Monco

Then don't get Bradley. If you have to downgrade in one spot to moderately upgrade in another, it's not worth it. Pursue a Hermida or Scott or Sammy Sosa, but don't trade a valuable chip in order to moderately upgrade. Obviously he likes Fontenot and feels better trading DeRosa and taking a chance on Fontenot being able to make the leap from backup to starter than he feels about the chances of Fukudome or Hoff being able to put up respectable numbers in RF. I hope this all leads to Peavy, but even if it really is just a money thing I agree with the move. I would rather have Fontenot / Bradley / Fukudome at 2B/RF/CF than the alternative of DeRosa / Fukudome / Pie. It is just a bit of a shock to the system if that is the way it turns out because the Cubs have not done anything other than add payroll for the last couple years so a move like the DeRosa trade primarily to dump salary takes some getting used to. That's not the choice the Cubs would have likely gone with. The two options would have either been: Fontenot at 2nd, DeRosa at RF, Fukudome in CF or Fontenot at 2nd, Bradley+Johnson in RF (Johnson for the 40-80 games that Bradley doesn't play, Fukudome in CF Would you rather have DeRosa for 140 games in RF and Marquis in the 5th spot or Bradley for 100, Vizcaino in the bullpen, and 3 decent pitching prospects? Personally I think the Cubs are better off with the former. If the Cubs get another upgrade other than Bradley it makes more sense. But is Bradley really a more valuable RF than DeRosa this year? Plus if you kept DeRosa you could have kept an extra OF bat for the bench that could hit instead of having to pay Miles to be a backup IF (because DeRosa would essentially be your 2nd backup IF even while starting in the OF). So with DeRosa you have about the same offense over the course of the year, a better starting rotation, a better bench, and possibly a better bullpen (because it could be argued that Vizcaino hurts the pen more than helps it). Trading him should only have been done to get talent that could be used to upgrade somewhere else. Removing DeRosa's salary isn't much of a help because DeRosa was being underpaid so much. Cmon now, we are now counting the loss of Marquis from the rotation as a downgrade? And we are assuming DeRosa repeats his '08 career year but Bradley will be hurt for a significant portion? It is just as easy to say Marquis would wind up in long relief and DeRosa would wind up regressing and hurt overall RF production. I'm actually not assuming that DeRosa repeats his 08. I'm looking at around an .800 OPS next year for him (or somewhere between his 06 and 07). Yes, the loss of Marquis would hurt the rotation. 180-200 innings of mediocre pitching becomes more valuable the more injury prone the rest of your starting rotation is. If Marquis is gone, that means Marshall is starting. It is unlikely that Marshall throws over 150 innings between his injury history, a tendency to have a dead arm, and the fact that he's never done it before, not even in the minor leagues. Harden could throw anywhere between 50-160 innings (I see anything over 160 as unlikely as the Cubs are going to back up him at times, skip a couple starts, take him out early etc. to protect his arm). Those innings would go to Marshall but now have to go to somebody else. Then of course you have Z who has a decent shot of missing 2-3 starts over the season. So that's somewhere between 90-260 innings that you have to make up. The Cubs have options for starters behind Marshall, but the further you go the more you're both hurting the bullpen by taking them out of there, and also you have an increasing possibility they'll blow up and be absolutely terrible out of the rotation. It's just not as simple as comparing Marquis and Marshall. Marquis leaving pushes everybody a slot up and makes the rotation more injury prone while removing pitching depth from the system at the same time. That's a bad combination, and the depth would very likely not be sufficient. Marquis was there every 5th and was one of the best number fives around. Remember 2003 with Shawn Estes? Did the 2006 Cubs had pitching depth? Angel Guzman Rich Hill Greg Maddux Carlos Marmol Sean Marshall Juan Mateo Wade Miller Ryan O'Malley Mark Prior Glendon Rusch Jae Kuk Ryu Les Walrond Jerome Williams Kerry Wood Carlos Zambrano

why are we thinking it's 3/30 now? Thats what i've seen mentioned. If not, what ?

In the past,many people have said the the reason the Cubs lose is because they won't spend money. I've argued with them that they were wrong. I've said the Cubs have spent the money,but have made poor decisions in how they spend it. 3/30 for a part time player.....

Yes, and he maintained it all season (single playoff game at the end aside). That's not say he'll regress, but again, to say he's likely to fully regress to a Marquis-like season would be a really impressive downfall. 13 wins,era 4.00-4.60 ?

Bringing in Lou,Lilly Marquis etc. was a big part also. Carlos Lee at 6/100 would have worked also.

We need Alfonseca back too.

Peavy is a major risk. elbow soreness last year 3.80 career road era-pitched 1/2 his games at Petco long term contract Then add in what they have to give up get him. The players they would have to give up could be sent elsewhere to upgrade short,second ,RF etc. A few months ago we were raving about Z,Harden,Dempster,and Lilly as a top 4. Do they have doubts about Harden lasting the season and Dempster pitching like last year ? Is Peavy the missing piece to get the World Series? If they had him last year would they have won it all? (No) Peavy seems like a luxury and a risk. Sometimes the best deals are the ones that aren't made.

How about a no trade clause?

This seems strictly about money and hitting lefty. How much more for Blanco?

The hits and home runs per inning were down from his norm also.

Only 6 more to go :thumbsup:

The space between how excellent Dempster pitched last year and how Jason Marquis usually pitches over a season is pretty gigantic. I agree he almost certainly won't repeat last year, but to just assume he'll plunge all the way down to Marquis' level is incredibly pessimistic. Dempster and Marquis both have a 4.55 career era. Marquis career 198 starts 79 wins,Dempster 195 starts 76 wins.Marquis has averaged 13 wins a year for the last 5. Dempster was a regular starter from 98-03. Only once in that span was his era under 4.50. Dempsters history suggests that if he makes 30 starts,he'll pitch more innings than Marquis. But,Marquis making 30 starts is more likely. So your basis for this argument is wins and ERA? Partially.Last year was a career year for him. It was a contract year and he was able to keep the walks down (until the playoffs). If his walks per inning reverts to his usual standard,most likely his era will rise,win total will drop etc. The playoffs was only one game for him and clearly he was trying to be too perfect and that threw him off his game. I think from the way he pitched and what he said last year he figured out that he has to pound the strike zone and get ahead of hitters early in order to be successful. I don't think it is unreasonable to believe that a guy could figure out as he matures a better approach to pitching and that could make him more effective. Hope so.

The space between how excellent Dempster pitched last year and how Jason Marquis usually pitches over a season is pretty gigantic. I agree he almost certainly won't repeat last year, but to just assume he'll plunge all the way down to Marquis' level is incredibly pessimistic. Dempster and Marquis both have a 4.55 career era. Marquis career 198 starts 79 wins,Dempster 195 starts 76 wins.Marquis has averaged 13 wins a year for the last 5. Dempster was a regular starter from 98-03. Only once in that span was his era under 4.50. Dempsters history suggests that if he makes 30 starts,he'll pitch more innings than Marquis. But,Marquis making 30 starts is more likely. So your basis for this argument is wins and ERA? Partially.Last year was a career year for him. It was a contract year and he was able to keep the walks down (until the playoffs). If his walks per inning reverts to his usual standard,most likely his era will rise,win total will drop etc.

Sorianos production at 17 million is overpaying. Adam Dunn,Bobby Abreau etc. wouldn't command 17 million a year. I doubt anyone would take him without the Cubs eating at least half of his contract. They would probably get a couple of mediocre prospects in return. It would essentially be a salary dump.

The space between how excellent Dempster pitched last year and how Jason Marquis usually pitches over a season is pretty gigantic. I agree he almost certainly won't repeat last year, but to just assume he'll plunge all the way down to Marquis' level is incredibly pessimistic. Dempster and Marquis both have a 4.55 career era. Marquis career 198 starts 79 wins,Dempster 195 starts 76 wins.Marquis has averaged 13 wins a year for the last 5. Dempster was a regular starter from 98-03. Only once in that span was his era under 4.50. Dempsters history suggests that if he makes 30 starts,he'll pitch more innings than Marquis. But,Marquis making 30 starts is more likely.

:roll: :banghead: Im not sure where there getting the Miles for leadoff theory. His career .289 avg. looks good for a leadoff hitter, but the career .329 OPB leaves much to be desired, especially for a spot whose job it is just to get on base. Wow, hes got the same career obp as Soriano !

Who's paying Gregg $5 mil? ??? Hendry loves ex-Marlins?

Miles is not really a bad pickup, hes not an upgrade though. Unless they feel hes even more versatile than Derosa because of his pitching.

Not one of those replacements is accurate in expected roles, so your notion of downgrading across the board is wrong. Replace Wood with Marmol at closer (even). Replace Howry with Gregg at set-up (even). Replace Edmonds with Fukudome in CF (moderate downgrade). Replace Fukudome with Bradley in RF (notable upgrade). Replace Marquis with Marshall at 5th starter (slight upgrade). Replace DeRosa with Fontenot at 2B (slight downgrade). Replace Fontenot with Miles on bench (slight downgrade). Replace Jon Lieber with Vizcaino in relief (moderate downgrade). That's how I see it. That's extremely flawed logic. It doesn't matter what the specific roles are... Wood was essentially replaces by Gregg. You say we replaced Wood with Marmol at closer, but then we say we replaced Howry as a setup man with Gregg? Uhh, no. We're replacing Marmol with Gregg, not Howry, and that's a significant downgrade. The rest of your downgrade list just doesn't Make sense. You say how we replace Marquis with Marshall, but you don't acknowledge the lack of depth, or the loss of Marshall in the pen. You say how we replace DeRosa with Fontenot, but you don't mention DeRosa's value as a guy that can play anywhere, which will be very significant when Bradley gets hurt. Now instead of sliding DeRosa to RF and giving Fontenot more at-bats, we're suddenly giving more at-bats to Aaron Miles and other similar players. That big, especially when you look at the amount of time that Bradley misses each year. Dempsters 2009 will most likely be a downgrade from his 2008. Of course,his contract has made all the salary dumps necessary.

I can explain that ... contract year.

Not one of those replacements is accurate in expected roles, so your notion of downgrading across the board is wrong. Replace Wood with Marmol at closer (even). Replace Howry with Gregg at set-up (even). Replace Edmonds with Fukudome in CF (moderate downgrade). Replace Fukudome with Bradley in RF (notable upgrade). Replace Marquis with Marshall at 5th starter (slight upgrade). Replace DeRosa with Fontenot at 2B (slight downgrade). Replace Fontenot with Miles on bench (slight downgrade). Replace Jon Lieber with Vizcaino in relief (moderate downgrade). That's how I see it. If so,who replaces what Marmol and Marshall did last year? Really Gregg replaces Wood as a downgrade ,Vizcaino replaces Howry. If Marshall replaces Marquis,who replaces what Marshall did as a spot starter and lefty out of the pen? If Samardzija is the 5,who replaces him as a setup ? Can he really be considered an upgrade over Marquis at this point ?

Batting DLee first would prevent him from breaking the record for most dp's in a season. Soriano's power numbers and low obp suggest he should probably be batting sixth.(we know that'll never happen though,because his contract numbers suggest he can hit wearever he wants). If Aaron Miles is such a great leadoff hitter,why are the Cards letting him go ?

Yes. I have questioned the signing because I believe he won't pitch at last years level. I'm guessing his numbers will be closer to Marquis' numbers. Last year was a career year. (Funny how that happened in a contract year). The money they're paying him is causing them to have to unload contracts(Wood,Marquis,DeRosa) to bring in others. They could have let him walk and gotten compensation. They could have used the money and offered Wood arbitration. If he refused,they would have gotten compensation for him also. I believe replacing Kerry Wood with Kevin Gregg is weakening the pen. Kevin Gregg seems to be more of a replacement for Bob Howry.

I don't really understand how misplays by CF and SS matter more than misplays by LF and RF. Errors are only a part of defense. How about Pie or Fukodome going into the gap to take a sure double away ? They're saving runs and shortening an inning by getting an out.Extra outs affect the pitching staff. Adam Dunn may drive in and score more runs ,but how many will he cost through the season. Pulling him for a late inning defensive replacement backfires when the bullpen blows a lead. Hes out of the game in the extra innings and one of your bench players is being used.

They should show patience and let him play. His defense makes up for his lack of hitting at this point.