Mephistopheles

Three times. And how many times have you watched Florida? Probably three times...and who was Florida playing in those three games? Probably LSU, Georgia and Kentucky.

No. Who said it was linear?

have you ever watched the cocktail party game? its split 50-50 easy.

If team # 28 beats team #29 in a close game....polls move #29 down...they shouldn't. This system won't move #29 down because of it (which is good). So UK losing to UGA and UT won't hurt their rankings too much. And it shouldn't. I'm betting they go 1-1 in those games though. They'll knock one off. Kentucky played and beat Louisville who ranks number 33 in predictor. South Carolina has two wins over top 30 teams. Colorado has one.

That's better. I'd like to see another BCS other than 2 ACC but I can't complain. Still...ok I will complain...8 home games and 4 away. 7 home games...4 away....1 neutral. how many top 25 teams play 5 roadies? (not many if any). This years Kansas team has four road games and a crap big xii schedule.

They're not a top ten team. They're probably not a top twenty team. They're probably a 20-30 team. They're just like Boston College was a few weeks ago, but BC had a better schedule. Let's see who they've played vs #69 6-4 Central Michigan vs #203 2-8 SE Louisiana vs #112 5-5 Toledo vs #173 0-9 Florida International @ #48 5-5 Kansas State vs #119 3-8 Baylor @ #56 5-6 Colorado @ #50 6-5 Texas A&M vs#59 5-6 Nebraska @ #39 5-5 Oklahoma State They haven't played or beaten a top 30 team. Florida has played: @ #2 LSU vs #12 Georgia @ #17 Kentucky vs #19 Tennessee vs #24 Auburn @ #30 South Carolina So they've played SIX opponents better than KUs best opponent. They're 3-3 in those games against top 30 opponents. Oh and #34 is FSU who theyll play. Oh and Vandy yes Vandy is equivalent to the Aggies. Did you know MISS STATE (!) is better than all but one of UKs opponents. Florida is 3-3 vs top 30 teams......Mizzou is 1-1 vs top 30 teams...WVU is 0-1....USC is 1-1. That 3-3 record is VERY good for their schedule. Those three loses were games where they had the lead late too. This Florida team is at least a top ten team. By the end of the season when people realize how much Mizzou and Kansas suck they'll be top five.

And for those who care, Florida's gonna get respectful non conference games in 08 -- a season where they will undoubtedly be the preseason number one and will probably lose 2 games and STILL be the best team bc everyone facing the same schedule would lose 3-4 games. Florida's 2008 Schedule 8/30 - vs Hawaii 9/6 - vs Miami (Fl) 9/20 - @ Tennessee 9/27 - vs Ole Miss 10/4 - @ Arkansas 10/11 - vs LSU 10/25 - vs Kentucky 11/1 - vs Georgia (at Jacksonville) 11/8 - @ Vanderbilt 11/15 - vs South Carolina 11/22 - vs The Citadel 11/29 - @ Florida State 12/6 - SEC CHAMP* Yeah that schedule's brutal, both non conference and conference.

I'll make a wager that Auburn will beat a Pac-10, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, ACC school in their bowl game. Who wants it?..free month of premium.. One of the last place teams in the Big East already beat them in Auburn so it has to one of the other conferences turn. lol..true, true. I assure you I'd love to see an Auburn - Big East matchup in the bowl game. Did you watch the Auburn - S. Florida game, Cuse? Edit - want to add that I do believe the Big East is still underrated by most across the country. However, Auburn has now lost 4 games, and they should be matched up with middle of the conference team from another major conference. I think they'll do quite well with that type of matchup..even a rematch with S. Florida. Honestly what it shows that there isn't that much of a difference between conferences and just crowning the SEC the king and letting it's teams move up with more losses than other conferences is wrong. That's my whole point and that's what bugs me along with the BE getting the shaft on the other end of the spectrum. SFlor getting no votes while Auburn getting a bunch just goes to show you an example of why I feel this way. If you look at every good BE team other than WV, the team from the BE that has as good a record or even better at times, has less votes than any other BCS conference. Cincy, UConn and SFlorida all are affected by the good ole boys voting system. What I also don't understand is why Kansas isn't number one but Ohio State who played a worse schedule when they were voted 1 was. Again as Dew pointed out before, it's the name first and then the schedule according to voters. This is why Florida gets so much respect. Is Florida a good team, absolutely. Could they be undefeated if they had the same schedule as Kansas, quite possible but other teams could say that too. Kansas has 2 to 3 three tough games to go before they could be 13-0 and I just don't see why the press and coaches won't give them the same benefit they gave a no loss OSU or the one loss teams. There is a huge difference between the SEC and the Big XII/Big Ten. Florida is a much better team than Kansas. This is pretty damn obvious. Saragin's ratings fall apart when your SOS is weak, he admits to this (all such systems do). Floridas non conference is weak this year. The best game will be an alright FSU team, but they play a tough schedule in conference. They got LSU and Auburn, arguably the two best teams in the West. Kansas missed Oklahoma and Texas, the two best teams in the XIIS. I cant even begin to describe this... Kansas pretty much will play 2 real games to get in (oh yeah they havent played EITHER yet) 1. vs Mizzou 2. vs OU Florida had: 1. vs Tennessee 2. vs LSU 3. vs Auburn 4. vs Kentucky 5. vs Georgia 6. vs South Carolina 7. vs LSU (2) Florida got through 1-6 at 3-3. Kansas has played NO ONE as good as those six teams. Kansas has played NO ONE as good as Floridas final opponent, unlisted Florida State.

They should try losing less games if they want to be in the top ten then. So you would rather them go 10-0 against the 97th best schedule than 7-3 against the best schedule? why don't we wait till the end of the season before we criticize KU's overall schedule. Their SOS will climb considerably if they beat OU/Mizzou. And people act like we purposely scheduled 11 patsies. Coming into the season, Nebraska, OSU, aTm, and KSU were all supposed to be formidable opponents. And when we scheduled Toledo and CMU, they were bowl teams. Toledo had a 10-win season. And for what it's worth, I think we could play with Florida. You act like they're some kind of juggernaut. If they were really that good, they'd be a one-loss team like LSU. I already know they wont beat OU and Mizzou. The fact is they have played a schedule equivalent to the schedule of Florida Atlantic and UAB's. If UAB or FAU were undefeated today where would they rank? Probably the same place as Hawaii. Kansas isnt good. You guys arent getting the probabilistic distribution of wins

oh man i wish i didnt have to go right now. wait until i get back! Ill make a great point as only I can

They should try losing less games if they want to be in the top ten then. So you would rather them go 10-0 against the 97th best schedule than 7-3 against the best schedule?

You get more value for Jones if you trade him before you sign Fukudome not to mention we lower the amount of teams looking for COs. It's entirely possible that the Cubs have five COs on their list and Fukudome's at the top and theyre confident they'll get one.

hes got the skills to knock 15-20 hrs and a .260-.270 EqA really Khalil Greene isnt a poor comparison. Not great but a decent one. We also dont get Matsui for three years since we did this.

Florida is 7-3 against the best schedule in the nation. They ought to be in the top ten guys.

well this prediction is already wrong

No. So he doesn't have the skills of Ichiro? Why in the world do these media guys compare them like that then? Well....since they are both Japanese let's just group them together. What player in MLB is he most like? Because he's got great bat control like Ichiro. He does, however, have enough speed to be an above average defensive centerfielder. I don't like the Raul Ibanez comparison. He's somewhere between Grady Sizemore lite and Mark Kotsay 2000-04 (basically Grady Sizemore lite)

FYI: Fukudome can play centerfield.

No.

http://www.japanball.com/news.phtml?id=11151

Weis has two top 10 recruiting classes already and the no. 1 ranked class for 2008. Ty had one top 10 class out of three and his last two were the two worst in ND history. Weis has shown a willingness to change assistant coaches when they show they aren't capable. Ty refused to fire Kent Baer, his defensive coordinator, no matter how absurdly bad the defense was. Ty didn't play Jeff Samardzija for two years. He played Ryan Grant over Julius Jones in 2003 - Grant infamously had more carries than Jones in the Pitt game where Jones broke the ND record for rushing yards in a game. Weis has eight more years on his contract, so firing him would be financially irresponsible. (Stupid to give him the extension in the first place, I know.) By the way, where's the bellyaching about Florida firing Ron Zook 2.5 years into his contract, with a better record than Willingham? Oh, Zook is white and Florida is currently winning so that makes it ok. Florida has been good since Urban Meyer took over and they never had a good year under Zook. Keep in mind, they won a national championship under Meyer. Weis has, granted, had less talent but hasn't won even a BCS bowl game. I'm not supporting Weis being fired, just that the comparison with Meyer is completely invalid. Also, Zook was the sacrificial lamb for a legend. Whoever followed Spurrier had to be just as successful or he would have been fired. That's how it goes following a legend, fair or not. Are you trying to say that Bob Davie isnt a legend? No, he's trying to say that George O'Leary isn't a legend.

Tell that to Louisville.

It's more accurate of a predictor than not using margin of victory. It may not be politically correct, but it should be used. Most sophisticated models like that actually don't take pure points over. They scale down as you blow out a team. Others simply cutoff at 3 TDs or something. However, these modifications generally make the model less accurate, so that arguments not very effective. Accurate for what, prediction? I don't see how that could be useful in football with its short schedules. Accurate prediction for when two teams play a game. Sure its not perfectly accurate but its considerably more accurate than subjective methods and the polls. I over simplified the system so the general idea can be digested. Yes, it does have a component of where the games are played. The system doesn't value one game as much as you think. Those are just examples of numerous paths. I could have built the paths that go through Auburn --> USF --> UCF --> Texas --> OU --> etc. Every path is accounted for. No ones saying theyre perfect, they are, however, more scientific and accurate than whatever the spine tingling sensation causes you to rank teams in certain ways. This is the best way to analyze conferences. No doubt about it. Everyone talks about saying such and such conference doesnt play well out of conference....this system quantifies the argument and holds NO BIAS. NO BIAS WHATSOEVER towards a certain set of teams like the sec.

dorrell?

It's more accurate of a predictor than not using margin of victory. It may not be politically correct, but it should be used. Most sophisticated models like that actually don't take pure points over. They scale down as you blow out a team. Others simply cutoff at 3 TDs or something. However, these modifications generally make the model less accurate, so that arguments not very effective.

I was gonna do a standard score based off point differential when I got the chance