I think there's a good chance he'll be available, not that the Cubs necessarily will get him. That said, the free agent market will be much, much stronger (as it stands now) in 2012 than this offseason. Thus, there's far more alternatives for teams to spend on that year than there are this year. With a more shallow pool, you're looking at more of a likelihood that teams get desperate to make a splash and try too heavily for Dunn, whereas teams might start shying away more quickly from Gonzalez when there are numerous other upgrade opportunities available on the market. Well then the Cubs can go out and spend on other options in 2012 if they have 1B settled. Also, free agency always looks better the further out you go, because guys haven't signed their extensions yet.