jersey cubs fan

Soriano also didn't have his first health setback until this year. Constant leg injuries have a way of aging an athlete quicker than expected. And comparing him to possibly one day equaling Soriano isn't a good way of selling him, the Cubs already have a Soriano, and some would argue it's one too many. More low OBP/high SLG players are not in the Cubs best interest. If everything works out of the best with Baldelli, you'd have a fairly productive player for 4/$25m. That would be pretty nice. However, you've got to guarantee both 2010 and 2011 at the same time. If he makes it through 2008 and 2009 relatively healthy, he's still a health risk in 2010 and 2011. And you still have to take into account that Tampa isn't going to give this guy away. It's going to take serious talent in return to convince them to give him up.

Cameron has put together some pretty significant seasons. The Cubs do need guys who can hit LH pitching. If the suspension brings his price down low enough, this could be an interesting move. It could give Pie a month to try and show something. No, that's not enough time, but it's a start. He could be used in some sort of platoon with Jones, which could be some solid production. I wouldn't be against looking at Cameron.

From TB's perspective, they'll want as much pitching with as little service time as possible. Gallagher, Marshall and Marmol fits that bill. Yeah, we wouldn't be happy with the Cubs making that move, but Tampa and Chicago are quite different as far as motive to deal. Tampa is going to look for salary relief and cheap young pitching. The Cubs aren't as concerned about cost and just need some production. I wouldn't lose sleep if we made that deal. Marmol is a reliever who was overused this year and is at peak value. Marshall (to me) isn't anything special, and Gallagher is an unknown commodity. Put it this way: we've made dumber deals involving 3 players. I was referring to frost's comment about how we would feel if the Cubs were the team trading Crawford.

Except Hamilton isn't an OBP liability, does not have a guaranteed $6.5m coming his way and cost no talent to acquire. If they can have Rocco for nothing, fine. But you're guaranteed next to nothing from him, even if he does play. I didn't say he would have Hamilton's numbers. Just that he could finally be at the point to live up to his talent like Hamilton did in 07. And how is league average production next to nothing? Would have killed for average production from CF, SS and C last year. A 100 OPS+ is league average, but if it's SLG dependent, it's much less meaningful. It's subpar. If Baldelli stood much of a chance of giving you 600 PA at his career best rate, he'd be a help. I just don't see any reason to think he can play that much or will maintain that rate. If this leaves you with an OF of Soriano, Baldelli, Jones, you are going to need a massive improvement at SS and hope like heck that Soto is the real deal. Because that's a .330 OBP OF begging to derail a lineup. You're talking about a lineup that may be only slightly better than what they had in 2005.

Alfonso Soriano disagrees. It isn't GREAT production, but it also isn't bad production, which is what the Cubs have been getting too much of. If the Cubs aren't gonna go full boar into going after guys who can get on base 35+% of the time, then they need to get the most productive guys they can get who do it in other ways. Baldelli has the potential to be as good as it gets if you consider salary and the amount in talent it would take to acquire such a player. Alfonso is a much more productive hitter than Baldelli, and he's still not nearly as good as the Cubs need. The Cubs don't need more OBP liabilities. A 100 OPS+ that is SLG dependent is bad production. It's subpar, and paying more than the minimum for that kind of production is inefficient usage of resources. I'm not sure how Baldelli has the potential to be as good as it gets. He's got the potential to be a lesser Soriano, but even that is doubtful, given his longterm struggles with health. There would still need to be significant improvements made to the team if Baldelli is your key OF upgrade.

From TB's perspective, they'll want as much pitching with as little service time as possible. Gallagher, Marshall and Marmol fits that bill. Yeah, we wouldn't be happy with the Cubs making that move, but Tampa and Chicago are quite different as far as motive to deal. Tampa is going to look for salary relief and cheap young pitching. The Cubs aren't as concerned about cost and just need some production.

Except Hamilton isn't an OBP liability, does not have a guaranteed $6.5m coming his way and cost no talent to acquire. If they can have Rocco for nothing, fine. But you're guaranteed next to nothing from him, even if he does play.

That's exactly what the Cubs need, more guys who make lots of outs if they ever play. A decent OPS that is SLG dependent isn't good production.

Trump is trash. I hope he stays far away from the Cubs. He does nothing but run businesses into the ground.

Perhaps because the elites had already moved on? I've heard nothing that says this guy is potentially special. Everything I've heard is potential 4th/5th starter. That's fine, but there isn't a good history of Japanese pitchers coming over and providing solid stable production. Glimpses, sure. A couple positive outliers, yes. But by and large the group has been shaky.

I'm not sure how Irabu does anything but reinforce my statement that the history of Japanese pitchers coming to the states is shaky. 5 years in the states, 2 ERA's over 7, 5.15 for his career, 87 ERA+. Ishii was here for 4 years and had an ERA+ of 90. Pulling one decent season out of your butt doesn't make you a solid reliable starter.

I had a reply going here but timed out after being distracted by work. Anyway, I'm not passionate anti-Greene, but his walk rate hasn't been any better than Pie's professional walk rate. And the production he's likely to provide for the $18-20m he's going to make over the next 3 years does not justify a 1/1 swap with Felix Pie and the type of low cost production he's capable of providing.

Shaky history? Well, Ishii sucked, Igawa is terrible. Matsuzaka was good this year, but I don't think he was as good as advertised. Nomo and Park each had pretty nice careers, but were extremely inconsistent. I'm fairly confident in a solid hitter contributing in the majors, I don't have a ton of faith in pitchers, especially ones that aren't considered the best of the best. Ishii sucked? He was pretty much as expected. In Japan he was a strikeout pitcher with walk issues. In the US he was a strikeout pitcher with walk issues. His first two seasons were fine: 4.27 ERA and a 3.86 ERA. Granted he was lucky, but he didn't suck. He was as expected. Matsuzaka was fine this season, inconsistent and pitched in a tough division. Nomo had a very good career. Park has as well, but he shouldn't count. He was signed out of high school. We're talking about translating guys who have had success in NPB and guys who came here. Park is irrelevant. Yes, Ishii sucked, there's no question about it. I think you have to differentiate between the elites who came over, Nomo and Matzuzaka, and the rest. This guy doesn't seem to be anything special, and most likely falls into the category of all the disappointments.

The problem is Colvin hasn't done a thing, EP isn't really a CF, Jones is garbage and hopefully out the door soon, and Fuld is a nobody. Just because they have other guys who can man the position, you can't take away the fact that Pie does indeed play a premium position, and plays it well. If you are going to trade him, you have to get serious value. But still, SS is more at a premium than CF, and yes I did mean in the Cubs system because they can get by with Jones in 08, and then with Colvin or Patterson beyond. I don't know what you mean by "serious" value, but I think a pre-prime, pre-arbitration SS could apply. Khalil Greene is neither pre-prime nor pre-arbitration. He's 28 and played this year at $2.7m. He's eligible for arbitration this year and next before hitting free agency. Plus, he's a potential OBP black hole. Regardless of the power, anybody capable of .290 OBP seasons is going to kill a lineup. And his health has been a serious problem.

If 2007 was the only thing that mattered, you're right. But Drew and Floyd are not the same player. Actually, they are kind of the same player. Both are 30+, brittle outfielders who have seen significant declines in their OPS over the past few years (Actually, Floyd's has fluctuated while Drew's has consistently dropped). There's absolutely no reason to think that Drew can recover and post a .900 OPS again (unless he finds some HGH in his locker), just like there's no reason to think Floyd will ever hit 30 HR's again. Picking up Drew would be a waste of money equivalent to signing Marquis. While I'm not the biggest Murton fan, I'd rather have him at the minimum next year than Drew taking up 14 million dollars of our payroll. I would hesitate to go with Drew myself, but your comparisons are quite weak. Over 30 is a generic statement. Sure, Drew is past his prime. But Floyd is past his usefulness. Floyd is coming off back to back disappointing seasons. He's 3 years older than Drew and over the past 5 seasons, he's played 140 games once. Floyd is a terrible outfielder, while Drew is actually pretty good. There's actually a pretty decent reason to think Drew can recover and post a 900 OPS again. It is by no means a lock, certainly. I'm not a big proponent of Drew. But just because their numbers were similar in 2007 does not mean Drew and Floyd are the same player.

But the numbers show that it was a shock that they finished with 89 wins. Their pythag shows that they should have won 94 games that year. Who knows how differently it would have been if they didn't go 1-5 in their last 6 games. Not to say that you can't count that, but if someone had told you after game 156 that the Cubs wouldnt win 90 games with 6 more against the bad Reds and the already clinched Braves, you would believe them? I think it was very surprising that they didnt win 93-94 wins. Obviously they had some major fundamental problems, but I don't think many expected them to win under 90 games after getting Lee, Walker, Maddux, and later Nomar and Dempster to add to a team that won 88 games the year before. And then again, some people weren't surprised that a Dusty Baker managed team fell short thanks to a mediocre offense that couldn't get on base and pitchers coming up lame. They added names, but the names were bigger than the production.

If 2007 was the only thing that mattered, you're right. But Drew and Floyd are not the same player.

very good pitching and mediocre hitting. Aside from the names and that fact that they could hit HR, they weren't that good. They were not serious contenders. 92-95 wins may have seemed possible to some, but it didn't happen and it wasn't all that big of a surprise. They finished 3rd in their division and 5 NL teams had a better record. They just weren't that good. Part of the problem was a manager who was all too willing to risk the health of the young pitchers. The manager is part of the team and his decisions contributed to the losses that season. Regardless of talent and name recognition, they could not get on base, didn't score many runs, and destroyed their young arms.

Perhaps, but there isn't a ton of available free agent pitching in the states. The true bests are typically signed by their own club before making it to the market, so that the only thing available are the Ted Lilly's and Steve Trachsel's of the world. 2nd/3rd tier guys or the bottom of the barrel. Occasionally you'll get guys like Mussina and Hampton, perceived as great pitchers, hit the free agent market before their mid 30's, but I don't think there's a ton of that out there. My question is, have we had a post-30 Japanese starting pitcher sign as a free agent in the states and be successful?

Not to nit pick right back at you, but neither is Chan Ho Park. And Jersey was referencing Asian pitchers, not just Japanese. I was referring to all Asian pitchers, with a focus on guys coming over after having pitched professionally in Japan. Guys like Wang and Ryu are a bit different. But there's nothing wrong with throwing them all in there. My point is not that it's impossible for an Asian pitcher to have success in the states, rather, that guys coming over in the middle of their careers have had shaky results. The hitters seem to me to be a lot more stable. Guys already in their 30's who aren't considered the best of the best are kind of scary.

The problem is Colvin hasn't done a thing, EP isn't really a CF, Jones is garbage and hopefully out the door soon, and Fuld is a nobody. Just because they have other guys who can man the position, you can't take away the fact that Pie does indeed play a premium position, and plays it well. If you are going to trade him, you have to get serious value.

Shouldn't the Cubs be the ones getting an additional player in that deal? I can't believe how highly Hendry thought of Trachsel. He was and is complete garbage.

I realize the Sox didn't exactly get what they were hoping for, in terms of power production, out of Drew. But they won the WS with him and his .373 OBP in the lineup. Like last year, I think Drew would be a great fit for the Cubs (esp if he could play CF) - I wanted him more than Soriano. But I don't see the Sox eager to deal that OBP for Jones and Marquis. Maybe they take Murton for him, but I'm not really sure I'd want to do that deal (why add all the extra salary for the same OPS, even if Drew is "proven") and I don't know that Theo is going to want to either. What's the benefit to the Sox of having Jones and his 5 HR and .335 OBP replace JD Drew? The WS win healed a bunch of wounds, but Boston was extremely harsh on JD this year, and I suspect they will go back to treating him the same way next season if he isn't great. Signing JD to a big longterm contract is a risk for any team, and if you can get one healthy season with a WS ring out of him, you might be justified in strongly considering a trade. My guess is Theo won't be interested, because no team is going to eat the whole contract and give fair value. They will be able to keep him without too much fan pressure to get rid of him, thanks to the ring. As for the Cubs, if they did get him, Murton is actually the type of player they'd need to keep around in case of injury and for the rest days.

The 2004 team was a serious contender. Should've won near 95 games and would've been a very scary playoff team. They just blew it at the end. That was by far our best shot. Injuries and a late season collapse took it away from us. Should have? There was nothing serious about the 2004 team. They were a blip above average.

The Padres farm system doesn't have much. Chase Headley looks like the real deal, but he can't play SS. He's blocked at 3b, and the rumor I'm hearing is that they might shift him to 2b going into next year. I haven't the foggiest clue why San Diego would trade Khalil. They don't have anyone who can play SS. Would I trade Pie straight up for Khalil? Absolutely. Will it happen? No. Agreed. I would trade Pie for Greene in a heartbeat. OBP isn't what you would like to see, but he has had 2 seasons over .085 BB/PA, which is a solid number. His numbers outside of Petco are very respectable, and I'd imagine playing in Wrigley over Petco 81 times, would make him closer to an .800 OPS. Pie is no guarantee to do that, and he doesn't play a premium position in the Cubs organization. Are you suggesting CF isn't premium, or that's it's not premium for the Cubs since they have Colvin?