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imb

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Everything posted by imb

  1. I'm looking at the line items of a P&L for an adjacent organization: a team that was operating poorly -- low spend/cost, low revenue. Because we know, for example, how cheap the Marlins were on marketing and promotions or anemic on attendance vis a vis the Cubs, we can attempt to fill in the gaps between that organization and the Cubs to come up with a reasonable estimate of what we think the Cubs brought home last year. The Marlins had low attendance. We know what the Cubs attendance was! The Marlins had low ticket prices. We know what the Cubs ticket prices were! The Marlins didn't pay their players. We know what the Cubs paid theirs! The Marlins didn't renovate their ballpark. We know the Cubs did! I mean, or we can just sit around talking about the Cubs have a higher valuation now as if that contributes to the organization's cashflows. Or we can say none of this matters because the Ricketts family can always sell a few houses to increase payroll. the marlins had no ancillary sources of income; the cubs have dozens - 30 -
  2. you're being made fun of not because there's some ignorance of the fact that you have to spend money to raise your valuation, you're being made fun of because you are looking at the finances of a team who operated as poorly as possible on purpose to excuse nonspending by an ownership group whose every decision for 10 years has been aimed at creating a money printing machine.
  3. guys maybe amazon can't pay their employees $20 an hour, we know this because my local grocery store can't
  4. look guys, it's reasonable to believe that the ownership group who saw the value of their investment almost quadruple is actually broke because notorious liar cheapskate jeffrey loria ran his team, the historically poorly operated marlins, at a loss for a couple years in the worst baseball market in the league so he could sell the team at a massive profit.
  5. It's not directly comparable, but you have to think in line items and ratios and decide how their revenues and expenses would relate to ours. I mean, of course the Cubs bring in more revenue than the 2009 Marlins, ffs. We have discussed the Forbes estimate of ~$450m in 2018 revenue which is about 3.3x the $135m the 2009 Marlins brought in. With that said, the Cubs expenses are a hell of a lot larger, too. For example: Florida's baseball payroll was 5x smaller. Their FO staff was probably far smaller and worse paid than the 2018 Cubs FO. To your point, they were running a dirt cheap operation: they probably didn't invest much in their ballpark, marketing/promotions, or non-FO operations staff. And we know that over the past 5 years, The Cubs have an (almost) renovated stadium, a new spring training facility, a new dominican facility, etc. It's unclear whether these projects were financed over time to lessen the cost impact in a single year, but that would be the fiscally prudent thing to do. I am hopeful that the development in the neighborhood brings a ton of revenue that the ownership puts back into the team. I also don't know the mechanics of how it was financed or the breakeven analysis that was done for any of those projects. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the hotel is not printing much more money than its burned to date given the upfront costs. the cubs, as an entity, are worth 3-4x now what they were a decade ago. this comparison is completely faulty and meaningless.
  6. what he didn't say: our projections have us in first place what he did say: our projections have us in the right place (third place) we suck again
  7. the freaking marlins and jeffrey loria are not some analogue to the modern-day cubs, come on for one the marlins entire operation is essentially a AA team compared to the operation the cubs have with the wrigleyville area and their monetization of it. Not to mention you're comparing baseball-mad chicago with freaking miami and it's 100 percent naive to take any financial information about loria at face value. His entire operation was to strip that thing down as cheap as possible so he could sell and make a massive profit. running at some minor loss for a few years was a feature not a bug.
  8. we're going to win 100 games again [tweet] [/tweet] i knew my moronic ass would turn as soon as i saw one video of KB swinging a bat and here we are nl central favorites baby
  9. we're going to win 100 games again
  10. hey let us know what the offer is before he signs it lol ok "wow this horsefeathers is GENIUS, look out stearns there's a new chess player in town"
  11. Off topic, but 'dolt' is such an underrated insult. there was an old old old old old school copy editor i used to work with who would read headlines out loud to himself. every time he would see a headline he didn't like he would read it out loud and add "you dolts." It was great
  12. god listening to buster olney's podcast now and they're doing it again "is this going to make the padres contenders (this year)? Nope! I dont get it!" there are literally 9 other years on this contract you dolts
  13. kind of weird seeing all the "why are the padres doing this they're not in their window yet" takes. like ... how do you expect to get in a window guys
  14. im taking the over on that happ/almora/schwarber OF war
  15. The answer is always the one elite guy when these questions come up Even if the non-elite guys are on shorter deals? Harper has averaged around 5 fWAR over the past 3 seasons Keuchel/Kimbrel/Marwin have combined to average around 7.5 fWAR over the past 3 season. And you wouldn't have any on the hook for a 10 year commitment. what an oft-injured LHP post-30, a closer, and a utility guy have done on average over the past 3 years is not really that relevant in terms of what you can expect going forward and even if you think harper is *just* a 5 war guy every season going forward, that means to hit the 7.5 war mark all you need to find 1.25 WAR out of a couple league minimum guys in the pen and rotation. so you'd much rather have harper, who has a 5-9 war range and then keep fishing to find some cheap young guys than a trio of dudes who *might at best* add up to 7.5 war
  16. what kind of question is this lol
  17. i hate him more than any other player living or dead, even racist murderer ty cobb
  18. i have gone back and forth 20 times in the last 12 months on whether i think machado is great or not and then one day i realized that it didn't matter. the only thing that matters is i for sure did not want to be on the hook for $300 million for him (but like the piece of trash i am i would have talked myself into it if we signed him)
  19. padres are gonna cycle out their current shitty uniforms after this season and go brown again in 2020, so not only will the team be relevant but they will look good too
  20. totally did not realize that ken williams was still the white sox gm. how is that possible
  21. tatis, urias, mejia, paddack will all likely be up this year, followed by Gore next year if he's healthy all 2018. This was a very smart move by the padres
  22. im pissed at myself but im excited for this god damn season like an idiot
  23. He’s ours
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