John Lackey and Jason Marquis are probably the top free agent starters. For a team that needs a top starter,a 3/30 plus incentives for Harden is not that big of a gamble. If he would have been healthy his whole career,he would be looking at a long term deal. Examples would be Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Carl Pavano, Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito etc. I feel an 8 year deal for a pitcher thats been healthy is a bigger risk than giving a guy like Harden 3 years.