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Sammy Sofa

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Everything posted by Sammy Sofa

  1. Sammy Sofa
    Unreal. This is an 19 year old Cubs prospect with a 1.151 OPS. In his first professional season. EDIT: 1.284 OPS. Can we put this into context for a second? Has this kind of crushery been duplicated in the past by someone at a similar age/stage of their career for us? 2004 Dopriak in low A (Lansing) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I think Dopriak was 20 years old in his 2nd season. One year older, one level up. Similar. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk And even then Vogelbach is about .200 points up on what Dopirak's OPS ended up being that year. Nuts.
  2. Sammy Sofa
    It's not necessarily all that arbitrary based on the idea that this can be attributed to the new FO taking a different approach to him (personally I don't think it's much coincidence that you saw this change and then Jaramillio was gone shortly thereafter), but whatever.
  3. Sammy Sofa
    Basically sneaky is now the King of NSBB.
  4. Sammy Sofa
    A franchise player is a really, really valuable player. An excellent SS is a really, really valuable player.
  5. Sammy Sofa
    Castro's last 38 games: 8.2% BB, 13.3% K, .207/.272/.352 (.210 babip) Castro's previous 72 games: 1.9% BB, 17.0% K, .304/.317/.445 (.347 babip) honestly, a .310 babip makes that a great line; i actually feel much better about his offense going forward now than i did when he was flailing at everything but hitting .300 Excellent.
  6. Sammy Sofa
    The rest is cool, but RBI's as a stat suck butt.
  7. Sammy Sofa
    Nobody is excited about Steve Clevenger. Not even Steve Clevenger.
  8. Sammy Sofa
    Go, man, go!
  9. Sammy Sofa
    Hey, if he can be at least a 6-7 WAR player, OK, MAYBE I'll like him.
  10. Sammy Sofa
    RBI's? Come on.
  11. Sammy Sofa
    Hey, at least your expectations are totally reasonable.
  12. Sammy Sofa
    Then I'm not being very clear. Forecasting is all about predicting probable outcomes based on all the information you have at hand. The most recent information has to be weighted most heavily (including whether there are significant causal factors at play). Starlin taking an apparent step back in most important hitting categories significantly reduces his projections. Based on his performance history and age, he is still very likely to have a very good career and be really productive throughout his prime. But he is less likely to have a HOF-type career and it also increases his potential to flame relatively early. Understood; I just don't place as much trust into the projections as you do, especially given his ability and who is running this team.
  13. Sammy Sofa
    "Prime years" are generally agreed to start, what, 24 or 25?
  14. Sammy Sofa
    Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered? There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable. Started out as a top 5 player at their position for two years, had a hiccup where they were only slightly above average at their position, and the never recovered? At a position like SS? Garry Templeton is the closest example I can think of, and even he was productive for 5-7 years before dropping off. Edgar Renteria had a fairly short period of being near the best at his position as well, but it was never so early on in his career. 1) If you are going to limit the examples to those particular criteria, there won't be a lot of people to list on either side of the argument. 2) For the love of repetition, I'm not saying Castro is going to go into the toilet next year. I'm still saying he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime. I think that's the main sticking point; that you're talking about him like this year has all but locked him in to "only" being "really good."
  15. Sammy Sofa
    Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered? There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable. How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages? Not a perfect comp and injuries had something to do with it, but this is one I never liked seeing on Castro's otherwise amazing comp lists: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml Yeah, that's bugged me, too.
  16. Sammy Sofa
    It's one thing for them to get destroyed on the field, but I mean 3 errors in one inning, other errors, and mental breakdowns. Fundamentally I would like to see an example of a worse game played. I'm fairly confident the Cubs have had worse games than 5 errors and a single bad send by the 1B coach. The 1B coach isn't even supposed to be guiding him at that point. Yes, I know. I'm still not going to declare this the worst Cubs game I've ever seen in 30 years.
  17. Sammy Sofa
    It's one thing for them to get destroyed on the field, but I mean 3 errors in one inning, other errors, and mental breakdowns. Fundamentally I would like to see an example of a worse game played. I'm fairly confident the Cubs have had worse games than 5 errors and a single bad send by the 1B coach.
  18. Sammy Sofa
    Counter examples don't make it right. Should I list all the players who started off looking promising, had a hiccup and never recovered? There are more of those, btw, they're just less memorable. How many of them were as talented/touted and successful as Castro? And at what ages?
  19. Sammy Sofa
    Annoyingly bad.
  20. Sammy Sofa
    There is no possible way that a long term fan of the Cubs could think this is the worst game they've seen from them.
  21. Sammy Sofa
    Yeah, but that's part of the great thing about having a 22-year-old. To be frankly honest, I don't give a [expletive] if it skews the predictions right now given the ability he's displayed and the huge amount of time we're talking about. Absolutely. That's why I'd still say he's going to be a really good player throughout his prime. Or a great one. It just seems like you're placing way too much weight on his struggles this year.
  22. Sammy Sofa
    Well, Castro in the game today seems to be trying to singlehandedly destroy the support he's getting in regards to baserunning and defense.
  23. Sammy Sofa
    Yeah, but that's part of the great thing about having a 22-year-old. To be frankly honest, I don't give a [expletive] if it skews the predictions right now given the ability he's displayed and the huge amount of time we're talking about.
  24. Sammy Sofa
    I'd argue he's an overall better baserunner this year. Why? Totally unscientific eye test. The Cubs as a whole have improved in this area and I'm lumping him into that because of his ability.
  25. Sammy Sofa
    Are you talking to me? I'm saying he still projects to be a really good player throughout his prime. But that this season (on offense) has been disastrous compared to what was hoped for as progression for a 22 year old that was on a HOF track. This isn't really a thing. I mean, yes, you expect/hope for continual improvement, but to act like an offensive hiccup at age 22 of a player like this is a "disaster" is just ridiculous. How well do you understand forecasting? btw - Just because ARod had a blip in his improvement doesn't mean it's a bad thing when it happens to someone else. So what's your specific concern? What is your reason for thinking that this is indicative of some kind of continuing trend or career definition?
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