Mephistopheles

I must be the only not on the Loney and Kemp bandwagons. That said, we don't have the trade assets required to net both of them. Stop discussing it.

yeah but we could play the you owe us one angle for trachsel heres a legit offer: Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol, Ronny Cedeno, Felix Pie and one or two of {Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Sean Marshall, Tyler Colvin, Donald Veal, Mark Prior} for Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada. We could take Jay Payton off their hands too if they wanted. The Orioles probably won't trade both Bedard and Tejada in any deal. One of them will probably be gone this offseason, but with their current situation and the rising fan base of the local Nationals, they can't afford to trade away their two biggest drawing cards. Yes, Nick Markakis is probably the star of the future (albeit he isn't that good) but right now Bedard and Tejada are pretty much everything for them. They'd get a lot of talent in this trade, but I would not be shocked to see someone like the Dodgers trade Chad Billinglsey for Erik Bedard straight up. They can then deal Tejada to the Cubs for a combination of Hill and prospects/young players. There's really no realistic way we get either of them without including Rich Hill. In fact there's little chance the Cubs make any move through the trade market for an asset as good as Willis, Tejada, Crawford, Haren, Bedard, etc without including Rich Hill. Trading Hill in these deals will add the new player (who is better than Hill in all the cases) but at the same time creating a hole in the rotation and adding about ten to fifteen million to the payroll. I'm fairly certain we can do better by keeping Hill and spending that ten mil on the market than trading Hill and adding to the payroll.

Not only that, try thinking of the last good CF the Cubs have had. Brian McRae was alright The last good one was probably Rick Monday in the mid 70s iirc. using BR Adolfo Phillips was good for a year before Monday. Then you got Richie Ashburn. Man it's dry

Also not a big enough of a difference to warrent 10-15 million more per season. IMHO Let's see, 40 runs on defense, give or take. ARods about ten runs better on offense these days, give or take. So a 50 run difference isn't worth fifteen million to you? That's ludicrous.

If the discussions are including Hill, I would like to think we could get a real shortstop instead of Carl Crawford for him, but that's me.

Murton + Lefty Hitter = Better Production. If someone OPS's 1500 against lefties and 600 against righties, that's an 825 OPS. You seriously wouldnt be advocating the player to bat against righties because his production is better overall. Extreme case, obviously

Trading for Miguel Cabrera would be dumb. The discussions would start at Rich Hill, Soto, Sean Marshall, Matt Murton, Felix Pie and Tyler Colvin. From the Cubs point of view they should stop there, because even that deal would get outbid.

Which is fine. I still think that a good GM should be able to sell Gallagher and Marshall plus Cedeno. I still think that a good GM would be ale to get more than Gallagher and Marshall plus Cedeno. That proposal isn't feasible. You have to give up a proven MLB product to get a guy like Crawford. Marshall isn't that. Hill is. Although some of you aren't going to agree with the idea.

The Rays would prefer Cedeno over Patterson.

Maybe we can get a real shortstop for the second time in how many years? Ernie Banks last season as a SS?

hes a little better than murton because murton doesnt face lefties as much as he gets to face righties. matt murton cant play center at an above average rate. fukudome can. Fukudome's ~.295 EqA with above average defense the last five seasons puts him second only to Grady Sizemore. He's comparable to Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon (not this year) and is better than Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells. We're talking about a top five center fielder here if someone's smart and plays him there. As for the line, probably more of a .300/.375/.470 hitter.

not a discussion in this thread, but it relevant. fyis on average the translation of EqA to the US is .93. Hideki Matsui's EqA in Japan routinely was around usually around .330 topping out in the .350 range. That's translated to an average around .305 and a max around .330 in the US. That's what he's been here. Pretty damn accurate translation. Iwamura's EqA in Japan was almost always around .300 and always translated to the .280-.284 range. Guess what his EqA was? .284. Iwamura Kenji's EqA was usually around .290-.295 in Japan with the notable exception of his career mvp season. That translates to the mid .270s....his EqA in the us is .275. For the interested: Fukudome Year JPB --> MLB 2002 .311 --> .289 2003 .322 --> .299 2004 .305 --> .283 2005 .323 --> .301 2006 .350 --> .326 2007 .317 --> .294 For the even more interested, Kazuo Matsui: 1998 .287 --> .267 1999 .295 --> .274 2000 .295 --> .275 2001 .293 --> .273 2002 .316 --> .294 2003 .298 --> .277 He's obviously done worse than the translations, but the translations put his Japanese numbers at pretty a uninspiring as it is. The hype was unjustified. For the even more interested, Hideki Matsui (note im using 2007 PF on these and YG's home park was much more of a hitter park relative to the league when he played there, but I did no adjustments there so the translations are a bit high): 1998 .316 --> .294 1999 .326 --> .303 2000 .334 --> .311 2001 .332 --> .309 2002 .341 --> .317 Note: 50 HR season His five seasons in the US 2003 .279 - transition season... 2004 .316 2005 .305 2006 .310 2007 .301 For all intents and purposes, those are identical. Flat out identical.

That isn't what I said. I said they've been comparable, which is true. Zambrano's better, but not as much as you'd think. FIP isn't adjusted for league by the way (it should be). Once you get those adjustments in the system: FIP the last three years for Zambrano {3.79, 4.29, 4.58} and Silva's {4.04, 4.87, 4.42}. Zambrano's average the last three years is 4.22 and trending upwards. Silva's average the last three years is 4.44 with no clear trend. .2 runs, that's pretty comparable you know. You see, perhaps I did know what the hell I was talking about. It isn't my fault I see things like that and know their effects. Okay? He generally put up an OBP driven .285ish EqA in CF with above average defense and a 7 WARP. What's your point? I'm pretty sure that comparison is still the best one out there. Once his PECOTA card comes out, expect Kotsay to be near the top of his comps. Hey oh. I don't have time do go into this now....my NPB <--> MLB translation stuff isn't on this computer. Tomorrow afternoon I may have time run through the data quickly. I do however, have EqA for Japanese players the last few seasons and know that on average the translation of EqA to the US is .93. Hideki Matsui's EqA in Japan routinely was around usually around .330 topping out in the .350 range. That's translated to an average around .305 and a max around .330 in the US. That's what he's been here. Pretty damn accurate translation. Iwamura's EqA in Japan was almost always around .300 and always translated to the .280-.284 range. Guess what his EqA was? .284. Iwamura Kenji's EqA was usually around .290-.295 in Japan with the notable exception of his career mvp season. That translates to the mid .270s....his EqA in the us is .275. For the interested: Fukudome Year JPB --> MLB 2002 .311 --> .289 2003 .322 --> .299 2004 .305 --> .283 2005 .323 --> .301 2006 .350 --> .326 2007 .317 --> .294 For the even more interested, Kazuo Matsui: 1998 .287 --> .267 1999 .295 --> .274 2000 .295 --> .275 2001 .293 --> .273 2002 .316 --> .294 2003 .298 --> .277 He's obviously done worse than the translations, but the translations put his Japanese numbers at pretty a uninspiring as it is. The hype was unjustified. For the even more interested, Hideki Matsui (note im using 2007 PF on these and YG's home park was much more of a hitter park relative to the league when he played there, but I did no adjustments there so the translations are a bit high): 1998 .316 --> .294 1999 .326 --> .303 2000 .334 --> .311 2001 .332 --> .309 2002 .341 --> .317 Note: 50 HR season His five seasons in the US 2003 .279 - transition season... 2004 .316 2005 .305 2006 .310 2007 .301 For all intents and purposes, those are identical. Flat out identical. Now that we know that I, as always, know exactly what I am talking about, we can agree that my comparisons are valid. I mean does Badnews translations account for Fukudome playing in the npb equivalent of yellowstone? Of course not. I mean does Badnews translations take in account that on average hitters have a higher discipline in the US than they did in Japan? Of course not. Simply looking at three or four players to make an accurate gauge on the effect of switching is kinda dumb. You need to look at everything, build similarities, etc. It's not an easy task. The quick and dirty JEqA*.93 = MLBEQA is the best simple gauge.

I know this has already been debunked, but why on earth does no one factor Kaz Matsui, Kenji Johjima, and Iwamura into the translations? I can guess why - because it'll cause the numbers to go down and there goes the whole house of cards. As someone who has run translations on all the guys mentioned. Johjima and Iwamura nailed their expected production based on their Japanese numbers. Matsui did not, but he's an outlier. With the notable exception of Matsui, just about EVERY person in Japan who came over did roughly what they should have done based on their Japanese numbers. Generally the .93*NPBEQA is a spot on translation. That would put Fukudome somewhere in the .295-.300 EqA range. You're not in the position to say how something will translate. You really have no clue what you are talking about. Like I've said a dozen times. Fukudome's a little bit more than 2000-2004 Mark Kotsay

Jaxxis.. please list all 40 runs Manny gave his team with his bat this season. Can you do that? You can't because that number doesn't exsist. I love how people throw numbers our of thin air like that's the "official" number of runs he produced. I can recite a number for you.. two. The number of home runs Ramirez hit in close and late situations. I can recite for you another number.. six. The number of home runs Rodriguez had in those situations this year. Does that make Ramirez an inferior offensive player? Of course not, but two home runs does not make him perfect. As far as defense goes in left or right, I will gladly take the guy with a career OPS around 850 with gold glove caliber skills in left field over a guy who costs his team a single every fifth game in the outfield with an OPS around 900.

Tampa is famous for asking for the world. Tampa is famous for not caving in on their demands. If the Cubs want Crawford, I'm worried about what the Cubs will give up to get him. Considering how friendly Hendry is with his players (see Maddux for Izturis, 3 prospects for Pierre, 3 prospects for Tracshel and Jacque Jones for Omar Infante to name just a few), we need to stay very worried about this. What happened to the love affair they were having this offseason about making a big splash in the Japan market? After getting scared by that trade proposal, I'm sold on Fukudome. 1. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays need young pitching. 2. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays need a young shortstop. 3. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have excess outfielders and want to get rid of an expensive one. 4. The Chicago Cubs announce decision to move their closer into the rotation, effectively giving them 7 guys for 5 rotation spots. 5. The Chicago Cubs announce they're looking for a corner outfielder and are expanding their payroll to accommodate it. 6. The Chicago Cubs trade an outfielder. 7. The Chicago Cubs trade another outfielder 8. The Chicago Cubs trades for a young shortstop, effectively making a young SS with trade value expendable.

Even if it isn't done. The writing has been on the wall for awhile now. Should have seen it coming.

Yikes.

The difference between Manny and Rodriguez on offense is a handful of singles a season: TWELVE. Power and walks are pretty much identical. So yes, does the 12 extra singles Ramirez gets in a season make up for the FORTY runs worse he is on defense? You make the call. Clubhouse cancer? Are you serious? He's a good guy. He's not Sheffield. It's amazing how the NY Media can cloud someone's mind. I guess if they spew out enough crap it turns our brains to crap. ARod is nothing close to a clubhouse cancer. Would a cancer move away from a position where he won multiple gloves in the middle for his prime while someone takes SS who is reportedly a below average defender? Probably not. ARod did it just well. I've heard nothing but good things about Rodriguez the person. I guess you also think Mark Prior is a clubhouse cancer.

and you'd have a third place team, at best. yuck. So we'd go from having three guys with sub 4 eras to three guys who routinely have ERAs north of 5. Outstanding idea!

Then don't do the trade. It's not that hard. If their needs don't match up with ours, then the trade is going to hurt both parties so move on. It isn't rocket science.

Mannys decline scares me. We're also a National League team. We can't hide his aging mobility at DH (neither can Boston though).

lol at the Rich Hill, Ronny Cedeno and Matt Murton idea. The Cubs would go with who as the number five? I don't even want to know. Our pitching would suck next season. I think I TB deal is coming soon. They need a SS. We traded for a SS. Ronny Cedeno --> TB has to be in the works. Please be Pie and not Hill. It's not worth making the deal if we trade probably our best pitcher for what would be our fourth best offensive player who is no better than Matt Murton on offense. A guy in the trade...

LF is traditionally an offensive position because it's the second easiest real position to play. However, it is not the DH. You sucking in LF costs your team runs. Manny costs the Red Sox somewhere around 25-30 runs a year. The difference between Soriano and Ramirez in LF is somewhere around FORTY runs over a season. FORTY! Last season Manny Ramirez was 2 runs better than Soriano. He wasn't even forty runs better than Ryan Theriot last season. Defense matters.....even for a left fielder. Manny Ramirez makes Matt Murton look like Mays. I never said Rodriguez was good at 3B. 1. Shut up about errors. They are useless. 2. Rodriguez is fairly average at 3B. The difference between average defense at 3B and -25 defense in LF is about 35 runs or so. 3. Manny Ramirez has not been as good as Rodriguez on offense of late and over their career's they're pretty interchangeable. ARod eqad .350 2 of the last 3 years. Manny hasn't done that in five years. Mannys EqA was 302 this year. ARod hasn't had a season that bad since 1999. Career EqA: 329 to 323 not a big enough difference to account for Mannys brickwork in the OF

Fielding percentage for an outfielder? Are you serious? Manny doesn't get an error when his fat ass can't run down a ball my dead grandmother could run down.