Grace was let go after 2000, Choi wasn't hurt and left on the bench until 2003. but wasn't he let go to make room for a younger, cheaper 1B. Julio Zuleta maybe? He left after 2000, and it was, in part, due to the Cubs having Choi in the wings. He was on a series of one year deals, and felt insulted by his last offer, which, as it turns out, was actually more than he made the next year in Arizona. The difference being the number of guaranteed years. Choi missed about half of 2001 with an injury after coming off solid 1999 and 2000 seasons. So he didn't debut until 2002.

Just say no to ridiculous T-shirt gimmicks. amen to that

Cedeno was never a top prospect. He was a relatively obscure prospect when Hendry added him to the 40-man roster, a move that shocked many. He had an outside shot of maybe one day being a cheap starting SS without dragging down the lineup. But that was about his upside. He doesn't compare to Patterson as a prospect.

I think they're 7-12 record is indicative of how they have played, and that arbitrarily including 2 run games into the discussion is nonsense. 1-run losses are often talked about as games that could go either way, with luck. But this is really stretching it. If, in most of your games, you don't score many runs, you are going to end up short with the final tally quite often. Finally, what do you mean by ability? The Cubs have the talent to be able to win 85 games this year, if things go right. They are also quite able to lose 85. This isn't some juggernaut off to a rough start. It was a very flawed team that might contend this year. So far, they aren't.

Marv Levy fell asleep. He traded his 3rd rounder to the Bears for their 6th rounder (don't tell him they don't have a 6th)

And yet, the manager wants fewer position players. Lou's been away from the NL for a very long time, perhaps he needs to rethink his late inning strategies to stop getting into this situation.

And a lot of players have completely outplayed their abilities. Guys who are struggling are not guys who are surprisingly struggling.

Pyth is worthless at this stage. It looks good thanks to a couple high scoring games. I've never liked its inability to account for feast or famine offenses like the Cubs, and that is just exasperated this early in the season. Take out the Cubs 2 highest and 2 lowest scoring games, and their average runs scored drops from about 4.6 to 4.3. The Cubs aren't having bad luck. They are a flawed team having all its weaknesses exposed. People keep talking about the 1 and 2 run losses, but the Cubs have lost by 3, 4 and 5 runs as well. When you are a bad team with a bad record, your record is going to be bad in just about every split. The Cubs need to drastically improve their play, not hope for luck to start going there way.

Why can't it be? If a pitcher hits well enough, they should be considered part of the bench. If you count this year, then 3 out of the last 4 years Marquis has hit .292, .310, and .273. Also between 2004-2006, he was 6-19 as a pinch hitter with 1 2B and 1 3B. With the Cubs roster right now, putting Marquis up there is just as effective as Izturis, Cedeno, Blanco, or Pie. ...which should tell you exactly how much trouble we're in. Marquis is a .225 lifetime hitter, according to the stats I saw last night on screen. That is true, but that's because he went 7 for 73 in his years with Atlanta. Somebody with St. Louis taught him how to hit. In the past 3 1/2 years, he has been a .262 hitter overall. Still not awesome, but pretty good for a back of the bench guy. For pretty much any team, when you get to your 3rd or 4th best bench option, that's about as much as you can hope for. Talking about his 3 best AVG seasons is skewing the facts. He's a good hitter, FOR A PITCHER, but that is about all he is. He's a lifetime .224 hitter with a 563 OPS. Last season he hit .179 with an OPS of 466. He's had one, remotely decent season at the plate, 2005, when he put up a line of .310/.326/.460. Every other season that he's had more than 2 ABs, his OBP is sub .300. Nobody would think of somebody like this as a viable pinch hitter. It's quite likely that his 87 at bats in 2005 were more a fluke than anything else, and he's going to be a 500-600 OPS kind of guy from here on out, much like Neifi Perez's April 2005 was a fluke.

Does anyone really think that Fontenot is that much better than Izturis and or Cedeno? It sure doesn't seem like the Cubs do. They could have brought up Fontenot on many occasions and didn't. In fact they moved in the opposite direction by removing him from the 40 man roster. In order to promote him they'd have to drop someone else from the 40 man roster. Perhaps they are anticipating moving Prior to the 60 day DL. It seems to me that the best we could hope for is Fontenot replaces Cedeno on the 25 man roster and he splits time with Izturis. That to me seems more like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The Cubs don't, but this is the same organization who had Wuertz down in Iowa for nearly half a season last year. I like Fontenot and think he is a better option than Cedeno and Izturis. And I know for a fact that I'm not the only one who believes this. I think there's a good chance he'd be better offensively, but not sure if he has any chance of playing a competent SS.

So Floyd is on pace to easily eclipse the PA threshold of 425 he needs to guarantee his 2008 salary. He's going to rack up bonuses for this year as well. I believe I heard the deal started at 1 year $3m guaranteed, but could be worth as much as $17m over 2 years. That right there should be reason enough to start sitting him more frequently, let alone his sub .300 OBP and 634 OPS. Play him too much and you risk making the already dangerous payroll situation that much more unmanagable.

Hendry is responsible for each and every reason why they suck. He's the GM. He puts together the team. You don't diregard the poor record because a couple of the guys he got are doing well. So I guess whichever team wins the world title, no credit should be given to the players or manager, but just to the GM for "putting the team together." Hendry is not totally to blame. Yes, this is a flawed roster, and for that he incurs blame. Lou incurs blame for a few questionable decisions (none of them last night IMO) and the fact that he told Hendry repeatedly to not bring anyone else in. The players get blame for under performing what people like Hendry or everybody else would expect of them. There's too much blame here to put it on one person. There's plenty of blame to go around. But Hendry is ultimately the main problem. The GM is the most important person in an organization. And the Cubs have a really bad one.

What, do you mean Lou said Fonz is staying in LF even after his hammy is healed? I haven't heard that. I thought LF was still officially a method of aiding Fonz's healing process and not a permanent assignment. Everything I've read gave me the impression that it's permanent. But I'm not sure if Lou specifically said it's permanent.

Hendry is responsible for each and every reason why they suck. He's the GM. He puts together the team. You don't diregard the poor record because a couple of the guys he got are doing well.

And more than one season has ended in April. I'll never understand why Cubs fans get so uptight when other Cubs fans start to panic after a horrible start to the season. The Yankees are 1/2 a game out of last place and just lost to those last place Devil Rays. Should we write them off too? Again, we're talking about the Cubs. The Yankees are 2 games under .500, but have a recent history of early struggles still ending up with 90+ win seasons. If the Cubs won 90+ for the past 10 years, I don't think I'd be very concerned about the start. But they are 5 games under .500, playing .368 ball, coming off a season when they played just .407 ball. So your comparison is worthless.

And more than one season has ended in April. I'll never understand why Cubs fans get so uptight when other Cubs fans start to panic after a horrible start to the season.

What do you mean? I mean, his offensive ability is unique at 2nd, same as center. As a LF, he's just another bat, nowhere close to deserving the type of contract he got. He's a 2nd rate star to begin with, now he's going to be playing the easiest to fill spot on the roster (taking away his value). Add this to the fact that he's clearly not a leadoff hitter, yet he's going to be leading off for the Cubs for the foreseeable future, and it becomes clear the Cubs are getting the least bang for their buck as possible. Obviously, that's par for the course with Hendry.

He's simply not that valuable as a LF. This could really hurt whatever chance he had of living up to that contract.

Fired? They're getting bonuses from the networks for mazimizing their potential ratings.

Jets need DT help, and prefer the big boys stopping the run, as opposed to the quick guys who rush the QB. They take Paul Soliai from Utah. sorry for the delay, I've been away