That’s why I think the blackjack analogy is apt. “If he is a superstar for three years and opts out, great!” Is like saying “I bet $10 on a 50/50 bet, and got back $15, great!” Opt-outs chop a chunk off the high end of expected value for the team, which drives down the average expected value. And yes, that can be worth it if you get concessions elsewhere in the contract, but just because you and I get that doesn’t mean everyone does. yeah but how it actually works in a baseball sense is you can: * bet $10 on a 50/50 bet and if you win you get back $15 * or not bet at all. there is no table where you can bet $10 on a 50/50 bet and get back $20. So what do you do.