Mephistopheles

They don't have any terrible teams. They have a lot of solid teams. They don't any Mississippi States, Iowa States, Purdues or Texas A&M's. Remember, 50 in this system is average. The teams in the ACC: 66.42 Georgia Tech 65.72 Florida St 64.29 North Carolina 62.56 Boston College 62.50 Virginia Tech 60.84 Clemson 60.24 Wake Forest 59.33 Miami FL 55.88 Maryland 55.21 North Carolina St 53.11 Virginia 50.21 Duke Every single one of them is up above average. Sure, they had no truly great teams, but week in and week out you were going to face a quality opponent. The Big 12, for comparison 83.81 Oklahoma 79.58 Texas 74.84 Texas Tech 67.75 Missouri 67.17 Oklahoma St 62.01 Nebraska 59.05 Kansas 51.19 Baylor 48.70 Colorado 45.35 Kansas St 44.80 Texas A&M 35.88 Iowa St The SEC, for comparison 82.50 Florida 69.51 Alabama 65.13 Georgia 62.21 Mississippi 57.04 South Carolina 53.40 LSU 53.24 Vanderbilt 49.91 Tennessee 49.00 Kentucky 47.89 Arkansas 47.41 Auburn 40.43 Mississippi St The Pac 10, for comparison 77.80 Southern Cal 64.97 Oregon 63.44 California 63.08 Oregon St 57.67 Arizona 50.77 Stanford 49.37 Arizona St 43.64 UCLA 32.49 Washington 26.45 Washington St The Big Ten, for comparison 75.35 Penn State 69.68 Ohio State 62.68 Iowa 61.44 Michigan St 57.66 Northwestern 55.30 Wisconsin 51.75 Illinois 51.05 Minnesota 49.17 Purdue 43.95 Michigan 35.87 Indiana The Big East, for comparison 62.10 Pittsburgh 61.03 Cincinnati 57.06 West Virginia 56.98 Rutgers 54.95 Connecticut 52.91 South Florida 42.08 Louisville 39.31 Syracuse So, the Big XII has four teams ranked lower than anyone in the ACC. The SEC has five teams ranked lower than anyone in the ACC. The Pac 10 has four teams ranked lower than anyone in the ACC. The Big East and Big Ten have two teams ranked lower. The other BCS conferences collectively have 17 teams ranked lower than their worst team. All of the ACC is in the top 60. If you think this is crap and the teams in the ACC all suck so they get wins and makes them look good, then consider this. No other conference proved more against other conferences on the field than the ACC. The ACC went 4-0 against the Big XII. The ACC went 6-4 against the SEC, mainly due to Florida and Alabama. The ACC went 2-2 against the Big East. The ACC went 1-1 against the Pac 10. Records vs BCS conferences 13-8 - Atlantic Coast 7-7 - Big East 5-5 - Big Ten 7-8 - Big 12 5-6 - Pac 10 6-9 - SEC

http://fedexorangebowlmerch.com/2007A//catalog/index.php?cPath=91 cats out of the bag orange bowl is selling merchandise for ou vs uf. apparently with uf as the #1

To be added in tonight But, first, now the first-annual Meph rankings. There are four sorts of rankings to put out. The first, of which, are the Conference Ratings, for me. Note: I've been using these all season, just never wanted to post them until now. Note: For everything, 50.0 is average and the metric is measured in points. Conference Ratings: 1. 60.01 Big 12 2. 59.69 Atlantic Coast Conference 3. 56.47 Southerneastern Conference 4. 55.81 Big Ten 5. 53.30 Big East 6. 52.97 Pac 10 7. 51.13 Mountain West Conference 8. 42.56 Western Athletic Conference 9. 41.92 Mid-American Conference 10. 41.60 Independents 11. 40.70 Conference USA 12. 34.13 Sun Belt Thoughts: As easily seen, the Big 12 and ACC were considerably better than the other nine conferences in D1A. The SEC was number two going into the last two weeks, before the ACC pretty much handed their ass to them outside of Florida vs Miami and FSU. Note: The conference ratings themselves aren't a large part of the final rankings. I'm just averaging the teams in the conference to get an average rating for the conference. Now. If I had a vote, for top 25 including everything, not just how good a team is nor how much they accomplished, but a combination of the two, with the current AP ranks in parentheses. 1. 83.81 Oklahoma (2) 2. 82.50 Florida (1) 3. 79.58 Texas (3) 4. 77.80 Southern Cal (5) 5. 75.35 Penn State (6) 6. 74.84 Texas Tech (8) 7. 71.49 Utah (7) 8. 69.68 Ohio State (10) 9. 69.51 Alabama (4) 10. 68.77 TCU (11) 11. 68.43 Boise St (9) 12. 67.75 Missouri (25) 13. 67.17 Oklahoma St (13) 14. 66.42 Georgia Tech (14) 15. 65.72 Florida St (28) 16. 65.13 Georgia (16) 17. 64.97 Oregon (15) 18. 64.29 North Carolina (No Votes) 19. 63.44 California (31) 20. 63.08 Oregon St (24) 21. 62.68 Iowa (26) 22. 62.56 Boston College (27) 23. 62.50 Virginia Tech (21) 24. 62.21 Mississippi (20) 25. 62.10 Pittsburgh (18) Notable Absences: #28 BYU (#17), #29 Cincinnati (#12) These particular rankings were derived using only three things: WL record, Point differential, schedule. Nothing else was used. It's akin to the overall rankings that Sagarin posts on his site. Now, if we wanted to rank accomplishments on the field, meaning ignoring point differential and looking just at WL record and schedule. We have the accomplishment, or the best resume, stuff, argument. These rankings, are what, I would have to send to the BCS. 1. 80.40 Oklahoma 2. 78.37 Florida 3. 77.14 Texas 4. 76.23 Texas Tech 5. 75.00 Utah 6. 72.24 Southern Cal 7. 71.67 Penn State 8. 70.94 Georgia Tech 9. 70.26 Alabama 10. 69.64 Boise St 11. 69.60 Ohio State 12. 68.92 Florida St 13. 67.96 Georgia 14. 67.70 Cincinnati 15. 67.24 TCU 16. 67.22 Virginia Tech 17. 66.88 Boston College 18. 66.61 North Carolina 19. 66.13 Pittsburgh 20. 66.02 Oklahoma St 21. 64.38 Michigan St 22. 64.30 Missouri 23. 64.08 Brigham Young 24. 62.83 Nebraska 25. 62.50 Oregon Thoughts: Georgia Tech in the top ten? Yeah, that's what I thought. I was surprised to see Oklahoma State so low, myself. Weird. Alright, now for the pure prediction type rankings. These ones were derived only using point differential and schedule, nothing else. These would be akin to the Sagarin predictor. 1. 87.22 Oklahoma 2. 86.63 Florida 3. 83.36 Southern Cal 4. 82.03 Texas 5. 79.02 Penn State 6. 73.45 Texas Tech 7. 71.19 Missouri 8. 70.30 TCU 9. 69.76 Ohio State 10. 68.76 Alabama 11. 68.32 Oklahoma St 12. 67.97 Utah 13. 67.44 Oregon 14. 67.34 Iowa 15. 67.23 Boise St 16. 66.62 California 17. 65.45 Mississippi 18. 64.81 Arizona 19. 64.24 Oregon St 20. 62.52 Florida St 21. 62.30 Georgia 22. 61.98 North Carolina 23. 61.90 Georgia Tech 24. 61.19 Nebraska 25. 59.69 Clemson There is another incarnation of the rankings that's are a bit better, but i will go into these a little later. Anyways, OU is #1 in both and UF is #2 in both. Ought to be a great game. Now defending the method. Of the BCS computers, only one has been released with this weeks games included. So I wanted to check the accuracy of said methods. Alright, the average rankings (the ones that use WL and Point Diff) at predicting all 683 division 1 football games. Winner Accuracy 565 82.72% - Meph 559 81.84% - Sagarin Score Differential RMSE 13.61 - Meph 14.31 - Sagarin Now let's look at points only methods, sagarins predictor and mine. note these WILL be less accurate in predicting wins because they dont use wins, but are more accurate at predicting future matchups. this is all expected Winner Accuracy 81.11% - Meph 80.09% - Sagarin Score Differential RMSE 13.18% - Meph 13.60% - Sagarin Finally, the one the BCS requires. Only using WLs and who and where they played. Winner Accuracy 84.04% - Meph 83.46% - Sagarin Score Differential RMSE 14.87 - Meph 15.38 - Sagarin

oh you shall see.....you shall see.

guys, im a bit of a god. !

i didnt say otherwise.

just because they beat higher ranked teams, it doesn't mean they beat better teams.

just because OU beat TCU and Cincy it doesn't mean they're better than UT or UF.

It means that Florida needs only about 17 more points in the Harris Poll in order to make it, if their gains in the computers are what I suspect. Florida had about a 50 point lead in the harris going into this week. So Florida's in, unless my computer projections are off.

Coaches and AP Polls Are out. Oklahoma is number 1 in the Coaches poll. BY ONE POINT 1. 1482 Oklahoma (31) 2. 1481 Florida (26) 3. 1408 Texas (4) 4t. 1309 Alabama 4t. 1309 USC Florida ran away with the AP poll. They got 50 of the 65 first place votes

if the poll are released prior to it, then we should have a pretty clear indication then

Did you read the thread (answer: no). I wasn't making the watching the games argument. I was making the argument that T_T was completely ignorant to the way Mississippi produced on offense this year, considering he made the point that there was very little personnel changes, but failed to know that the three biggest offensive performers for Ole Miss were either in high school or red shirting.

One BCS poll in already. Sagarin: Last Week: 1. Oklahoma 2. Texas 3. Texas Tech 4. Alabama 5. Utah 6. Florida This Week: 1. Oklahoma 2. Texas 3. Texas Tech 4. Florida 5. Utah 6. Alabama What I said earlier about the Sagarin for the UF/UT decision. In order for Florida to pass Texas, they're going to have to move into fourth place in either the Sagarin, Wolfe or Massey polls and move into third in one of the other two. As we've seen that's not a very likely outcome - at all. Sorry doomsayers, Florida's not jumping Texas if Texas can stay ahead of Oklahoma in half the polls. What I projected for BCS Harris Poll and Coaches Poll 0.969180328 Florida 0.960000000 Oklahoma 0.950819672 Texas AH RB CM KM JS PW School 23 24 23 21 21 20 Florida 25 25 25 25 25 25 Oklahoma 22 23 24 23 24 24 Texas .9733 Oklahoma .9472 Texas .9395 Florida Now we're looking at: .9733 Oklahoma .9472 Texas .9428 Florida What Florida needs: 1. 2750 Harris Points (basically the magic number here is over 50 first place votes) 2. 1480 Coaches Points (basically the magic number here is over 25 first place votes) 3. Gain one more spot than I've shown thus far in the BCS computers. To do that, they need to go to either #2 in AH, or #4 in KM or PW. OR have Texas remain below Alabama in RB. If two of those happen, then Florida needs about five less first place votes in the harris and a couple less in the coaches. If three happen, then Florida's a virtual lock.

youll know you're answer before that. youll know your answer nearly as soon as sagarin is published, and certainly when the coaches and harris polls are out, not sure if theyll withhold those until the tv show. theyre usually out around noon cst

fixed

theyve promptly run three plays for -8 yards and are punting from the 2 yard line. ugggly game.

Hawaii just got flagged for holding on a touchback. 10 yard line down by five.

and its getting uglier by the minute. 29-24 cincy with 4:42 left.

what the hell just happened lmao this is an ugly fourth quarter.

Hawaii is trying to give them the game.

cincy just pick six'd on a tipped ball 24-17, Hawaii

Alright. In order for Oklahoma to get left out of the title game this is what needs to happen: 1. Cincy has to lose, 24-10 Hawaii 11:30 left and Cincy about to punt 2. OU can't jump UT in the human polls. 3. OU needs to lose three spots in the computers, relative to Texas 2 of those spots are in the colley poll already (that poll is not currently one of the rankings being dropped for texas or oklahoma). so can they gain one or two more in the other polls? it remains to be seen. i'd say there is a 20% or so that happens. If OU does make jumps on UT in the human polls, then UT needs a bit more gains in the computers, which they may get. If Hawaii wins, there's no chance that UF is left out. I'd say this: Cincy Wins: 60% UF vs OU 40% UT vs OU OU #1 in both scenarios Hawaii Wins: 80% OU vs UF 20% UT vs UF OU #1 40%. UF #1 60% Its going to be interesting.

Touchdown Hawaii 24-10

Hawaii got the ball inside the 20 on a pick going into the fourth quarter.

FWIW RE: Heisman Tim Tebow does NOT have the numbers that McCoy or Bradford has. However, he gets no numbers from running the option. The Big XII QBs run a lot of screens. Is there any reading on a screen? No not really. Tebows backs are average 8 yards a carry because of Tebows decision making on the speed and read options. These are Floridas screens. In reality, they DO close the gap between Tebow and the others statistically. That being said, Tebow has more playmaker than McCoy or Bradford, so you have to give them the award. It's not because they have better "real" numbers. They dont.